2. We almost didn’t bother issuing trends for 2014 when
every Tom, Dick and Harry—and Jane, Megan and
Martha—have anointed themselves trendspotters.
And maybe they should, since 2013 is what we’re
calling the Year of the Everyday Trendspotter.
As with cooking, today’s short-order trend observer and
fabricator has more or less replaced the master chef in serving up
bits and bytes of observations about the next. Mommy bloggers
know the parenting horizon, hipsters know the urban landscape,
fashionistas design the blend of black meets blue.
With smart search and up-to-the-second updates, anyone with a
deep interest and a keen eye in their chosen field can gather the
latest, interpret what’s happening and talk trends. Not everyone
who pitches in will hit the jackpot, but the law of averages says
that the new wave of trendspotters will yield some real talent.
Is trendspotting knowing, or just seeing right around the corner?
Who knows. (And does knowing even matter in the age of instant
answers and real-time gratification?)
With all that, what we do know is that this might well be the
last year for an annual roundup. So here goes for what’s on the
horizon.
2
4. TINKERING AND
EXPERIMENTATION
—THE ÜBERTREND
IN A WORLD THAT’S
DYSFUNCTIONAL,
STUCK OR BROKEN
The world has perhaps become too complex and too fast-moving
for complicated top-down solutions to work in government,
corporations or big organizations. Fortunately, other approaches
are emerging. If geeks have taught us anything, it’s that innovation
and solutions come from a whole lot of people tinkering with existing
technology and seeing what they can come up with.
The old and much maligned notion of computer hacking has
morphed into more benign forms of tinkering such as Lifehacker
and HackingWork. This spirit of hacking is the übertrend of our
times as people struggle to deal with a whole stack of problems:
economic woes, political polarization, gridlock social problems and
environmental crises. Whatever the problem, you can be sure that
somewhere out there, some smart people will be tinkering quietly
with it or boldly challenging the status quo.
4
5. GUILT MONEY DOES GOOD—
LOTS OF GOOD—
THROUGH NEW AND INNOVATIVE
PUBLIC-PRIVATE
PARTNERSHIPS
2
5
6. GUILT MONEY DOES GOOD—
LOTS OF GOOD—
THROUGH NEW AND INNOVATIVE
PUBLIC-PRIVATE
PARTNERSHIPS
Fewer and fewer ills and issues will be solved by decrees that
are more driven by ideology than based on practical experience.
Fortunately, the rise of the collaborative society means that
personal monies will be channeled into state schools, city parks
and even federal highways, if that is what it takes to restore our
peace of mind or some semblance of a competitive quality of life.
Some of that money will be motivated by guilt (being part of the
1 percent can be pretty uncomfortable), some will carry the stamp
of ego, some will demonstrate donors’ political principles and some
will flow from good old public spiritedness. But who cares, as long
as the money moves and things start to happen? Some will work,
some won’t. Right now, there are no hard-and-fast rules and no
surefire formulas. Time will tell.
6
7. TO BREAK UP,
OR NOT TO BREAK UP:
THAT IS THE QUESTION
—FOR COUNTRIES
AND STATES IN 2014
3
7
8. TO BREAK UP,
OR NOT TO BREAK UP:
THAT IS THE QUESTION
—FOR COUNTRIES
AND STATES IN 2014
Maybe big nation-states are too cumbersome for today’s fastchanging world. Many were patched together by nation-builders who
appealed to people’s common language, culture and interests. Now
hyperconnectivity not only shrinks time and space among countries, but
it also makes people realize the value of their local ties within countries.
It enables small, cohesive states to make a big, global impact without
needing to be big. Think: Nordic countries, Singapore and Hong Kong.
In Europe, Scotland is preparing for a 2014 referendum on leaving the
U.K. and becoming an independent country, and the U.K. Independence
Party is rooting for its country to leave the EU. There are even
suggestions that London become independent from the U.K. In Spain,
Catalonia wants its own referendum to leave Spain. And the States are
looking increasingly less united as talk of secession sweeps the country,
with separatist movements brewing in Texas, Alaska and Vermont.
8
10. OVER-60s
SEEK NEW ROLES
AS THEY RETHINK
THE MEANING OF LIFE
BEYOND MIDDLE AGE
Back before the economic bust, turning 60 meant getting ready
to leave the world of work and easing through the twilight years,
passing the time with easy-on-the-body leisure activities. It was a
time for winter months in warmer places, hobbies, a little travel and
lots of hanging out with the grandchildren. Now longer life spans
and threadbare retirement plans are forcing a big rethink of what
life can be about into the 60s and beyond.
