Yaser Abu Nasr's presentation at the Second Regional Summer School in Amman, October 2012.

1. The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning
The MENA Context
Yaser Abunnasr
American University of Beirut
University of Massachusetts Amherst
October 03, 2012
Second Regional Summer School
September 30 to October 04, 2012
Amman, Jordan

2. Introduction
The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning
The MENA Context
• Part 1:Introduction to Climate Change,
Livelihoods & urban places
• Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
• Part 3: Climate Adaptation in the MENA Region
• Concluding remarks
• Questions and Discussion

3. Introduction
Livelihood Resources

4. Introduction
Livelihood Resources Urban Places
 The physical dimension of livelihood resources
• Places for: living, work, recreation, governance &
commerce supported by transportation and utility networks
 What kind of places are we creating?
 How are we developing our cities?
• Response to and impact on
 Where are we developing our cities?
• Vulnerable locations
 Population growth & rural‐urban migration
 Transformation of pre‐development landscape
 Contributing to and recipient of climate change impacts
 Urban micro‐climate

5. Introduction
The urban micro‐climate
 Altered Surfaces
 Urban Island Heat Effect
 2° C to 5° C warmer air
 Causes:
• Weather
• Geographic location
• Time of day and season
• city form
• city functions
 Impacts:
• Human comfort
• Energy use
• Air pollution
• Water use
• Biological activity

6. Introduction
Climate Change
 Assumption that climate
change will happen
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC per yr.)
 Historic Emissions
 Increasing emissions
 Probable global 4° C warmer
climate by end of century
 Augments existing problems
 Uncertainty Time (Yr.)
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
International Energy Agency
 Compounded effect on A1B A1T B1
A1FI A2 B2
micro‐climates

7. Introduction
Urban Places as Contributors to climate change
World green house emissions flow chart (world Resources Institute, 2005) Direct Contribution
by cities
10.5%
10.2%
06.3%
27.0%
In addition:
indirect
contribution
from other
sectors:
landfills,
building
materials, food
transport, etc.

8. Introduction
Urban Places as Recipients of Climate Change Impacts
 General Climate change
impacts
• Rising Sea level
• Erratic precipitation
regimes
• Increased temperatures
• Droughts
 Exasperating vulnerable
communities problems: access
to water, sanitation, etc.
 Probable 4° C warmer climate
by end of century
 Augments existing problems
 Precursor for immediate
action

9. Introduction
Mitigation in urban places Adaptation in urban places
 Reduce sources of emissions  Adjust systems to new
= not place specific conditions
 Global Scale  Local Scale
 Denser cities  A new condition: Probable
• Energy efficiency 4°C warmer climate by end of
century
• Reduce driving = public
transport  Augments existing problems
• Green Infrastructure as CO2  Precursor for immediate
sink action
• Vegetate surfaces  Context of cities
• Technological solutions ‐  Should be done in a
reduce energy use, efficient sustainable manner:
cars, local renewable environmentally sensitive
energies and inclusive

10. Introduction
Where is adaptation as a planning process, acceptance, and action?
 Still lags behind mitigation
 Immediate investment
 Expensive
 Requires acceptance by communities, investments, justifications
 Requires buy‐in by politicians to act
 Urban vulnerable populations: the poor, least access, no
services, etc.
 Can begin today, everyone can contribute
 While small actions are important what do they sum up to?
• Need larger vision, targets, and performance benchmarks

11. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Conventional land use & urban planning
 Tabula Rasa Approach: Little
consideration to environment,
climate, and local characteristics
 Basis: Transport economically
based
 Zoning: Single use per zone
 Data for planning: predictable &
certain
 Procedural process: 1)Recognition
of need 2)Identify objectives
3)Research 4)plan formulation
5)plan implementation 6)monitor,
review and revise.
 Conditions: static and predictive
 Planning time horizons: 5, 10, 20
years maximum

12. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Adaptation Planning Process (As recommended by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences)
1) Identify current & future climate 4) Identify opportunities for co‐benefits
changes relevant to the system and synergies across sectors
2) Assess vulnerabilities and risk to the 5) Implement adaptation options
system 6) Monitor and reevaluate
3) Develop an adaptation strategy using implementation adaptation options
risk‐based prioritization schemes

13. Climate Science & urban places
Adaptation Policy Development (Boswell, Greve, & Seale, 2012)
Local Vulnerability
Assessment
Adaptation Plan
Development and
Implementation

14. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Characteristics of the adaptation planning process
 Based on science, science as a starting point
 Uncertainty as a core value for work
 Planning usually defines an end state, in adaptation planning
we may define a possible state
 Uncertainty of information
 Adaptive process: Flexibility, Iterative process
 Continuous monitoring
 long planning period, extends to 100 years
 Monitoring: Continuous update
 Indicator based rather than time based planning
 Multi‐ jurisdictional and multi‐scalar.
 Unclear financing possibilities

15. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Scenarios of future climatic projections

16. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Multi‐jurisdictional and Multi‐geographic scales (Abunnasr & Hamin, 2012)

17. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Multi‐geographic scales (City of Copenhagen)

18. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Vulnerability Assessment, risk, and Exposure (City of Clarence, Australia)
 Risk: from what
 Exposure : location based
 Existing adaptation capacity
 Vulnerability Assessment: including climate projections

19. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Vulnerable populations
 The urban poor: depends on how we measure: income, access
to food and water, health, gender, etc.
 IPCC vulnerable communities:
• Least able to avoid direct and indirect impacts
• Likely to be most effected
• Least able to cope health, loss of income, etc.
 Direct impacts: flooding, direct damage of dwellings, death.
 Indirect Impacts: less food, lower nutrition, access to even less
water, loss of income
 Location of poor agglomerations within cities
• Riskiest urban environments: low lying areas, flood plains,
unstable slopes = most risk from climate change
• Compounded effect of human congestion

20. Part 2: Adaptation Planning Process
Adaptation measures
Less cost
Mainstreaming No‐ regrets measures, delivering benefits that
exceed their costs, whatever the extent of
Intensity & cost of measures
climate change
Low‐regrets measures are low cost, and have
potentially large benefits under climate
change
Win‐Win measures contribute to climate
adaptation and also deliver other benefits
Flexible measures are useful for dealing with
uncertainties in the extent of longer‐term
climate change
One time, large scale measures/investments,
in response to large scale risks beyond
More cost
Transformative projections, immediate and targeted benefits

21. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
How much adaptation has been done?
SIMPLY NOTHING: No concerted effort; No Political will at
national and regional levels.
 One of the most vulnerable areas to climate change
 Rising sea levels: 30‐100cm by 2100, effect 1.3% of
population
 Reduced precipitation by at least 20%
 increasing temperatures: +2⁰C next 20years; +4⁰C by 2100
 Biomass shift by 300‐500km if +1.5⁰C
 Resulting in
• Dust storms, floods& droughts
• Reduction of water availability and regeneration
• Reduction in food production and supply by 40% (2080)
• Loss of biodiversity
• Worsening of human health
• Increase in conflicts over resources

22. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Population Growth and urbanization
 One of highest population growths:
• Population in 2005: 320 Million, 56% urban
• Projected population by 2050: 598 million, 66% urban
 Urban poor in 2005 is 30% of total population
 Slum growth from 1990‐2011 = 3.5% average
 Rural urban migration
 Urbanization
• Expanding cities
• Gentrification
• Loss of productive land
• Loss of water resources
• Inequity in resource distribution

23. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Urbanization

24. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo
 Increasing population and
poor
 Heavy Rains
 Low lying shoreline and
land
 Old building stock
 Location of slums and poor
in risk prone areas

25. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

26. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

27. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo (RISK MAPPING)

28. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

29. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

30. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

31. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

32. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

33. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

34. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

35. Part 3: Climate Change Adaptation in the MENA Region
Alexandria, Cairo

36. Concluding Remarks
Adaptation Take away message
 Is a local initiative
 requires a multidisciplinary and flexible approaches
 Across multiple jurisdictional entities.
 Is spatially sensitive but not exclusive
 Can begin immediately with “no‐regrets” measures
 Intensified to transform livelihoods into sustainable
and resilient assets.
 Comprehensive and incremental

37. Concluding Remarks
Points to think about
 Doom and gloom approach OR an opportunity to improve
places we live
 Livable cities: greening, walkable, energy efficiency,
performance based etc.
 Cities as equitable places
 Plan long term, not dogmatic, but flexible to allow for change
during the process = emerging results rather than
prescriptive.
 How do we begin to make adaptation accepted, acted upon
and transform it into realizable projects within the MENA
region?
 How do we begin to become modest & move from paper to
action?

38. The Spatial Dimension of Adaptation Planning
The MENA Context
Yaser Abunnasr
American University of Beirut
University of Massachusetts Amherst
ya20@aub.edu.lb & yabunnas@gmail.com
Second Regional Summer School
September 30 to October 04, 2012
Amman, Jordan