Disaster management report digital strategy CSIRO

1. DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES FLAGSHIP
www.csiro.au
REPORT
All Hazards: Digital
Technology & Services
for Disaster Management

2. Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 are a recent example of natural disasters causing loss of life and property in
high-risk areas.
Introduction
Natural disasters have increased in severity and frequency in recent
years. In 2010 alone, 385 natural disasters killed over 297,000 people
worldwide, impacted 217 million human lives and cost the global
economy US$123.9 billion.1
Similarly, Australia is encountering an increasing Priority information
number of natural disasters including floods,
To save lives and make our communities safer,
bushfires and cyclones. Other natural and human
stronger, more resilient, we need to sustain and
induced hazards are increasing in frequency
strengthen our disaster management efforts and
and severity including storm surges, droughts,
better prepare for emergency situations. Therefore,
heatwaves, and earthquakes. They cost more than
it is critical that emergency managers have better,
$1.4 billion damage each year to homes, business,
more effective information to use. Clear knowledge
and the nation’s infrastructure, along with serious
of specific hazards and emerging disasters related
disruption to communities.
to climate change, as well as methods, tools,
Because we live on coastlines and in the bush, and standards and systems that will deliver the greatest
we’ve built our houses and necessary infrastructure impact are needed.
in these high-risk regions, such damaging natural
Understanding the overarching social, economic
disasters put many people’s lives and properties
and environmental costs, and, for industry; the
at stake. Victoria’s 2009 Black Saturday Bushfires
return on investment, risk-based resource allocation
and Queensland’s 2011 Brisbane Floods are recent
and performance management outcomes of disaster
devastating examples.
management is necessary - as well as knowing how
In addition to the recognised effects of climate to effectively harness community and volunteer
change in Australia, such as increasing frequency networks to counteract and overcome disasters.
and severity of storms, intense rainfall, extended
drought and heatwaves, our expanding population
is residing in areas progressively more prone to
natural disasters and unpredictable weather events.
2 Disaster Management

3. Consequently, emergency and disaster management Our mission is to deliver great science and
in Australia is undergoing reform. The Council innovative solutions for industry, society and the
of Australian Governments’ National Strategy for environment. Therefore, our scientific approach
Disaster Resilience aims to enhance Australia’s to understanding risk and disaster events can be
community and organisational capacity to better used to improve many aspects of your disaster and
withstand and recover from emergencies.2 Disaster emergency management process.
resilience will strengthen when government,
business, communities and individuals collectively
adopt risk-based planning and mitigation strategies. We use our science to make a
In short, how we prevent, prepare, respond to, and profound and positive impact
recover from disasters that impact our social, built,
economic and natural environments is important. for the future of Australia
and humanity.
Real answers to big questions
CSIRO, Australia’s national scientific agency, is
well positioned to support governments, planning Taking an all hazards approach to disaster
groups, rescue and recovery agencies, municipal management, CSIRO is also working on a Disaster
councils, insurance companies, organisations, Management Decision Support Platform to bring
communities and individuals to better cope with all hazard capabilities together. The Platform will
the disaster events continuum; from Prevention, support the capabilities that CSIRO is currently
Preparation, Response and Recovery (PPRR) to all focusing on, but will not limit the integration of
hazards and all agencies involved. other capabilities that we may consider either
working on or collaborating for in the future.
We favour a multi-disciplined approach to deliver The Platform is an effort to bring a common
powerful solutions and tackle Australia’s major IT framework to assist decision makes in the
challenges. Our team includes specialists in 3D disaster management.
simulation modelling and visualisation, geospatial
sciences, environmental, physical, economic and
This report will highlight our current key areas of
social sciences, social media monitoring and big
research and development that, although broad
data mining and analytics.
in their potential, can be harnessed to improve
We’re working to save lives and preserve critical the process and service delivery of disaster
infrastructure by finding powerful ways to, for management in Australia and, importantly, provide
example: high-impact solutions to strengthen our national
disaster resilience in the future.
◆◆understand flood behaviour in 3D and how to
avoid or minimise damage
◆◆predict fire behaviour and mitigate the impact
of bushfire
◆◆rapidly access information from geographic
locations in real-time
◆◆predict disaster incidence probabilities
◆◆assess infrastructure damage and inform future
infrastructure designs
◆◆collate and correlate social media information for
better decision-making
◆◆forecast the likelihood of an event, where it will
occur and the associated cost.
Droughts and flooding rains: Australia is a land of extremes.
CSIRO research aims to make our communities safer, stronger
and more resilient.
3

