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Localizing the Rural Economy from
            the Inside Out

36th Appalachian Studies Conference
      Appalachian State University
         Boone North Carolina
            March 22, 2013

     Peter Hackbert and Jalissa Hunter
              Berea College
Introduction




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   2
Resilience


3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   3
“at the heart of resilience is a very
simple notion – things change – and
   to ignore or resist this change is to
 increase our vulnerability and forego
  emerging opportunities, in so doing,
          we limit our options.”


3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   4
The Appalachian Region




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   5
EPG searches for “real-world”
                            solutions

                                                                       • Mission statement -
                                                                         educating and inspiring
                                                                         students from Appalachia to
                                                                         become service-oriented
                                                                         leaders

                                                                       • 1,600 liberal arts students

                                                                       • 150 years

What better way to encourage young Appalachians to start their own businesses than to reach out to them while they’re still trying to figure
                                           out what they should be doing with their lives?
The EPG Program defines
 “Entrepreneurial Leadership” as:

"A process when one person or a group of
people in a community originate an idea or
innovation for a needed change and influence
others in that community to commit to
realizing that change, despite the presence of
risk, ambiguity, or uncertainty".
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   8
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   9
Small Rural Appalachian Community Economic
                Development (CED)
Traditional ED Strategy / Tool                Direct, Short-term
    •   Industrial development                                                        Economic
    •   Business retention / expansion                                                Outcomes
    •   Workforce development                                                           • jobs
    •   Tourism                                                                         • firms
                                               Economic Development                     • prosperity
                                                                                        • wealth
                                               Approaches
Alternative ED Strategy / Tool
    •   Entrepreneurship                       1. Recruit firms from the outside
    •   Downtown development                   2. Strengthen/expand existing firms
    •   Arts / Creative economy                3. Promote development of new firms
    •
    •
        Cluster-based development
        Residential development
                                                                                     Other
                                                                                     Outcomes
                                                                                        • social
                                                                                        • civic
                                                                                        • environmental
CD Capacity Building Strategy /
Tool
                                              Indirect, Long-term
    •   Transportation
    •   Broadband / Internet / Social Media
    •   ED finance
    •   Philanthropy
    •   Strategic planning
    •   Leadership development
    •   Organizational development
“Would you tell me, please, which way
 I ought to go from here.” asked Alice.




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   11
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   12
“That depends a great deal on where
you want to go,” said the Cheshire Cat.


       Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland


3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   13
Begin with a vision statement




3/23/2013    Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   14
Possible Community Goals

• Economic Goals                                           • Environment Goals

• Social Goals                                             • Political Goals




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   15
Problem Statement


How do rural communities hit hard by the 2008
   economic recession approach economic
               development?




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   16
Review of the Literature
• Scholars Lambe, 2008; Drabenstott & Moore,
  2009; Morgan, Lambe, & Freyer, 2011

• Rural local economic development writers
  (Shuman, 2012; Cortese, 2011; Moltz &
  McCray, 2012)

• Both advance strategies for homegrown
  prosperity
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   17
Localization




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   18
Local Ownership Matters
1. Higher multipliers
2. Great community wealth: Fleming and Goetz
   (2011)
3. More dynamic
4. Healthier residents: Blanchard, (2012)
5. Better community planning
6. Greater creativity
7. Greater political participation


3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   19
Producing better, truer, ways of
 measuring economic, environmental
an social performance, is a critical step
in making progress towards building a
             better world.

            - Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate in
                         Economics
3/23/2013    Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   20
How can this be accomplished?




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   21
Develop Census Indicators

                                               Go to:

                   quickfacts.census.gov



3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   22
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   23
Develop Small Business Indicators

           Go to:
www.census.gov/eos/www/naics




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   24
To learn about NAICS
                                                                             explore this site




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   25
Develop Small Business Indicators

           Go to:
www.census.gov/eos/www/naics
www.census/gov/econ/cbp/index.html
          Self-Employed
   www.censtats.census.gov/cgi-
   bin/nonemployer/nonsect.pl
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   26
Develop County Business Patterns


                                             Go to:
www.census/gov/econ/cbp/index.html




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   27
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   28
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   29
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   30
Develop Small Business Indicators

Pick two or three NAICS categories

•   How many small businesses?
•   Does the data appear accurate?
•   Is the number growing or contracting?
•   How to you compare against similar
    communities?

