Luigi De Martino - Secretariat of the Geneva Declaration
1. Small Arms Survey 2012
Moving Targets
Peace and Security in the Post-2015 development
agenda
Luigi De Martino, Secretariat of the Geneva Declaration
[28 JUNE 2013]
2. Crime and security indicators for development?
Why safety and security
matter for development
No low-income fragile or conflict-affected
country has achieved a single MDG as of 2011
A country that experienced major violence
during the period 1981-2005 had a poverty rate
on average 21 percentage points higher than a
country without violence
Absence of violence / sustained peace can
bring rapid gains
3. Crime and security indicators for development?
International debate is
very active
UN, IGOs
Donors
Research
Institutes, Think
Tanks, Academia
Civil society
4. Crime and security indicators for development?
HLP Report:“To end extreme poverty in
all its forms in the context of
sustainable development “
“We are calling for a fundamental shift—to
recognise peace and good governance as core
elements of well-being, not an optional extra.”
The Panel recommends that a limited
number of goals and targets (…), and that
each should be SMART:
specific, measurable, attainable, relevant and
time-bound.
5. Crime and security indicators for development?
GOAL 11. Ensure
Stable and Peaceful
Societies
11a. Reduce violent deaths per 100,000 by x and eliminate
all forms of violence against children
11b. Ensure justice institutions are
accessible, independent, well-resourced and respect due-
process rights
11c. Stem the external stressors that lead to
conflict, including those related to organised crime
11d. Enhance the capacity, professionalism and
accountability of the security forces, police and judiciary
6. Crime and security indicators for development?
GOAL 10. Ensure Good
Governance and Effective
Institutions
10a. Provide free and universal legal identity, such as birth
registrations
10b. Ensure people enjoy freedom of
speech, association, peaceful protest and access to
independent media and information
10c. Increase public participation in political processes and
civic engagement at all levels
10d. Guarantee the public’s right to information and access to
government data
10e. Reduce bribery and corruption and ensure officials can
be held accountable
7. Crime and security indicators for development?
GOAL 2. Empower Girls and
Women and Achieve Gender
Equality
2a. Prevent and eliminate all forms of violence
against girls and women
2b. End child marriage
2c. Ensure equal right of women to own and
inherit property, sign a contract, register a
business and open a bank account
2d. Eliminate discrimination against women in
political, economic, and public life
8. Crime and security indicators for development?
1. End Poverty
3. Provide Quality
Education and
Lifelong Learning
4. Ensure Healthy
Lives
5. Ensure
Food Security and
Good Nutrition
6. Achieve Universal
Access to Water and
Sanitation
12. Create a Global
Enabling Environment and
Catalyse Long-Term Finance
9. Manage Natural Resource
Assets Sustainably
8. Create Jobs, Sustainable
Livelihoods, and Equitable
Growth
7. Secure
Sustainable
Energy
9. Criteria for Indicators
• SMART: Specific, Measurable, Attainable,
Relevant, and Time bound
• Methodological Sound: based on agreed
definitions, standards and good practices.
• Feasible: measured in cost-effective and practical
manner
• Disaggregation: by geographical place and region,
sex, income or social groups
10. GOAL 11: targets and indicators
Targets Indicators Source / Data Issues
Reduce and prevent violent deaths
per 100,000 people by x and
eliminate all forms of violence
against children, women and other
vulnerable groups.
1. Intentional homicide rate per 100,000 Disaggregated by age, gender,
social groups, time, region, and
income.
Reliable measurement not
possible with the current stock of
data
1.2. Direct deaths from armed conflict per 100,000
1.3. Suicide rate per 100,000
1.4. Violent injury per 100,000
1.5. Percentage of citizens who feel safe
1.6. Number of children recruited by armed forces and non-state armed
groups
1.7. Rape and other forms of sexual violence per 100,000
1.8. Rate of child maltreatment
Enhance the capacity,
professionalism, accountability of
security, police and justice
institutions.
2.1. Percentage of the population who express confidence in police and justice
institutions
Perception Survey
Disaggregated by age, gender,
social groups, time, region, and
income.
2.2. Degree of civilian and parliamentary oversight of security institutions and
budgets which are public
Expert Survey
2.3. Percentage of security, police and justice personnel prosecuted over the
total number of reported cases of misconduct
Administrative Data
2.4. Number of police and judicial sector personnel (qualified judges,
magistrates, prosecutors, defense attorneys) per 100,000 and distribution
across the territory.
Administrative Data
(2.5. Ratio of formal cases filed to cases resolved per year)
Enhance equity and social
cohesion and ensure adequate
formal and informal mechanisms
are in place to manage disputes
peacefully.
