Minh Le | DOE Solar Program

SOLAR ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM

Minh Le
SunShot: Chief Engineer
Solar Energy Technologies Program
The Apollo Mission of Our Times U.S. Department of Energy
minh.le@ee.doe.gov

U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program Slide 1

Imagine a World…

What if this is a reality?
Solar electricity infrastructure with an LCOE of 5-6 ¢/kWh,
without subsidies, broadly across the United States

 Jobs and Competitiveness: Innovation that
ensures the U.S. leads the way on
clean energy, supporting new jobs
and opportunities for Americans

 National Energy Security:
Independence from fossil
fuel and increased national
security

 Healthy Environment:
Huge carbon reduction and
cleaner air


And U.S. competitiveness for international
PV market share and green jobs is at risk
Global & U.S. Annual PV Shipments by Region 2009 Module Shipment
50% 16,000
(by Manufacturer)
1995: 43%

Our Sputnik Moment 14,000

40% First Solar
U.S. Market Share Percentage

1,057 MW
12,000

PV Module Shipments (MW)
Other
2,638 MW Suntech
672 MW
2000: 27% 10,000
30% Sharp
Solar
570 MW
8,000
Yingli
525 MW
ROW
20%
6,000
China & Taiwan Motech
338 MW
Europe Q-Cells
4,000 518 MW
Japan Kyocera
340 MW Trina JA Solar
10% 2010*: 7%
399 MW 509 MW
U.S. SunPower
2,000 347 MW
U.S. Share

•Note: 2010* are preliminary data. News (3/2001), 2001-2004: PV News (3/2006),
0% 0 2005-2010*: Navigant Consulting (2/2011).
•Sources:
2009 Module Shipment: Navigant Consulting
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010*

Global & Annual PV Shipments by Region: (4/2010).
1990-92 : PV News (2/1993), 1993-2000: PV


The U.S. has one of the strongest solar resources
in the world – but lags in deployment

Cumulative Installed PV
(through 2009)

Italy 1,167 MW China 305 MW
France 272 MW
Rest of E.U.
1,333 MW
U.S.
1,650 MW
Germany
9,785 MW
Rest of World
2,374 MW

Japan
2,633 MW
Spain
3,386 MW

U.S. Department of Energy – Solar Energy Technologies Program 4
Slide 4

SunShot Initiative:
Apollo mission of our time

Moon Shot SunShot
“We choose to go to the moon in this decade Solar energy to be cost competitive
and do the other things, not because they are with fossil fuels without subsidies by
easy, but because they are hard…. the end of the decade
“Because that challenge is one that we are Working with US industry, national labs
willing to accept, one we are unwilling to and academia to innovate and to lay the
postpone, and one which we intend to win….” foundation for a subsidy-free solar
– September 12, 1962 electricity infrastructure across the U.S.


Widespread U.S. Adoption of
Solar Energy Technologies
Reference Case SunShot
$1/Watt Case
2030 Utility PV
(GW)

< 0.1
0.1 - 1
1-5
5 - 10
10 - 20
20 – 30
> 30

• Cost target for widespread (unsubsidized) U.S. adoption would be
empowered by fundamental innovations that:
– Reduce costs across the full technology pipeline,
– Support advances in both existing and new PV technologies, and
– Promote investor confidence through long-term policies’

• Successful U.S. market for solar will help create a clean energy economy,
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping prevent climate change

U.S. Energy Production and Consumption
2009
U.S. Energy Production: 73.6 Quadrillion Btu
Natural Gas
33%
Crude Oil
15%
U.S. Renewable Energy Production: 5.1 Quadrillion Btu

Renewable
Energy
7%

Nuclear %
13

%
,

%
So %

79
11% ind

,2
7

s,
al,

lar
W

as
m

om
er
Coal Hydropower

oth

Bi
Ge
30% 4%

U.S. Energy Consumption: 94.8 Quadrillion Btu
Crude Oil Nuclear
37% 9%

Hydropower U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption: 5.1 Quadrillion Btu
3%