3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   31
Develop Self-Employed Indicators

                                             Go to:
                  Self-Employed
            www.censtats.census.gov/cgi-
            bin/nonemployer/nonsect.pl



3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   32
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   33
Develop Small Business Indicators
Pick two or three NAICS categories

• How many categories have small business
  growth?
• If the number of categories are growing this is
  an indicators of diversification.
• What categories are shrinking?


3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   34
Environmental indicators
                                                Go To:

                           www.epa.gov/ncea/roe

                  www.epa.gov/myenvironment




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   35
Other Building Block Indicators
•   Local Foods
•   Renewable Energy
•   Green Building
•   Community Capital
•   Local Arts
•   Independent Retail
•   Green Manufacturing
•   Human Capacity

3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   36
City of Berea Case Study
                          Methods
• County Business patterns from the Census Bureau

• Nonemployer Statistics from the US Census Bureau

• Zip code analysis indicated that all but two of the 392
  establishments in Berea have fewer than 500
  employees and therefore qualify as small businesses.

• The Census Bureau’s Nonemployer Statistics, revealed
  an estimated 1,548 individuals have their own
  businesses in Berea, with sales of $47 million per year.
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   37
City of Berea Case Study
                   Methods (continued)

• The IMPLAN Input-Output model unifies
  various federal databases and fill in the gaps

• Compare Berea’s economy to composition
  sister cities, State of Kentucky, and the United
  States as a whole.


3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   38
Berea’s Profile
•   329 Establishments
•   1,534 Self employed
•   294 Farmers
•   2,500 Public employees
•   $413M in wages
•   $25M in state and local taxes
•   $1.9B GDP

3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   39
Compared to the USA
• 23% of the workforce is in manufacturing—more
  than 2 X the national average.
• Berea also has much greater numbers of people
  in education, health, and social services.
• 1/3 less than the national average of its
  workforce in the arts, entertainment, and
  tourism.
• Finance sector is about 1/2 the national average,
  which suggests how little capital is available for
  business growth.
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   40
Shuman argues in Going Local (1998);
   The Small-Mart Revolution (2006)
“ economic development performs best when it
is focused, laser-like, on businesses “ that are
locally owned and import substituting. Local
ownership means that working control of a
company is held within a small geographic area.
Import-substituting means that the company is
focused first and foremost (though not
exclusively) on cost effective production for local
markets.
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   41
Leakage analysis
Identifies all those sectors in the economy where a
community is unnecessarily importing outside goods and
services. Every unnecessary import represents a loss of
dollars and a loss of the "multiplier" impacts those dollars
locally.

Represents a loss of other documented benefits that local
businesses bring: knowledge, skills, tax payments,
charitable giving, revitalized downtowns, tourists,
stronger civil society, and more political participation.


3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   42
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   43
BALLE Job Leakage Calculator



                                5,739 additional jobs




3/23/2013    Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   44
40 Export Industries
• Manufacturing parts for automobile supplying
  the assembly plant in Georgetown, KY.
• Role of Berea College, and many nonprofits
  promoting human rights and environmental
  protection;
• Presence of a largely retirement population,
  nursing homes, funeral parlors, and cemeteries
• Major services sector providing residents
  throughout the region (some of whom may be
  coming to work in Berea) with child care, taxis,
  limited restaurants

3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   45
40 Local businesses that could meet
                   demand
1. Global companies (no headquarters)
2. Professional services (outsourcing pros)
3. Intermediaries (outsourcing warehousing)
4. Tourism (lacks critical mass)
5. Food and retail (not capturing shopper fair
   share)
6. Finance (no local insurance, securities brokers)
7. Health Care (need for full-service mental-health-
   care facilities)

3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   46
What If 25% of Berea businesses could
    meet 25% of local demand?


