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Apply Systems Thinking to World Hunger

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Seeking Solutions in Agriculture, Food Production, and Sustainability

An older presentation, uploaded to slideshare.

Video available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J-ND3nzJ7I

Publié dans : Alimentation
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Apply Systems Thinking to World Hunger

  1. 1. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved MIT SDM Systems Thinking Webinar Series Applying Systems Thinking to World Hunger: Seeking Solutions in Agriculture, Food Production, and Sustainability By Hank Roark, SDM ‘10
  2. 2. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Disclaimer These views are my own and do not represent the views of any other individual or organization.
  3. 3. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved 3
  4. 4. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved National Academy of Engineering Grand Challenges related to agriculture 4 Manage the nitrogen cycle Provide access to clean water Develop carbon sequestration methods
  5. 5. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved The agriculture engineering systems are connected to nearly every other engineering system type In world where systems are becoming increasing connected, the interactions with the agricultural system will become more numerous and boundaries less well defined. In this world, for example, agricultural becomes more reliant on communication, is a major contributor to energy, is driven by preventative health care, and is shipped globally and locally. de Weck, O., Roos, D., & Magee, C. L. (2011). Engineering Systems : Meeting Human Needs in a Complex Technological World. MIT Press. Transportation Systems Energy Systems Industrial Production Systems Educational Systems Financial Systems Water Management Systems Agricultural Systems Communication Systems Health Care System NATURE HUMANITY Agr T i de Weck et al Transportation Systems Communication Systems n onn System municati n y Health Care System ee ystem msSyy alth C ystem AA m Energ System ATU MAN ystem ATUATU MANMANMMAHUHUHHHUH gy ms Industrial Production Systems Educatio System Financ Syste RE NITY m RREE EER N E F S YYNITYY SysteS NANANANNN SS y s P ystem ducati n onal ms cial msm Systems ricultura ystems riculturaralalal Water Management Systems Wate M SystemS msm Additional interactions with agricultural systems
  6. 6. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Presentation Overview 1.  Trends 2.  History and current situation 3.  Future systems 4.  Value from systems thinking Strong focus on crop production Not covered: fisheries, forests, consumer availability, agri-biotechnolgy
  7. 7. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Trends •  Population growth and calories per capita •  Land available for crops •  Water usage •  Climate impacts
  8. 8. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Population and wealth increases means at least 60% increase in crop production needed by 2050 8 Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 Population 6.6B (2007) 9.1B (2050) Calories / Person / Day 2772 (2007) 3070 (2050) Cereals 2 billion tonnes (2007)  3 billon tonnes (2050) Meat production 260 million tonnes (2007) 455 million tonnes (2050) These are the most conservative estimates; some report needing to increase production by up to 110% over today.
  9. 9. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Arable land will increase by 10% by 2050 9 Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
  10. 10. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Arable land per capita will decrease by 10% by 2050 10 Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
  11. 11. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Agriculture will increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources 11 Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
  12. 12. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Temperature and rainfall variability increase will likely increase yield variability 12 Team, National Assessment Synthesis. Climate Change impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, 2001. Maize
  13. 13. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved History and Current Situation •  Historical Technology Impacts •  Yield gaps •  Post harvest loss
  14. 14. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Adoption of technology leads has previously improved yields 14 http://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/YieldTrends.html Hybrid corn Improve genetics Nitrogen fertilizer Pesticides Mechanization Transgenic hybrids?
  15. 15. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Current yield trends are insufficient to double production by 2050 Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Solid line – current trend line Dashed – needed to double global crop production by 2050
  16. 16. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Global Yield Gaps Exist Across the Globe 16
  17. 17. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Precision agriculture technology helps us understand variability exists at all geospatial extents <80 80-120 120-160 160- 200 200-240 >240 Fields Rows Individual Plants Variability means loss yield 17 Hendrickson
  18. 18. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Another approach to delivering food and protecting water is to improve the proportion of produced calories which make it to the consumer 18 Lundqvist, J., De Fraiture, C., & Molden, D. (2008). Saving Water : From Field to Fork Curbing Losses and Wastage in the Food Chain. Policy. Global summary of post harvest losses
  19. 19. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Future systems examples •  Sustainable intensification •  Improved water utilization •  Data intensive and precision agriculture
  20. 20. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Sustainable intensification through integrated crop-pest management is one path to yield improvement 20 The Royal Society. (2009). Reaping the benefits : Science and the sustainable intensification of global agriculture. Design (p. 86).
  21. 21. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Adoption of technologies can improve crop production water use efficiency 21 http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/cms/8996/9142.aspx https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/17/PivotIrrigationOnCotton.jpg http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/drought/8d.html
  22. 22. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Increasingly data and decisions on data will be needed for ecologically improved production 22
  23. 23. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Examples of applying systems thinking to agricultural production •  Sugar cane, India •  Biofuels, United States •  Cotton 23
  24. 24. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Value network analysis provides an improved understanding of sugar cane production system Sugar cane value starts to degrade as soon as it is harvested Sugar cane mills have limited production capacity Coordination is required among multiple harvest operations and multiple mills in a region Joshi and Jayant (2012)
  25. 25. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Value network, manual harvesting Diesel & maintenance Driver + cleaner Can go upto INR 700 Money flow Value flow Farmer Labour contractor 1MT Sugarcane Managingthe service INR227 =INR192 +18%commission ~ INR 1900 Transport contractor Harvesting Labourers INR192 Cutting& loading: 1MTcane transport: 1MT cane transport: Field to field Food, drinks, fodder Tips ~ INR 25 (~ INR1000/acre) Society 100 kg Sugar INR 2500 Mill 25
  26. 26. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Diesel & maintenance Driver + cleaner Maintenance Interest Depreciation ~ INR 220 ~ INR 200 ~ INR 18 MillFarmer 1MT Sugarcane ~ INR 1900 Transport contractor transport: 1MT cane Society 100 kg Sugar INR 2500 Harvester / infielder drivers diesel Support labourers ~INR10.5 service ~INR125 ~INR23 Edge cutting, collecting billets 26 Value network, mechanized harvesting
  27. 27. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Tradespace exploration gives insights into how biofuel industry structure might benefit from technology 27 Pareto Front Bernstrom, Johnson, Roark, Schlichtmann (2010)
  28. 28. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Ethanol Gen1 Gen2 28
  29. 29. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Ethanol Dedicated Pipeline Gen 2 Gen1 29
  30. 30. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Butanol Gen1 Gen2 30
  31. 31. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Butanol Using Existing Pipelines 31 Gen 2 Gen1
  32. 32. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Cotton harvesting improvements came from application of lean thinking Optimizing the cotton harvest required a new form of cotton harvester a new interface, the cotton module new machines at the gin to process the module. Module traceability is provided via RFID tag in module wrap and wireless information from the harvester. http://www.stoverequipment.com/docs/2009%20Unwrapper%20Ad.pdf
  33. 33. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Summary Efficient agriculture production is needed to feed the growing global population Technology and its adoption by society has historically led to increased agricultural productivity Agriculture is a set of socio-technical systems that can benefit from systems thinking tools and processes 33
  34. 34. Copyright Hank Roark, 2013, All Rights Reserved Thank you Hank Roark hroark@alum.mit.edu http://www.linkedin.com/in/hankroark 34

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