Renewable
Energy
5%
3%
%

2%

9%
7

,1
al,

r,

ind

7
la
rm

s,
So

W

as
he

om
ot
Ge

Bi
Natural Gas Coal
25% 21% Source: EIA


Costs of PV modules have followed a
very strong cost reduction trend

Solar PV Experience Curves:
Leading Technologies: Crystalline Silicon (c-Si), Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)
Source: (CdTe) First Solar Earnings Presentation, SEC Filings; (c-Si) Navigant, Bloomberg NEF, NREL internal cost models

• Past progress may
not be a reliable
indicator of future
performance


Reaching cost targets will require
advances in all PV system components
Utility System with $1/W Goal

Estimates do not include the cost of land. Hardware costs include power electronics and mounting.
Non-hardware costs include permitting, installation, etc.

PV system cost reduction areas


Approach to 50¢/W modules:
CIGS example

$3.50
$ Manufacturing Cost
∝
$3.00 Watt Efficiency

$2.50

$2.00
$/WDC

$3.50
$1.50 $0.42

$0.28
$1.00
$1.70 $0.28
$0.22
$0.50

$0.50
$0.00
2008 2010 Manufacturing Jsc Voc FF $1/W Target
Cost Reduction


Barriers-based investments:
Manufacturing cost – CIGS example

Cost
Drivers Reduction Pathways
Technical Risk
Potential
Materials cost and availability High Medium Thinner layers or replacement with
(Indium, selenium, cadmium) Earth abundant and benign materials
(e.g., CZTS, ZnS, …)
Transparent Conductors High Low ITO alternative materials and/or
deposition methodologies
Large scale spatial uniformity High Medium Improved in-situ metrology, thermal
and improved throughput control, and elimination of chemical
with same or lower cost of bath CdS
capital
Glass and/or Encapsulants Medium Medium Flexible low-cost front and backsheets
with low WVTR (i.e., ultrabarriers, glass
replacement)
Operational costs of Medium Medium Eliminate batch selenization, alternative
selenization ovens deposition methodologies (e.g.,
atmospheric deposition).


Cell and module efficiency

η ∝ J SC ⋅VOC ⋅ FF
Efficiency


Efficiency – CIGS example

η ∝ J SC ⋅VOC ⋅ FF
Potential
Technical
Current Pathways
Action Risk
Increase
(mA/cm2)
Larger band gap junction 2.5 Medium Replace CdS (e.g. 2.5 eV) with wide
partner bandgap emitter (i.e., ZnS (3.1 eV))
Improved TCO 1.5 Medium Develop TCO with high conductivity,
transparency, environmental stability
(i.e., a-InZnO)
Reduce CdS window 1.5 Medium Develop 20 nm thick continuous CdS
layer thickness layer without shunting.
Minimize reflection off 1.5 Medium Develop a suitable low cost anti-
CIGS surface reflection coating
Improved monolithic 1 Low Reduce line width of laser/mechanical
integration scribing

SunShot system development plan

Technologies not ready Final phase may include
for integration teams may down select competition
continue in development for large scale deployment
on Government facility.

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED TEAMS

(based on road maps)


SunShot portfolio – current & upcoming

1 TRL (Technology Readiness Level) 9

Basic Energy PV Incubator Solar Solar America
Sciences Demonstration Cities
Supply Chain Zone
Transformational Codes and
Next Generation Balance of Systems-Hardware High Standards
Penetration
Foundational PV Manufacturing Initiative Workforce
Program to $1/W Systems Development
Advance Cell Power Electronics
Efficiency (PACE) Module State/Utility
SEGIS
Performance Engagement
SunShot
CSP Components and Storage Accelerator
Fellowships Large-scale
Deployment

Basic Energy Sciences and the long-term future
of SunShot – TRL 1

Basic Energy Sciences (BES) – basic research
– Fundamental scientific understanding of new solar
electric materials and concepts
– Complementary to, but well-differentiated from, the
EERE Solar Program

Energy Frontier Research Centers (EFRCs)
– 13 of 46 are focused on solar – many on OPV

Pipeline basic research into applied research
– Bridge from Science to Technology will support
research at EFRCs that have matured to applied
research