      IMPLAN MODEL – forecasts 1,398 new jobs

     BALLE Calculator – forecasts new 1,435 jobs




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   47
Some New Jobs Not Possible




3/23/2013    Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   48
3 Largest Sectors


                      Professional services (317)
                      Wholesale trade (198), and
                            Tourism (168)
•




3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   49
Five Clusters – 1,300 jobs
• Goods distribution, warehousing, and trucking
  (232 direct jobs);
• Professional services (247)
• Finance, insurance, and real estate (167)
• Local food (103)
• Tourism (60)



  3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   50
Findings
           STRENGTHS                                                  WEAKNESSES
•   Location                                               •    Limits to manufacturing
•   Manufacturing                                          •    Finance gaps
•   Education                                              •    Empty storefronts
•   Public Sector                                          •    No fun
•   Infrastructure
                                                           •    Youth out migration
•   Civic Culture
                                                           •    Tourism deficits
•   Tourism
•   Local businesses                                       •    Workforce shortcomings
•   Quality of life

3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   51
Findings
           STRENGTHS                                                  WEAKNESSES
•   Location                                               •    Limits to manufacturing
•   Manufacturing                                          •    Finance gaps
•   Education                                              •    Empty storefronts
•   Public Sector                                          •    No fun
•   Infrastructure
                                                           •    Youth out migration
•   Civic Culture
                                                           •    Tourism deficits
•   Tourism
•   Local businesses                                       •    Workforce shortcomings
•   Quality of life

3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012   52
Findings

            OPPORTUNITIES                                                  THREATS
• Regional growth                                           •     Aging population
• Industrial park                                           •     Over-focus on corporate
• Entrepreneurship innovation                                     attractions
• Arts and Crafts                                           •     Unplanned growth
• Broader approach to tourism                               •     Divisions
• Integrate the college more
  thoroughly into the city’s
  economic growth
• Partners


3/23/2013    Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   53
Findings

            OPPORTUNITIES                                                  THREATS
• Regional growth                                           •     Aging population
• Industrial park                                           •     Over-focus on corporate
• Entrepreneurship innovation                                     attractions
• Arts and Crafts                                           •     Unplanned growth
• Broader approach to tourism                               •     Divisions
• Integrate the college more
  thoroughly into the city’s
  economic growth
• Partners


3/23/2013    Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   54
Conclusion and Action Steps




3/23/2013    Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   55
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   56
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   57
Alcohol beverage sale[City-County]
            4th Class cities with permits
1.    Corbin – Whitley/ Knox      11.   Springfield – Washington
2.    Central City – Muhlenberg   12.   Vanceburg – Lewis
3.    Cumberland – Harlan         13.   Elizabethtown – Hardin
4.    Eminence – Henry            14.   Lancaster – Garrard
5.    Falmouth - Pendleton        15.   Vine Grove – Hardin
6.    Madisonville-Hopkins        16.   London – Laurel
7.    Mt. Sterling – Montgomery   17.   Jenkins - Letcher
8.    Morehead – Rowan            18.   Whitesburg- Letcher
9.    Russellville – Logan        19.   Vanceburg- Lewis
10.   Shelbyville - Washington    20.   Somerset- Pulaski
                                  21.   Manchester- Clay
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   59
3/23/2013   Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference   60

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Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out

