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Joint DMCSEE / GWP CEE capacity building training 
From monitoring to end users 
The Romanian experiences in planning and management of drought – current status and perspectives 
Elena Mateescu – National Meteorological Administration, Romania 
4th DMCSEE International Steering Committee 
and 
3rd Global Water partnership IDMP-CEE workshop 
Budapest, Hungary 
2 – 4 October 2014
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL 
NETWORK 
- 7 Regional Meteorological Centres 
- 159 weather meteorological stations, 126 being automatic (MAWS) 
- 55 weather stations integrating a special program of agrometeorological measurements – soil moisture and phenological data (winter wheat, maize, sunflower, rape, fruit trees and vineyards. 
National Meteorological Observation Network of Romania 
METEOROLOGICAL 
NETWORK
Drought monitoring system in Romania - description 
1.Agrometeorological and climatic drought indices – heat stress (HS), soil moisture (SM), SPI, SPEI, PDSI, etc / operationally activity 2. Drought related-indices derived from remote sensing data / operationally and research activity - LAI / Leaf Area Index - NDVI / Normalized Differences Vegetation Index - NDWI / Normalized Difference Water Index - NDDI / Normalized Difference Drought Index - fAPAR / Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Index 3. Drought indices - research activity - DVI / Drought Vulnerability Index - DROGHT-ADAPT – web platform
1. Agrometeorological drought indicators 
Scorching heat intensity Soil moisture 
Frequency of dry months / 1970-2012 / Maize crop 
0 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 
nr. luni 
BECHET BOTOSANI BUZAU CONSTANTA GALATI GRIVITA ORADEA TG.JIU SATU MARE TIMISOARA VASLUI TG.MURES tendinta 
Frequency of dry months on the maize crop over the 1970-2011 period , 22 agromet stations from South of Romania
June – August 2000 
June 2003 
November 2011 
August 2012 
SPI index - 3 
1. Climatic drought indicators
Spatial distribution of the Palmer Drought Severity annual index (1961-2010) 
Trends of 6 – month SPEI values (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) over the 1961-2010 period. Growth trends are indicated in red and the lowering ones in blue. 
SPEI 
PDSI / annual values
Spatial distribution of the Palmer Drought Severity index for the warm season 
months (May-August over the 1961-2010 period). The negative values indicate 
the tendency of aridity and the positive ones show exceeding rainfalls. 
Hatched zones shows statistically significant trends at a 90% confidence level 
(according with Mann Kendall test) 
PDSI / seasonal values
Date 
Soil moisture (mc/ha) 
% CAu (Soil water supply capacity) 
Classes 
20.07.2013 
883 
55 %CAu 
Satisfactory supply 
31.07.2013 
695 
43 %CAu 
Moderate pedological drought 
10.08.2013 
548 
34 %CAu 
Strong pedological drought 
20.08.2013 
667 
42 %CAu 
Moderate pedological drought 
MODIS – LAI (1 km) evolution in the Olt and Covasna agricultural areas for 20 July to 20 August 2013 
2. Drought related-indices derived from remote sensing data
MODIS NDWI and NDDI over Covasna county on 21.07 -13.08.2013 
Date 
Soil moisture (mc/ha) 
% CAu (Soil water supply capacity) 
Classes 
10.07.2013 
1216 
76 %CAu 
Close to the optimal supply 
20.07.2013 
883 
55 %CAu 
Satisfactory supply 
31.07.2013 
695 
43 %CAu 
Moderate pedological drought 
10.08.2013 
548 
34 %CAu 
Strong pedological drought 
20.08.2013 
667 
42 %CAu 
Moderate pedological drought 
21.07 – 28.07.2013 
29.07 – 5.08.2013 
6.08 – 13.08.2013
NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the amount of precipitation registered at Caracal weather station (wheat crop) 
May – September 2013 
Through comparing it with the precipitation recorded at Caracal weather station, a minimum NDVI value was noticed at the beginning of May, due to the lack of precipitation. Further, due to the precipitation recorded in May and June, the NDVI values returned to normal (> 0.6). A NDVI decrease trend can be noticed over the interval when wheat was harvested (July). The same trend can be seen in the course of NDWI. NDWI correlates well with the moisture measured at the stations and in the test area. The maximum values of NDWI (~0.4) correspond to medium vegetation water content and to medium vegetation fraction cover.
NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the soil moisture measured at Caracal weather station (sun flower) 
NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the amount of precipitation registered at Caracal weather station (sun flower) 
- The decrease of both NDVI and NDWI for the sun flower and maize crops in August through September 2013 is explained by the decreasing of the soil water moisture reserve and rainfall deficit. 
- The satellite remote sensing techniques play an important role in crop identification; disease and water stress detection, because they provide spatially explicit information and access to remote locations. The use of multispectral satellite data may ensure an improvement of the classical methods destined to determine the agrometeorological parameters of interest. 
- The vegetation indices are among the most commonly used satellite data products for the evaluation, monitoring, and measurement of vegetation cover, condition, biophysical processes, and change. The main advantages consist in the possibility to obtain spatial information with a resolution varying from kilometers to meters and to update those data at time intervals that may vary from hours to seasons. 
NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the amount of precipitation registered at Caracal weather station (corn)
FUTURE STEPS of agromet operational activity: 
- EU Funding Period for 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 periods / Operational Sectoral Programme for Environment (POS-MEDIU) 
-NMA project: The development of the national system of monitoring and warning of extreme weather phenomena for the protection of life and property materials. 
- In 2007-2013 period will be implemented the activities related of modernization of meteo and agrometerological networks: 
1.Meteorological network – 31 weather meteo stations (MWAS) in order to complete the automatic meteo network and dedicated software for processing data in automatic flow. 2. Agrometeorlogical network: - Modernization of agromet network / 25 soil moisture portable systems / new systems implemented within 5 November 2014 - Windows Server /CISC x86 6-core - National data base platform / type SQL Server 2008 - Modernization of applications in operational activity – dedicated software for agrometeorological data and indicators (national level)
Agromonitoring system / 
conceptual scheme 
2 components: 
1. Local level / agromet 
station - metadata 
2. National level – web 
application 
3. Validation of data at 
regional level by 7 
responsible with agromet 
activity using a web 
interface
Type of messages: 
- Phenology 
- Metadata 
- Soil moisture 
Soil moisture data
Agromet web-software application / 80 agromet indices
Drought vulnerability scales 
DVI 
Vulnerability Scales 
Color scale 
0.00 – 0.49 
No or less vulnerability 
0.50 – 0.99 
Low vulnerability 
1.00 – 1.49 
Medium vulnerability 
1.50 – 1.99 
High vulnerability 
2.00 – 2.49 
Very high vulnerability 
2.50 – 3.00 
Extreme vulnerability 
 W i 
DVI = 
KN 
where: 
DVI = Drought Vulnerability Index 
N = Number of indicators under consideration 
W I = Weights of drought vulnerability indicators, where I = 1, 2….N 
k = Upper limit of vulnerability weights (e.g. scale = 0-k, where k is highest value of W I 
3. Drought vulnerability index (DVI) based on climatic variables 
Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern European Countries / WMO-GWP Initiative . 