4. CSIRO flood simulation and infrastructure impacts assessment showing hypothetical flooding in a town below China’s
Geheyan Dam if the dam were to break. The colour of the water indicates flow speed (red is fast, blue is slow).
Understanding floods & extreme
flow events
Catastrophic events like floods, dam breaks, tsunamis, storm surges,
coastal inundation, volcanic eruptions and mudslides involve the
large‑scale movement of fluids and solids. These extreme flow events
are difficult to study because solids and fluids move in large volumes
over large areas, involve many physical processes and occur over an
expanse of time and space.
Accurate knowledge of fluid flows during natural terrain, fill spaces, flow downwards with gravity and
and man-made disasters will help disaster planners interact with and respond to objects around them. This
predict serious economic, environmental and powerful modelling technique, called Smoothed Particle
humanitarian consequences. To assist at-risk Hydrodynamics, delivers realistic water simulations
populations, CSIRO mathematicians have developed including difficult-to-model behaviours such as wave
new computational modelling techniques to motion, flow of solids wave fragmentation and splashing.
better understand and prepare for flood disasters.
Compared to traditional ‘bucket-fill’ techniques, our fluid
Importantly, emergency services will be able to use
modelling techniques provide a greater understanding
this information to make effective decisions based
of fluid flow impacts at the local level. Broad national
on accurate data from real-life disaster scenarios.
and regional assessments are important for identifying
coastlines vulnerable to natural disasters, sea-level rises
3D flood modelling & visualisation and erosion. However, such assessments do not provide
A well-defined understanding of fluid behaviour adequate practical information for disaster managers to
using computational fluid dynamics, coupled with know what local factors may affect specific sites during
landscape features via digital terrain imaging, offers an emergency 3.
emergency managers and planners clear knowledge
to address risks from dam breaks, storm surges, Armed with a detailed understanding of the
heavy rainfall floods, tsunamis and other extreme site‑specific effects of fluid flows, floods and erosion
flow events. on the local environment, your adaptation planning
will be improved by knowing: the current coastal
High resolution 3D flood modelling and visualisation risks and vulnerabilities; the worst coastal hazard
is achieved using powerful computers that or combination of hazards; and which effective
rapidly process sophisticated CSIRO-developed actions will best manage your most vulnerable areas.
algorithms. Water is represented as a flow of tiny This technology gives you solid evidence to make
round particles that can move around objects and important decisions and be better prepared.
4 Disaster Management

5. KNOW…
◆◆how a storm surge will behave as it floods
regions of economic importance
◆◆what would happen if a tsunami hit
a coastline
IN REAL LIFE: ◆◆the likely nature of an extreme flow disaster
Dam damage and its probable impact
◆◆what infrastructure is at risk and when this is
A real-life situation, for which CSIRO has performed likely to occur
predictive 3D fluid modelling and visualisation,
◆◆how to execute better flood evacuation plans
is the collapse of China’s Geheyan Dam. This dam
wall holds back 3.4 billion cubic metres of water ◆◆where to place civil engineered structures to
and is built on the Qingjiang River in China. With mitigate flood damage
population centres downstream of this structure, ◆◆outcomes in terms of timing, area affected
a dam break would be catastrophic. and loss of critical infrastructure and
evacuation routes
In collaboration with the Satellite Surveying and
Mapping Application Centre (SASMAC), part of ◆◆how to plan your flood and storm rescue
the Chinese National Administration of Surveying, process and improve your recovery efforts
Mapping and Geo-informatics (NASG) and funded
by the ACEDP program of AusAID with support from
the Ministry of Finance and Commerce (MOFCOM),
we simulated six dam wall failure scenarios for the
Geheyan Dam4. We investigated how the released
water would impact 50 buildings, including a
preschool, a primary school, a fuel station, a locations downstream of the collapsed wall.
mobile phone tower, a bank and a post office, Overlaying geographically linked information,
located within 10 kilometres of the dam wall. such as populations, villages and housing,
roads and transport infrastructure, factories
How the dam collapses dictates the area of
(economic infrastructure) provides an insight into
inundation and was found to be dramatically
infrastructure vulnerability and can give a clear
different for each predicted failure scenario,
picture of the damage that would occur.
including analysing the dam wall debris carried
along by the water for each scenario. We In Australia, we’ve also modelled what will happen
modelled the water discharge rates and were if a similar failure scenario occurred for WA’s
able to calculate inundation levels at six different Mundaring Dam, upstream of the city of Perth.
CSIRO 3D flood simulation and infrastructure impacts assessment. A still from a computer simulation showing a dam wall
breaking apart.
5

6. As Australia’s climate changes and our population grows to reside in peri-urban bushland, we face increasing incidence of
bushfire threat to human lives, property and infrastructure.
Understanding your bushfire exposure
Bushfire is one of the world’s most dangerous natural phenomena and,
sadly, has been responsible for killing over 300 Australians in the past
50 years. On average, bushfires in Australia cause over $70 million in
damage annually. In addition up to $1.0 billion is spent each year on
managing bushfires, not including the time and effort expended by our
300,000 volunteer firefighters engaged across the country.
As Australia’s climate changes and our population influence fire occurrence, spread, mitigation and
grows to reside in peri-urban bushland, we face suppression. This will help rural fire authorities and
increasing incidence of bushfire threat to human land management agencies reduce and prevent the
lives, property and infrastructure. devastating and costly impact of bushfires on the
community and the environment.
The extreme weather and bushfire conditions of
2009’s Black Saturday bushfires resulted in the
loss of 173 lives, injured 414 people and destroyed Bushfire behaviour modelling
over 2000 houses and 3500 structures. This Bushfires result from complex interactions between
disaster impelled authorities to find ways to better the vegetation (fuel), the weather, the landscape
understand the complex, interconnected factors (topography), combustion chemistry and heat
that cause bushfires to provide a safer environment transfer physics. Making sense of the variables
for people to live. that influence fire behaviour and their interactions
is a highly skilled task. The more we learn about
Current bushfire prediction tools use information
fire, the more information we have to make better
from fires in modest weather conditions and are
decisions about fire management, prevention
then extrapolated to extreme conditions by ad
and suppression.
hoc observations of wildfire events. Unfortunately,
this empirical approach fails to completely capture Our Bushfire Dynamics and Applications scientists
the range of behaviours expected from fires are advancing fire spread prediction and bushfire
burning under more severe conditions. We need suppression systems using sophisticated data
to understand how a high-intensity bushfire will analysis techniques and computer modelling. In
behave in extreme weather. conjunction with state land management, rural
fire agencies and other research agencies such as
Through powerful digital science and technology
the Bureau of Meteorology, our scientists apply
advances, we gain a greater knowledge of bushfire
knowledge of bushfire dynamics to real events and
behaviour and understanding of the conditions that
assist in predicting risk scenarios.
6 Disaster Management

