Will the economy experience a soft economic landing as inflation decreases or will the change to inflation be more than expected? Is a hard economic landing still possible?

1. Inflation’s Next Peaks:
Prepare for the Future
By Stress-Testing Different Scenarios Featuring Mike Ashton, CFA
Weighing the Risks with Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™

2. 2
Inflations Next Peaks
GOOD
S+P 500
4485
+15%
Inflation falls to 3% or lower
by mid-year
Fed pivots as expected
GSCI
Commodities
Index TR
4025
+15%
Inflation Falls
More Than
Expected
10Y
3.00%
-40 bps
BASELINE
S+P 500
3900
FLAT
Soft economic landing
Inflation falls toward 4%
by mid-year
GSCI
Commodities
Index TR
3765
+7.5%
10Y
3.75%
+35 bps
UGLY
S+P 500
3120
-20%
Inflation higher than expected
Recession
GSCI
Commodities
Index TR
3500
FLAT
10Y
4.50%
+110 bps
Inflation Falls;
Soft Economic
Landing
Inflation Remains
High; Hard
Landing

3. 3
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