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[Nielsen] Quarter by numbers ASIA PACIFIC Q2/2017
- 1. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
QUARTER BY
NUMBERS
Q2 2017
ASIA PACIFIC
- 2. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
CONTENTS
THE BIG PICTURE
Message from Laura McCullough…………...…………………………………….03
ASIA AT A GLANCE
Key economic drivers……………………………………………………………….05
Looking through Asia Pacific FMCG lens……………………..………………….07
COUNTRY SNAPSHOT
Australia………………………………………....………………………….………..08
China……………………………………….…………………………………………11
Hong Kong....………………………………………………………………………...14
India……………………...…………………………………………………………...17
Indonesia…………….………………………………………………...…….………20
Japan……………….………………………………………………………………...23
Malaysia……………………………………………………………………………...26
Myanmar………...…………………………………………………………………...29
New Zealand....……………………………………………………………………...32
Philippines…………………………….…………………………...………………...35
Singapore……………………………..……………………………………………...38
South Korea………………………..………………………………………...……...41
Taiwan………………………..………………………………………………...........44
Thailand………………………..……………………………………………….........47
Vietnam………………………..…………………………………...…………..........50
IN THE INDUSTRY
Who’s driving FMCG?………………………………………….……………….…53
- 3. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
MESSAGE FROM LAURA MCCULLOUGH
Pockets of Growth seems to be a recurring theme amidst an era of economic
change, modest growth and evolving consumption patterns. Across the board,
growth in FMCG is getting harder to achieve but if you scratch below the
surface, there are many examples of companies, segments and channels
performing strongly.
Last quarter, we focussed on the huge potential e-commerce has in this region
where internet connectivity and consumer adoption continues to expand at rapid
rates. This quarter, we focus on those companies that are managing to achieve
growth ahead of their peers.
Without a doubt, winners can be found across all sectors and markets - big and
small, global, regional. But where we see continued and sustained growth is
among local players in the region. As world markets hunker down under a guise
of protectionism, the “Go Local” song has never been stronger. The prestige that
global brands once held in developing markets appears to be losing some gloss
as local brands compete on quality, often with more competitive pricing and
more targeted marketing.
Nielsen conducted an analysis of the Top 100 FMCG players across Asia Pacific
in 2016 representing approximately 85% of FMCG.
In 2016, local players held the “lions share” of the FMCG market in Asia Pacific
at 53% while global and regional players account for 39% and 9% share
respectively. The real story though comes from who is driving the growth of
FMCG and here local players success is resounding, accounting for 73% of
FMCG growth over the last 3 years.
While the strength of local players does differ by market, their impact on FMCG
growth is incredibly consistent.
Go to our “In the Industry” section to see how players are performing across
individual markets
Laura McCullough
FMCG Leader,
Growth and
Emerging Markets
THE BIG PICTURE
38
16
9
12
53
73
% SHARE OF FMCG % OF FMCG GROWTH
Who’s Finding Growth In Asia Pacific
Global, Regional or Local Player?
LOCAL
REGIONAL
GLOBAL
Source: Nielsen Retail Analysis – Total FMCG* Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs 2014
- 4. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
THE BIG PICTURE
Only a few years back, multinationals dominated modern trade while locals’ strength lay in
traditional retail formats. This too is changing with local players driving 90% of FMCG growth
in Modern Trade and 63% in Traditional Trade.
Other traditional stereotypes are also being smashed. Food and Beverage categories have
long been hailed as the stronghold of local players, given their local expertise for consumer
tastes and preferences. But again, local companies are moving in and taking global ground in
household and personal categories as well. It is in beverage categories that global
companies are driving most growth today.
So what are local players doing amidst these challenging times?
In general, local players are offering increasingly better quality products at competitive
pricing. They often have strong on the ground presence and a sustained distribution network
that ensures their products are readily available to all consumers – not just those in the top
tier cities but in secondary cities and regions where consumption is accelerating. In many
markets like India, governments are promoting the “Made in India” theme, which drives
consumers’ emotional connection and loyalty to local brands but also local brands
are benefiting from a deeper understanding of local regulations and taxation incentives that
these schemes provide.