7. To unlock the mysteries of bushfire behaviour, our
team performs laboratory and field experiments,
IN REAL LIFE:
physical investigations and statistical analyses. Our Knowledge from the
experimental equipment includes large vertical
and horizontal wind tunnels, plus sensors and Kilmore East fire
measurement devices. Our predictive fire behaviour
Black Saturday’s most significant bushfire was the
models - including those relating to initial
Kilmore East fire. The fire claimed 119 lives and
attack, aerial suppression, fuel moisture and fire
burnt through 100,140 hectares in the first 12 hours5.
spread - draw on extensive results from scientific
experiments investigating various vegetation types This kind of fire intensity is not unprecedented in
and weather conditions. south-eastern Australia. The recurrence of large
one-day fires is a relatively frequent event in the
We’re well-positioned to provide valuable
region which is why it is critical to get a better
information about bushfire dynamics and
understanding of large-scale fire phenomena.
emergency response operations, to develop
improved fire danger rating systems, to provide Investigating weather conditions, fuels and
better public warnings and preparedness, to advise propagation, a CSIRO collaborative report on the
on firefighter safety and training, to simulate Kilmore East fire provides valuable insights into
fire behaviour and design effective decision the physical processes involved in high intensity
support systems, to optimise fire suppression fire behaviour in eucalypt forests 4. In particular,
resources and logistics for maximum efficiency the combination of dry fuel and gale force winds
and to develop prescribed burning guides for caused the ignition of spotfires up to 33 km
different environments. ahead of the main fire front, and a change in
wind direction turned a 55 km wide flank into an
In addition, our strength in mathematical
uncontrollable headfire.
modelling and examining how a bushfire event
unfolds over time, across a given landscape, under This case study highlights a critical need to
varying weather conditions and through changing improve our quantitative knowledge of large‑scale
vegetation, allows us to model bushfire scenarios bushfires and for current bushfire behaviour
based on fuel moisture, fire behaviour and spotfire models to be redesigned to account for spotting
probability, which are all important aspects that dynamics and fire-atmosphere interactions. In
inform land management agencies and rural fire addition, this study provides real-world data
authorities how to safely prepare for and respond for future simulation studies on the impact of
to bushfires and enhance public safety. landscape fuel management on fire propagation in
extreme conditions.
Current fire behaviour tools fail to incorporate
the latest knowledge in fire science, limiting
forecast quality and impairing critical decision
making regarding community protection and safe
UNDERSTAND… and effective fire-fighting. Therefore, CSIRO is
◆◆the true environmental impacts of fire on the proposing a National Fire Behaviour Knowledge
landscape, biodiversity, air quality, carbon and water Base that will integrate up-to-date fire behaviour,
fire weather, fuel dynamics, and suppression
◆◆how to classify vegetation and bush/rural-urban capability knowledge and science to help fire
interface zones for hazard and risk assessments managers better predict bushfire behaviour and
◆◆the most effective deployment of resources in real‑time better plan prescribed burns.
for early suppression and evacuation warnings This state-of-the-art decision tool could provide
◆◆where a bushfire may occur in the future: predictive information:
bushfire modelling ◆◆to improve our understanding of the propagation
◆◆the optimum location and design of infrastructure in and energy release of fires
bushfire-prone regions ◆◆for more effective and safer fire fighting
◆◆how to manage a bushfire with efficient use of ◆◆for enhanced protection of rural and bushland
available resources urban communities, and
◆◆to reduce the detrimental effects of fire on our
◆◆how to find alternative routes for fire trucks after an natural resources.
access route is blocked (i.e. bridge collapse)
Such decision support tools for predicting
◆◆the effectiveness of fire mitigation and fire suppression real‑time fire danger and behaviour could provide
actions (i.e. where and when to perform safe fuel
better fuel mitigation planning, public warnings
reduction burns)
and preparedness to reduce the likelihood of
◆◆which critical infrastructure is located in high-risk catastrophic bushfires.
bushfire zones and how can we better protect it
7

