Professor John B.R. Agard gave the GWP Annual Lecture 2014 in Trinidad on June 28th.

1. CLIMATE AND WATER:
GLOBAL TO LOCAL CARIBBEAN
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLIMATE
CHANGE SCENARIOS
John Agard
University of the West Indies
john.agard@sta.uwi.edu

2. John Agard, UWI

3. • Clear correlation
between atmospheric
CO2 and temperature
over last 160,000 years
• Current level of CO2 is
outside the bounds of
natural variability
•Rate of change of CO2
is also unprecedented
THE GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
PROBLEM

4. FUTURE HUMAN INDUCED
CLIMATE CHANGE DEPENDS ON
THE DECISIONS TAKEN BY
GOVERNMENTS GLOBALLY:
If nothing is done to slow
greenhouse gas emissions. .
.
• CO2 concentrations will
likely be more than 700 ppm
by 2100
• Global average temperatures
are projected to increase
between 2.0 – 4.5 °C ???
2100

5. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
– 8.5 Wm-2 (RCP 8.5,
1350ppm CO2-e)
– 6.0 Wm-2 (RCP 6.0,
850ppm CO2-e)
– 4.5 Wm-2 (RCP 4.5,
650ppm CO2-e)
– 2.6 Wm-2 (RCP 2.6,
450ppm CO2-e)

6. John Agard, UWI
SOURCE: IPCC Wk Gp 1 Ar5
PROJECTED
PRECIPITATION CHANGE
IN THE CARIBBEAN
THE
REGIONAL
LEVEL

7. John Agard, UWI
SOURCE: IPCC Wk Gp 1 Ar5
PROJECTED
TEMPERATURE CHANGE
IN THE CARIBBEAN

8. John Agard, UWI
PROJECTED
PRECIPITATION CHANGE
IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
Pre
THE
LOCAL LEVEL

9. John Agard, UWI
PROJECTED
PRECIPITATION CHANGE
BARBADOS

10. John Agard, UWI
PROJECTED
PRECIPITATION CHANGE
SAINT LUCIA

11. Health
Insect vectors and
infectious diseases
Agriculture
Crop yields
Irrigation demands
Watershed Management
Changes in water supply
Water quality
Coastal Areas
Erosion of beaches (loss of coral
reefs). Inundation of coastal
wetlands. Costs to protect coastal
communities
Forests
Change in forest composition
Shift geographic range of forests
Forest health and productivity
Carbon sequestration
Species and Natural Areas
Shift in ecological zones
Loss of habitat and species
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Climate Changes
Sea Level Rise
Temperature
Precipitation
Tropical
Storms
WATER AVAILABILITY IS A
PART OF EVERY ASPECT OF
THE DIRECT IMPACT OF
CLIMATE CHANGE

12. John Agard, UWI
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE HAS 2 COMPONENTS:
1. The physical climate signal e.g. rainfall
intensity
2. The socio-economic and political component

13. John Agard, UWI
8.5
6.0
4.5
2.6
MitigationChallenge
AdaptationChallenge Adaptive Capacity
Residual Impact
Adaptation
Mitigation
LOW HIGHMEDIUM
Mitigation Capacity
Socioeconomic DevelopmentClimateSignal
e.g. Haiti e.g. Trinidad & Tobago
e.g. Trinidad
e.g. St Lucia
HDI
AGRICULTURE
ECONOMY
TOURISM
ECONOMY
INDUSTRIAL
ECONOMYRCP

14. Caribbean Small Island Scenario Construction
Global
Regional
National/Local
Shared Socio-economic
Policy Assumption
Scenarios
Small Island Developing State
Scenarios
Projected CC impacts on crops,
water availability, forest, coastal
protection, tourism etc.
Downscaled temperature &
precipitation, sea level rise
Commodity prices e.g. oil &
gas, agricultural products,
Investment capital
Agricultural/Mineral economy: e.g. Jamaica
Tourism economy: e.g. Barbados, St Lucia
Industrial economy: e.g. Trinidad & Tobago ©John Agard, UWI

15. SSP narratives
+ RCP quantification
SSP database
(pop, GDP, urbanization)
Scenarios of future Caribbean political
economy
Industrial
(Trinidad &
Tobago)
Tourism-based
(Barbados &
St. Lucia)
Agricultural/
Mineral
(Jamaica)
Health, coasts, forests,
biodiversity, cocoa
Freshwater, forests Sweet potato
Regional typology
Global (RCP/SSP)
Local “windows”

16. ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
IMPACTS
SOCIETY
•People
•Lifestyles
•Culture
•Social
organization
ENVIRONMENT
•Land
•Water
•Air
•Biodiversity
•Minerals
ECONOMY
•Agriculture
•Industry
•Transport
•Households
ONSHORE
ECONOMY
OFFSHORE
ECONOMY
SUGAR,OIL
IDEAS
MONETARY
CAPITAL,
TECHNICAL &
MANAGERIAL
SKILLS
STAPLES FOR METROPOLITAN
CONSUMPTION INCLUDING
CULTURAL SERVICES e.g TOURISM.
PROJECTED GLOBAL COMMODITY
PRICES TO BE MODELED BASED ON
SSP-RCP SCENARIOS
e.g.
INDUSTRIAL
POLLUTION,
e.g. WATER
POLLUTION
e.g. CLEAN
WATER
© John Agard, UWI
Neo-Plantation
Economy Logic
e.g. WATER FOR
INDUSTRY

17. John Agard, UWI
Dr Adrian Cashman
CERMES, UWI, Barbados

18. 18
Varietal differences:
•Colour (Flesh and skin)
•Texture
• Foliage
Source: CARDI 2010
2. Methodology: Five Varieties
Food Security Modelling-Sweet Potatoes
Dale Rankine, UWI, Mona Jamaica

19. 19
Devon
Ebony
Park
Passley
Gardnes
Bodles*
* *
*
2. Methodology: Site Locations

20. 2. The Methodology: The FAO
AquaCrop Model
20
The Conceptual
Framework
•B=WP x ΣTr
[Biomass]
(ET=E+T)
•WP normalised for
ET and CO2
• Y=B x HI [Yield]
•Robust, Accurate
yet simple
Conceptual
Framewor
k of
AquaCrop
Source:
Hsiao et al
2011

21. Results: Model Parameterization
(Devon vs Ebony Park)
21
0.000
5.000
10.000
32 65 96 137
Yield(t/ha)
DAP
Ebony Park-Rainfed (2013)
Measured Simulated

22. 3. Results: 2012/2013
Parameterization(Summarised)
22
Year Treatment Canopy Cover Biomass Yield
Devon RSME (%) E RSME (t/ha) E RSME (t/ha) E
2012
Irrigated 44.32 -8.69 20.33 -1.09 3.77 0.13
Rainfed 31.21 -0.97 9.73 -1.02 6.40 -0.13
2013
Irrigated 3.37 0.99 2.95 0.67 2.29 -0.05
Rainfed 8.01 0.91 4.18 0.35 1.22 0.75
Ebony Park
2013
Irrigated 29.88 -1.14 8.87 0.12 2.59 0.63
Rainfed 21.86 0.38 2.08 0.84 3.69 -14.02
•Improvement in model parameterization (2012 vs 2013)
•Enhanced model performance (in 2013): prediction of yields for both
Rainfed (Devon) and Irrigated (Ebony) plants








N
i i
N
i ii
OO
SO
E
1
2
1
2
)(
)(
1

23. TROPICAL STORMS
COASTAL
FLOODING
WIND RAINFALL
Storm surge
Waves
+
RSLR (climate
change)
DROUGHTS
Understanding the Economics of Climate Change Adaptation (ECA) in
Trinidad and Tobago

24. 

  ,
1
, i
n
i i
j
ji jD VH
DAMAGE = α ∙ HAZARD ∙ VULNERABILITY
HAZARDcharacterization
VULNERABILITYcharacterization
4. TROPICAL STORMS
4.1. METHODOLOGY
INDEX DAMAGE SCALE
1 Very low
2 Low
3 Medium
4 High
5 Very High
WIND (km/h) INDEX
0-40 1
40-90 2
90-130 3
130-180 4
more than 180 5
WIND (km/h) INDEX DAMAGE SCALE
0-40 1 Very low
40-90 2 Low
90-130 3 Medium
130-180 4 High
more than 180 5 Very High
WIND(km/h)INDEXDAMAGESCALE
0-401Verylow
40-902Low
90-1303Medium
130-1804High
morethan1805VeryHigh
1 2 3 4 5
2 4 6 8 10
3 6 9 12 15
4 8 12 16 20
5 10 15 20 25

25. WIND AND
RAINFALL
DISSAGREGATION BASED ON
ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS
4. TROPICAL STORMS
4.2. RECEPTORS

26. COASTAL
FLOODING
DISSAGREGATION BASED ON
ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS
4. TROPICAL STORMS
4.2. RECEPTORS

27. , ,
1
n
i i i j i j
j
D V H

 CALIBRATION OF THE DAMAGE
FUNCTION:
Ranking TC event Loss (USD)
Most severe Flora 1963 299,359,310
Second most severe Not named 1933 54,901,280
Third most severe Ivan 2004 34,111,016
Calibration of the
damage functions (α) 4. TROPICAL STORMS
4.3. CALIBRATION
Pragmatic approach: relationship between
historical events and reported damages
(economical losses).
The historical database
will condition the
fitting of the α
parameter
In this project only 3 events
with economical loss reported