Connecting consumers to your brand values and brand story is critical to success and longer-
term loyalty. In a number of markets, local brands are capitalising on a revived “local pride”,
leveraging a brand’s heritage in the way they share their story with consumers often via
social media. “Focus” is also a strength of local brands - be it on a specific consumer group
or specific region to ensure they maximise their impact for the resources they have available.
Big or small – locals are winning the growth race! It’s up to global players to take stock, dig
deep and understand the nuances by market and connect with local consumers.
Check out our latest video on “Asia’s Pockets of Growth” for more insights.
For more insights on Who’s driving growth?
1. Reach out to your local Nielsen representative
2. Visit Nielsen’s Blog: 3 Things Big FMCG Marketers need to do to win again
3. Visit Campaign Asia’s & Nielsen’s Top 1000 brands with exclusive interviews on how global versus local
players are winning in markets. Links available in “In the Industry” section.
- 5. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
ASIA AT A GLANCE
Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index reflects Q2 2017
ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS
AROUND ASIA PACIFIC
The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job
prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer
confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of
optimism and pessimism, respectively.
GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q2 2017 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Consumer confidence soars across many Asian markets
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
GDP (%
change
pa)
Inflation
Q2
2017
Q2 2017
vs Q4
2016
2.8 2.0 KOREA 63 20
1.4 0.3 JAPAN 87 13
5.8 4.0 MALAYSIA 94 10
3.8 2.0 HONGKONG 102 9
2.1 0.6 TAIWAN 79 6
6.2 3.3 VIETNAM 117 5
6.7 1.5 CHINA 112 4
2.9 0.8 SINGAPORE 89 4
5.0 4.7 INDONESIA 121 1
0.0 1.7 NEW ZEALAND 103 0
Q2
2017
Q2 2017
vs Q4
2016
GDP (%
change
pa)
Inflation
INDIA 128 -7 7.0 2.4
THAILAND 107 -3 3.7 0.1
PHILIPPINES 130 -2 6.4 3.1
AUSTRALIA 89 -2 1.8 2.3
- 6. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Putting into savings Holidays / vacations
0
10
20
30
40
50
The economy Health
In line with consumer optimism, fewer consumers are concerned
about the economy, but increasingly worried about health
CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN
ASIA PACIFIC
WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?
WHO’S SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?
Type of concern
After living expenses, how is spare money spent
Bars reflect Q2 2017. Table shows comparison to Q4 2016
ASIA AT A GLANCE
APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
The economy -5 -1 -4 -6 4 -7 -6 -3 -8 -1 -4 -9 -2 -3 0
Health 2 -4 3 3 2 6 -2 2 1 -2 3 2 1 2 -4
APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
Putting into savings 3 -2 7 1 -5 2 3 3 4 3 -6 1 6 -2 -13
Holidays / vacations 8 0 14 -3 -2 2 7 5 10 -2 3 -3 10 -4 3
Bars reflect Q2 2017. Table shows comparison to Q4 2016
- 7. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
LOOKING THROUGH ASIA PACIFIC'S
FMCG LENS
FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS
Weighted average – APAC – 14 countries
WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?