8. Australia’s support for Indonesia’s rural growth aims to grow the economy, create employment and alleviate poverty.
Credit: Josh Estey/AusAID
Accessing integrated information
Rapid access and sharing of accurate, integrated information is critical
for governments, rescue agencies and communities to make life-saving
decisions and effectively co-ordinate disaster responses.
To reference and integrate important information A common gazetteer framework for
for shared situational awareness, governments,
effective disaster response
agencies and communities use gazetteers – lists of
place names linked with their geographic locations. Because gazetteers hold valuable information
for disaster management agencies, an online
When different purpose-specific gazetteers are system to make this rich geospatial information
accessed by emergency and community services, source completely accessible, interoperable and
confusion about the name of the location under time‑efficient is essential for evidence-based
impact may arise and the efficiency of the disaster decision making.
response may be compromised. For example, if a
specific location on the map is known by more than To enhance the interoperability of gazetteers,
one name, coordinating an emergency response CSIRO informatics experts are developing a global
to a disaster affecting the location becomes information system to link and correlate multiple
more challenging. sources of information using a gazetteer framework
to better manage and share spatial information.
Conversely, information linked to a specific Timely information held in different agency systems
geographic location can be successfully and referenced using gazetteers will be more easily
interrelated to additional information, as long as accessible through an integration mechanism. This
the geographic location is the same. In theory this will support disaster risk reduction and response by
means one gazetteer’s contents should be able enabling rapid access, query and dissemination and
to crosslink via geographic location to another use of information for improved decision-making
gazetteer’s contents. impacting potentially millions of people.
However, in reality, dealing with the disparity CSIRO’s gazetteer project provides the foundations
between multiple, often overlapping and often for development of event or problem specific
inconsistent agency-specific gazetteer systems applications for responding to environmental
makes linking them a slow and expensive process. disasters, economic crises and emergencies. The
Interoperability challenges arise at every stage common gazetteer framework will also enable the
of information discovery, access, interpretation, integration of volunteered geographic information
transformation and integration. with formal government information sources.
8 Disaster Management

9. ONE REAL WORD
FEATURE:
a bus station
One real world feature:
One real world feature:
a bus station
a bus station a bus station
a bus station
BIG
BIG
National Gazetteer of Indonesia
BIG
National Gazetteer
Department of DEPARTMENT OF Transport
Gazetteer
Department of TRANSPORT
Transport
NATIONAL GAZETTEER OF INDONESIA of Indonesia of Bus Terminals of Bus DATASET
BUS TERMINUS Terminals
Gazetteer Represented in
Represented in multiple systems systems
Represented in multiple systems
multiple
IN REAL LIFE:
Gazetteers for social
using different names, and classified
using different names, and classified
using different
and represented in different ways classified
and represented in different ways
names, and
and represented in
different ways
Identifier
Merak,
Identifier
e a , Bis
Feature Type
Transport
Feature Type Footprint
Identifier
Footprint
Point
StasiunStas u Bis Transport Points Transport Point
Merak, Stasiun s a Merak, Stasiun Bis a spo t
spo a , Stas uo t
e t Merak
o t
Identifier Feature Type
MerakIdentifier Terminal
Feature Type Footprint Feature Type Footprint
Identifier
Footprint
Polygon
Feature Type Footprint
Terminal Polygon Terminal Polygon
Merakyg yg
protection
Merak, Stasiun Bis
MERAK,Merak, Stasiun Bis Merak Merak
MERAK
Currently systems are
Currently systems are
disconnected and difficult to integrate
disconnected and difficult to integrate
In Indonesia, 240 million people live with natural
disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis and
Gazetir Indeonesia Terminus Dataset Terminus Dataset
STASIUM BIS Indeonesia
Gazetir Terminus
Gazetir Dataset
Indeonesia
Currently systems are
disconnected and
volcanic eruptions, as well as global and local
difficult to integrate
economic difficulties. These complex situations,
Merak, Stasiun Bis
(Gazetteer Entry)
Merak, Stasiun Bis
Merak
(Gazetteer Entry)
(Gazetteer Entry)
Merak
GAZETTER FRAMEWORK
(Gazetteer Entry)
GAZETTER FRAMEWORK
coupled with poverty, burden Indonesia’s
Links gazetteers (based on same
Links gazetteers (based on same
Gazetir Indonesia Gazetir Indonesia
Terminus Dataset
(Gazetteer)
feature in different gazetteers)
Terminus Dataset
(Gazetteer)
feature in different gazetteers) government and aid resources.
(Gazetteer) Same as
(Gazetteer) Same as used in web applications and other
used in web applications and other
Used in Used in
Used in Used in online resources. online resources.
MERAK, Navigation application
Navigation application Online Public Passenger Travel Stats
Online Public MERAK
Passenger Travel Stats
Disaster and social assistance programs in
STASIUM BISTransport Map
Indonesia collect and store valuable information.
Linked Resource Linked Resource Application
Transport Map Application (Gazetteer Entry)
Linked Resource Linked Resource
Linked Resource Linked Resource
(Entry)
Yet, due to a range of integration challenges,
GAZETTER
GAZETIR
INDONESIA
Same as TERMINUS
DATASET
FRAMEWORK
Links gazetteers
this information is difficult to access and use
(Gazetteer) (Gazetteer)
that reference the
same real world effectively in responding to the needs of
feature.
Used in Used in Links web
applications and
vulnerable people.
other online
NAVIGATION PUBLIC PASSENGER
resources.
CSIRO, in collaboration with the Indonesian
APPLICATION
Linked Resource
TRANSPORT MAP
Linked resource
TRAVEL STATS
Linked resource
Government and the UN, is contributing to social
protection work being supported by AusAID
in Indonesia by developing a pilot gazetteer
Gazetteers are directories of lists of place names with geographic framework. Its aim is to improve access to
locations. CSIRO is working on a pilot project with collaborators like
the UN and AusAID to integrate gazetteers in Indonesia.
gazetteers and information about places that
enable monitoring of vulnerable populations,
the rapid analysis and response to shocks that
impact them.
More generally, the technology platform will
also benefit Australian research initiatives using The prevalent use of mobile phones and on-line
information that is currently difficult and time tools in Indonesia provides a stream of up-to-date
consuming to correlate. This will be analysed in a informal information that could be tapped into
routine fashion creating new opportunities in fields and linked to locations using gazetteers. Based on
of sustainability, hydrology and health risk. the use of well-managed gazetteers, this informal
‘crowd-sourced’ information can be rapidly
The goal of this research is to radically improve
referenced, organised and integrated with formal
interoperability and availability of information in
information providing an up-to-date picture of
disparate systems, through developing a framework
what is happening on the ground.
to manage and access integrate unambiguous
references to places contained within gazetteers. This will greatly assist agencies involved in social
protection by enable better policy decisions and
In essence, a the gazetteer framework will enable
will help aid agencies better identify populations
the rapid integration of information before and
experiencing financial and other stresses and
during an emergency response, to improve our
deliver assistance in a timely manner.
understanding of what is happening where and
help government agencies deliver critical services
where they are needed most.
IDENTIFY…
◆◆valuable information by interpreting and integrating gazetteer information from informal
and formal sources
◆◆the disaster area quickly and respond efficiently
◆◆which populations are located in high-risk regions
◆◆when a community in a specific location is under financial stress
◆◆how much rain is falling on a flood-vulnerable community
◆◆disaster-affected populations using up-to-date information
◆◆which natural phenomenon has occurred and what’s happening in real time
9

