Joint GWP CEE/DMCSEE training: Drought management principles in UK by Trevor Bishop

1. © Crown copyright Met Office
Rachael Connerton, Water Resources Policy Advisor
Trevor Bishop: Deputy Director Environment Agency
3 October 2014
DMCSEE/GWP CEE capacity build training
From monitoring to end user
Environment Agency: Drought Management

2. © Crown copyright Met Office
The Environment Agency: Who we are and what we do!
Preserving Water Security

3. Public water supply 50%
Other industry 6%
Fish farming, cress 7%
Other 3%
Hydropower
(non consumptive) 32%
Other Electricity production (consumptive) 2%
Our Water Account: Recent Performance
Water companies abstracted 15,500 Ml/d. Nearly 500 Ml/d, or about 3%, less than previous year
Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface water and groundwater sources in England and Wales (source Environment Agency)
Draft: Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface water and groundwater sources in England and Wales
Water Risk and Finance

4. • Demand reduced by approximately 2% compared with the previous year.
• Overall demand shows a consistent reduction of about 1% a year since 2006.
• From 2003 a small but consistent average decline in pcc of about 1% each year.
• Average pcc now 146 l/p/d (2% or 3 litres less than previous year)
• An 18% difference between measured and unmeasured pcc (129 –v- 155)
• Average leakage per property in England and Wales has dropped by 7% to 127 l/prop/d.
Our Water Account: Recent Performance
Total abstraction for the calendar year 2011 from non-tidal surface water and groundwater sources in England and Wales (source Environment Agency)
[t1]Interesting number, can we just confirm that its 127 l/prop/d. It’s the same as metered pcc?
Draft: The main components of PWS demand between April 2011 and March 2012
Water Risk and Finance

5. Water Account: Pressures
Planning for long term water efficiency
Typical Catchment Balance in the SE England

6. © Crown copyright Met Office
Status of Water
Resources
Preserving Water Security

7. © Crown copyright Met Office
Statutory Drought Planning
Preserving Water Security
• Environment Agency Area Drought Plans
• Water Company Drought Plans
• Environment Agency National Drought Plan
• Central and local government Contingency Plans

8. Water resources information 7 July 2014
These slides outline the risk of a developing drought this year and show how it is managed
The information is for the use by the Environment Agency.
National Drought Coordinator
Drought Management - Illustrative Example

9. WR Information – 2 July 2014
9
Context – Public Water Supply and Drought
• Water Company Water Resource Management Plans (WRMP) is a strategic 25 year view of Water Company’s area aiming to enable cost effective security of supply under normal conditions – WRMP are a Statutory process signed-off by the Secretary of State.
• Water Company Drought Plans (DP) set out timely actions for security of supply under periods of low rainfall. Actions typically escalate through encouraging voluntary customers reductions, mandatory customers restrictions and relaxing environmental protections to allow access to additional resources.
• The transition between normal operation and drought (resilience) is set between each water company and the level of service for its customers which is then endorsed by the Secretary of State through the WRMP and DP process and plans. 3

10. WR Information – 2 July 2014
10
Context – Role of the Environment Agency
Water resources pressures and drought management
• Monitor/assess hydrological, hydrogeological and environmental status
• Report on water resource/drought status against indicators
• Advise and help coordinate abstractors, other stakeholders and government on appropriate actions
• Enforce licence conditions against predefined triggers
• Manage and operate site specific river augmentation schemes to support abstractions and the environment (e.g. Shropshire Groundwater Scheme)
• Active environmental management to mitigate impacts of pressures

11. WR Information – 2 July 2014
11
Monthly water situation report – June 2014
•Total rainfall for hydrological areas across England to 30 June
Classed relative to respective historic totals.
Final and provisional NCIC (National Climate Information Centre)
Source: Met Office © Crown Copyright, 2014. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2014

12. WR Information – 2 July 2014
12 Daily mean river flow for 01/07/2014 expressed as a percentile and classed relative to an analysis of historic daily mean flows for the same time of year Percentiles presented relate to an analysis for the time of year and not a whole year. Source: Environment Agency. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2014
Weekly River Flow Week ending 01/07/2014

