1. AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level
Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk Avg
S&P 6 months forward performance
80.0% 50.0%
Maximum bearish
In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment
Bearish Sentiment and JSCO Pain Index
sentiment in 21 years 40.0%
70.0% was nearly as high as it was in March
2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the
30.0%
S&P 6 mo. fws performance
60.0%
black dots), share prices rose higher.
20.0%
50.0%
10.0%
40.0% 0.0%
-10.0%
30.0%
-20.0%
20.0%
-30.0%
10.0%
-40.0%
0.0% -50.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08

2. 2.0 16000
1.8
14000
1.6
12000
1.4
JSCO Pain Index
10000
1.2
DJIA
1.0 8000
0.8
6000
0.6
4000
0.4
2000
0.2
0.0 0
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
JSCO Pain Index µ DJIA

3. JSCO Pain Index
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
JSCO Pain Index Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
µ
Jun-08
Jul-08
DJIA
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
DJIA