1. Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposition and The Market Viability of Nuclear Energy Lorna A. Greening International Energy Workshop Stanford University June 26, 2007

8. Nuclear Technologies and Materials Flows High Heat Release (HHR) FP Transuranics (TRU) Minor Actinides (MA) US Surplus Weapons Grade Pu Reactor Grade Pu (3 vectors) Natural U as UF 6 US Surplus HEU LEU from Russian Surplus HEU Recovered Irradiated LEU Depleted U Natural U Mining / Milling (3 cost steps) Imports UF 6 to UO 2 UO 2 to UF 6 Gaseous Diffusion Gas Centrifuge Laser Isotope UOX Fabrication MOX Fabrication Other Fuel Forms: Metal, (An)N, (An)C, .. Present-day LWR (B ~ 38 MWd/kg) ALWR-UOX (B ~ 55 MWd/kg) ALWR-MOX (B ~ 49 MWd/kg) Thermal GCR Fast Reactor Concepts On-site wet On-site dry Off-site interim SF storage PUREX UREX/UREX+ TRUEX or similar Aqueous separation of Cs, Sr, I, Tc Pyrometallurgical separations HEU downblending (UNH process) HLW vitrification SF conditioning / encapsulation Separated actinide and FP storage Materials credit at end of forecast Yucca Mountain Resources Materials Conversion Enrichment Fabrication Irradiation SF Storage Reprocessing Waste Management Planned / Possible Implemented Transport costs assessed but not shown. Gray boxes represent level of resolution of previous MARKAL model.

11. Example Disposal Cost Comparison

12. Example of Reprocessing: Existing U38 Mass (kgIHM) of SNF going to YUCCA Mountain

13. Resource Impacts of Selected Nuclear Technologies 0 0 [19.7 tonne DU for CR 1 near-breeder] 232 [0 for TRU burner] [20.5 tonne depleted uranium (DU)] 234 to 198 Uranium Resource Consumption [ton U nat / GW-yr (e)] -1140 7.6 to 4.5 [150 to 250 MWd/kg] Accelerator Driven System 0 [CR 1] -450 [CR 0.5] 21.6 to 4.8 [CR 1 to CR 0.5] Fast Spectrum Reactor 167 [U fuelled] -759 [TRU burner] 6.4 to 1.7 [120 to 470 MWd/kg] HTGR (Thermal Spectrum) -389 22.2 [49 MWd/kg] MOX Fuelled LWR 343 to 257 29.8 to 19.8 [38 to 55 MWd/kg] LWR – Uranium Fuel Net Transuranic Production [kg TRU / GWhe] SNF Production [tonne SNF / GW-yr (e)]

14. Further Gains from ‘Advanced Nuclear Technologies’ a. Less ~10% of net electric power required to drive the accelerator.

15. Construction Costs are Uncertain Of the major generation technologies in use today, construction costs for new nuclear facilities are the most difficult to quantify. In a survey of nuclear industry executives, the perceived risk associated with construction costs and times was rated as ‘very high’ – far higher than plant O&M, fuel cycle costs, or disaster preparedness: Highest Estimate OECD Lowest Estimate 4700 8 2100 4 1450 3 FR 2300 8 2130 4 1000 3 HTGR 4000 12 1700 4 1000 3 LWR Overnight Costs [$ / kWe]; Construction Time [yr]

16. Forecast of Electricity Demand (by Generation Fuel) Billion kWh

17. Forecast of Nuclear Capacity by Type GW Existing U38 HTGRS /Conventional Fuel Advanced ‘ PWRS’ Transmutation/Accelerators

18. Comparison of Our Capacity Forecast with EIA Advanced Nuclear, AEO 2006 GW EIA Current Fleet Advanced PWRs HTGRs – Driver / Transmuter Fuel HTGRs – UOX Fuel

20. Factors That Could Affect Outcome: Political/Regulatory Factors + + + o - Implementation of Carbon Taxes or Emission Permits + + + o - More Efficient NRC Site and Facility Licensing + + - o + More Stringent Repository Performance Criteria - - + + + Opposition to Licensing or Operation of Reprocessing Facilities - + - + + Regulatory Delays in Licensing of Interim Storage or Expanded Cooling Storage - + - o + Delay in Opening of Yucca Mountain Unconstrained Repository, Advanced Fuel Cycle Constrained Repository, Advanced Fuel Cycle Unconstrained Repository Constrained Repository Nuclear Phaseout Risk Factor (+ = Factor increases likelihood of outcome relative to reference case) (- = Factor decreases likelihood) (o = Factor does not strongly affect likelihood)

22. Backup

25. Distributed Electricity Generation (DG) versus Central Electricity Generation (CG) Dispatched Central Generation Small Distributed Generators Distributed Generation Clearinghouse Local-Use Distributed Generation To Grid To Grid Transmission Losses Transmission Losses Central Generation Consumption Distributed Generation Consumption from Grid Total Consumption from Grid Total Consumption from DG Total Electricity Consumption

26. Factors That Could Affect Outcome: Market Factors + + o o o Aggressive Growth in Demand for Hydrogen + + + o - Aggregate Electricity Demand Growth Greater than Expected + + - - + Increased Disposal Cost Volatility - - o o o Delay in Availability of Advanced Technologies - o - - + Scarcity of Uranium Resource + + + o - Increased Fossil Fuel Price Volatility Unconstrained Repository, Advanced Fuel Cycle Constrained Repository, Advanced Fuel Cycle Unconstrained Repository Constrained Repository Nuclear Phaseout Risk Factor (+ = Factor increases likelihood of outcome relative to reference case) (- = Factor decreases likelihood) (o = Factor does not strongly affect likelihood)

27. Factors That Could Affect Outcome: Security Factors + + - - o Repository Becomes a ‘Plutonium Mine’ - - + + + Propagation / Dispersion of Advanced Reprocessing or Enrichment Technologies - - + + + Security of Separated Actinides - - - o + Transportation of SNF + + - o + Nuclear Materials Dispersed at Generation and Interim Storage Facilities Unconstrained Repository, Advanced Fuel Cycle Constrained Repository, Advanced Fuel Cycle Unconstrained Repository Constrained Repository Nuclear Phaseout Risk Factor (+ = Factor increases likelihood of outcome relative to reference case) (- = Factor decreases likelihood) (o = Factor does not strongly affect likelihood)