10. CSIRO is helping business and infrastructure owners and insurers better determine the risk of a disaster event occurring and
estimate the maximum foreseeable loss (MFL).
Estimating disaster odds and dollars
Knowing if, when and where a natural or man-made disaster event
may occur is essential for emergency planning and prevention, and for
ensuring your disaster response and recovery processes are adequate.
For example, in order to quantify bushfire risks, the major steps in fire
ignition, spread and impact need to be understood and modelled.
Furthermore, it is a complicated task for Estimating your maximum
companies with infrastructure and investments
foreseeable loss
in disaster‑prone areas to determine the risk
of a disaster event occurring and to estimate Despite their complexity, if historical information is
the maximum foreseeable loss (MFL) they may available, events such as fires, floods, heatwaves and
experience as a result of the disaster. Likewise, storm tides can be simulated. The resulting losses to
setting premiums for insuring infrastructure infrastructure and natural resources can be estimated
and property in disaster-prone regions is also a using data on land use, topography, vegetation,
complex task. weather and the value of structures, crops and
forests. Experimental and statistical research can also
Flood and fire events are part of the Australian tell us about fluid flow or fire ignition/burn rates and
environment. For these disasters, we investigate: the probability that the flood or fire will escalate and
the complexity of the environment over time and cause further loss.
space; extensive amounts of data, information and
knowledge of differing form and quality necessary Understanding the MFL for your service business, or
for risk determination; mitigation and control undertaking risk analysis, management or mitigation
processes; and the multiple, often conflicting in relation to a disaster, requires an in-depth
decision needs or requirements of your company understanding of the unfolding disaster phases.
or organisation.
10 Disaster Management

11. We employ four broad quantitative approaches to
determine your disaster risk:
IN REAL LIFE:
1. we study major historical events, Powerful estimates
2. we undertake a statistical analysis of past, CSIRO conducted a study for the West Australian
related insurance claims, electricity distribution company, Western Power,
to estimate the potential total claimable damage
3. we simulate several worst-case disaster (MFL) for fires that might be started by the electrical
scenarios (Extreme Value Analysis) in one distribution system in the Perth Hills. This work
or more study areas, to approximate the incorporated two approaches. In the first approach
‘1 in N year’ conditions and impacts, and we applied Extreme Value Analysis to estimate
4. we perform a full regional probabilistic analysis 1-in-50 and 1-in-100 year claims based on historical
of the disaster phases. claims data. In the second approach we studied the
prevailing weather conditions at periods of high fire
Our multi-disciplinary research team will address, danger and then used this information to simulate
in a comprehensive way, the question of MFL bushfires spreading from selected points on the
estimation as well as more general challenges distribution network. Both approaches provided
around your disaster risk analysis, management Western Power with insight into their MFL for the
and mitigation. region of interest.
In a second fire risk project, Western Power
contracted CSIRO to determine the likelihood and
MFL for fires that may ignite from their electrical
distribution infrastructure in the economically
important wine-making region of Margaret River.
To estimate the MFL from fire for this region,
we identified several challenges that may arise.
Firstly, the negative impact of ‘smoke taint’ on
grapes over a wide area, with regard to wind speed
and direction, smoke altitude and smoke dispersion
was investigated. Secondly, we predicted the
nature of fire spread through vineyards, including
ESTIMATE… the effect of trellis pole material, row orientation
and whether the vine undergrowth is grassed or
◆◆the probability a flood will inundate a mown. Thirdly, protection of critical infrastructure
particular township or location of major winery facilities was taken into account,
along with an understanding of the fire conditions
◆◆the likelihood of a bushfire destroying
that will likely cause damage to these assets. Finally,
buildings in a given region
an estimate was made of the claimable value of
◆◆what infrastructure is at risk of being vineyards, wineries and wine stocks if these are
affected by a disaster damaged or destroyed by fire.
◆◆how much it will cost to repair the
disaster damage
◆◆how long a service or supply will be
unavailable due to a given disaster event
◆◆objective insurance levels and negotiate
favourable premiums
11