- Activity 5.4. Drought Risk Management Scheme: a decision support system 
Milestone no. 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available GIS information including population map, type of economic
Vulnerability level 
Scales 
Heat stress (HS) 
SPEI 
Soil Moisture (SM) 
No 
vulnerability 
0 
No stress 
<10 
0 
No deficit 
<-.0.99 
0 
No deficit 
100%AWC 
Low 
Vulnerability 
1 
Low stress 
11-30 
1 
Low deficit 
-1.99 to -1 
1 
Low 
deficit 
65-100%AWC 
High vulnerability 
2 
Moderate stress 
31 -50 
2 
Moderate dry 
-2.99 to -2 
2 
Moderate deficit 
35-65%AWC 
Extreme 
vulnerability 
3 
Strong 
stress 
>51 
3 
Very Dry 
<-.3 
3 
Strong deficit 
0-35%AWC 
Drought vulnerability component scale 
Heat stress - HS 
SPEI 
Soil Moisture - SM
Drought Vulnerability Index for maize crop during the critical period for water plant needs (August) 
The most critical areas recorded in the south, south-east and west regions
CONSIDERATIONS on Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) 
- This approach is based on the combination of several climatic indicators over long periods of time (>30 years 1961-2010). Also, these indicators based on climatic variables have major influences on plant vegetative processes. The climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration associated with soil data have a great influence on the aridization processes. The soil type and crop data are also important. In term of meteorological definition, a drought period is defined by a significant deficit in the rainfall regime. The heat waves produce thermal stress to plants even if water is not limited especially during the summer period. Pedological drought refers to a significant deficit in the soil moisture. For agriculture, drought is defined by parameters affecting crops growth and yield. All these type of drought affect agricultural production loss varying function of their intensity and duration. 
- The next phase of this research is to explore the drivers of vulnerability and identify the adaptation pathways of agriculture to climate variability and change. In this regard, this analysis enabled us to identify the most vulnerable regions for maize crop in Romania using different climatic indicators and expert analisys (based on screening approach method). Results obtained suggest a major focus on areas of the greatest needs in terms of vulnerability to drought events. Vulnerability has been expressed as a function of exposure and intensity at different level in time and space. The approach is useful in evaluating the vulnerability of crop systems to drought and may help the decision makers to formulate more specific and targeted climate adaptation policies to reduce production losses in agriculture.
Results of the Romanian research in adaptation 
measures to drought in agriculture 
Project SEE /C/0001/2.2./X: A structured network for 
integration of climate knowlegde into policy and 
territorial planning – OrientGate (2012-2014) 
WG4: TC 1 / Forestry and Agriculture 
Pilot study 2: Climate change adaptation measures 
in Romanian agriculture field 
Responsible: National Meteorolgical Administration 
EPA Covasna - partner
OrientGate project area 
The ORIENTGATE project aims to: 
- Foster the integration of climate change in territorial planning and development 
- Coordinate climate change adaptation efforts in South Eastern Europe 
- Connect climate change policy planners and decision makers with the communities that produce climate knowledge 
The Partnership: 
- 33 partners (Ministries, NHMS, Regional Public Authorities, Municipalities and Environmental Agency) 
- Led by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) Italy
OrientGate 3 Thematic Centers and 6 specific Pilot Studies
The study area of Pilot Study 2 
 Olt county/ Caracal area is located in the south part of the Oltenia region, in a vulnerable area to extreme conditions (drought/water scarcity). 
 Covasna county / Tg. Secuiesc area is located in the south-eastern part of the Transilvania region, in a vulnerable area to extreme events (drought/floods). 
Observed changes of the climatic condition 
in the Pilot Study 2 area – Caracal and Covasna sites, in the context of CC 
Summary 
Different cropping systems (winter wheat and maize); 
RegCMs climatic predictions at a very fine resolution over 2021-2050 and 2071-2100; 
Different technological sequences were analyzed by alternative simulations of crop management practices: changes in sowing date, altered genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D) for genotype selection, irrigation needs, etc. 
Implementation 
NMA (PP10): is responsible for implementing Pilot 2 (Task 1-3) 
EPA Covasna (PP9): participate to the implementation process (Task 1-3).
PILOT STUDY 2 AGROCLIMATIC CONDITION IN THE CONTEXT OF CC 
y = 0,0214x + 10,63 
9,0 
9,5 
10,0 
10,5 
11,0 
11,5 
12,0 
12,5 
13,0 
13,5 
14,0 
C 
Mean annual air temperature trend in Caracal / 1961 - 2010 
1961 - 1990 / 10.9C 
1981 - 2010 / 11.4C, +0.5C 
CARACAL 1961-1990 / 10.9ºC 1981-2010 / 11.4ºC, +0.5ºC ► 2007: 12.9C (+1.9C) ► 1969: 10.0 C (-0.9C) 
