Contenu connexe Similaire à The Future of an Aging Population - Glen Hiemstra (20) Plus de Glen Hiemstra (20) The Future of an Aging Population - Glen Hiemstra2. Learning from from the Future
Discontinuous Change
The Aging Story
Japan as Bellweather
Key Challenges
Livable Communities
Long term Care
Economic & Fiscal Issues
Social Security and the
Safety Net
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4. Of all the 65 year olds
who ever lived,
2/3
are alive today
A Discontinuous Change
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5. Age Wave In Action
MALE FEMALE
681 Days until the first Boomer turns 65
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7. Over 65 in Georgia
8th fastest growing right now
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8. Young & Old in Georgia
Percent 19
and under
#19 in U.S.
Percent 65
and over
#42 in U.S.
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9. 27 Florida’s by 2025
States where at least 20% of
The population will be elderly
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11. Tomorrow’s Aged are Different
Chronic conditions
Educated & tech savvy
Greater gaps in wealth
Achievement oriented & adventurous
Men moving inward, women moving
outward
Women travel alone or without husband,
reverse not true
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12. Estimated Health Status
Elderly in Georgia
Year Total Pop. Require Cost per
IADL person
Assistance
2005 852,000 60,833 $10,983
2025 1,668,000 119,095 $58,732
Source: “Georgia’s Aging Population,” a report to the Healthcare Georgia Foundation. http://gbpi.org/pubs/
specialreport/20051005.pdf
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15. Working…
In 1950 half of 70-
year old men
worked full time.
Today in Atlanta
region 67% of
people over 55 are
not working at all.
ARC 2006 Survey report
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18. Traveling…
Right now, 88% of 55
and older persons drive
their own cars
20% of those over 65
not longer drive in U.S.
57 % expect “to be
driven” in the future
13% expect to use
transit
ARC 2006 Survey report
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19. Living…
As in rest of country
about 75% of
seniors plan to live
in their current home
“as long as
possible.”
ARC 2006 Survey report
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23. Japan’s Elder Care
87% cared for in Family
43% daughters or daughters-in-law
7% sons or sons-in-law
37% spouses
13% have hired caretakers, other
kinds of help, or no caretaker.
Source: Japanese Women Now
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24. Japan’s Social Expenditures
1970s, social expenditures 6% of
Japan’s national income.
1992 up to18%.
2025 predicted 27%
70% of the social-welfare budget goes
to programs for the aged
4% for services to children
Sources: Statistical Handbook of Japan and AsiaTimes Online
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25. Japan’s Economic Solutions
Employers are keeping the elderly
working longer
Modify jobs to suit the elderly (e.g. more
lighting, fewer physical barriers)
Utilize their knowledge and skills
Companies are creating products for the
elderly
Accessible cars
Care-bots
Families are expected to provide care
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31. Ultimate Age Wave Question…
Increasingly, 65-somethings will be
facing large homes with dark
bedrooms, lots of yard work, and a
rusting basketball hoop over the
garage. How many graying boomers
will actually live in those 5000sf
McMansions? Will you? But who
else can afford them?
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32. Need to Age the Home
1st Floor Master
Rocker switches
Dual Suites Lower, even adjustable
counters
Wide hall ways
Ramps, slopes Decrease size &
Contrasting Steps
cost by one-half
Multi-family
going forward
Apartments added
from 2009 – but
Co-housing
how?
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33. Infrastructure Needs
Sign and document readability
Public transportation / walkability
Retrofitting homes for better
accessibility
Re-zoning
Small home options
Complete communities
Source: Duluth Weekly, September 10, 2007
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34. Long Term Care
Programs for in-home care
Georgia among lowest in nation for Medicaid
spent on in-home care
40% of Georgia’s elderly live in rural areas
Compare to 5% in Massachusetts, 12% in
Colorado
Most of Georgia’s long-term care services
are in urban areas
Source: Stateline.org, September 14, 2007
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35. Aging and Mental Health
In Georgia, the elderly account for 20% of all
suicides, especially among white males
Less than 3% of elderly receive treatment
from mental health professionals
Depression may be linked to other chronic
conditions like cancer, Alzheimer’s disease,
arthritis, obesity, and heart disease.
Source: Georgia.gov, DHR
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36. Caregivers
4.7 potential care givers (Age 20-64) for
each person over 65 in 2005
3.0 potential caregivers for each person 65+
in 2025
Source: “Georgia’s Aging Population,” a report to the Healthcare Georgia Foundation. http://gbpi.org/pubs/
specialreport/20051005.pdf
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38. Are we ready for aged workforce?
Manpower, Inc.: 28,000 employers 25 countries:
14% have strategies to recruit older (over 50) workers
21% have strategies to retain older workers
Boston College study U.S. companies:
37% have strategies to retain older workers
9% have made detailed projections about their aging
workforce
Most older workers say 9-5, 5-day week does not
work for them
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39. Impact on Taxes & Spending
Less income
Beyond the spending wave
Tax exemptions
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40. Coming Final Debate Over
Social Security (& Health Care)
Solvent without changes till 2040 if U.S.
does not default
Safe at 75% of current benefits beyond
2040 with no changes.
Options for full benefits past 2040 include
raising retirement age, increasing tax
about 1.5%, increasing income subject to
tax, changing formulas for slower benefit
growth
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41. Learning from from the Future
Discontinuous Change
The Aging Story
Japan as Bellweather
Key Challenges
Livable Communities
Long term Care
Economic & Fiscal Issues
Social Security and the
Safety Net
©
42. Is Aging Just Beginning?
Medicine of Today and the Future
Today
Diagnostics—”pauciparameter”
Therapy--reactive
Prevention--minor role
Future
Diagnostics--multiparameter
Therapy--diagnostics-driven and personalized
Prevention--dominant role
Extend productive life span by 10-20 years over next 30 years
Dr. Leroy Hood, Inst. Systems Biology
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43. Mid-21st Century Folk Song
Happy Birthday Dear Granny
Happy Birthday Dear Granny
Happy One Hundred and Twenty
Birthdays, Dear Granny
Happy Birthday To You
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