13. Probabilistic
Probabilistic ensemble projections of 13
river flows at key indicator sites up
until the end of September 2014.
Probabilistic ensemble projections
of groundwater levels at key
indicator sites at the end of
September 2014.
Pie charts indicate probability, based on climatology, of the groundwater
level at each site being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year.
Source: Environment Agency. Geological map
reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS ©
NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency,
100026380, 2014
Pie charts indicate probability, based on
climatology, of the surface water flow at each site
being e.g. exceptionally low for the time of year.
Source: Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology, Environment Agency

14. WR Information – 2 July 2014
14
Current WR situation in Cumbria
•Over 30 mm rain in catchments
between 4 and 6 July
•Both reservoirs recovered within
normal ranges
•Both sources rely on river flow and/or
rainfall inflows to sustain levels.
•Ennerdale catchment responds quickly
to rainfall but it is required locally
•June rainfall in local area is 44% (LTA)
•3 month (March to May LTA)
regional rainfall is 102%

15. WR Information – 2 July 2014
15
Timetable of management actions
UU Drought Plan (2013) Triggers
Ennerdale
(earliest expected based on 1 July draw down levels)
Actions
Hawes-water
Additional actions to Ennerdale actions
1
23 June (actual) .
NOTE: Lake level now above trigger 1 (at 7 July)
Convene drought teams, enhanced efficiency and monitoring
24 June
(actual)
Rezoning of sources, increase pumping from other sources
2
12 days after trigger 1
Rezoning, voluntary water use restraints,
Unlikely this year
Review use of other sources, continued rezoning
3
9 days after trigger 2
Apply for drought order, commence tankering (Ennerdale only)
Unlikely this year
Apply for drought permits, use alternative and off line sources
4
13 days after trigger 3
Followed by DO (asap)
Apply compulsory restrictions (TUBs) followed by use of drought order
Unlikely this year
As Ennerdale
EA Drought status
Environment Agency
Actions
Developing drought (internal status)
Not required
Convene drought teams and strategic governance, start situation reporting, prepare comms strategy
Drought
Not required
Respond to drought order/permit applications, enhanced monitoring, reporting and comms

16. WR Information – 2 July 2014
16
Forward look
•Recovering situation as reservoirs return within normal range for time of year due to significant rainfall
•Local area teams maintain close monitoring on levels and situation over summer
•Local and national leads review response to identify lessons for future preparedness
•UU, Defra and EA resume weekly telecons on IROPI and EIP preparation

17. WR Information – 2 July 2014
17
Draft Rolling Map example
•Worked with WUK on the maps and definitions
•Uses area or smaller boundaries for drought status and water supply zones for water use restrictions
•Worked with WUK on the maps and definitions
•For use on gov.uk, social media and host websites
Drought mapping
and comms

18. 1976 Drought - standpipes

19. 2004-07 South East drought

20. Legislation
•Pre-1945 Byelaws
•1945 Water Act, Section 16
•Water Industry Act, 1991, Section 76
•Water Resources Act 1991 (amended by Environment Act 1995 and Water Act 2003) – Sections 73 - 81
•Flood and Water Management Act 2010
•Drought Direction 2011 affecting the 'non-essential uses'

21. Water use restrictions – new provisions
•New legislation commenced on 1 Oct 2010:
•Flood and Water Management Act 2010
•Water Use (Temporary Bans) Order 2010 (detail and definitions)
•Water companies can restrict and/or prohibit more types of water use during a drought.
•Replaces the hosepipe bans from the Water Industry Act
•New powers – in response to 2004-07 drought
•Reduces the need for non-essential use drought orders

22. •Watering gardens and non-commercial plants using a hosepipe
•Cleaning private motor vehicles or boats with hosepipe
•Filling and maintaining domestic swimming pools, ponds or ornamental fountain
•Drawing water for domestic recreational use
•Cleaning domestic walls, windows, paths and patios or any other outdoor surface using hosepipe
What’s covered?

23. Water demand patterns 1995

24. Our guidance - example

25. Our role
•Planning
•Drought planning
•Regulation of water companies
•Active drought management
•Drought permits / orders

26. Drought management – head office
•Communications
•Co-ordination of communications, internal and external
•Requests for information by Chief Executive, Defra, Ministers
•Increase in press interest and from other organisations such as NFU
•National briefings
•Weekly one message briefings – cabinet office and Defra
•Support to the regions
•Drought permits
•Advice and guidance

27. Drought management – Areas, NPS
•Area
•Monitoring of environment
•Reporting and responding to
impacts
•Enforcement on abstraction
licences
•Local direct communications
•National Permitting Centre/Support
•Determine drought permits
•Manage objections and support any hearing