  • 1. Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out 36th Appalachian Studies Conference Appalachian State University Boone North Carolina March 22, 2013 Peter Hackbert and Jalissa Hunter Berea College
  • 2. Introduction 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 2
  • 3. Resilience 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 3
  • 4. “at the heart of resilience is a very simple notion – things change – and to ignore or resist this change is to increase our vulnerability and forego emerging opportunities, in so doing, we limit our options.” 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 4
  • 5. The Appalachian Region 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 5
  • 6. EPG searches for “real-world” solutions • Mission statement - educating and inspiring students from Appalachia to become service-oriented leaders • 1,600 liberal arts students • 150 years What better way to encourage young Appalachians to start their own businesses than to reach out to them while they’re still trying to figure out what they should be doing with their lives?
  • 7. The EPG Program defines “Entrepreneurial Leadership” as: "A process when one person or a group of people in a community originate an idea or innovation for a needed change and influence others in that community to commit to realizing that change, despite the presence of risk, ambiguity, or uncertainty".
  • 8. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 8
  • 9. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 9
  • 10. Small Rural Appalachian Community Economic Development (CED) Traditional ED Strategy / Tool Direct, Short-term • Industrial development Economic • Business retention / expansion Outcomes • Workforce development • jobs • Tourism • firms Economic Development • prosperity • wealth Approaches Alternative ED Strategy / Tool • Entrepreneurship 1. Recruit firms from the outside • Downtown development 2. Strengthen/expand existing firms • Arts / Creative economy 3. Promote development of new firms • • Cluster-based development Residential development Other Outcomes • social • civic • environmental CD Capacity Building Strategy / Tool Indirect, Long-term • Transportation • Broadband / Internet / Social Media • ED finance • Philanthropy • Strategic planning • Leadership development • Organizational development
  • 11. “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here.” asked Alice. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 11
  • 12. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 12
  • 13. “That depends a great deal on where you want to go,” said the Cheshire Cat. Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 13
  • 14. Begin with a vision statement 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 14
  • 15. Possible Community Goals • Economic Goals • Environment Goals • Social Goals • Political Goals 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 15
  • 16. Problem Statement How do rural communities hit hard by the 2008 economic recession approach economic development? 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 16
  • 17. Review of the Literature • Scholars Lambe, 2008; Drabenstott & Moore, 2009; Morgan, Lambe, & Freyer, 2011 • Rural local economic development writers (Shuman, 2012; Cortese, 2011; Moltz & McCray, 2012) • Both advance strategies for homegrown prosperity 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 17
  • 18. Localization 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 18
  • 19. Local Ownership Matters 1. Higher multipliers 2. Great community wealth: Fleming and Goetz (2011) 3. More dynamic 4. Healthier residents: Blanchard, (2012) 5. Better community planning 6. Greater creativity 7. Greater political participation 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 19
  • 20. Producing better, truer, ways of measuring economic, environmental an social performance, is a critical step in making progress towards building a better world. - Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 20
  • 21. How can this be accomplished? 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 21
  • 22. Develop Census Indicators Go to: quickfacts.census.gov 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 22
  • 23. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 23
  • 24. Develop Small Business Indicators Go to: www.census.gov/eos/www/naics 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 24
  • 25. To learn about NAICS explore this site 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 25
  • 26. Develop Small Business Indicators Go to: www.census.gov/eos/www/naics www.census/gov/econ/cbp/index.html Self-Employed www.censtats.census.gov/cgi- bin/nonemployer/nonsect.pl 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 26
  • 27. Develop County Business Patterns Go to: www.census/gov/econ/cbp/index.html 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 27
  • 28. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 28
  • 29. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 29
  • 30. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 30
  • 31. Develop Small Business Indicators Pick two or three NAICS categories • How many small businesses? • Does the data appear accurate? • Is the number growing or contracting? • How to you compare against similar communities? 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 31
  • 32. Develop Self-Employed Indicators Go to: Self-Employed www.censtats.census.gov/cgi- bin/nonemployer/nonsect.pl 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 32
  • 33. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 33
  • 34. Develop Small Business Indicators Pick two or three NAICS categories • How many categories have small business growth? • If the number of categories are growing this is an indicators of diversification. • What categories are shrinking? 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 34
  • 35. Environmental indicators Go To: www.epa.gov/ncea/roe www.epa.gov/myenvironment 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 35
  • 36. Other Building Block Indicators • Local Foods • Renewable Energy • Green Building • Community Capital • Local Arts • Independent Retail • Green Manufacturing • Human Capacity 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 36
  • 37. City of Berea Case Study Methods • County Business patterns from the Census Bureau • Nonemployer Statistics from the US Census Bureau • Zip code analysis indicated that all but two of the 392 establishments in Berea have fewer than 500 employees and therefore qualify as small businesses. • The Census Bureau’s Nonemployer Statistics, revealed an estimated 1,548 individuals have their own businesses in Berea, with sales of $47 million per year. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 37