3.1. Degree of equitable access to, resourcing of, and outcomes from public
services
Perception and Administrative
Data
Disaggregated by age, gender,
social groups, time, region, and
income.
3.2. Level of trust and tolerance within society
3.3. Perceptions of discrimination
3.4. Degree to which there are effective formal or informal mechanisms and
programs in place to prevent and resolve disputes peacefully
Reduce external drivers of
violence and conflict, including
illicit flows of arms, drugs,
finance, natural resources and
11. Towards a global measuring
system?
• A single Global Sustainable Development Outlook,
monitoring trends and results, as well as risks that
threaten to derail achievement of the targets.
• A high-level global forum to review progress and
challenges ahead, supported by an independent
advisory committee
• Reporting and peer-review at the regional level to
complement global monitoring.
• Develop thematic ‘multi-stakeholder partnerships’.
12. Small Arms Survey 2012
Moving Targets
any questions?
www.smallarmssurvey.org
Notes de l'éditeur
Armed violence has long-term, far-reaching, and costly effects on development. Lethal violence in particular is associated with low attainment of human development and the MDGs.However, the issues of conflict, crime, violence as well as justice, rule of law were not included in the Millennium Development Goals. Reasons for not including the issues related to peace, conflict and violence, justice and rule of law in the MDG frame – despite being addressed in the Millennium Declaration – are multifold and include political sensitivities of states, a perception of poverty (and poverty reduction) understood as lack of income, data availability on conflict, violence, crime and justice issues. The fact that the MDG frame did not consider these issues is one of the main reasons for the launch of the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development. The GD supports a 'measurability' agenda (for example indicators relevant to the post 2015 MDG process)Evidence for programmingMonitoring and evaluation
In 2015 the GA will agree on a new frame for ‘development’ for the next 15 yearsThe process for setting the agenda for the post-2015 frame has begunalready in 2012. Manyactors – UN Agencies, research institutions, and CS organisations have been writing on the whatshouldbeincluded in this frame. This isverydifferent to whathappenedwith the previous MDG frame. A number of initiatives including the GD GBAV, the WB and its WDR 11, the UNODC with the World Homicide Report, the WHO with the Global Burden of Desaese have proven the measuring issues of conflict, crime and violence are possible alsoat global level.The UN has organised 11 thematic consultations and a number of national consultations. One of the thematic consultation was on disasters (Indonesia), conflict (Liberia), and violence (Panama). The UN SG alsoappointed a Panel of Eminent Personsunder the leadership of the Pres of Liberia, Indonesia and the UK Prime Minister to provide a report setting a vision for development. The HLP report has been released on 30 May thisyear.
The vision of the HLP on povertyisbroaderthan the previous MDG frame: «endingextreme poverty is just the beginning, not the end. It is vital, but our vision must be broader: to start countries on the path of sustainable development “ Makes the links to the Rio agenda on Sustainable Development and the ‘Sustainable Development Goals”. These two agendas will need to be reconciled (Open Working Group on SDGs is expected to provide its report in 2014).Another important element is that the post-2015 frame (HLP) is not ‘only’ for developing countries and for development aid. It has a larger ambition, to be universal.
I shall focus now on the HLP report, which is expected to frame the UNSG Report to be presented to the General Assembly later this summer. Peace, violence addressed with one specific goal (GOAL 11) as well as with a cross cutting approach. “The Panel strongly believes that conflict – acondition that has been called development in reverse –must be tackled head-on, even within a universal agenda.We included in our illustrative list a goal on ensuring stableand peaceful societies, with targets that cover violentdeaths, access to justice, stemming the external causesof conflict, such as organised crime, and enhancing thelegitimacy and accountability of security forces, police andthe judiciary. But these targets alone would not guaranteepeace or development in countries emerging fromconflict. Other issues, like jobs,participation in politicalprocesses and local civic engagement, and the transparentmanagement of public resources are also important.Thesecountries should also benefit from a strengthenedfinancing framework that allows resources to be allocatedto those countries most in need.”
The HLP report does not alwaysprovideindicators for its goals and targets, workiscurrentlyongoing to consultwithvarious experts and constituencies on targets and indicatorsbased on the HLP. (Recent meetings organised by the UN in Glen Cove and Vienna).
The HLP report calls for a data revolution for sustainable development, with a new international initiative to improve the quality of statistics and information available to citizens. This workshouldbetterconnectthe advances in ICTs and in application of new technologies to measurments to the traditional statistics community at both global and national levels.How much of the HLP Report willremain in 2015 isunclear. First the UNSG willpreparehis report to the UNGA, but then the nextchallenging phase willbegin, when UN Member States willstartdebating and negotiating the post-2015 frame. We know thatthere are manysensitivitiesaroundmany of the issues and countries may support other issues and agendas.