Panel 1. Tackling climate change and ensuring energy security, Philippe Benoit, IEA
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Delivered at the Global CCS Institute's Global Status of CCS: 2013 event in Seoul, 10 October 2013.
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Panel 1. Tackling climate change and ensuring energy security, Philippe Benoit, IEA
- 1. A roadmap forward CCS: Where do we go from here? GCCSI Members’ Meeting, Seoul, 10 October 2013 Philippe Benoit Head of Division, IEA © OECD/IEA 2013
- 2. Why CCS: the story remains the same Annual CO2 emissions reached record high 31,6 Gt in 2012 CCS can help to deal with emissions already “locked-in”. Trend in fuel mix 2010-2050: fossil fuels continue to dominate. CCS is the only large-scale mitigation option for many industrial sectors. © OECD/IEA 2013
- 3. CCS is part of a portfolio © OECD/IEA 2013
- 4. CCS is part of a cost-effective response Additional USD 36 trillion in investments through 2050 to reach 2DS scenario goals CCS is 10% of this… 3.6 CCS Other clean energy 36.4 … and if CCS not available, investment required in the power sector will increase by 40% © OECD/IEA 2013
- 5. CCS is ready for scale-up Assembling the parts – still a challenge • • • • Post-process capture Syngas/hydrogen capture Oxy-fuel combustion Inherent separation Capture technologies are well understood but expensive. • • • 6000km existing pipelines Existing technical standards Transport by ship (albeit in small quantities) Transport is the most technically mature step in CCS. • • • • Decades of research Natural CO2 accumulations Pilot projects Existing large-scale projects CO2 storage has been demonstrated but further experience is needed at scale. © OECD/IEA 2013
- 6. A roadmap forward © OECD/IEA 2013
- 7. A pathway for wide deployment of CCS Next seven years: Creating conditions for wide deployment 2013 2020-2030: Large-scale deployment picks up speed 2030 and beyond: CCS is mainstream 2030 2020 Vision 2020: Vision 2030: Over 30 large projects are in operation storing 50Mt CO2 per year, providing experience and enabling cost reduction. Incentive policies are in place to drive early deployment. CCS is a veritable industry. Over 2Gt CO2 is stored per year. Continued R&D and economies of scale reduce costs significantly. Business cases are consolidated and drive private investment. 2050 Vision 2050: CCS is routinely used to reduce CO₂ emissions from power and all suitable industry. The total global storage rate exceeds 7 GtCO2/yr. CCS projects are commercial under technology-neutral climate change policies worldwide in all sectors. © OECD/IEA 2013
- 8. IEA vision: 120 Gt of CO2 stored by 2050 Goal 1: 2020: Over 30 large projects are in operation in power and across a range of industrial processes, storing 50Mt CO2 per year. Goal 2: 2030: Over 2Gt of CO2 is stored per year. CCS is routinely used in power and certain industrial applications. Goal 3: 2050: Over 7Gt of CO2 is stored per year. CCS is routinely used in all applicable power and industry. © OECD/IEA 2013
- 9. Seven key actions for next seven years 1. Introduce financial support mechanisms for demonstration and early deployment (‘pay me to go’) 2. Develop laws and regulations that effectively require new-build power capacity to be CCS-ready (‘retrofit – get ready’) 3. Significantly increase efforts to improve understanding among the public and stakeholders of CCS technology (‘knowing is understanding’) 4. Implement policies that encourage storage exploration, characterisation and development for CCS projects (‘need a place to stay’). 5. Reduce the cost of electricity from power plants equipped with capture through continued technology development (’make it cheaper’). 6. Prove capture systems at pilot scale in industrial applications (‘expand into new areas’). 7. Encourage efficient development of CO2 transport infrastructure (‘get me there’). © OECD/IEA 2013
- 10. OUTREACH TO THE PUBLIC © OECD/IEA 2013
- 11. CO2 USE © OECD/IEA 2013
- 12. Moving upstream to FOSSIL FUEL production © OECD/IEA 2013
- 13. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy NOT ENOUGH © OECD/IEA 2013
- 14. Increase AMBITION © OECD/IEA 2013
- 15. THANK YOU! philippe.benoit@iea.org DOWNLOAD THE ROADMAP AT: http://www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ccsroadmap2013 © OECD/IEA 2013
Notes de l'éditeur
- Energy-related CO2 emissions were record-high in 2012, reaching over 31 Gt. This year in May, a CO2 concentration of over 400ppm was recorded for the first time in several milleniaIN the total primary energy supply, the role of fossil fuels is likely to remain very significant, even in IEA’s 2DS scenario: 45% in 2050. So we’re not getting rid of fossil fuelsCCS has the unique capability to unlock emissions that are locked-in in existing infrastructureAnd for several industries, there are no alternatives for CCS to significantly reduce emissions.
- Comparing against emissions in 6DS, the role of CCS is significant if we want to reach emissions of a 2DS world: cumulatively 14%, and share increasing to 17% in 2050.
- Additional investment to reach 2DS are USD 36 trillion. CCS is only 10% of this.CCS is also part of a cost-effective solution: if we don’t have CCS in the power sector at all before 2050 and want to reach the same level of decarbonisation in power, we will need to spend 40% more in investment.
- CCS pathway divided into three distinct phases:Next seven years creating conditions2020-2030 large-scale deployment starts2030 onwards CCS is mainstream
- Our long-term deployment challenge is tremendous. But to get us on the right pathway, we should concentrate on the next seven years. As said, the next seven years are about creating conditions and learning, much less about actual emission reductions with CCS.
- Two things to think about here:What can the volume of use be? If it’s small, it may not be of much help. Need to have millions of tons at a minimumWhat happens to the CO2 at the end? If it ends up being emitted, the use makes little or no sense from climate perspective.The prize is to find a large-scale use that would ensure large volumes and can contain CO2.