Avg. volume growth decreasing versus last period
Avg. volume growth increasing versus last period
Average volume growth Q1 2017 & Q2 2017
2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3%
1.3%
2.1% 2.1%
0.7%
2.3%
0.5%
1.9%
2.1%
1.5%
3.4%
3.6%
4.3%
4.6%
3.0%
4.5%
2.4%
3.6%
4.1%
3.8%
5.7%
MAT YA MAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Growth
INDIA (+11.7%)
COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND SINCE SAME 6 MONTH PERIOD YEAR AGO
AVERAGE Q1’17 & Q2’17 vs Q1’17 & Q2’16
INDONESIA (+0.6%)
VIETNAM (+5.2%)
HONGKONG (-3.8%)
THAILAND(-6.3%)
CHINA (+1.4%)
AUSTRALIA (+0.2%)
TAIWAN (+1.7%)
SINGAPORE (-2.9%)
KOREA (+2%)
PHILIPPINES (+2.4%)
NEW ZEALAND(+2.7%)
MALAYSIA (-4.1%)
JAPAN (-1.6%)
- 8. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
AUSTRALIA SNAPSHOT
Justin Sargent
Managing Director,
Pacific
Australia’s GDP is up slightly at 1.8%, but propped up by inflation at 2.3%. In Q2 2017,
Australia’s consumer confidence score was 89 , slightly down below the level at 91 where it
had sat for most of 2016 and well below the Asia Pacific average of 114. Australians are
still relatively pessimistic about job prospects with 60% saying conditions are not so
good/bad over the next 12 months - almost double the Asia Pacific average (31%). Just
over half (51%) of Australian consumers say that the state of their personal finances are
good/excellent - up two points versus Q2 2016; while just 42% say it is a good/excellent
time to buy the things they want and need.
Australian consumers’ top three concerns underpins our pessimistic outlook overall - rising
utility bills, the economy and terrorism rank the highest. More than half of Australian
consumers intend to allocate any spare cash they have to topping up their savings (44%),
holidays (31%) and paying off their debts (25%). Environmental factors such as record
under-employment, low wage inflation, rising utilities prices as well as the increased
strength of private label and discounters has affected grocery channel growth.
Value growth in the FMCG sector is flat in Q2 and down quite dramatically versus previous
quarters. The annual picture, however, is much more stable with value growth at 2.8% - in
line with 2016.
An increasingly diverse population is creating real opportunities for retailers and
manufacturers. The latest census results highlight those born abroad continues to rise, but
the mix is changing. The number of Australians born in China and India has gone from
2.9% in 2011 to 4.1% in 2016. Asian-born Australians are now projected to contribute $6.6
billion to the Grocery market by 2020. The big challenge for the major retailers will be to
offer this group a ‘one stop shop’ - something that currently is not being offered in its
entirety. Asian-born consumers are growing in importance and engaging with them requires
a change in mindset that very few Australian manufacturers have embraced to date. For
example, Asians’ food preferences are very different. They devote almost a third (32%) of
their grocery spend to fresh food (compared to Australian-born consumers who allocate
26% of their spend on fresh); and they also have a strong skew toward seafood, fresh herbs
and healthier food options in general. In a recent survey, 75% of Asian-Australians said
that they would shop in more mainstream retailers if more international products were
stocked. Genuine strategies that put the consumer first will ensure that retailers and
manufacturers alike will win with this group.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
2.5
3.1
1.8
2.4
1.7 1.8
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.3
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016Q4 2016 Q1 2017Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114
89 91 91 91 89
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP AU
- 9. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
13.4%
2.6%
Online
Bricks and Mortar
TOTAL AUSTRALIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
0.6% 1.0%
1.0% 0.1% 0.8%
0.1%
1.0%
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
2.2% 1.8%
2.7%
3.3%
3.5%
-0.1%
3.4%
3.5%
1.1%
-0.6%
2.8% 2.8%
3.7%
3.4%
4.4%
0.0%
4.4%
4.1%
2.3%
0.2%
MAT YA MAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
3%
97%
Consumer cautiousness impacting growth along with retailers
continued focus by retailers on value proposition
Online sector continues to grow with excitement surrounding
Amazon’s imminent launch
- 10. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
2.8%
4.4%
4.7%
2.5%
0.4%
1.5%
3.6%
4.5%
0.7%
7.0%
-4.1%
Total FMCG Frozen Food Health & Beauty exc med equip/acc
Chilled Foods Household exc vacuum cleaner bag Dry Grocery
Pet Supplies Confectionery Beverages
Fresh Produce Other
2.8%
4.6%
1.2%
-1.1%
3.0%
6.0%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
Smaller players continue to grow ahead of market tapping into niche
consumer needs
Despite subdued growth, some categories shine particularly in Health and
Wellness such as Fresh Produce
TOTAL AUSTRALIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL AUSTRALIA – MANUFACTURER VALUE GROWTH % ACROSS FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
6%
8%
26%
5%19%
4%
6%
7%
14%
5%
40%
11%
20%
22%
7%
- 11. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
CHINA SNAPSHOT
Vishal Bali
Managing Director,
China
China’s GDP has remained stable over the past two years achieving GDP growth between
6.5% and 7% and reaching 6.7% in Q2 2017 due to a high contribution of domestic
consumption and better performance of imports and exports. Economic restructuring,
including setting up the new Xiong’an Economic Zone and the “One Belt One Road”
summit has encouraged cross country economic cooperation that will further drive healthy
economic growth. Inflation remains low and steady due to the Chinese government’s effort
in reducing financial leverage with neutral and prudent monetary policies.