12. Social media and human services
Social networking websites, such as Twitter, have changed the
way people broadcast and receive information. Vast amounts of
instantaneous information are communicated via Twitter every minute.
Short real-time messages, limited to 140 characters, allow unfiltered,
uncensored news and information to be instantly posted online.
Social media channels provide a new, rich source
of information from which disaster managers and
emergency response agencies can obtain real-time
awareness of developing situations.
However, the deluge of information that can be
extracted from social media sources is not in an
accessible format to inform emergency responses.
For example, information about the 2009 Victorian
bushfires was reported in real-time on social
network sites but was not visible to state or federal
disaster response agencies.
The potential applications of social media
information for disaster managers include
providing: evidence of pre-incident activity;
near real-time notice of an incident occurring;
first-hand reports of incident impacts; and Our Emergency Situational Awareness software detects
gauging community response to an emergency unusual behaviour on Twitter and alerts the user when a
disaster event is being discussed.
warning. Importantly, such information will
contribute towards effective decisions for
emergency responses.
Yet to do this, we need a robust way to identify and Another social media engagement software tool,
analyse emerging topics in Twitter that indicate a called Vizie, was developed as part of CSIRO’s
significant disaster, emergency event or unexpected Human Services Delivery Research Alliance with
incident is occurring within a given time frame and the Australian Government Department of Human
at a given location. Services. Vizie enables a global overview of
social media topics being discussed and allows
related social media entries to be grouped
Monitoring social media for into conversations.
emergency situation awareness
ESA and Vizie collect and analyse large volumes
We are developing services to support automated
of real-time Twitter feeds, and detect and alert
social media analysis to collect, detect, assess,
on unusual activity in near real-time. These tools
simplify and report situation information in near
cluster and summarise Twitter posts to provide
real-time from Twitter.
disaster managers with a clear explanation of the
Our Emergency Situational Awareness (ESA) situation. Our tools classify and review high-value
software detects unusual behaviour in the Twitter messages (i.e. damage to roads, bridges, power
stream and quickly alerts the user when a disaster and telecommunications infrastructure) to enable
event is being broadcast. ESA also stores complete rescue officers to quickly understand the impact of
Twitter stream information and allows post-event a real-world event on people and infrastructure. In
analyses. Such useful and accessible information addition, forensic analysis of incidents can also be
will provide timely situation awareness for disaster carried out.
managers and emergency response agencies.
12 Disaster Management

13. ESA exploits the statistical incidence of words
used by people on Twitter to describe emergency
IN REAL LIFE:
events, in addition to historical word occurrences Crisis coordination
on Twitter from past disaster events to reveal
topics that are emerging and to flag them for To better understand how to extract emergency
investigation. ESA counts the number of times situation awareness information from social media,
a word appears in a sliding five-minute window we have worked with the Australian Government’s
across the Twitter stream. If this is significantly recently established Crisis Coordination Centre
greater than expected, an alert is generated. (CCC) to develop our ESA software. The CCC
Repeated every minute, these detected ‘word is a dedicated 24/7 facility that supports a
bursts’ are extracted, stored and are available for whole‑of‑government response to national security
access by incident response agencies via the ESA and natural disaster incidents. The goal of the
web application. CCC is “to deliver the right information to the right
people, in the right format, to the right place, at
ESA provides situation awareness by using data the right time”. By managing the flow, processing
mining techniques including burst detection, text and transformation of verified information from
classification, online clustering and geo-tagging. various sources, the CCC is responsible for hazard
These techniques are adapted and optimised for monitoring and situation awareness, and for the
dealing with real-time high-volume text streams, timely and accurate dissemination of information
which identify early indicators of unexpected on emerging risks and threats to police, emergency
events, explore the impact of identified incidents services and other agencies.
and monitor the evolution of events.
A watch officer - the person at the front line of
Importantly, our platforms gather and analyse information processing during an emergency
material from the Twitter social network to provide event – logs all communications and verifiable
all-hazard situation awareness information. facts relating to ‘who knew what when’. Watch
officers could use the ESA tool for real-time
social media monitoring of emergency events.
Watch officers seek to understand the scope
and impact of all hazards during the prevention,
preparedness, response, and recovery phases of
crisis management.
ALERT & MONITOR…
◆◆the unfolding impact of an incident to better plan your emergency response
◆◆unexpected or unusual incidents ahead of official communications
◆◆the severity of an incident on people and infrastructure
◆◆high-value messages such as cries for help and indications of physical damage to infrastructure
from eye-witnesses
◆◆the status of damaged or at-risk infrastructure (i.e. energy and transport)
◆◆aggregated information about emergency events without having to read individual messages
◆◆situation awareness for emergency managers to successfully restore safety and essential services
◆◆time-critical issues within an incident as they arise, develop and conclude
◆◆the response to ongoing issues that may last for hours, days or weeks
◆◆forensic analyses of past events to better plan for future emergencies
13