y = 0,0216x + 6,4807 
4,0 
4,5 
5,0 
5,5 
6,0 
6,5 
7,0 
7,5 
8,0 
8,5 
9,0 
Mean annual air temperature trend in Tg. Secuiesc /1961-2010 
C 
Tg. Secuiesc / COVASNA 
1961-1990 / 6.8ºC 
1981-2010 / 7.2ºC, +0.4ºC 
► 2007: 8.5C (+1.7C) 
► 1985: 5.6 C (-1.2C)
Warmest years in Caracal, 
over 1961 – 2010 period 
(1961-1990 / 10.9C) 
Annual air temperature 
Deviation 
1. 2007 
12.9C 
1.9C 
2. 1994, 2000 
12.6C 
1.7C 
3. 2008, 2009 
12.2C 
1.3 C 
4. 1990, 2002 
12.0C 
1.1C 
5. 2001 
11.9C 
1.0C 
6. 1966, 1999 
11.8C 
0.9C 
7. 1961, 1989 
11.7C 
0.8C 
8. 1983, 1992 
11.6C 
0.7C 
9. 2004 
11.5C 
0.6C 
10. 1968, 1975, 2006, 2010 
11.4C 
0.5C 
11. 2003 
11.3C 
0.4C 
2000-2010 / 10 warmest years 
Warmest years in Tg. Secuiesc, 
over 1961 – 2010 period 
(1961-1990 / 6.8C) 
Annual air temperature 
Deviation 
1. 1994, 
8.6C 
1.8C 
2. 2007 
8.5C 
1.7C 
3. 2009 
8.2C 
1.4C 
4. 2008 
8.1C 
1.3C 
5. 1999 
7.8C 
1.0C 
6. 1966, 1989, 1990, 
2000, 2002 
7.7C 
0.9C 
7. 2006 
7.5C 
0.7C 
8. 2001, 2004 
7.4C 
0.6C 
9. 1975 
7.3C 
0.5C 
10. 1971, 1972, 1968, 
1977, 1983 
7.2C 
0.4C 
11. 1998, 2005 
7.1C 
0.3C 
2000-2010 / 9 warmest years
y = 1,5858x + 12,426 
0 
50 
100 
150 
200 
250 
Intensity of scorching heat trend in summer period - CARACAL / 1961-2013 
Tmax≥32C 
HEAT STRSS /1961-2013 
y = 0,3066x - 3,4962 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
Intensity of scorching heat trend in summer period -Tg. Secuiesc / 1961-2013 
Tmax≥32C 
CARACAL 1. 2012 / 224 Units 2. 2013 / 195 Units 3. 2000 / 189 Units 4. 2007 / 159 Units 5. 1987, 1993 / 121 Units 1961-1990 / 36 Units 1981-2010 / 76 Units 
Tg. Secuiesc / COVASNA 
1. 2012 / 61 Units 
2. 2013 / 40 Units 
3. 2007 / 39 Units 
4. 1987 / 24 Units 
5. 2000 / 21 Units 
1961-1990 / 2 Units 
1981-2010 / 7 Units
Interval 
Monthly rainfall amounts (mm) 
I 
II 
III 
IV 
V 
VI 
VII 
VIII 
IX 
X 
XI 
XII 
1961-1990 
38,7 
38,9 
40,0 
47,9 
63,1 
73,2 
60,4 
46,3 
32,1 
32,4 
47,7 
45,2 
1981 - 2013 
31,9 
29,6 
36,9 
43,9 
51,6 
60,2 
51,8 
41,0 
38,5 
39,3 
41,0 
40,5 
Deviation 
-6,8 
-9,3 
-3,1 
-4,0 
-11,5 
-13,0 
-8,6 
-5,3 
6,3 
6,9 
-6,7 
-4,7 
0,0 
10,0 
20,0 
30,0 
40,0 
50,0 
60,0 
70,0 
80,0 
I 
II 
III 
IV 
V 
VI 
VII 
VIII 
IX 
X 
XI 
XII 
1961-1990 
1981-2010 
Evolution of the mean monthly rainfall (mm) in Caracal over 1981-2010 period, compared with the baseline climate period (1961-1990) 
Mean monthly rainfall trend over 1981-2013, compared with the baseline climate period/ Caracal
Interval 
Monthly rainfall amounts (mm) 
I 
II 
III 
IV 
V 
VI 
VII 
VIII 
IX 
X 
XI 
XII 
1961-1990 
20,7 
18,8 
19,8 
44,9 
64,4 
79,8 
79,2 
68,8 
39,3 
27,4 
20,1 
17,5 
1981 - 2013 
17,0 
18,5 
22,6 
44,7 
69,0 
82,6 
74,3 
67,4 
42,0 
31,8 
20,7 
22,6 
Deviation 
-3,7 
-0,3 
2,8 
-0,2 
4,6 
2,8 
-4,9 
-1,4 
2,7 
4,4 
0,6 
5,1 
Mean monthly rainfall trend over 1981-2013, compared with the baseline climate period/ Tg. Secuiesc 
0,0 
10,0 
20,0 
30,0 
40,0 
50,0 
60,0 
70,0 
80,0 
90,0 
I 
II 
III 
IV 
V 
VI 
VII 
VIII 
IX 
X 
XI 
XII 
1961-1990 
1981-2010 
Evolution of the mean monthly rainfall (mm) in Tg. Secuiesc over 1981-2010 period, compared with the baseline climate period (1961-1990)
CARACAL / 1961 – 2010 
 2 years / 4.0% - excessively droughty years (<350.0 mm/year) 
 9 years / 18,0% - dry years (351.0 – 450.0 mm/year) 
 25 years / 50,0% - moderate dry years (451.0 – 600.0 mm/year) 
TOTAl dry years - 36 years / 72,0%) 
 6 years / 12,0% - optimal years (601.0 – 700.0 mm/year) 
 8 years / 16,0% - excessive rainy years (701.0 – 800.0 mm/year) 
The frequency of droughty/rainy years (1961-2010) 
2006-2007 
2011-2012 
Tg. Secuiesc / 1961 – 2010 
 14 years / 28,0% - dry years (351.0 – 450.0 mm/year) 
 28 years / 56,0% - moderate dry years (451.0 – 600.0 mm/year) 
TOTAl dry years - 42 years / 84,0%) 
 6 years / 12,0% - optimal years (601.0 – 700.0 mm/year) 
 2 years / 4,0% - excessive rainy years (701.0 – 800.0 mm/year)
DECADE 
XX-TH CENTURY 
EXTREMELY DROUGHTY YEARS 
EXTREMELY RAINY YEARS 
1961-1970 
1961-1962, 1967-1968 / 2 years 
1968-1969, 1969-1970 / 2 years 
1971-1980 
1973-1974, 1975-1976 / 2 years 
1972-1973, 1978-1979 / 2 years 
1981-1990 
1982-1983, 1984-1985, 1986-1987, 1989-1990 / 4 years 
- 
1991-2000 
1992-1993, 1994-1995, 1995-1996, 1999-2000 / 4 years 
1990-1991 / 1 year 
XXI-ST CENTURY 
2001-2010 
2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 
2006-2007, 2008-2009 / 5 years 
2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2009-2010 / 
3 years 
2011-2020 
2011-2012, ……….. 
………. 
Droughty and rainy years /1961-2020 
DECADE 
XX-TH CENTURY 
EXTREMELY DROUGHTY YEARS 
EXTREMELY RAINY YEARS 
1961-1970 
1961-1962, 1962-1963, 1963-1964 / 3 years 
1969-1970 / 1 year 
1971-1980 
1973-1974, 1975-1976 / 2 years 
1972-1973, 1974-1975, 1978-1979 
/ 3 years 
1981-1990 
1984-1985, 1985-1986, 1986-1987, 
1989-1990 / 4 years 
- 
1991-2000 
1991-1923, 1993-1994, 1997-1998 / 3 years 
1990-1991 / 1 year 
XXI-ST CENTURY 
2001-2010 
2000-2001, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 
2006-2007 / 4 years 
2009-2010 / 1 year 
2011-2020 
2011-2012, ………. 
……………. 