Consumer confidence hit a two year high in Q2 2017 at 112 with an increase across all
three components, but led by confidence in personal finance from consumers in low tier
cities. The higher disposable income growth and lower cost of living e.g. real estate costs
compared with upper tier cities, boosted the financial confidence of consumers in low tier
cities which will drive future consumption growth. While financial confidence has
improved, increasing environmental problems in China has led to health becoming the
biggest concern of Chinese consumers overtaking income security for the first time since
2009. This represents a great opportunity for FMCG players in health-related industries and
products.
In line with promising economic growth and rising consumer confidence, China’s FMCG
market registered 11% growth in Q2 2017 (online and offline), its highest growth in the
past 2 years. Premiumization is a major factor driving growth with premium products those
with a price 20% higher than the category average) contributing over 50% of total value
sales within the top 30 FMCG categories in China. E-commerce is still the most powerful
engine for FMCG growth in China driven by heavy promotional activity. JD.COM’s “618”
promotion led the mid-year online sales boost, with reported turnover of RMB 119.9 billion.
Additionally, specialty and small format channels are also growing quickly due to
consumers’ rising demand for convenience.
Premiumization continues to be the key opportunity within China’s FMCG market. The
challenge however is the “degree” of premiumization across different categories and
geographies. As consumers become increasingly sophisticated, manufacturers must
deliver real benefits and high quality product experiences in order to justify and charge a
premium. The other emerging challenge for manufacturers and retailers in China is the
growing trend to individualization. Chinese consumers, in particular younger generations
are looking for niche and unique products, instead of mass market, big brands. Leveraging
online consumer data to enable precision marketing will be the key for manufacturers
looking to capture the individual needs of the consumer.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.7
2.2 2.2 1.8
2.3
1.4 1.5
Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016 Q1 2017Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108
107
109
111
114
105
106 106
108
112
Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 Q42016 Q22017
AP CN
- 12. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL CHINA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG growth hit a 2 year high in Q2 2017, with increased purchase
willingness from consumers, based on job security and financial confidence.
Online continues its rapid growth, driven by promotion and improvements
in technology. Specialty retail and convenience formats are catering to
consumers’ demand for product expertise and convenience
Offline
FMCG
Specialty
and
Online
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS OFFLINE
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
3.3%
3.1%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
2.8%
2.6%
3.1%
3.2%
3.0%
-2.6%
0.2%
-1.1%
-5.1%
-1.4%
-2.8%
-0.2%
-1.4%
0.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3.3%
2.3%
-1.7%
2.0%
0.0%
2.4%
1.7%
4.0%
5.2%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
59%
32%
9% 2.9%
3.2%
7.0%
9.7%
31.2%
Nat CityTgTs
H/S'mkt/CVS Total
Nat CityTgTs
Grocery Total
Other
Baby Stores
Online
- 13. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
3.3%
4.5%
6.5%
-0.2%
-0.8%
6.7%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
3.3%
-0.4%
6.5%
6.7%
2.5%
-4.2%
-0.7%
0.0%
5.1%
2.2%
-1.8%
Total FMCG Impulse Food Beverage Diary Food Other Food Baby Care
Household Pad/Tissue Personal Care Insect Control Hair Products
The market continues to become more fragmented, as smaller players
perform strongly by meeting a growing diversity of consumer needs.