28. Tropical Cyclones (TC)
Historical TC selection
Stochastic simulation
Representative TC (MDA)
Dynamical modelling
Coastal FloodingRainfall Wind
Reconstruction (RBF)
Hidromet-Ranking Vortex
H2D
SWAN
Hazard
4. TROPICAL STORMS
4.4. DAMAGE

29. 29
Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate change adaptation measures for
Trinidad and Tobago
Action code Title Total cost Total benefit Net present value Pay back (years) Benefit-Cost Ratio
TTA 1 National Building Code $4,529,327 $72,151,025 $40,675,033 3 15.9
TTA 2 Construction of dikes in coastal areas $85,977,904 $6,825,496 -$55,532,774 146 0.1
TTA 3
Meteorological alert System connected to the Monitoring
System
$41,000 $4,179,913 $2,923,547 0.1 101.9
TTA 5 Social Awareness Program $198,787 $98,559 -$80,224 ∞ 0.5
TTA 4 Emergency Protocols
$1,659,793 $3,767,319 $1,489,173 0 2.3
TTA 6 Institutional Training Program
TTA 7 Rainwater harvesting $1,714,977 $1,180,476 -$493,475 25 0.7
TTA 8 Infrastructure and Building Reinforcement $61,820,734 $27,911,274 -$26,705,453 35 0.5
TTA 9 Retention ponds $279,616 $47,027 -$180,117 ∞ 0.2
TTA 10 Filter Strips $487,080 $356,132 -$119,458 25 0.7
TTA 11 Permeable pavements $375,536,762 $38,897,785 -$240,055,769 ∞ 0.1
TTA 12 Beach nourishment $23,688,332 $20,736,386 -$5,810,982 19 0.9
TTA 13 Mangrove planting $744,188 $71,348,613 $40,273,146 5.1 95.9
TTA 14 Agricultural Insurance Program $62,850 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TTA 15 Agriculture & Climate Change Research Unit $4,455,439 $986,772 -$2,544,836 ∞ 0.2
TTA 16 Green Roofs $1,055,220 $1,786,554 $213,421 10 1.7

30. Mosquitoes Dengue virus Environment Humans
Epidemiology Factors
Human Health Modelling
Professor Dave D. Chadee
Department of Life Sciences,
University of the West Indies, St.
Augustine, Trinidad, West Indies.

31. Forest Density Maps – all species combined
Forest Modelling
Dr Shobha Maharaj, Department of Life Sciences, UWI, Trinidad and Tobago

32. John Agard, UWI

36. Business as
Usual
Security First Sustainability
First
Scenarios for 2020 and beyond
policy reform
market forces
breakdown
fortress world
new sustainability
eco-communalism
•Globalization evolves
gradually
•Capitalist values
spread
•Developing countries
like T&T converge
toward rich-country
patterns of
development
•Social, environmental
and economic
instability amplify
•Civilized norms erode
•New values and
institutions ascend
•Human solidarity
strengthens
•Deep respect for
nature becomes norm
Variations….
Comprehensive
government
initiatives seek to
attain social and
environmental
goals
Powerful global and
local actors
advance the
priority of
economic growth
An authoritarian
response to
security concerns –
– elites retreat to
protected enclaves
Conflicts and crises
spiral out of control
and institutions
collapse
A highly localist
vision that is a
strong theme
within the anti-
globalization
movement
Seeks to change the
character of global
civilization rather
than retreat into
localism…
..validates global
solidarity, cultural
cross-fertilization
and economic
connectedness..
..in quest of a
humanistic,
ecological and
liberatory
transition
Sustainable
Development

37. Dimensions of Transition
Values
Knowledge
Demographic
Social
Economic
Governance
Technology
… counter
consumerism,
individualism,
domination of
nature
…highlight
systemic
approaches
…stabilize
populations and
create sustainable
communities
…ensure rights,
eradicate poverty,
celebrate diversity
…make the
economy a means
of serving people
and preserving
nature
…build
stakeholder
partnerships at
all levels
…rely on
renewable
resources,
industrial ecology
A Great Transition would involve
changes in all aspects of culture…

38. Change Agents in the Transition
to Sustainability
Intergovernmental
organizations
Transnational
corporationsCivil society
An aware and
engaged public
Will the political will
emerge?
Will civil society overcome
fragmentation and begin to
unify around a common
vision?
Will corporations become
responsible national
citizens?
The answers depend on the
quality of awareness and
engagement of the citizens
of the world…
…there will be no Transition
to Sustainability without
citizen action led by a a
network of NGO’s & CBO’s.

39. THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION
John Agard, UWI