Tradenomics power point-kleinhenz-june2008

TRADENOMICS How To Be Prepared During Times of ECONOMIC Uncertainty, Growth, and/or Stagnation. By Mike Kleinhenz

FIRST OF ALL… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

WHAT IS ECONOMICS? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

ESSENTIALLY… … we allow economic analysts to gather and distribute the information; we have very little control ( if any at all ) over the “ specifics ” of economics, but…

NON-ESSENTIALLY… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

TRADENOMIC ANALYSIS - OPA : ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

SO, HOW DO WE USE ECONOMICS TO OUR ADVANTAGE? WHERE DO WE BEGIN? ,[object Object],[object Object]

OVERALL ASSESSMENT! [ D e v e l o p a f o r e c a s t ] ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

GENERAL ECONOMICS… ,[object Object],[object Object],* This is why a stern focus on economic indicators and reports is so important; it helps us DECIDE and BE PREPARED for strategy shifts.

WHERE TO GO FOR PREPARATION? http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar There are several different types of Economic Calendars to choose from and are very easy to find on the internet…

DAILY / WEEKLY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS ( Start at the top & work down ). ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Most recent quarter; first quarter of 2008; reported in early June of this year.

ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP CLASSIFICATIONS & TIME VARIANCE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

1/3 TYPE OF ECONOMIC REPORTS ,[object Object]

TIMING is EVERYTHING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

THE “SUPER SEVEN” CATAGORIES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

OUTPUT, INCOME, & SPENDING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],All of these reports are both coincident and a procyclical economic indicators.

Employment, Unemployment, and Wages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

PRODUCTION & BUSINESS ACTIVITY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[ A slowdown in the housing market during a boom often indicates that a recession is coming, whereas a rise in the new housing market during a recession usually means that there are better times ahead. ]

PRICES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Money, Credit, and Security Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

FEDERAL FINANCE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],When times are good people tend to spend more money on both domestic and imported goods. The level of exports tends not to change much during the business cycle.

WHAT TO DO…??? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

LEARN THROUGH EXPERIENCE! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CONFLICTING MESSAGES ,[object Object],[object Object]

“ IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!” - James Carville GROUP QUESTION : What is your current assessment/analysis of the U.S. economy? Why? How can we use this assessment to our advantage ?

CURRENT ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

… can you say, “ STAG / FLATION ”? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

recap: WHAT CAN WE DO??? … BE PREPARED!!!

Tradenomics power point-kleinhenz-june2008

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