Paper Presentation Mohan Kumar

FORECASTING OF ARRIVALS AND PRICES OF POTATO IN BANGALORE MARKET MOHAN KUMAR, T.L. MUNIRAJAPPA, R. SURENDRA, H.S. AND VENKATA REDDY, T.N. PRESENTED BY:-

Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

OBJECTIVES ,[object Object],[object Object]

MATERIALS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Stationary ,[object Object],[object Object]

MAIN STEPS IN BOX-JENKINS ARIMA MODEL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

1) Identification of the model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

2) Estimation of parameters ,[object Object],Fundamentally two ways of getting estimates parameters Trial and error : Examine many different values and choose set of values that minimizes the sum of squares residual Iterative method : Choose a preliminary estimate and let a computer program refine the estimate iteratively

II) Akaike Information Coefficient (AIC) criteria is used to determine both the differencing order (d, D) required to attain stationary and the appropriate number of AR and MA parameters 3) Diagnostic checking of the model I) Ljung and Box (1978) ‘Q’ statistic h = Maximum lag considered n = Number of observation r k = ACF for lag k m =p+ q= Number of parameters to be estimated Q is distributed approximately as a Chi-square statistic with (h-m) degree of freedom.

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(1- δ p B)(1- Φ P B)(1-B d ) (1-B D )Y t =C+ (1-  q B) (1- Θ Q B) e t

The accuracy of forecasts for both Ex-ante and Ex-post is tested 1) Mean square error (MSE) 2) Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) 3) Theils U coefficient Where, = Actual values = Predicted values

RESULTS Potato Arrivals Autocorrelation plots for Potato arrivals after taking d=D=1

Partial autocorrelation plots for Potato arrivals after taking d=D=1

Tentatively identified models for Potato arrivals Model Q-statistic Degrees of freedom(df) Akaike Information Coefficient ( 1 1 1 ) (2 1 2) 18.09 19 2357.29 ( 1 1 1 ) (1 1 2) 18.53 20 2356.81 ( 1 1 1 ) (1 1 1) 19.76 21 2357.52 ( 1 1 1 ) (1 1 3) 18.90 19 2357.32 ( 0 1 1 ) (1 1 2) 21.20 21 2357.13 (1 1 1 ) (2 1 0) 18.07 21 2355.35 ( 1 1 1 ) (2 1 1) 18.71 20 2356.56

Actual and forecasted values for arrivals of Potato (Qts) Months Actual value Forecasted value Months Actual value Forecasted value Apr-07 180,730 218,805 Apr-08 - 144,851 May 171,207 177,026 May - 179,866 Jun 206,734 163,372 Jun - 182,840 Jul 128,501 152,538 Jul - 131,842 Aug 313,006 336,101 Aug - 283,670 Sep 411,748 358,521 Sep - 323,039 Oct 187,945 279,956 Oct - 208,778 Nov 126,790 152,987 Nov - 125,929 Dec 138,449 146,431 Dec - 125,711 Jan-08 137,870 173,380 Jan-09 - 151,543 Feb 158,944 168,181 Feb - 148,849 Mar 133,244 229,280 Mar - 162,947 MSE = 3110592636 MAPE = 22.80 Theil,s U= 0.71

Ex-ante and Ex-post forecasting of Potato arrival MSE 3110592636 MAPE 22.80 Theil’S U 0.71

Potato Price Autocorrelation plots for Potato prices after taking d=D=1

Partial autocorrelation plots for Potato prices after taking d=D=1

Tentatively identified models for Potato prices * indicates significant at 5% level ** indicates significant at 1% and 5% level Model Q-statistic Degrees of freedom(df) Akaike Information Coefficient ( 0 1 0 ) (0 1 1) 35.29 24 1196.18 ( 1 1 1 ) (0 1 1) 33.32 * 22 1199.93 ( 1 1 1 ) (1 1 1) 32.50 21 1200.88 ( 0 1 0 ) (1 1 1) 32.25 23 1197.15 ( 0 1 1 ) (1 1 1) 36.03 ** 22 1198.85 (1 1 1 ) (0 1 2) 32.17 21 1200.83

Actual and forecasted values for prices of Potato (Qtls) Months Actual value Forecasted value Months Actual value Forecasted value Apr-07 1,050 812 Apr-08 - 1,007 May 881 1,178 May - 1,093 Jun 1,005 922 Jun - 1,147 Jul 1,119 1,036 Jul - 1,191 Aug 969 951 Aug - 1,027 Sep 1,065 910 Sep - 991 Oct 1,075 1,192 Oct - 1,103 Nov 1,113 1,158 Nov - 1,180 Dec 1,038 1,107 Dec - 1,165 Jan-08 988 975 Jan-09 - 1,105 Feb 925 944 Feb - 1,060 Mar 888 903 Mar - 1,037 MSE=16250 MAPE=18.28 Theil,s U= 0.98

Ex-ante and Ex-post forecast of potato prices MSE 16250 MAPE 18.28 Theil’S U 0.98

conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Paper Presentation Mohan Kumar

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