Caracal 
Tg. Secuiesc
-5 
0 
5 
10 
15 
20 
25 
30 
I 
II 
III 
IV 
V 
VI 
VII 
VIII 
IX 
X 
XI 
XII 
1961-1990 
2021-2050 
C 
Projected changes in monthly means of air temperature for decade 2021-2050 / CARACAL 
Air Temperature 
Rainfall 
I 
0,2 
-1,9 
II 
0,3 
9,3 
III 
0,4 
3,4 
IV 
0,6 
3,5 
V 
0,7 
-2.8 
VI 
0,8 
-0,8 
VII 
1,3 
-10,3 
VIII 
1,1 
-2,3 
IX 
0,5 
-8,4 
X 
0,3 
-6,6 
XI 
0,3 
-15,1 
XII 
0,0 
-10,8 
AN 
+0,5C 
-4.5% 
Projected changes of the monthly air temperature and rainfall for decade 2020-2050 CARACAL 
RegCMs / SRES A1B scenarios 
0 
10 
20 
30 
40 
50 
60 
70 
80 
IX 
X 
XI 
XII 
I 
II 
III 
IV 
V 
VI 
VII 
VIII 
1961-1990 
2021-2050 
mm
Scenariul RCP 8.5 
Scenariul RCP 2.6 
Climate change scenarios / 2021-2050 vs.1971-2000 CMIP5 experiments – summer season
Recommendations and options to improve: 
- water use efficiency (WUE) and 
- the genotype varieties and yields A case study for CARACAL and COVASNA agricultural areas (RegCM3/2020-2050 and 2071-2100/SRES-A1B)
270 
257 
251 
240 
250 
260 
270 
280 
1961-1990 
2021-2050 
2071-2100 
days 
Growing season duration / winter wheat and maize crops RegCMs/ 2021-2050 and 2071-2100/ SRES A1B scenario 
Shortening vegetation season with 13-19 days for winter wheat, and 15 to 25 days for the maize crop 
142 
127 
117 
0 
20 
40 
60 
80 
100 
120 
140 
160 
1961-1990 
2021-2050 
2071-2100 
days 
Maize growing season duration / CARACAL 
Winter wheat growing season duration / CARACAL 
No. days of SD / Winter wheat 
Diff. 
1961-1990 
270 
2021-2050 
257 
-13 
2071-2100 
251 
-19 
No. days of SD / Maize 
Diff. 
1961-1990 
142 
2021-2050 
127 
-15 
2071-2100 
117 
-25
Sowing date 
WUE (kg.m-3) 
Base 
WUE (kg.m-3) 
2020s 
WUE 
(kg.m-3) 
2050s 
November 1 
1.35 
1.52 
1.88 
October 20 
1.30 
1.41 
1.78 
October 10 
1.20 
1.38 
1.62 
September 30 
1.10 
1.26 
1.50 
September 20 
1.09 
1.18 
1.38 
September 10 
0.96 
1.10 
1.25 
Water is used more efficiently by the winter wheat crop with the later sowing date (October 20 and November 1) in comparison with earlier dates of September / CARACAL 
0 
0,2 
0,4 
0,6 
0,8 
1 
1,2 
1,4 
1,6 
1,8 
2 
September 10 
September 20 
September 30 
October 10 
October 20 
November 1 
Base 
2020s 
2050s 
WUE (kg.m-3) 
Recommendations to improve effective use of water by crops (WUE) / change in sowing date
0 
2 
4 
6 
8 
10 
12 
14 
16 
18 
Current climate 
2020s 
2050s 
apr.01 
apr.11 
apr.21 
Sowing date 
WUE (kg.m-3) 
Base 
WUE (kg.m-3) 
2020s 
WUE 
(kg.m-3) 
2050s 
April 1 
4.45 
12.5 
16.5 
April 11 
3.5 
9.9 
12.3 
April 20 
2.05 
5.1 
8.7 
Water is used more efficiently by the maize crop with an earlier sowing date (April 1 and 11) in comparison with later date (April 20) / CARACAL 
Recommendations to improve effective use 
of water by crops (WUE) / change in sowing date
4000 
4200 
4400 
4600 
4800 
5000 
5200 
5400 
Current 
climate 
Var 1 
Var 2 
Var 3 
Var 4 
Var 5 
kg/ha 
Winter wheat grain yield /2021-2050/450ppm Altereted genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D) / Fundulea 29 
Winter wheat - altered genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D)/ Fundulea 29 
Specific. 
Current climate 
P1V=6.0 
Scenario 
VAR 1 
P1V=3.0/P1D=3.0 
2020-2050 
VAR 2 
P1V=4.0/P1D=3.5 
/ 450 ppm 
VAR 3 
P1V=6.0/P1D=2.5 
VAR 4 
P1V=4.0/P1D=2.0 
VAR 5 
P1V=6.0/P1D=1.0 
GY (kg/ha) 
4452 
5014 
5238 
5118 
5022 
4989 
SD (days) 
270 
258 
255 
252 
243 
241 
The most suitable combinations - winter wheat varieties with moderate vernalization and photoperiod requirements / P1V =4.0/P1D=3.5
Adaptation measures to drought in the context of CC: changing of the sowing date 
ORIENTGATE Study Pilot 2: Olt County / Caracal area Covasna County / Tg. Secuiesc area 2021-2050 Winter wheat: later sowing date Caracal area: October 20 and November 1 Tg. Secuiesc area: September 10 and October 5 Maize: earlier sowing date Caracal area: April 1 and 11 Tg. Secuies area: March 20 and April 1
Technical Working Group Meeting – SEE OrientGate Project 
1-2 April 2014, Romania 
1st April 2014, scientific working group meeting / Bucharest 
The first day of the meeting was dedicated to scientific debates. 
The meeting included a discussion of current status of project, a presentation of preliminary results of Pilot Study 2, and an overview of future steps to identify the most suitable options for reducing the impacts of climate change (especially drought) as the best adaptation measures on agriculture in the selected pilot area; 
65 participants attended the event namely representatives from the Romanian Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences “Gheorghe Ionescu-Sisesti”, the Romanian Academy, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Agricultural Research-Development Station Caracal and specialists working in the areas of agriculture, geography, water resources management, environment and plant protection; 
Also participated the representatives from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, Forest Department in Austria (BMLFUW) which is the coordinator of the TC 1 and from the Environmental Protection Agency of Covasna which is the partner in the project; 
8 scientific papers presented during the 1st day of the Technical Working Group Meeting.
•Presenting the current status and the results of the Orientgate Project in the Romanian media, RTV Television Broadcast. 
Technical Working Group Meeting – SEE OrientGate Project 
2 April 2014, Caracal, Romania 
2 April 2014 - Field trip to the Agricultural Research-Development Station Caracal to visit the experimental plots developed under Pilot Study 2
- OrientGate publications / Book including all 6 case studies and leaflets - Pilot Study 2 / 200 Brochure; 100 Books on adaptation to drought in Romanian agriculture (English/Romanian version) 
Local Municipality from Caracal and Covasna will be the main end-users of the project results in order to develop drought-risk management tool and adaptation measures and farmers to put in practice the recommendations.
