Presentation by Paul Zakkour, Director of Carbon Counts at Institute side event "Making sense of CCS in the UNFCCC" in Doha at COP 18 talks.

1. CCS in developing countries
Paul Zakkour
Carbon Counts
GCCSI Side Event, COP18, Doha – 28th November 2012

2. Overview
• Where are we today?
– CCS drivers & needs
– CCS interest & commitments
– Supporting CCS through climate finance
• What is the future role for the UN?
– Centralised view
– Decentralised view
2

3. CCS potential in developing countries Abatement cost
$/tCO2 avoided
150
Drivers Non Annex I country CCS MACC - 2020
125
Cement
Climate Energy 100 Gas power
Change Security Iron & Steel
75 Coal power
Chemicals
50
New coal New large Prolong Continue Gas processing
power scale O&G O&G assets coal use 25
Abatement cost
$/tCO2 avoided 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
150 Non Annex I country CCS MACC - 2020
Abatement potential
Africa MtCO2 per year
125
Other • IEA CCS Roadmap: 116 MtCO2 avoided
100 India by 2020
75
China
• 80 MtCO2 abatement <$50/tCO2
Middle East
Other
50 developing
Asia MACCs from: Zakkour, P. D, Cook, G., Carter, A., Streck, C. and Chagas, T.
Latin America (2011) Assessment of climate finance sources to accelerate carbon capture
25
and storage deployment in developing countries. A report by Carbon Counts
and Climate Focus for the World Bank. 16th June 2011. Washington D.C.
0 Data based on IEA Technology Roadmap for CCS. © OECD/International
Energy Agency, 2009. Note: Includes cost of capture, transport and storage
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Abatement potential
MtCO2 per year

4. CCS is “nationally appropriate” for many
CHINA
Coal-fired power
GULF/EGYPT
Enhanced oil recovery
MEXICO (Cantarell)
Enhanced oil recovery
ALGERIA
Contaminated gas
INDIA (UMPPs)
Coal-fired power
SOUTH CHINA SEA
Contaminated gas
BRAZIL (Pre-Salt) BOTSWANA (Mmamabula)
Coal-fired power
Contaminated gas
Difficult oil
SOUTH AFRICA (Medupi)
Coal-fired power
4

5. CCS in NAMA contexts
• South Africa
“The development of the CCS technology...is a part of the total solution. This
technology is really welcome, and it is important that we work together moving
forward.” - President Jacob Zuma, 2011
South Africa has dedicated CCS Centre, CO2 storage map, and commitment to pilot
project by 2016
• Botswana
“Under the national emission reduction portfolio, projects and programmes will
include...CCS” - AWGLCA/.../2011/INF.1
• Algeria
Build on existing actions “including CCS” - AWGLCA/.../2011/INF.1
• Brazil
In the Pre-Salt developments....“Petrobras has decided, for environmental
reasons, it will not vent the naturally produced CO2” - Raul Estrella, Head of E&P,
Petrobras
• China & South East Asia
ADB providing technical assistance, including CCS Roadmap development
• India
Exploring CCU opportunities (e.g. algae)
5

6. How much support is needed?
Carbon market Additional public
• Investment need = US$4 bn 150
support only support required
Cost of abatement (US$ per tCO 2 avoided)
per year to 2020 125
• Carbon market US$0.3-1.6 100
bn/yr 75
• Further US$5-18 bn need to
US$ 0.9 bn
50 $50/tCO2
support investment costs 25 US$ 1.7 bn
US$ 1.6 bn
(capex) 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
5
Abatement potential
MtCO2 per year
US$ 4.2 bn
4 grants
US$ 0.9 bn
• Loan or grant finance
Additional cost (US$ billion)
lending
Additional
public
will be critical to
3 additional support
carbon
market US$ 1.7 bn
required supporting higher-cost
finance
2
$50/tCO2
leveraged
projects in sectors
credits Carbon such as power, iron &
1 $25/tCO2 market
US$ 1.6 bn
$15/tCO2
credits
support
only steel, cement etc.
0
credits 6

7. Should developed countries support CCS?
“The world doesn’t have an emissions problem, it has a Chinese
coal problem”
Source: Davis, S.J. And Caldeira, K. 2010. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. Proc. Of Natl. Academy of Sci. 7

8. Supporting CCS in fragmented market
Source: Responding to Climate Change (RTCC)
8

9. Role of UNFCCC institutions (centralised)
• Project Standards
• Host country approval LOA
• DOE Accreditation
• Project permitting
• Project Registration
• Regulatory oversight CDM EB • Monitoring
CCS WG • Project Issuance
• Project Registry
• Framework (ITL)
Host Country
DNA
Project A
CERs Scheme X
Project B
Scheme Y
Project C Tech Mech &
CTCN Scheme Z
Project D
• Technical assistance
• Technical assessments
• Capacity building
• Institutional design
9

10. Role of UNFCCC institutions (decentralised)
• Technical assistance • Project Guidelines
• Technical assessments • Verifier Guidelines
• Capacity building • Country Registry/Library
• Institutional design • Project Registry
Tech Mech & CDM EB • Framework (tracker)
CTCN CCS WG
Country A
Host Country Scheme X
Country B DNA
Scheme Y
Country C Scheme
operator Scheme Z
Country D
• Bilateral agreements/linking rules
• Project permitting
• Regulatory oversight
10

11. Recap
1. CCS is nationally appropriate for many
developing countries
2. Some countries actively pursuing CCS, and
consider part of their NAMA commitments
3. Support from Annex I countries is essential to
assist with demonstration of the technology
4. UN can continue to play an active role in
mobilising, facilitating and/or regulating CCS
within the future global carbon market
11

12. Further info in
these reports
Available at our
website
Thank you
Paul Zakkour
Email: paul.zakkour@carbon-counts.com
Web: www.carbon-counts.com