14. Understanding disaster impacts and
bringing it all together…
It is critical for emergency planners to know where to allocate
investment across the PPRR spectrum to increase community safety
and reduce the costs and social effects of emergencies and disasters.
All disasters and emergencies transit through a Disaster Management Decision
recognised sequence as they occur. An event, such
Support Platform
as a bushfire, cyclone, earthquake, flood, landslide,
storm or tsunami, comprises a number of event A key focus of CSIRO’s contribution to the Disaster
characteristics, such as producing physical features Management area is the development of a technology
during the event, like radiant heat and thick smoke platform to bring all capabilities together, enable the
in the case of a bushfire. opportunity to better understand hazards. The Disaster
Management Decision Support Platform will create an
These event characteristics have an effect on an environment where data, information and modelling
‘object’ such as a person or property, possibly can be more easily integrated across the hazard
causing harm, where ‘harm’ is the immediate domains. It will better equip emergency planners,
direct consequence that each event characteristic response coordinators etc with information to aid their
has on the object. Harm can lead to a range of decision making process.
observed and, in many cases, measurable ‘impacts’
(direct and indirect) which can be categorised as The platform will include facilitate interoperable
economic, social or environmental. The extent of data exchange, cloud computing technologies and
the final impact of the disaster is mediated by the workflow engines to enable better, more effective
object’s exposure and vulnerability, which is directly information for disaster managers. The platform will
proportional to measures taken towards prevention, assist in the four key elements of disaster management,
preparedness, as well as fire and emergency namely Prevention, Preparedness, Response, Recovery
management practices in response and recovery. (PPRR) by providing:
To better understand the economic, social and ◆◆services to make data web accessible and
environmental impacts that natural disasters have on interoperable
Australian communities and to help inform decision ◆◆ability to integrate models
making at the policy level, a more unified and ◆◆ability to integrate data and models from differing
comprehensive approach to emergency management domains to aid decisions.
and reducing risks is being developed by CSIRO.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT PLATFORM
CLIENTS Discovery Desktop Statistical
Impacts Portal
Interface Application (GIS) Package
Processing Codes Social
Data Applications Media
Models
EXCHANGE LAYER
Data Data Data Data Data
RESOURCES
A system to support decisions in disaster situations – the Disaster Management Decision Support Platform
14 Disaster Management

15. OUR VISION – INTERGRATED DISASTER MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT PLATFORM
POLICY
Need: Disaster
Emergency Response/Decision Support Management
Response
BUSINESS NEED
Integrated
Bush fire Analysis Social Impact Analysis Science
Domain/Systems
APPLICATIONS
Applications:
Landscape Climate/Weather Financial Urban
Fuel Specific Science
Modelling Modelling Scenarios Models Domains
SYSTEMS
Models and
analytical tools
Processing re Processing re Processing re Processing re Processing re
services a services a services a services a services a
ew ew ew ew ew
dl dl dl dl dl
id id id id id
M Data M Data M Data M Data M Data Virtual
Libraries/Inputs:
Landscape Urban Data Knowledge Bases
Fuels Climate/Weather Finance (Services)
Characteristics (pop. density etc)
Prepared by Ryan Fraser, adapted from work by Lesley Wyborn (Geoscience Australia), 2012
Vision for all hazards approach to disaster management using the Disaster Management Decision Support Platform for
informed decisions
The platform will provide a system to enable effective infrastructure. After an event, the portal will yield
decision making processes and timely access to information about the impacts that resulted.
information and modelling capacity.
To provide context for the disaster event and
impact, the Portal includes data items, such as
IN REAL LIFE: bridges, road signage, fencing, national park
facilities (BBQs, shelters, toilets), telephone poles,
The portal experience the electricity network, fire towers, field crops
A demonstration of the ‘all hazards’ approach is a and so on. Where available, data items relating
web‑interface called the Impacts Portal, developed by to demographics, the built environment, local
CSIRO and the NSW Fire and Rescue Service. government boundaries, residential zoning and
land use will also be accessible.
Before an event, the Impacts Portal can be used to
plan ‘what if’ scenarios, such as disaster modelling The pilot Impacts Portal is under evaluation. Try it
and disaster risk mapping, to develop policy, to out and provide feedback at www.fend.org.au.
conduct land use analysis and risk assessments and
inform disaster mitigation through preparedness and The Impacts Portal user will be able to:
mitigation. During an event, the portal will assist
◆◆Explore the Impacts Framework data within
with planning and resource prioritisation of frontline the Portal - navigating by disaster category
staff, inform the development of safety programs (bushfire, cyclone, flood, and so on), the event
and identify vulnerable and ‘at-risk’ communities and characteristics, the type of objects impacted by an
event, the harm that results, and the economic,
social and environmental impacts themselves, or a
combination of these.
◆◆Find data items geographically by navigating a
THE PLATFORM WILL... map of Australia using pan and zoom functions
or by specifying a starting state or ABS statistical
◆◆make data from various providers
interoperable and easier to integrate region, as well as enable or disable category layers
of data that have a location component.
◆◆allow users to access disaster event data by
geographic region and time ◆◆Find data items by disaster category and discover
details (impacts) of specific events.
◆◆provide mechanisms to run models on data
◆◆Find instances of natural disaster and fire
◆◆ability to integrate data and models to emergency events that have previously occurred in
aid decisions the region of interest.
15