28. The Environmental Drought Develops
Normal Jet stream
Drought Jet stream
28
Preserving Water Security

29. © Crown copyright Met Office
Drought 2010 - 12
Preserving Water Security

30. 2010 – 2012 River flow, groundwater and
reservoir summary over 24 months
River flow
Groundwater
Reservoir
Stacked bars show proportion of indicator sites in different categories: exceptionally high,
notably high, above normal, normal, below normal, notably low, exceptionally low for
different months from June 2010 to July 2012
C A B A C B C C A D D B B A C A C D B A D E A A A A
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A A B A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
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F E D D D D E D D E E F E E E E E E D D E E D D C B
F E D D D D E E D E E F E E E E E E E D E E D D C B
F E E D D D E E D E F F E E E E E E E E E E E D C C
F E E D D D E E D E F F F E E E E E E E E E E D C C
F F E D D E E E E E F F F F E E E E E E E F E D D D
F F E D E E F E E E F F F F E E E E E E F F E D D D
F F E E E E F E E E F F F F E E E F E E F F E D D D
G F E E E E F E E E F G G F F E F F F F F G F E D D
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G G F E F E G F F F F G G F G F G G G G G G G E F E
Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

31. © Crown copyright Met Office
Drought 2010 - 12
Preserving Water Security

32. “Drought conditions have so badly affected wildlife in some regions that rescue parties have been created to save fish from rapidly disappearing rivers.” "Never ever has it dried up this early in the year. It has a terrible effect.”.....”We are running out of rivers to put the fish in” Guardian 3 April 2012
Rescue squads sent in to save drought-hit fish
The Environmental Drought Develops
32
Preserving Water Security

33. © Crown copyright Met Office
Drought 2010 – 2012
Early April River flows and reservoir levels
Preserving Water Security

34. © Crown copyright Met Office
Drought 2010/12: What was different?
Preserving Water Security
• Awareness of Resilience
• Political Interest
• Drought Governance
• Water Community
• Media
• Public
'We are facing a severe water shortage‘ The Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman confirms a drought for the south east of England and warns of impending hosepipe bans.

35. © Crown copyright Met Office
The Public?
Perception about the current situation (Thames Water Customers)
Water Resources: Secure, Conserve and Prosper

36. © Crown copyright Met Office
Drought 2010 – 12: PWS Resilience
Preserving Water Security
Gradual Awareness Raising More Focused Awareness Raising Temporary Use Bans (LoS) Drought Permits and Orders Emergency Drought Orders

37. © Crown copyright Met Office
Drought: Planning Water Security
Preserving Water Security
• Resilience – we have choices
• Water Resource and Drought Plans
• Planning for today, planning for tomorrow
• Risk and consequences
• Resilience is more than capacity

38. © Crown copyright Met Office
Looking to the future
Climate Change
Population Growth
Preserving Water Security

39. © Crown copyright Met Office
Climate change scenarios: Changes in summer flows
Gaps between supply and demand: 2050’s
Preserving Water Security

40. © Crown copyright Met Office
Planning Water Security
Preserving Water Security
• Drought
• Agreed decision trigger points
• Cross sector coordination
• Media and communications
• Future Drought
• Climate Change adaptation
• Access and allocation
• Supply Resilience
• Demand management
• Environmental resilience

41. Water Risk and Finance in the 21st Century
Key Actions for the next decade
1.Access and Allocation
2.Water Demand Management
3.Environmental Resilience
4.Drought Management
5.Security of Supply – Resilience
•Planning Assumption
•Economics
Water Risk and Finance

42. Planning Assumptions: Stochastic hydrology
•A series of rainfall models have now been generated by University of East Anglia & Newcastle University for key catchments across our supply area
•Models are calibrated against historic events producing similar distribution of events
•Running these models allow the generation of much longer drought sequences of rainfall which produce these alternative events to be explored
•These models are also able to take account of climate change factors, therefore we can run them to understand the expected variability of the weather and how this could then change under different climate change scenarios
Water Risk and Finance

43. Wider range of droughts to consider
Water Risk and Finance

44. Use of Economics for Decision Support
Water Risk and Finance
• Previously
• Financial efficiency - Least cost, just in time approach
• Future
• Compound/Deep uncertainties
• New Paradigm for water – Robust Decision Making, Real Options Valuation ...
• TE 2100
• Water Infrastructure and Water White Paper