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Are You ready for the next generation of cars? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Well soon you will have that choice and here is why:  1. Converging existing technology in a new way   2. The regulators are demanding it 3. Will dramatically reduce carbon emissions 4. The two largest consumer segments will demand it
A brief history perspective Mechanical Intelligent Autonomous 2005- 2015? Cars begin to do the driving in order to: Reduce accidents; Reduce traffic; Reduce emissions; Help consumers remain independent 1970’s to 2005 Chips and boards begin entering cars for fuel efficiency and driver safety. From 1900 to 1970’s Car systems were largely mechanical
Convergence of existing technologies Radar  Sensors GPS V2V V2I High- speed Chips Intelligent Transportation
Inventory of Technologies: GPS V2V Radar &  Camera Sensors V2I ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regulators Globally Demanding Change All states must fit Federal Interstates with HOV lane for autonomous vehicles by 2015 U.S. Department of Transportation Fatalities per 10,000 vehicles cut by 40% by 2010 Japan’s Ministry of Transportation Reduce traffic fatalities by ½ by 2010 (incl. pedestrians) European Union 50% reduction in fatalities within 10 years Federal Highway & Traffic Safety Institute  Mandates to Manufacturers
Manufacturers Respond In order to meet the ½ and zero goals, we must build vehicles that reduce accidents themselves Nissan Be the first to make a collision free vehicle Honda When a driver cannot respond, we will make a car that can.  GM ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) will meet mandates Toyota 50% reduction of ALL accidents within 15 years DaimlerChrysler  Manufacturer Committments
Regulator motivators Idle time – 2.9 billion gallons of fuel  58 fully loaded supertankers 2006 – record levels of CO2, 0.5% increase 38 hours idle in traffic per American  4.2 billion hours nationwide Cost estimated $78.2 billion or $710 per driver Over 40,000 fatalities per year since 1994 2006 loss & crash related expenses estimated at $230 billion Emissions Congestion Fatalities
Disrupting the Weight= Fuel & Emissions Cycle 2.  Safer Cars= Higher Structural  Safety 1.  Driver Error= 90%+ all  accidents ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],5. Less  Reinforcement = Lower vehicle weight 4. Collision  Free = less  reinforcement 3. Structural Safety=  Heavier Vehicles=  Less Fuel  efficiencies
Welcome to the “Hour Glass Society”: Youth Bulge & Boomers Don’t care about control:  want multi-tasking Age 0-15 Approx: 10% of  Pop Age  40-55 Approx: 15% of  Pop Age 15-40 Approx: 30% of  Pop Age 55+ Approx: 45% of  Pop Want to retain independence
Replicating human actions and responses to the environment  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Challenge – combining these systems into a viable, affordable solution
Steps towards autonomous vehicles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lessons from DARPA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Autonomous vs. collision free ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evolutionary process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evolutionary process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evolutionary process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evolutionary process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact on State Farm ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fly-by-wire ,[object Object]
Liability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Liability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Future of driver liability insurance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Short run vs. long run ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Science fiction? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Will Cars Always Be Cars

  • 1.
  • 2. Well soon you will have that choice and here is why: 1. Converging existing technology in a new way 2. The regulators are demanding it 3. Will dramatically reduce carbon emissions 4. The two largest consumer segments will demand it
  • 3. A brief history perspective Mechanical Intelligent Autonomous 2005- 2015? Cars begin to do the driving in order to: Reduce accidents; Reduce traffic; Reduce emissions; Help consumers remain independent 1970’s to 2005 Chips and boards begin entering cars for fuel efficiency and driver safety. From 1900 to 1970’s Car systems were largely mechanical
  • 4. Convergence of existing technologies Radar Sensors GPS V2V V2I High- speed Chips Intelligent Transportation
  • 5.
  • 6. Regulators Globally Demanding Change All states must fit Federal Interstates with HOV lane for autonomous vehicles by 2015 U.S. Department of Transportation Fatalities per 10,000 vehicles cut by 40% by 2010 Japan’s Ministry of Transportation Reduce traffic fatalities by ½ by 2010 (incl. pedestrians) European Union 50% reduction in fatalities within 10 years Federal Highway & Traffic Safety Institute Mandates to Manufacturers
  • 7. Manufacturers Respond In order to meet the ½ and zero goals, we must build vehicles that reduce accidents themselves Nissan Be the first to make a collision free vehicle Honda When a driver cannot respond, we will make a car that can. GM ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) will meet mandates Toyota 50% reduction of ALL accidents within 15 years DaimlerChrysler Manufacturer Committments
  • 8. Regulator motivators Idle time – 2.9 billion gallons of fuel 58 fully loaded supertankers 2006 – record levels of CO2, 0.5% increase 38 hours idle in traffic per American 4.2 billion hours nationwide Cost estimated $78.2 billion or $710 per driver Over 40,000 fatalities per year since 1994 2006 loss & crash related expenses estimated at $230 billion Emissions Congestion Fatalities
  • 9.
  • 10. Welcome to the “Hour Glass Society”: Youth Bulge & Boomers Don’t care about control: want multi-tasking Age 0-15 Approx: 10% of Pop Age 40-55 Approx: 15% of Pop Age 15-40 Approx: 30% of Pop Age 55+ Approx: 45% of Pop Want to retain independence
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.