Uncertainty handling within the Decision support system RODOS

1. Approaches to visualisation of uncertainties to decision makers in an operational Decision Support System W. Raskob 1 , F. Gering 2 , V. Bertsch 3 1 Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, IKET, Karlsruhe, Germany 2 Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Neuherberg, Germany 3 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Karlsruhe, Germany ISCRAM 2009, 10.-13-05.2009

4. Exposure during and after a nuclear accident Dose rate Time Accident happened Hours Days Weeks Months Years R. Mustonen Ingested with water Inhaled from plume External from plume External from deposition Ingested with food Total

5. Information processing in RODOS Meteorological and Release Data, Radiological Monitoring Data GIS Data, National Data Base, Scenario Data 0 Environmental Contamination of Air, Ground, and Food, Potential Doses Radiological Situation: real-time Diagnosis + Prognosis 1 Areas, Organ Doses, People affected by Countermeasures, Health Effects, Effort and Cost Countermeasures: Strategies and Consequences 2 Ranked List of feasible Strategies of long-term countermeasures (Decision Analysis) Evaluation of Strategies 3

17. Problem Structuring aims at hierarchically modelling the decision criteria overall goal overall objective logistics dose sub-objectives collective dose saved individual dose saved waste work effort attributes strategy y strategy x strategy z alternatives

18. Web-HIPRE provides various preference elicitation methods The direct weighting dialog Preference Elicitation The “SMART” weighting method The “SWING” weighting dialog

19. The communication of the results is accompanied by sensitivity analyses in Web-HIPRE The composite priorities illustrate the results of the analysis and the contributions of the different criteria to the overall results Aggregation Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analyses show the effect of changing the weight of an objective and give an overall assessment of the decision parameters