EERE / SunShot Postdoctoral Fellowships

Develop the next generation of scientific Fellowship Duration (years)
leaders 1 (renewable for 2nd year)

– EERE research topic areas include: Fellowship Award ($)
– Position postdocs for faculty-level research $65k stipend + benefits + ORISE Admin = $105k
positions at universities and national labs Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) for 20 fellows
– Graduate fellowships are a future possibility
~$1M (~5 postdocs)
– Modeled after NSF, DoD, NIH, and Office of
Science fellowships ~$400k (~2 postdocs)

~$200k (~1 postdoc)
20% Innovation Time – A unique fellowship
opportunity ~$400k (~2 postdocs)
– Fellows pursue innovative self- ~$200k (~1 postdoc)
directed projects in addition to designated
research project ~$800k (~4 postdocs)

– Modeled after Google and HP ~$200k (~1 postdoc)

~$400k (~2 postdocs)

Also: SunShot Policy Fellowships ~$400k (~2 postdocs)
– Fellows help design, manage, and assess new Objective
Solar Program funding opportunities Develop the next generation of scientific leaders in Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy


Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Postdoctoral Fellowships
Develop the next generation of scientific leaders Fellowship Duration (years)
– EERE research topic areas – examples include: 1 (renewable for 2nd year)
• New PV materials, phenomena, and processes Fellowship Award ($)
• Structure-activity relationship models for batteries $65k stipend + benefits + $20K research allowance
• Characterization of advanced hydrogen storage Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($) for 20 fellows
materials
~$1M (~5 postdocs)
• And others…
– Applicant (U.S. citizen) finds research mentor ~$400k (~2 postdocs)

and writes joint proposal ~$200k (~1 postdoc)
– Positions postdocs for faculty-level research ~$400k (~2 postdocs)
positions at universities and national labs
~$200k (~1 postdoc)
20% Innovation Time – A unique fellowship
~$800k (~4 postdocs)
opportunity
~$200k (~1 postdoc)
– Fellows pursue innovative self-directed projects
in addition to mentored research project ~$400k (~2 postdocs)

– Modeled after Google and HP ~$400k (~2 postdocs)

Objective
Develop the next generation of scientific leaders in
APPLICATIONS DUE JUNE 30,2011 Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/education/postdoctoral_fellowships/

SunShot Initiative Policy Fellowships

Motivated young scientists and engineers
implementing national energy policy
– SunShot Initiative announced by DOE Secretary
Steven Chu in conjunction with the President’s
2011 State of the Union address
– Modeled on the AAAS Science and Technology
Policy Fellowships and the ARPA-E Fellowship
– Targets rising Ph.D. candidates and recent grads
SunShot Policy Fellows:
– Work in Washington, D.C. at DOE Headquarters
– Develop a deep understanding of solar energy
science and technology, and of the solar industry Fellowship Duration (years)

– Help design, manage, assess, and prioritize new 1 (renewable for 2nd year)

solar energy funding opportunities Fellowship Award ($)
Salary for Ph.D. start at $75K + benefits

Objective
APPLICATIONS ACCEPTED ON A Bring motivated young scientists and engineers to
Washington to help achieve the SunShot Initiative
ROLLING BASIS

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/education/stp_fellowships.html

Transformational PV Science and Technology:
Next Gen PV II – TRL 2-3

• Exceeding the Shockley-Queisser limit
PERFORMANCE

• Overcoming the Staebler-Wronski effect
• Advanced light trapping
• Novel earth-abundant PV materials
• Biomimetic PV concepts
• ???

TIME Contract Duration (years)
• Bridge gap between basic and applied 4 years with stage gate at year 2
research
Max Contract Award ($)
– Solar energy science  PV technology solutions
$1.5M ($375k/yr for 4 yrs)
– Demonstrate proof-of-concept in a PV device or
component Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($)
• Seed the technology pipeline with high payoff $10M (13 new awards every 2 years)
long-term projects Cost Share Minimum
– Jump learning curves – Revolutionary & disruptive 0%
– Accelerate to SunShot targets Objective
• Support innovative researchers 4 years with stage gate at year 2