16. A final word
As Australia’s national science
agency, we offer a multi-pronged
‘all-under-one-roof’ approach
to support and enhance disaster
management in Australia and
internationally. Being one of
the largest and most diverse
research agencies in the world,
we’re reaching out to emergency
managers, planners and decision
makers to connect you with
the right scientific experts and
tools for your problem and help
you develop your emergency
management solution.
If your organisation needs to understand an
associated disaster risk, potential damage, cost
outcomes or any other quantifiable uncertainty,
then, as your scientific advisor, CSIRO can work
with you. The multi-faceted nature of disaster and
emergency management in Australia means we need
you to tell us what we can do to help. We’re not
disaster planners or emergency managers, but we
do have the expertise to expand and enhance your
response efforts. Beach erosion on the Queensland Gold Coast.
Under the newly established Digital Productivity
and Services Flagship, we aim to develop and apply
frontier services science and technology to add Yet like you, we want Australian citizens and
$5 billion in value to the Australian economy by 2025 emergency workers to be safe from harm. And we want
through improved risk management, infrastructure to support our neighbours in the Asia‑Pacific region.
effectiveness, new business opportunities and
transforming public service delivery. We’re poised to help local councils and community
networks understand and develop awareness of risks
As advances in digital productivity continue to be during storms, floods and heatwaves. This includes
made, real-time situation awareness will direct more preparing and planning for natural disasters, being
and more disaster management decisions. Knowing alert and knowing what to do when a disaster event
how to access, interpret and respond appropriately warning is issued, how to be safe during an emergency
to the abundance of rich information is key. and what to do after an emergency event to stay safe.
Furthermore, communicating information to raise
community awareness about the risk of a disaster, We want rescue funds and resources to be used
an unfolding disaster or what to do after a disaster is efficiently and effectively. We want Australians to pay
also important. fair premiums for insurance. And, above all,
we want to give you the best tools and strategies
Safe solutions to meet your disaster management challenges.
This report is about you, not us. We’re experts Think broadly (imagine, even) how you want to
in applying scientific principles to solve difficult improve your organisation’s disaster management
problems, but we’re not working directly in, or on productivity. Then contact us, because we’re here to
the fringes of, the disaster zone. figure it out with you and help you take a step closer
to achieving a great solution.
16 Disaster Management

17. References
1. Guha-Sapir D, Vos F, Below R, with Ponserre S (2012)
Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2011: The Numbers
and Trends. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters (CRED), Brussels.
2. National Strategy for Disaster Resilience. Council of
Australian Governments (February 2011) http://www.
dpc.vic.gov.au/index.php/featured/reforming-victorias-
crisis-and-emergency-management-framework/
disaster-resilience
3. Sharples C, Attwater C and Carley J (2008) Conference
Papers: IPWEA National Conference on Climate Change
‘Responding to Sea Level Rise’, August, Coffs Harbour.
4. Cleary PW, Prakash M, Mead S, Tang X, Wang H and
Ouyang S. Dynamic simulation of dam break scenarios
for risk analysis and disaster management. Accepted
for publication in International Journal of Image and
Data Fusion.
5. Cruz MG, Sullivan AL, Gould JS, Sims NC, Bannister AJ,
Hollis JJ and Hurley R (2012) Anatomy of a catastrophic
wildfire: The Black Saturday Kilmore East fire. Forest
Ecology and Management 284: 269-285. http://dx.doi.
org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.02.035
17

18. CONTACT US FOR FURTHER INFORMATION COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
t 1300 363 400 CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics © 2012 CSIRO. To the extent permitted by
+61 3 9545 2176 and Statistics law, all rights are reserved and no part
e enquiries@csiro.au Charlie Hawkins of this publication covered by copyright
w www.csiro.au t +61 3 9545 8079 may be reproduced or copied in any form
m +61 438 429 280 or by any means except with the written
YOUR CSIRO e charlie.hawkins@csiro.au permission of CSIRO.
Australia is founding its future on
science and innovation. Its national
science agency, CSIRO, is a powerhouse
of ideas, technologies and skills for
building prosperity, growth, health and
sustainability. It serves governments,
industries, business and communities
across the nation.
CS ACT 2012 • DPSFlagship_DisasterMangementReport.indd
Front cover image: Queensland Police at flooded suburban street during Brisbane River floods, January 2011. Credit: Glenn Walker