Health and premium trends are the driving force behind Food and
Beverage growth.
TOTAL CHINA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE - OFFLINE
TOTAL CHINA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE – FMCG OFFLINE
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
11%
21%
18%14%
3%
6%
7%
14%
1%4%
20%
10%
20%19%
30%
Dairy Food
- 14. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
HONG KONG SNAPSHOT
Angel Young
Managing Director,
Hong Kong and
Macau
The Hong Kong economy has seen recovered growth in 2017 with GDP at +3.8%
versus year ago buoyed by rising local spending, stable inflation levels and the return
of the economy’s growth engine – mainland tourists. While mainland tourist numbers
had been in decline in 2016, the year to June 2017 saw mainland arrivals increase by
+2.3% versus year ago facilitating a revival in the retail sector especially in premium
segments like luxury goods and department stores.
Consumer confidence echoed this optimism with a rebound in Q2 2017, continuing
the upward trend from Q3 2016. Positive sentiments towards job prospects were the
key driver to overall confidence as the local economy sustained low levels of
unemployment in recent quarters along with consumers’ strong appetite to invest and
spend.
While the FMCG market still saw negative value performance in the year to Q2 2017,
the trend has been improving quarter on quarter. Consumption was still down driven
by categories like Infant Milk Formula and Snacks yet strong “premiumization” or
trading up to higher price tiers across many Food and Non Food categories buoyed
the numbers. Hong Kong consumers are prepared to spend on premium innovation
especially in Grooming and Skin care categories. In Food and Beverage categories, a
preference towards healthier options e.g. low sugar, highlight Hong Kong consumers’
changing mindset to healthier choices, given health has become their number one
concern this quarter.
With improving economic performance and consumer sentiment in 2017, it is
anticipated consumers will have a broader range of choices available in how they
spend. It is critical for businesses to continue to invest in the right mix of innovations
and offerings to address both local consumer and mainland visitors’ needs. As
consumers become more digitally savvy, online channels will become the best route
to reach and engage them. As shoppers from Mainland China will remain a key
priority group in Hong Kong, it is important to understand and anticipate how their
spending choices will evolve. Their purpose of visiting Hong Kong is moving beyond
shopping into local experiences, across food and entertainment options.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
1.0
1.8
2.0
3.2
4.3
3.8
2.8
2.6
3.1
1.2
0.5
2.0
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114
88 87
95 93
102
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP HK
- 15. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL HONG KONG – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG categories esp. Beverages and Personal Care have seen
strong growth via premiumization
Chain retailers are driving innovation and the development of
the premium segment to drive growth opportunities
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
20%
80%
-9.0%
0.9%
Traditional Trade Modern Trade
-0.4%
1.4% 0.2% -0.2%
-2.5%
0.0%
0.3%
0.8%
1.4% 1.9%
0.1%
-2.6%
-0.7% -0.3%
1.5%
0.9%
1.1%
-2.4%
-4.3%
-3.4%
-0.3%
-1.2%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-1.0%
0.9%
1.3%
-1.7%
-3.0%
-1.5%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
- 16. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
-1.2%
3.2%
-14.2%
1.2%
5.3%
0.0%
1.2%
-5.9%
-1.7%
5.5%
-1.6%
-2.7%
Total FMCG Alcoholic Drinks Baby Product
Cigarette Dairy, Bakery & Frozen Household Products
Non-Alcoholic Drinks Non-pre Medicine/Health Product Packaged Food
Personal Care Pet Food Snacks & Conf
-1.2%
-2.1%
-3.7%
4.8%
6.0%
-3.9%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
The top 10 manufacturers continue to feel the impact of tourist declines
especially in categories like Infant Milk Formula. Smaller and mid-sized
brands continue to challenge multi-category multinationals
Premiumization was the key driver behind Cigarettes, Frozen Food and
Personal care categories’ performance.
