1. Thinking About Energy PolicyEngineer Edition November 18, 2009 1 Peter M. O’Neill November 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

2. Introduction November 18, 2009 2 This is a really complicated issue Solution possibilities change as technology changes Give you facts & tools to analyze these opportunities as technology and knowledge evolve. Put aside political passion for what technologically works Intended to be synopsis of half-day seminar Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

3. Outline Policy objectives Understanding the problem Some principals Source to load analysis Temporal matching of source to load Source diversity: temporal & geographic Conclusions Skipping economics because it’s a huge topic by itself. November 18, 2009 3 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

4. Popular Energy Policy Objectives November 18, 2009 4 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

5. Objective:National energy independence November 18, 2009 5 Stop or avoid importing oil, (or future gas, uranium, …): To not depend on unstable or evil countries Reduce trade imbalance Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

6. U.S. Oil Sources by Country November 18, 2009 6 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill Although we are the third largest crude oil producer, most of the petroleum we use is imported. Western Hemisphere nations provide about half of our imported petroleum. Net imports have generally increased (58% in 2008) since 1985 while U.S. production fell and consumption grew.

7. Objective: Reduce global warming November 18, 2009 7 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions: To avoid effects at home. As moral imperative regarding rest of world being world’s 2nd largest emitter of GHG. Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

8. GH Gas Concentration Trends November 18, 2009 8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

9. Objective: Replace dwindling energy resources November 18, 2009 9 Fossil fuel is finite by nature - “Peak oil” Extraction harms environment Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

10. Peak Oil November 18, 2009 10 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill New oil fields harder to find, more expensive to produce. World demand continues to increase.

11. Understanding the Problem November 18, 2009 11 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

12. Why US & World At Critical Juncture Explosions in per capita consumption: Consumer products Transportation/mobility Urbanization/housing – more urban than rural Expansion of consumption to greater portion of world Every nation wants & is entitled to a good life. Planetary scale effects No unsettled or “undiscovered” land – all humanity in contact. Natural resources in any location accessible to people in any other location. But can’t maintain that other populations can’t use or aren’t entitled to resources in their lands. Human activity affecting composition of atmosphere & water Population explosion, 1950 -> 2009: USA – 152 -> 307 million World – 2.5 -> 6.8 billion November 18, 2009 12 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

13. U.S. Energy Consumption Trend November 18, 2009 13 Moved Industry Overseas Serious Conservation Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

14. U.S. Energy Flows – 2008 November 18, 2009 14 Quadrillion BTU US Energy Info. Admin. – Annual Energy Review 2008 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

15. Electricity Sources November 18, 2009 15 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

16. U.S. CO2 Sources - 2008 November 18, 2009 16 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

17. SomePrincipals November 18, 2009 17 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

18. Capacity vs. Generation November 18, 2009 18 Capacity – maximum power plant can deliver. Determines capital cost Capacity installation gets attention but wrong measure of impact. Generation – energy plant can deliver over long time. Determines: Revenue Consumption & pollution from fossil fuels Fuel & pollution reduction from renewable sources Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

19. Availability & Ramp Rate November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 19 All MW of capacity do not produce equivalent generation, hence fuel or CO2 savings.

20. Energy Source vs. Carrier November 18, 2009 20 Source Energy provided by nature either as we use it or from storage in geologic time. Sun – order of increasing time lag: Solar radiation Wind Biomass: wood, ethanol Fossil fuels: petroleum, gas, coal Nuclear material Carrier Medium for transporting energy from primary source to end use or for short term storage. Electricity Synthetic fuels: hydrogen, syngas Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

21. Mass Energy Densities November 18, 2009 21 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill Log scale! Electrical Thermal Chemical

22. Energy Burden November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 22 Takes energy to extract, refine, transport energy from primary source. Energy burden – ratio of energy consumed in the above to energy delivered.

23. Embodied Energy November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 23 Takes energy to build generation & transportation facilities. Leads to concept of energy payback time for generating facility.

24. Power Area Density November 18, 2009 24 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill The problem with biofuels: Sun annual average flux, latitude 40º – 232 W/m2 Photosynthesis in switchgrass – 0.27 W/m2 , 0.12% efficiency. Photovoltaic at 15.5% - 36 W/m2 , 133x better Concentrating solar thermal @ 40% - 93 W/m2 Coal mine or oil field many times higher Fossil fuels store 10’s of millions of years of solar energy collected by inefficient photosynthesis. No way fossil fuel can last many centuries at current use rates. Would be great to capture & store sun’s energy through photochemical reaction that is much more efficient than natural photosynthesis. Bio-engineered algae? Photolytic reactor?

25. CO2 Emission Rates November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 25 Determined by ratio of carbon to hydrogen in the molecules.

26. The Cycle – Source to Load Analysis November 18, 2009 26 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

27. Internal Combustion Car – Motivations November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 27 All High energy density fuel for long range. Fast fueling. Simple technology. Low capital cost. Gasoline & Diesel Easy handling. Traditional availability. Natural gas Lower emissions. New US sources – shale & coal beds.

28. Electric Car – Motivations November 18, 2009 28 No emissions during use. Conversion efficiency Internal combustion engine – 25% Electric motor – 82%, 3.3x better Use electric storage to capture braking energy – Regenerative braking – Wheel to tank path. Create mobility from stationary primary energy source. Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

29. Hybrid Gasoline/Electric Car – Motivations November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 29 “Combustion” Hybrid All energy comes from gasoline. Use electric storage to optimize ICE operation. Regenerative braking. “Plug” Hybrid Operate as, & with advantages of, electric car for short trips. Extend range with ICE.

30. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car – Motivations November 18, 2009 30 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill No emissions during use. Conversion efficiency Internal combustion engine – 25% Fuel cell (60%) × Electric motor (82%) – 49% Can make hydrogen from any primary energy source.

31. Representative Cars November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 31 Similar size cars.

32. Attraction of Transport Fuels – Tank to Wheel Analysis November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 32 Distance travelled from energy stored onboard.

33. Full Story – Well to Wheel Analysis November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 33 Distance travelled from primary energy source. Quite different!

34. Tank to Wheel / Well to Wheel November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 34

35. Gasoline & Hybrid Analyses November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 35

36. Electrical Generation to Vehicle November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 36 Renewable sources don’t directly emit net GHG so much better charging source.

37. Electric Car Analysis November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 37 Can manufacturer’s reported 5.3x MJ/km vs. 3.3x motor efficiency of electric to ICE be due entirely to regenerative braking?

38. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car Analysis November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 38

39. Conclusions on Car Fuels Combustion/electric hybrid advances all 3 objectives. Hydrogen fuel cell present energy efficiency & CO2 emission worse than gasoline ICE. Only helps independence if cheap, plentiful stationary source available like nuclear was supposed to be. Must improve H2 generation, storage, transport. Electric can advance all 3 objectives. In exchange for cost & limited range. Better way to use NG for transport than CNG. Will make sense with more renewable generation. November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 39

40. It’s About Time – TemporalMatching of Source to Load November 18, 2009 40 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

41. Electricity Load Duration Curve Short duration demand peaks set system size. Demand response can reduce system size & same energy. November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 41 EPRI – “The Green Grid”

42. How Well Could PhotovoltaicsMatch Loads in Texas? Canyon Abilene Overton El Paso Austin Del Rio Corpus Christi Laredo Edinburg Courtesy of Walter Short, NREL Simulated 16 GW of PV generating 11% of load at 9 sites spread uniformly around Texas and compared generation with load Min base Load op. Surplus Spring Day Summer Day 42

43. How Well Could PhotovoltaicsMatch Loads in Texas? (2) Courtesy of Walter Short, NREL 43

44. Solar Generation Match to Load 1st year of operation of my PV system Rating: 2.1 kW Energy produced: 3,327 kWh Energy consumed: 5,493 kWh Read meters weekly November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 44

45. Stochastic Modeling of Source & Load Computation: Assume instantaneous match = net match over interval, i.e. some storage. Determine surplus or deficit at each weekly interval. Sum intervals over year. Net = TotalPVGen/TotalLoad Load Met = 1-TotalDeficit/TotalLoad Observations: Sized to use all I produce Make large surpluses to avoid deficit Would be more dramatic with hourly data. November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 45

46. Source Diversity November 18, 2009 46 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill Spatial & temporal diversity Wind blows different places at different times Sun can power evening loads to east Clouds are spotty Place sources closer to loads, reducing transmission loss Consequences Must connect renewable sources to grid Must build a lot more transmission Transmission will become more expensive because it will only be used intermittently More difficult to maintain grid stability

47. How Well Could Wind GenerationMatch Loads in the West? Courtesy of Walter Short, NREL Results from Optimizing Wind and PV Sites to Match Loads in the WECC Surplus Wind Shortfall In generation 47 80% Wind & PV Only Wind & PV

48. Storage for Temporal Load Offset November 18, 2009 48 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill Ice Energy, Inc. ice storage air conditioning. Solves root cause of peak load problem. Thermal efficiency through non-cycling design & off peak consumption. Stores energy off-peak,dispatching it on-peak Predictable and measurable

49. Combined Heat & Power Where does waste energy in electrical generation go? Low temperature heat. What use is low temperature heat? Space, water, process heating. Solution Generate electricity in building that needs heating. But heat not always needed when electricity is. Freewatt® reciprocating engine Electricity: 1.2 kW, 26% Heat: 3.46 kW, 74% Close to my 23%/77% Elect./Heat Microturbine >75% efficient November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 49 Honda/ECR Freewatt Micro Combined Heat & Power example residential installation

50. Demand Management Electric utility model has been to vary generation to meet the load. Load has changed Higher peak to average with AC More is optional or deferrable: laundry, dishes, computer print & backup, landscape lights Renewable sources not as dispatchable or schedulable. Control & communication technology now enable better matching of intermittent loads to intermittent sources  Smart Grid. Significant distributed storage possible: Domestic hot water Ice for air conditioning PHEV – do I want to donate my expensive battery cycles? November 18, 2009 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill 50

51. Can Individuals Afford Clean Energy? November 18, 2009 51 Take my utility expenses 2 people, 2 cars, 2 cell phones Efficient house Live close to activities Count all electric as purchased from utility (ignore PV) Energy only 30% Discretionary > 32% A lot didn’t exist 20 years ago but has great use Could make room for substantial energy cost increase Wouldn’t get more use for it Would use less Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

52. Population Growth November 18, 2009 52 310 Due to population growth 80% Reduction from today Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill

53. Meeting the Objectives Independence Replace oil for transport with gas, electric not from oil. Global Warming Replace coal for electric generation with nuclear, wind, solar. Replace oil for transport with gas, electric after replacing coal generation. Resource Depletion Nuclear electric with advanced breeder fuel cycle. Wind & solar electric. Electric transport. Solar & electric geo-backed heat pump for space & process heat. All Domestic renewables November 18, 2009 53 Thinking About Energy Policy Peter M. O'Neill