What can over-60s’ working life be about when jobs are in short
supply for young people looking to get a start in work? What can
over-60s contribute to a world where digital savvy is essential and
life happens at warp speed? There are no ready-made answers, but
there’s a huge demographic with every incentive to invent worthwhile
new roles. Watch as the word senior morphs from an embarrassing
arms-length euphemism to a badge of pride and respect.
10
11. WHO’S NEXT AFTER
POPE FRANCIS MOVES AHEAD
WITH REBRANDING
THE WORLD’S OLDEST
ORGANIZATION?
5
11
12. WHO’S NEXT AFTER
POPE FRANCIS MOVES AHEAD
WITH REBRANDING
THE WORLD’S OLDEST
ORGANIZATION?
It’s tempting to wonder whether Pope Francis took a behind-thescenes doctorate in branding and marketing. Less than a year into
his papacy, he has thoroughly refreshed an ancient brand brought
low by scandal. Out of the blue, he personally calls people for a
chat, he tweets and he thinks differently than his predecessors
about a whole range of key issues. The Pope Francis effect has
scored stellar media coverage but no significant uptick in people
identifying as Catholics—yet.
It’s not just in the Vatican that a new style is emerging. In Iran, new
president Hassan Rouhani celebrated his position with an MTVstyle video that’s apparently inspired by Barack Obama’s 2008
“Yes We Can” classic. Like the pope, Rouhani has decided that
having his own Twitter account is a smart way to connect with the
wider world.
12
14. MINTS MAKE THE
RUNNING AS
BRICS DROP
OFF THE PACE
It has been more than a decade since economist Jim O’Neill
flagged the BRIC countries as the world’s hot investment tip. And
sure enough, the market indices of Brazil, Russia, India and China
grew 154 percent between 2004 and 2012 compared with around
28 percent for the S&P 500. But now the BRICs have lost a lot of
their PR shine. It’s touch and go as to whether Brazil will be ready
in time for the 2014 soccer World Cup. Before then, expect Russia
to face controversy in the runup to the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
India’s economic outlook is getting worse, and China’s economy is
looking shaky.
O’Neill is now tipping a new foursome, which he has dubbed MINT
(Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey), with big, young, dynamic
populations and strong economic prospects. Will the MINTs have
what it takes to freshen up a stale world economy?
14
16. THE WORKPLACE
LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKE
MILLENNIALS
The next normal? Constant feedback and networking, no negative
phrases, and two steps sideways to take three steps forward will
evolve as social business begins upstaging the business practices
of the last decade. Like them or not, the aspirations, values and
style of millennials are shifting from intern oddities to mainstream
normal in the workplace and marketplace.
Watch Stanford’s d.school replace Harvard’s B School as the gottaget-to, and the Summit Series become more Davos than Davos for
young dealmakers. Move over, boomer. Park your sarcasm, Mr. and
Ms. X. The millennials have risen, and they will reshape the world in
their image.
16
18. TALKING ALTERNATIVES
TO CAPITALISM
AS WE KNOW IT
TO DELIVER JOBS
With aftershocks from the 2007-08 economic earthquake still
rippling around the world, a lot of people are losing faith in the letit-rip free-market capitalism that drove the long boom. Where did
all the money go? Where did all the old jobs go? Where will new
jobs come from? Are long years of economic pain inevitable?
Money woes for the majority and gigabucks for the fortunate few
are fueling a rise in economic populism. In floundering France, the
right-wing firebrand Marine Le Pen’s National Front is denouncing
banks and cross-border capitalism, helping to make it the most
popular party in the country. In the United States, left-of-center
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has become a hot political ticket by going
to bat for the middle class and criticizing big corporations and
financial institutions. It looks like an idea with legs. As behavioral
economist Dan Ariely found, Americans want to live in a much
more equal country, but they just don’t realize it.
18
20. GETTING DOWN
AND DIRTY
WITH PREBIOTICS
AND THE MICROBIOME
There’s usually an eager market for miracle cures, especially if they
don’t involve a whole lot of effort or a major change of lifestyle. As
health foods go, it’s hard to beat the appeal of red wine, coffee and
chocolate—all in moderation, of course. One of the most promising
new approaches to all-around health might take a little longer to
gain traction, though, as it’s about cultivating bugs rather than
zapping them.
Scientists are exploring the health effects of the body’s microbiome—
the billions of bacteria, viruses and fungi that live all over the body,
outside and in. Having the right bugs in the digestive tract plays
a crucial role in health. Encouraging them with prebiotics (that’s
pre-, not pro-) and even fecal transplants is shaping up as a solid
approach to tackling a whole range of health problems including
obesity, allergies and autoimmune conditions.