OrientGate web-page: http://www.orientgateproject.org/
Warnings at national level and now-casting forecasts at local level 
- Seasonal forecasts (1-3 months) - Regional forecasts (2 weeks) 
- Agromet forecats /weekly 
- Soil moisture maps /daily 
- Notes on the drought evolution 
TODAY / Internet – free access of meteorological forecasts and agromet information 
(http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm/?lang=ro_ro)
FUTURE PERSPECTIVES ON DROUGHT MONITORING IN ROMANIA 
Decision-making support system for the integrated management of drought in agriculture / DROUHT - ADAPT Web Platform for drought monitoring and forecast 
COMPONENTS 
Historical climate data (e.g. maps in GIS environment for each variables (temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, etc.) and extreme data of weather stations/ representative for agriculture 
Drought Action Plan / prevention measures on specific phases of intervention 
Agromet station / climatic data, soil and phenological data 
Vulnerability Drought Index (DVI) 
Technical recommendations for agricultural crop calendar / at regional evel 
Warnings and forecats – 
1. Meteorological forecasts / daily for the next 7 days; and warnings of drought events and other extreme phenomena (heat stress, extreme rainfall s, heat waves, etc) 
2. Agromet forecasts /daily for the next 7 days 
3. Seasonal forecasts (1-3 months) 
1. Optimum 
2. Pre-alert 
3. Alert 
4. Emerency 
Phase 
Optimum 
Pre-alert 
Alert 
Emergency 
Actions 
Planification 
Monitoring and Control 
Intervention 
Tye of measures 
Strategic 
Tactical 
Emergency
Agromet station 
Jan. 
Febr. 
Marc. 
May 
Jun. 
Jul. 
Aug. 
Sept. 
Oct. 
Nov. 
Dec. 
Alexandria 
Barlad 
Timisoara 
Craiova 
Drought monitoring and warnings / on-line system 
Agromet station 
Drought Risk level 
Scenario 
(Estimation / update every 2 weeks or 1 month) 
Alexandria 
Very low 
Barlad 
Medium 
Timisoara 
High 
Craiova 
Extreme
Soil moisture / 3 October 2014 http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm/?lang=ro_ro 
DROUGHT
Thank you for your attention! 
49

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Joint GWP CEE/DMCSEE training: The Romanian experiences in planning and management of drought by Elena Mateescu

  • 1. Joint DMCSEE / GWP CEE capacity building training From monitoring to end users The Romanian experiences in planning and management of drought – current status and perspectives Elena Mateescu – National Meteorological Administration, Romania 4th DMCSEE International Steering Committee and 3rd Global Water partnership IDMP-CEE workshop Budapest, Hungary 2 – 4 October 2014
  • 2. AGROMETEOROLOGICAL NETWORK - 7 Regional Meteorological Centres - 159 weather meteorological stations, 126 being automatic (MAWS) - 55 weather stations integrating a special program of agrometeorological measurements – soil moisture and phenological data (winter wheat, maize, sunflower, rape, fruit trees and vineyards. National Meteorological Observation Network of Romania METEOROLOGICAL NETWORK
  • 3. Drought monitoring system in Romania - description 1.Agrometeorological and climatic drought indices – heat stress (HS), soil moisture (SM), SPI, SPEI, PDSI, etc / operationally activity 2. Drought related-indices derived from remote sensing data / operationally and research activity - LAI / Leaf Area Index - NDVI / Normalized Differences Vegetation Index - NDWI / Normalized Difference Water Index - NDDI / Normalized Difference Drought Index - fAPAR / Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation Index 3. Drought indices - research activity - DVI / Drought Vulnerability Index - DROGHT-ADAPT – web platform
  • 4. 1. Agrometeorological drought indicators Scorching heat intensity Soil moisture Frequency of dry months / 1970-2012 / Maize crop 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 nr. luni BECHET BOTOSANI BUZAU CONSTANTA GALATI GRIVITA ORADEA TG.JIU SATU MARE TIMISOARA VASLUI TG.MURES tendinta Frequency of dry months on the maize crop over the 1970-2011 period , 22 agromet stations from South of Romania
  • 5. June – August 2000 June 2003 November 2011 August 2012 SPI index - 3 1. Climatic drought indicators
  • 6. Spatial distribution of the Palmer Drought Severity annual index (1961-2010) Trends of 6 – month SPEI values (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) over the 1961-2010 period. Growth trends are indicated in red and the lowering ones in blue. SPEI PDSI / annual values
  • 7. Spatial distribution of the Palmer Drought Severity index for the warm season months (May-August over the 1961-2010 period). The negative values indicate the tendency of aridity and the positive ones show exceeding rainfalls. Hatched zones shows statistically significant trends at a 90% confidence level (according with Mann Kendall test) PDSI / seasonal values
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Date Soil moisture (mc/ha) % CAu (Soil water supply capacity) Classes 20.07.2013 883 55 %CAu Satisfactory supply 31.07.2013 695 43 %CAu Moderate pedological drought 10.08.2013 548 34 %CAu Strong pedological drought 20.08.2013 667 42 %CAu Moderate pedological drought MODIS – LAI (1 km) evolution in the Olt and Covasna agricultural areas for 20 July to 20 August 2013 2. Drought related-indices derived from remote sensing data
  • 11. MODIS NDWI and NDDI over Covasna county on 21.07 -13.08.2013 Date Soil moisture (mc/ha) % CAu (Soil water supply capacity) Classes 10.07.2013 1216 76 %CAu Close to the optimal supply 20.07.2013 883 55 %CAu Satisfactory supply 31.07.2013 695 43 %CAu Moderate pedological drought 10.08.2013 548 34 %CAu Strong pedological drought 20.08.2013 667 42 %CAu Moderate pedological drought 21.07 – 28.07.2013 29.07 – 5.08.2013 6.08 – 13.08.2013
  • 12. NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the amount of precipitation registered at Caracal weather station (wheat crop) May – September 2013 Through comparing it with the precipitation recorded at Caracal weather station, a minimum NDVI value was noticed at the beginning of May, due to the lack of precipitation. Further, due to the precipitation recorded in May and June, the NDVI values returned to normal (> 0.6). A NDVI decrease trend can be noticed over the interval when wheat was harvested (July). The same trend can be seen in the course of NDWI. NDWI correlates well with the moisture measured at the stations and in the test area. The maximum values of NDWI (~0.4) correspond to medium vegetation water content and to medium vegetation fraction cover.