TOTAL HONG KONG – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL HONG KONG – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
5%
12%
15%
10%
6%11%
8%
10%
14%
0%
8%
11%
6%
13%
15%
55%
- 17. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
INDIA SNAPSHOT
Prasun Basu
President,
South Asia
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/India Central Statistics Office
108 107 109 111 114
134 128 133 136
128
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP IN
India has been straddling tectonic shifts since November last year. Demonetization and the
implementation of the GST (Goods & Services Tax) followed in quick succession to
revolutionize trade practices. GST is the biggest tax reform that India has undertaken in
recent years. Though fairly well-prepared, a certain amount of disruption is likely as
businesses adapt to the implications. Nielsen conducted a survey in June 2017 which
found two out every three FMCG retailers were aware of GST, but low awareness was
more prevalent in rural markets. Though one in four retailers were optimistic, over 50% of
retailers were uncertain about the impact of GST on their business.
GST adoption in India has been relatively smooth compared to other markets. In other
countries, implementation of such a tax reform led to high inflation and slowdown in
growth. In India, administrators have initiated anti-profiteering rules to keep a close tab on
price increase. So far, inflation has largely been under control but it should be closely
observed over the next few quarters.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) score for India in Q2 2017 was 128 , 8 points lower
than Q4 2016, where India was highest at 136. This short-term anxiety is likely to be due
to the major events such as demonetization and the rollout of the GST creating a larger
formal economy that will lead to re-defining of jobs and re-skilling as businesses and
business processes restructure themselves. Consumer perceptions on prices due to the
GST tax implementation could also be the cause for consumers exercising caution around
spending. While India’s confidence dropped from the top spot globally, at rank two on the
index, the country continues to reflect high confidence levels that it has held for the past
three years.
Government expenditure is also aiding overall growth. Due to the early presentation of the
union budget this year, non-interest government expenditure expanded by 26% in Q2
2017. After poor rains for two consecutive years in 2014 and 2015, monsoon was normal in
2016 and 2017 is expected to be close to normal. As a result, advanced estimates for crop
yields this year is positive. The positive monsoon season and strong agricultural yields has
lined consumers’ pockets resulting in strong FMCG performance in Q2 2017.
Overall, the economic outlook for the country seems healthy with controlled inflation,
upward GDP estimates for 2017-’18, and healthy agricultural production. FMCG
manufacturers need to be vigilant about the GST era. As the tax bands change, there is a
lot of room to fine-tune price-promo combinations of products to develop a winning edge. In
the short term, companies also need to support products to maintain stock pressure in the
trade as retailers might not have the expertise to harness the change.
- 18. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL INDIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Double-digit FMCG growth on the back of healthy economic
indicators
With high growth in lower town classes, traditional trade
continues to grow faster than modern trade
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
2.3% 3.6% 2.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 3.1% 4.0% 4.6%
4.9%
8.9%
7.0%
5.5% 6.0%
1.6% 4.6%
8.0%
8.2%
15.3%
7.2%
12.5%
9.6%
7.4% 8.0%
3.7%
6.6%
11.1%
12.2%
19.9%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
92%
8%
12.8%
8.8%
Traditional Trade Modern Trade
- 19. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
Top 6-10 CPG manufacturers growing fastest on account of
strengthening distribution
High growth in staples as branded offerings improve. Revival of
noodles category is driving growth of the Impulse segment.
TOTAL INDIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL INDIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
23%
11%
20%
15%
31%
12.5%
10.3%
18.0%
12.2%
16.8%
10.5%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
19%
14%
22%
16%
23%
7% 12.5%
13.6%
11.2%
15.3%
12.0%
9.9%
13.2%
Total FMCG Staple Other Food Impluse Food Home Care Personal Care OTCImpulse Food
- 20. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
INDONESIA SNAPSHOT
Agus Nurudin
Managing Director,
Indonesia
Indonesian economy remains stable with GDP at 5% annual growth for Q2 2017. It continues to
be perceived as a market of opportunity for many companies looking to invest. Private
consumption is underpinning performance and with infrastructure spending rising, improved
accessibility will continue to help drive consumer demand. While inflation has been running at
lower levels, it has increased in the last quarter due to the festive period (higher food demand)
and increases in electricity expenditure related to new government regulations.