  • 38. City of Berea Case Study Methods (continued) • The IMPLAN Input-Output model unifies various federal databases and fill in the gaps • Compare Berea’s economy to composition sister cities, State of Kentucky, and the United States as a whole. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 38
  • 39. Berea’s Profile • 329 Establishments • 1,534 Self employed • 294 Farmers • 2,500 Public employees • $413M in wages • $25M in state and local taxes • $1.9B GDP 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 39
  • 40. Compared to the USA • 23% of the workforce is in manufacturing—more than 2 X the national average. • Berea also has much greater numbers of people in education, health, and social services. • 1/3 less than the national average of its workforce in the arts, entertainment, and tourism. • Finance sector is about 1/2 the national average, which suggests how little capital is available for business growth. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 40
  • 41. Shuman argues in Going Local (1998); The Small-Mart Revolution (2006) “ economic development performs best when it is focused, laser-like, on businesses “ that are locally owned and import substituting. Local ownership means that working control of a company is held within a small geographic area. Import-substituting means that the company is focused first and foremost (though not exclusively) on cost effective production for local markets. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 41
  • 42. Leakage analysis Identifies all those sectors in the economy where a community is unnecessarily importing outside goods and services. Every unnecessary import represents a loss of dollars and a loss of the "multiplier" impacts those dollars locally. Represents a loss of other documented benefits that local businesses bring: knowledge, skills, tax payments, charitable giving, revitalized downtowns, tourists, stronger civil society, and more political participation. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 42
  • 43. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 43
  • 44. BALLE Job Leakage Calculator 5,739 additional jobs 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 44
  • 45. 40 Export Industries • Manufacturing parts for automobile supplying the assembly plant in Georgetown, KY. • Role of Berea College, and many nonprofits promoting human rights and environmental protection; • Presence of a largely retirement population, nursing homes, funeral parlors, and cemeteries • Major services sector providing residents throughout the region (some of whom may be coming to work in Berea) with child care, taxis, limited restaurants 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 45
  • 46. 40 Local businesses that could meet demand 1. Global companies (no headquarters) 2. Professional services (outsourcing pros) 3. Intermediaries (outsourcing warehousing) 4. Tourism (lacks critical mass) 5. Food and retail (not capturing shopper fair share) 6. Finance (no local insurance, securities brokers) 7. Health Care (need for full-service mental-health- care facilities) 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 46
  • 47. What If 25% of Berea businesses could meet 25% of local demand? IMPLAN MODEL – forecasts 1,398 new jobs BALLE Calculator – forecasts new 1,435 jobs 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 47
  • 48. Some New Jobs Not Possible 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 48
  • 49. 3 Largest Sectors Professional services (317) Wholesale trade (198), and Tourism (168) • 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 49
  • 50. Five Clusters – 1,300 jobs • Goods distribution, warehousing, and trucking (232 direct jobs); • Professional services (247) • Finance, insurance, and real estate (167) • Local food (103) • Tourism (60) 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 50
  • 51. Findings STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES • Location • Limits to manufacturing • Manufacturing • Finance gaps • Education • Empty storefronts • Public Sector • No fun • Infrastructure • Youth out migration • Civic Culture • Tourism deficits • Tourism • Local businesses • Workforce shortcomings • Quality of life 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 51
  • 52. Findings STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES • Location • Limits to manufacturing • Manufacturing • Finance gaps • Education • Empty storefronts • Public Sector • No fun • Infrastructure • Youth out migration • Civic Culture • Tourism deficits • Tourism • Local businesses • Workforce shortcomings • Quality of life 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. “Localizing the Rural Economy from the Inside Out.” ASBE Conference, October 5, 2012 52
  • 53. Findings OPPORTUNITIES THREATS • Regional growth • Aging population • Industrial park • Over-focus on corporate • Entrepreneurship innovation attractions • Arts and Crafts • Unplanned growth • Broader approach to tourism • Divisions • Integrate the college more thoroughly into the city’s economic growth • Partners 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 53
  • 54. Findings OPPORTUNITIES THREATS • Regional growth • Aging population • Industrial park • Over-focus on corporate • Entrepreneurship innovation attractions • Arts and Crafts • Unplanned growth • Broader approach to tourism • Divisions • Integrate the college more thoroughly into the city’s economic growth • Partners 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 54
  • 55. Conclusion and Action Steps 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 55
  • 56. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 56
  • 57. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 57
  • 58. Alcohol beverage sale[City-County] 4th Class cities with permits 1. Corbin – Whitley/ Knox 11. Springfield – Washington 2. Central City – Muhlenberg 12. Vanceburg – Lewis 3. Cumberland – Harlan 13. Elizabethtown – Hardin 4. Eminence – Henry 14. Lancaster – Garrard 5. Falmouth - Pendleton 15. Vine Grove – Hardin 6. Madisonville-Hopkins 16. London – Laurel 7. Mt. Sterling – Montgomery 17. Jenkins - Letcher 8. Morehead – Rowan 18. Whitesburg- Letcher 9. Russellville – Logan 19. Vanceburg- Lewis 10. Shelbyville - Washington 20. Somerset- Pulaski 21. Manchester- Clay
  • 59. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 59
  • 60. 3/23/2013 Hackbert, P.H. and J. Hunter. Localizing the Appalachian Economy from the Inside Out, ASA Conference 60