  • 13. NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the soil moisture measured at Caracal weather station (sun flower) NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the amount of precipitation registered at Caracal weather station (sun flower) - The decrease of both NDVI and NDWI for the sun flower and maize crops in August through September 2013 is explained by the decreasing of the soil water moisture reserve and rainfall deficit. - The satellite remote sensing techniques play an important role in crop identification; disease and water stress detection, because they provide spatially explicit information and access to remote locations. The use of multispectral satellite data may ensure an improvement of the classical methods destined to determine the agrometeorological parameters of interest. - The vegetation indices are among the most commonly used satellite data products for the evaluation, monitoring, and measurement of vegetation cover, condition, biophysical processes, and change. The main advantages consist in the possibility to obtain spatial information with a resolution varying from kilometers to meters and to update those data at time intervals that may vary from hours to seasons. NDVI and NDWI evolution from MODIS and the amount of precipitation registered at Caracal weather station (corn)
  • 14. FUTURE STEPS of agromet operational activity: - EU Funding Period for 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 periods / Operational Sectoral Programme for Environment (POS-MEDIU) -NMA project: The development of the national system of monitoring and warning of extreme weather phenomena for the protection of life and property materials. - In 2007-2013 period will be implemented the activities related of modernization of meteo and agrometerological networks: 1.Meteorological network – 31 weather meteo stations (MWAS) in order to complete the automatic meteo network and dedicated software for processing data in automatic flow. 2. Agrometeorlogical network: - Modernization of agromet network / 25 soil moisture portable systems / new systems implemented within 5 November 2014 - Windows Server /CISC x86 6-core - National data base platform / type SQL Server 2008 - Modernization of applications in operational activity – dedicated software for agrometeorological data and indicators (national level)
  • 15. Agromonitoring system / conceptual scheme 2 components: 1. Local level / agromet station - metadata 2. National level – web application 3. Validation of data at regional level by 7 responsible with agromet activity using a web interface
  • 16. Type of messages: - Phenology - Metadata - Soil moisture Soil moisture data
  • 17. Agromet web-software application / 80 agromet indices
  • 18. Drought vulnerability scales DVI Vulnerability Scales Color scale 0.00 – 0.49 No or less vulnerability 0.50 – 0.99 Low vulnerability 1.00 – 1.49 Medium vulnerability 1.50 – 1.99 High vulnerability 2.00 – 2.49 Very high vulnerability 2.50 – 3.00 Extreme vulnerability  W i DVI = KN where: DVI = Drought Vulnerability Index N = Number of indicators under consideration W I = Weights of drought vulnerability indicators, where I = 1, 2….N k = Upper limit of vulnerability weights (e.g. scale = 0-k, where k is highest value of W I 3. Drought vulnerability index (DVI) based on climatic variables Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern European Countries / WMO-GWP Initiative . - Activity 5.4. Drought Risk Management Scheme: a decision support system Milestone no. 2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought assessment based on available GIS information including population map, type of economic
  • 19. Vulnerability level Scales Heat stress (HS) SPEI Soil Moisture (SM) No vulnerability 0 No stress <10 0 No deficit <-.0.99 0 No deficit 100%AWC Low Vulnerability 1 Low stress 11-30 1 Low deficit -1.99 to -1 1 Low deficit 65-100%AWC High vulnerability 2 Moderate stress 31 -50 2 Moderate dry -2.99 to -2 2 Moderate deficit 35-65%AWC Extreme vulnerability 3 Strong stress >51 3 Very Dry <-.3 3 Strong deficit 0-35%AWC Drought vulnerability component scale Heat stress - HS SPEI Soil Moisture - SM
  • 20. Drought Vulnerability Index for maize crop during the critical period for water plant needs (August) The most critical areas recorded in the south, south-east and west regions
  • 21. CONSIDERATIONS on Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) - This approach is based on the combination of several climatic indicators over long periods of time (>30 years 1961-2010). Also, these indicators based on climatic variables have major influences on plant vegetative processes. The climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration associated with soil data have a great influence on the aridization processes. The soil type and crop data are also important. In term of meteorological definition, a drought period is defined by a significant deficit in the rainfall regime. The heat waves produce thermal stress to plants even if water is not limited especially during the summer period. Pedological drought refers to a significant deficit in the soil moisture. For agriculture, drought is defined by parameters affecting crops growth and yield. All these type of drought affect agricultural production loss varying function of their intensity and duration. - The next phase of this research is to explore the drivers of vulnerability and identify the adaptation pathways of agriculture to climate variability and change. In this regard, this analysis enabled us to identify the most vulnerable regions for maize crop in Romania using different climatic indicators and expert analisys (based on screening approach method). Results obtained suggest a major focus on areas of the greatest needs in terms of vulnerability to drought events. Vulnerability has been expressed as a function of exposure and intensity at different level in time and space. The approach is useful in evaluating the vulnerability of crop systems to drought and may help the decision makers to formulate more specific and targeted climate adaptation policies to reduce production losses in agriculture.
  • 22. Results of the Romanian research in adaptation measures to drought in agriculture Project SEE /C/0001/2.2./X: A structured network for integration of climate knowlegde into policy and territorial planning – OrientGate (2012-2014) WG4: TC 1 / Forestry and Agriculture Pilot study 2: Climate change adaptation measures in Romanian agriculture field Responsible: National Meteorolgical Administration EPA Covasna - partner
  • 23. OrientGate project area The ORIENTGATE project aims to: - Foster the integration of climate change in territorial planning and development - Coordinate climate change adaptation efforts in South Eastern Europe - Connect climate change policy planners and decision makers with the communities that produce climate knowledge The Partnership: - 33 partners (Ministries, NHMS, Regional Public Authorities, Municipalities and Environmental Agency) - Led by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) Italy
  • 24. OrientGate 3 Thematic Centers and 6 specific Pilot Studies
  • 25. The study area of Pilot Study 2  Olt county/ Caracal area is located in the south part of the Oltenia region, in a vulnerable area to extreme conditions (drought/water scarcity).  Covasna county / Tg. Secuiesc area is located in the south-eastern part of the Transilvania region, in a vulnerable area to extreme events (drought/floods). Observed changes of the climatic condition in the Pilot Study 2 area – Caracal and Covasna sites, in the context of CC Summary Different cropping systems (winter wheat and maize); RegCMs climatic predictions at a very fine resolution over 2021-2050 and 2071-2100; Different technological sequences were analyzed by alternative simulations of crop management practices: changes in sowing date, altered genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D) for genotype selection, irrigation needs, etc. Implementation NMA (PP10): is responsible for implementing Pilot 2 (Task 1-3) EPA Covasna (PP9): participate to the implementation process (Task 1-3).