20
22. FORGET
DUMBING DOWN:
TV IS SMARTING UP
WITH LONG-FORM EPICS
Although the Internet is arguably making attention spans shorter and
Hollywood is doubling down on sugar-rush blockbusters for young
audiences, TV is steering hard in the opposite direction with a growing
body of complex long-form dramas. The recently finished fiveseason epic “Breaking Bad” joins an illustrious roster including “The
Sopranos,” “The Wire,” “Mad Men,” “Boardwalk Empire,” “Homeland”
and dark Nordic thrillers such as “The Killing,” out of Denmark.
So much for instant gratification. It takes a lot of commitment and
concentration to follow complex storylines that unfold over dozens
of episodes delivered weekly over months. For impatient long-form
addicts, on-demand streaming services are taking the waiting out
of watching, delivering back-to-back episodes for binge viewing.
With hundreds of hours of compelling drama accumulating in
box sets, on DVRs and on VOD services, the market for consumer
attention is getting even tougher.
22
24. CARS ARE
GETTING SMARTER,
BUT WALKING
WILL BECOME THE
ULTIMATE LUXURY
Cars are a lot smarter than they used to be, that’s for sure. Engine
management technology makes them more efficient, GPS and sat
nav guide your trip, and proximity sensors help you avoid fender
benders on the way. Pretty soon, cars will be even smarter. Google’s
pioneering driverless cars are facing competition from more
established automotive brands such as Volvo and Mercedes-Benz.
But as smart as cars might become, getting around by that mode
of transportation increasingly seems much less smart than it
used to. Americans spend a lot of time in their cars—as much as
18.5 hours a week, according to one estimate—and an average of
38 hours a year stuck in traffic. That’s a lot of sitting that doesn’t do
much for productivity, let alone improve weight or fitness. Living
within walking distance of stores, restaurants and work will emerge
as an all-around quality-of-life luxury.
24
25. mPOS WILL DO
TO CASH AND CARDS
WHAT ONLINE DID TO
BRICKS AND MORTAR
12
25
26. mPOS WILL DO
TO CASH AND CARDS
WHAT ONLINE DID TO
BRICKS AND MORTAR
It has been almost two decades since the end of cash was seriously
mooted. Since then, the world has moved onto the Internet and
embraced online banking and e-commerce. Toting all that bulky
loose change and an awkward wad of bank notes is sooooo last
century, now that we can carry around a convenient wad of credit
cards and debit cards and store cards, plus a little cash just in case.
On second thought, those stacks of plastic cards are looking pretty
last century, too. Check out the Kenyans. They’ve become world
leaders in using cellphones for most of their financial transactions,
from paying taxi drivers to transferring money. Now other countries
are catching on to the idea of the mobile wallet, or mPOS. Over half
of Americans (51 percent) believe that cash registers are just too
old school. Cellphones are already serving as newspapers, music
players, health trackers and destination finders; it’s a short step to
using them for payments.
26
28. THE YIN OF
VIRTUAL LIVING
DRIVING THE YANG
OF HANDS-ON ACTIVITIES
It’s hard to imagine life without ever-present screens. American
adults now spend an average of just over five hours a day with
digital media devices and more than 4.5 hours with TV. In the U.K.,
it’s estimated that people spend over 11 hours a day on screens.
Whether all that screen time is with TVs or digital devices, that’s a
lot of static time when the hands are doing little more than typing,
touching a screen or wielding a remote.
It’s causing health concerns and driving a desire to engage in
hands-on creative activities. Watch the spread of fabrication
laboratories—“fab labs”—giving inventors, innovators, hackers
and DIYers the tools to put bits and bytes to work in the real world
of atoms.
28
30. ARTISANAL EVERYTHING—
COMBINING SAVOIR FAIRE
WITH ENTREPRENEUR
TO CREATE
JOIE DE VIVRE
Sooner or later, the world gets around to adopting the best of French
words and ideas. Despite popular legend and national stereotypes, the
French do have a word for entrepreneur, which is a French word. Now
the hottest Gallic meme is “artisanal,” which translates as “crafted” but
with a certain je ne sais quoi that only a French concept can have. With
its nuances of small-scale, traditional and patient expertise, it’s perfect for
people who value authenticity and terroir over mass-produced blandness.
There’s infinite scope for artisanal products. Anyone who can’t make the
trip to France can check out Brooklyn, “ground zero of the artisanal-food
universe” with its pickle beer and beef jerky. And anyone who can’t get
to Brooklyn or San Francisco or Omaha or Portland can check out the
possibilities for doing it themselves. Amazon has thousands of books
on everything from baking bread and making cheese and chocolate to
welding, making jewelry and building timber frames. And in case you
were wondering, there’s nothing on artisanal trendspotting—yet.
30
31. @havasprus
200 Madison Ave.
New York, NY 10016
Marian Salzman, CEO
E: marian.salzman@havasww.com
C: +1 646-361-1837
T: @mariansalzman
