01_Day_1_Oxburgh

Policies, Politics and Greenhouse Gases Ron Oxburgh

Twentieth Century ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Science ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Practical Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Energy Policy Drivers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Responses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Challenge of Infrastructure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Implication of Infrastructure ‘Drag’ ,[object Object]

Expansion in Energy Demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

GDP & Energy use – various countries 2001

Increase in Energy Use vs GDP 1971-2001, Malaysia & Korea KOREA MALAYSIA 1971

Primary Energy / CO2 Iceland Sw N Kuw

People and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest 2002 6.2 B 2050 9.2 B

Implications of a larger and more prosperous world population ,[object Object]

Coal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Coal is relatively abundant – Energy Value of Reserves Data from BP Statistical Review

Coal can be dirty – Kg CO2 / MJ energy Energy produced depends on fuel and efficiency of conversion

Main Exporters and Importers of oil & gas EXPORT IMPORT

Approximate real terms fuel price ranges 1985 – ‘05

Implications of Coal ,[object Object],[object Object]

Where Next? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Science Policy Politics Industry Technology

The Way Forward ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

2002 Primary energy sources EU 25 Transport vehicles air

2002 Emissions by Primary energy source – EU 25 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Total 1.3 GT pa

Assumptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Reactions to Climate Threat ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A strategy to 2025 - Transport ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Electricity – Approximate Installed Capacity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Balance Sheet – Final Use (rounded figures) 1.04 1.3 TOTAL 0.2 0.32 10 14 Air, sea, chems etc. 0.16 0.24 8 10 Vehicles EJ EJ 0.68 0.74 730 450 Electricity CO2 G tonnes GW GW 2025 2002 2025 2002

OIL GAS 0 20 40 60 80 Biomass Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal COAL -1.4 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 2002 2025 Sequestration Transport changes Gas for power generation More wind and solar Carbon emissions, GT Energy, EJ EU-25 Energy and Carbon Changes to 2025 20% emissions reduction

The Transition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Politics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Energy Use in ‘the 25’ Accession Countries

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Populations and Emissions Developed Emerging Developing Poorest

01_Day_1_Oxburgh

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