  • 26. PILOT STUDY 2 AGROCLIMATIC CONDITION IN THE CONTEXT OF CC y = 0,0214x + 10,63 9,0 9,5 10,0 10,5 11,0 11,5 12,0 12,5 13,0 13,5 14,0 C Mean annual air temperature trend in Caracal / 1961 - 2010 1961 - 1990 / 10.9C 1981 - 2010 / 11.4C, +0.5C CARACAL 1961-1990 / 10.9ºC 1981-2010 / 11.4ºC, +0.5ºC ► 2007: 12.9C (+1.9C) ► 1969: 10.0 C (-0.9C) y = 0,0216x + 6,4807 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 Mean annual air temperature trend in Tg. Secuiesc /1961-2010 C Tg. Secuiesc / COVASNA 1961-1990 / 6.8ºC 1981-2010 / 7.2ºC, +0.4ºC ► 2007: 8.5C (+1.7C) ► 1985: 5.6 C (-1.2C)
  • 27. Warmest years in Caracal, over 1961 – 2010 period (1961-1990 / 10.9C) Annual air temperature Deviation 1. 2007 12.9C 1.9C 2. 1994, 2000 12.6C 1.7C 3. 2008, 2009 12.2C 1.3 C 4. 1990, 2002 12.0C 1.1C 5. 2001 11.9C 1.0C 6. 1966, 1999 11.8C 0.9C 7. 1961, 1989 11.7C 0.8C 8. 1983, 1992 11.6C 0.7C 9. 2004 11.5C 0.6C 10. 1968, 1975, 2006, 2010 11.4C 0.5C 11. 2003 11.3C 0.4C 2000-2010 / 10 warmest years Warmest years in Tg. Secuiesc, over 1961 – 2010 period (1961-1990 / 6.8C) Annual air temperature Deviation 1. 1994, 8.6C 1.8C 2. 2007 8.5C 1.7C 3. 2009 8.2C 1.4C 4. 2008 8.1C 1.3C 5. 1999 7.8C 1.0C 6. 1966, 1989, 1990, 2000, 2002 7.7C 0.9C 7. 2006 7.5C 0.7C 8. 2001, 2004 7.4C 0.6C 9. 1975 7.3C 0.5C 10. 1971, 1972, 1968, 1977, 1983 7.2C 0.4C 11. 1998, 2005 7.1C 0.3C 2000-2010 / 9 warmest years
  • 28. y = 1,5858x + 12,426 0 50 100 150 200 250 Intensity of scorching heat trend in summer period - CARACAL / 1961-2013 Tmax≥32C HEAT STRSS /1961-2013 y = 0,3066x - 3,4962 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Intensity of scorching heat trend in summer period -Tg. Secuiesc / 1961-2013 Tmax≥32C CARACAL 1. 2012 / 224 Units 2. 2013 / 195 Units 3. 2000 / 189 Units 4. 2007 / 159 Units 5. 1987, 1993 / 121 Units 1961-1990 / 36 Units 1981-2010 / 76 Units Tg. Secuiesc / COVASNA 1. 2012 / 61 Units 2. 2013 / 40 Units 3. 2007 / 39 Units 4. 1987 / 24 Units 5. 2000 / 21 Units 1961-1990 / 2 Units 1981-2010 / 7 Units
  • 29. Interval Monthly rainfall amounts (mm) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 1961-1990 38,7 38,9 40,0 47,9 63,1 73,2 60,4 46,3 32,1 32,4 47,7 45,2 1981 - 2013 31,9 29,6 36,9 43,9 51,6 60,2 51,8 41,0 38,5 39,3 41,0 40,5 Deviation -6,8 -9,3 -3,1 -4,0 -11,5 -13,0 -8,6 -5,3 6,3 6,9 -6,7 -4,7 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 1961-1990 1981-2010 Evolution of the mean monthly rainfall (mm) in Caracal over 1981-2010 period, compared with the baseline climate period (1961-1990) Mean monthly rainfall trend over 1981-2013, compared with the baseline climate period/ Caracal
  • 30. Interval Monthly rainfall amounts (mm) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 1961-1990 20,7 18,8 19,8 44,9 64,4 79,8 79,2 68,8 39,3 27,4 20,1 17,5 1981 - 2013 17,0 18,5 22,6 44,7 69,0 82,6 74,3 67,4 42,0 31,8 20,7 22,6 Deviation -3,7 -0,3 2,8 -0,2 4,6 2,8 -4,9 -1,4 2,7 4,4 0,6 5,1 Mean monthly rainfall trend over 1981-2013, compared with the baseline climate period/ Tg. Secuiesc 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 1961-1990 1981-2010 Evolution of the mean monthly rainfall (mm) in Tg. Secuiesc over 1981-2010 period, compared with the baseline climate period (1961-1990)
  • 31. CARACAL / 1961 – 2010  2 years / 4.0% - excessively droughty years (<350.0 mm/year)  9 years / 18,0% - dry years (351.0 – 450.0 mm/year)  25 years / 50,0% - moderate dry years (451.0 – 600.0 mm/year) TOTAl dry years - 36 years / 72,0%)  6 years / 12,0% - optimal years (601.0 – 700.0 mm/year)  8 years / 16,0% - excessive rainy years (701.0 – 800.0 mm/year) The frequency of droughty/rainy years (1961-2010) 2006-2007 2011-2012 Tg. Secuiesc / 1961 – 2010  14 years / 28,0% - dry years (351.0 – 450.0 mm/year)  28 years / 56,0% - moderate dry years (451.0 – 600.0 mm/year) TOTAl dry years - 42 years / 84,0%)  6 years / 12,0% - optimal years (601.0 – 700.0 mm/year)  2 years / 4,0% - excessive rainy years (701.0 – 800.0 mm/year)
  • 32. DECADE XX-TH CENTURY EXTREMELY DROUGHTY YEARS EXTREMELY RAINY YEARS 1961-1970 1961-1962, 1967-1968 / 2 years 1968-1969, 1969-1970 / 2 years 1971-1980 1973-1974, 1975-1976 / 2 years 1972-1973, 1978-1979 / 2 years 1981-1990 1982-1983, 1984-1985, 1986-1987, 1989-1990 / 4 years - 1991-2000 1992-1993, 1994-1995, 1995-1996, 1999-2000 / 4 years 1990-1991 / 1 year XXI-ST CENTURY 2001-2010 2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2006-2007, 2008-2009 / 5 years 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2009-2010 / 3 years 2011-2020 2011-2012, ……….. ………. Droughty and rainy years /1961-2020 DECADE XX-TH CENTURY EXTREMELY DROUGHTY YEARS EXTREMELY RAINY YEARS 1961-1970 1961-1962, 1962-1963, 1963-1964 / 3 years 1969-1970 / 1 year 1971-1980 1973-1974, 1975-1976 / 2 years 1972-1973, 1974-1975, 1978-1979 / 3 years 1981-1990 1984-1985, 1985-1986, 1986-1987, 1989-1990 / 4 years - 1991-2000 1991-1923, 1993-1994, 1997-1998 / 3 years 1990-1991 / 1 year XXI-ST CENTURY 2001-2010 2000-2001, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2006-2007 / 4 years 2009-2010 / 1 year 2011-2020 2011-2012, ………. ……………. Caracal Tg. Secuiesc
  • 33. -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 1961-1990 2021-2050 C Projected changes in monthly means of air temperature for decade 2021-2050 / CARACAL Air Temperature Rainfall I 0,2 -1,9 II 0,3 9,3 III 0,4 3,4 IV 0,6 3,5 V 0,7 -2.8 VI 0,8 -0,8 VII 1,3 -10,3 VIII 1,1 -2,3 IX 0,5 -8,4 X 0,3 -6,6 XI 0,3 -15,1 XII 0,0 -10,8 AN +0,5C -4.5% Projected changes of the monthly air temperature and rainfall for decade 2020-2050 CARACAL RegCMs / SRES A1B scenarios 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII 1961-1990 2021-2050 mm
  • 34. Scenariul RCP 8.5 Scenariul RCP 2.6 Climate change scenarios / 2021-2050 vs.1971-2000 CMIP5 experiments – summer season
  • 35. Recommendations and options to improve: - water use efficiency (WUE) and - the genotype varieties and yields A case study for CARACAL and COVASNA agricultural areas (RegCM3/2020-2050 and 2071-2100/SRES-A1B)
  • 36. 270 257 251 240 250 260 270 280 1961-1990 2021-2050 2071-2100 days Growing season duration / winter wheat and maize crops RegCMs/ 2021-2050 and 2071-2100/ SRES A1B scenario Shortening vegetation season with 13-19 days for winter wheat, and 15 to 25 days for the maize crop 142 127 117 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1961-1990 2021-2050 2071-2100 days Maize growing season duration / CARACAL Winter wheat growing season duration / CARACAL No. days of SD / Winter wheat Diff. 1961-1990 270 2021-2050 257 -13 2071-2100 251 -19 No. days of SD / Maize Diff. 1961-1990 142 2021-2050 127 -15 2071-2100 117 -25