Foundational Program to Advance
Cell Efficiency (F-PACE) – TRL 2-4

• Close the PV efficiency gaps
– Significant potential –
esp. for thin film PV
– Scientific foundation for
overcoming technical
barriers
– Improved understanding of
materials and devices
• Position technology for
$0.50/W modules Topic 1 Topic 2 Topic 3
(Sub-cell) (Cell level) (Barrier Focus Teams)
– Will feed into Module
Contract Duration (years)
Performance Accelerator
3
• Collaborate with NSF Max Contract Award ($)
– Engineering Directorate $1.5M ($1M typical) $1.5M $6M
will provide $6M in funds Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($)

– Academic physical sciences ~$3M, (~9 Awards) ~$4M, (~8 Awards) ~$4-8M (~2-4 awards)

researchers Objective
Scientific advances in Cell level foundational Teams with very high
materials, device, and research closing the gaps level of focus on
process research between theoretical, lab, overcoming barriers to
& production efficiencies improved performance


$1/W PV Incubator – TRL 3-5

Sample awardees:

Alta Devices

• Foster domestic innovation & growth Tier 1 (Prototype) Tier 2 (Pilot Line)
– New technologies – clearly differentiated
– Commercial potential – market entry by 2015
– Laboratory-scale proof-of-concept  prototype 1 1.5
 pilot production Max Contract Award ($)
• Help start-up companies overcome first $1M $4M
“Valley of Death”
Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($)
– Access NREL’s expertise and resources
– Fixed firm pricing contracts – clear milestones ~$3M, (~3 Awards) ~$9M, (~3 Awards)

• Spur private investment Objective
– Since 2007, $59M in DOE funds have leveraged Accelerate transition of a Proof Scale-up Prototype to Pilot
over $1.2B in private capital of Concept to Prototype Scale Production
– Frequent solicitations

PV Supply Chain and
Cross-Cutting Technologies – TRL 4-6

Sample awardees:

High Impact Technologies 3
– Cost reductions & performance improvements with
Max Contract Award ($)
broad application
$5M ($3.5M Typical)
– Strengthen the entire domestic supply chain
Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($)
Commercial impact in 2-5 years ≈$7M, (~6 awards)
– Accelerate towards module cost-competitiveness Objective
– Directly drop-in to current manufacturing processes Broad based industry wide impact


SunShot Advanced Manufacturing
Partnerships – TRL 4-6

Coordinated hubs with critical mass Topic 1 (Academia) Topic 2 (Industry)
Strengthen U.S. PV manufacturing &
5
supply chain:
• Directly engage industry Max Contract Award ($)
$25M $100M
• Catalyze industry collaboration
– pool resources and talent Approx. Annual Cost to DOE ($)
• Link universities and national labs to industry $5M, (1-2 Awards) $20M, (1-3 Awards)
• Speed and reduce the cost of innovation Minimum Cost Share (%)
– manufacturing & process technologies 20% 50%
Leverage industry & regional funds Objective
Establish financial self-sufficiency Advance technologies with near Manufacturing pilot line scale
term impact on US manufacturing development of new technologies


U.S. PV manufacturing and industrial
scale-up – new approaches?

Loan
Guarantee
Program

• U.S. manufacturing is moving overseas, enticed by access to capital
• Building domestic manufacturing
– Scaling from 1-10 MW to 50MW
– Scaling from 50MW to 250 MW
• Gaps (supply side)
– Access to expansion capital
– Validation of off-take for bankability
• Maximize impact by leveraging state and private investments?

Concentrating Solar Power also has
pathway to cost-competitiveness
Troughs Towers

Dishes


Vision for the Future

DOE’s Solar Program efforts to accelerate
the research, development and deployment
of solar energy:
• Working to reduce carbon emissions and
create clean energy jobs
• Aggressively funding research and
discovery of fundamentally new
technologies
• Fueling the growth of the solar market by
supporting strategic partnerships


Thank You

Contact Information:

Minh Le
Chief Engineer
U.S. Department of Energy
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
Solar Energy Technologies Program

Email: minh.le@ee.doe.gov
Phone: 202-287-1372
On the web: http://www.solar.energy.gov


Minh Le | DOE Solar Program

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