  • 37. Sowing date WUE (kg.m-3) Base WUE (kg.m-3) 2020s WUE (kg.m-3) 2050s November 1 1.35 1.52 1.88 October 20 1.30 1.41 1.78 October 10 1.20 1.38 1.62 September 30 1.10 1.26 1.50 September 20 1.09 1.18 1.38 September 10 0.96 1.10 1.25 Water is used more efficiently by the winter wheat crop with the later sowing date (October 20 and November 1) in comparison with earlier dates of September / CARACAL 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2 September 10 September 20 September 30 October 10 October 20 November 1 Base 2020s 2050s WUE (kg.m-3) Recommendations to improve effective use of water by crops (WUE) / change in sowing date
  • 38. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Current climate 2020s 2050s apr.01 apr.11 apr.21 Sowing date WUE (kg.m-3) Base WUE (kg.m-3) 2020s WUE (kg.m-3) 2050s April 1 4.45 12.5 16.5 April 11 3.5 9.9 12.3 April 20 2.05 5.1 8.7 Water is used more efficiently by the maize crop with an earlier sowing date (April 1 and 11) in comparison with later date (April 20) / CARACAL Recommendations to improve effective use of water by crops (WUE) / change in sowing date
  • 39. 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 Current climate Var 1 Var 2 Var 3 Var 4 Var 5 kg/ha Winter wheat grain yield /2021-2050/450ppm Altereted genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D) / Fundulea 29 Winter wheat - altered genetic coefficients (P1V and P1D)/ Fundulea 29 Specific. Current climate P1V=6.0 Scenario VAR 1 P1V=3.0/P1D=3.0 2020-2050 VAR 2 P1V=4.0/P1D=3.5 / 450 ppm VAR 3 P1V=6.0/P1D=2.5 VAR 4 P1V=4.0/P1D=2.0 VAR 5 P1V=6.0/P1D=1.0 GY (kg/ha) 4452 5014 5238 5118 5022 4989 SD (days) 270 258 255 252 243 241 The most suitable combinations - winter wheat varieties with moderate vernalization and photoperiod requirements / P1V =4.0/P1D=3.5
  • 40. Adaptation measures to drought in the context of CC: changing of the sowing date ORIENTGATE Study Pilot 2: Olt County / Caracal area Covasna County / Tg. Secuiesc area 2021-2050 Winter wheat: later sowing date Caracal area: October 20 and November 1 Tg. Secuiesc area: September 10 and October 5 Maize: earlier sowing date Caracal area: April 1 and 11 Tg. Secuies area: March 20 and April 1
  • 41. Technical Working Group Meeting – SEE OrientGate Project 1-2 April 2014, Romania 1st April 2014, scientific working group meeting / Bucharest The first day of the meeting was dedicated to scientific debates. The meeting included a discussion of current status of project, a presentation of preliminary results of Pilot Study 2, and an overview of future steps to identify the most suitable options for reducing the impacts of climate change (especially drought) as the best adaptation measures on agriculture in the selected pilot area; 65 participants attended the event namely representatives from the Romanian Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences “Gheorghe Ionescu-Sisesti”, the Romanian Academy, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Agricultural Research-Development Station Caracal and specialists working in the areas of agriculture, geography, water resources management, environment and plant protection; Also participated the representatives from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, Forest Department in Austria (BMLFUW) which is the coordinator of the TC 1 and from the Environmental Protection Agency of Covasna which is the partner in the project; 8 scientific papers presented during the 1st day of the Technical Working Group Meeting.
  • 42. •Presenting the current status and the results of the Orientgate Project in the Romanian media, RTV Television Broadcast. Technical Working Group Meeting – SEE OrientGate Project 2 April 2014, Caracal, Romania 2 April 2014 - Field trip to the Agricultural Research-Development Station Caracal to visit the experimental plots developed under Pilot Study 2
  • 43. - OrientGate publications / Book including all 6 case studies and leaflets - Pilot Study 2 / 200 Brochure; 100 Books on adaptation to drought in Romanian agriculture (English/Romanian version) Local Municipality from Caracal and Covasna will be the main end-users of the project results in order to develop drought-risk management tool and adaptation measures and farmers to put in practice the recommendations.
  • 45. Warnings at national level and now-casting forecasts at local level - Seasonal forecasts (1-3 months) - Regional forecasts (2 weeks) - Agromet forecats /weekly - Soil moisture maps /daily - Notes on the drought evolution TODAY / Internet – free access of meteorological forecasts and agromet information (http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm/?lang=ro_ro)
  • 46. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES ON DROUGHT MONITORING IN ROMANIA Decision-making support system for the integrated management of drought in agriculture / DROUHT - ADAPT Web Platform for drought monitoring and forecast COMPONENTS Historical climate data (e.g. maps in GIS environment for each variables (temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, etc.) and extreme data of weather stations/ representative for agriculture Drought Action Plan / prevention measures on specific phases of intervention Agromet station / climatic data, soil and phenological data Vulnerability Drought Index (DVI) Technical recommendations for agricultural crop calendar / at regional evel Warnings and forecats – 1. Meteorological forecasts / daily for the next 7 days; and warnings of drought events and other extreme phenomena (heat stress, extreme rainfall s, heat waves, etc) 2. Agromet forecasts /daily for the next 7 days 3. Seasonal forecasts (1-3 months) 1. Optimum 2. Pre-alert 3. Alert 4. Emerency Phase Optimum Pre-alert Alert Emergency Actions Planification Monitoring and Control Intervention Tye of measures Strategic Tactical Emergency
  • 47. Agromet station Jan. Febr. Marc. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Alexandria Barlad Timisoara Craiova Drought monitoring and warnings / on-line system Agromet station Drought Risk level Scenario (Estimation / update every 2 weeks or 1 month) Alexandria Very low Barlad Medium Timisoara High Craiova Extreme
  • 48. Soil moisture / 3 October 2014 http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm/?lang=ro_ro DROUGHT
  • 49. Thank you for your attention! 49