Consumer confidence remains high and Indonesia continues to be one of the top 3 most
optimistic countries in the region. However despite consumer optimism, consumers are shifting
their spending priorities as income increases are not keeping up with price increases. In the
last 6 months, it appears FMCG value and consumption has slowed due to a shift in consumer
spending behaviour. Indonesian consumers focus on three main spending areas :
1.Food necessities covering rice, fruit vegetables, meat and poultry; 2.Education considered
necessary spending for future; 3.Leisure and Lifestyle – e.g. vacation, fashion, and durables
including smartphones. Different socio-economic groups have different priorities. Middle
income groups seem able to adjust their spending and still increase consumption, while upper
income groups try to rationalize spending by seeking more promotions and switching to more
affordable brands Lower income groups (46% of population) have limited spending leverage
and tend to sacrifice volume consumption including FMCG.
In this environment, small format outlets e.g. mini-markets and traditional trade have an
advantage as consumers reduce planned, often larger shopping trips in favour of smaller top-
up shopping. E-commerce in Indonesia, while still below 2% is seeing significant growth over
the past year mostly driven by promotion buying.
Looking forward, companies need to address the stratification of consumer needs in Indonesia.
While consumers seek value, it is critical to manage promotion strategies carefully to avoid
promotional dependence. Given the size and importance of the lower income group, companies
must consider pricing strategies from the full portfolio to ensure an affordable entry level tier for
this consumer group. Finally, consumers are looking for excitement, so it is critical to drive the
emotional connection with brands through consumer events and product innovation.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
5.0
5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0
4.3
3.4
3.1
3.3
3.7
4.7
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107
109
111
114
117
119
122
120 121
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP ID
- 21. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL INDONESIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG growth has been decelerating due to shifting priorities to
the non-FMCG sector such as education, leisure and lifestyle
Modern trade is growing slightly faster than traditional trade
driven by small format channel increasing store numbers
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
5.9%
3.5%
7.6%
6.5%
5.1%
4.2% 4.1% 3.7%
3.3% 2.7%
4.7%
1.0%
3.6%
4.6%
6.2%
5.0%
2.7%
0.5%
0.6% 0.7%
10.7%
4.6%
11.2% 11.1% 11.3%
9.2%
6.7%
4.2% 4.0%
3.4%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
58%
42%
4.0%
5.4%
General Trade Modern Trade
- 22. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
Mid-size manufacturers, specially local players are growing much
faster than others due to their ability to manage price increases
Food categories show stronger growth due while all socio-
economic groups focusing spend on necessity categories
TOTAL INDONESIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL INDONESIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
18%
8%
35%
35%
3%
4.6%
4.1%
2.1%
7.1%
3.1%
2.9%
Total FMCG Personal Care Home Care Foods Beverage Pharma
26%
13%
24%
24%
14% 4.6%
2.9%
1.3%
9.7%
3.5%
4.6%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 23. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
JAPAN SNAPSHOT
Japan’s domestic economy continues its moderate recovery with GDP growth positive at
+1% for six quarters in a row as a result of solid consumer spending and corporate
investments in offices and factories. Unemployment remains low and real consumer
spending increased in June for the first time in 16 months.
Consumers are showing increasing optimism with the consumer confidence index at 87
points, an increase of 14 points since Q4 2016 - the highest over the past two years. This
increase was across the 3 key indicators of job prospects, state of personal finances and the
right time to buy the things they want/need in the next 12 months. Japanese consumers
continue to prioritise putting spare cash into savings but spending on holidays and out-of-
home entertainment has expanded. The economy, war, and health rate as the top concerns
among Japanese consumers. Tensions in the region with North Korea may be driving the
concern of war which rose 9% since Q4 2016.
FMCG performance continues to be stagnant at -0.7%. Supermarkets’ performance declined
due to both fewer customers as well as smaller spend per customer in both May and June.
Convenience stores showed continued growth as did drugstore chains driven by the growth
in food categories low-price strategies. While offline retail performance continues to struggle
with the decline of retail stores in rural areas and the closing of large stores in metropolitan
areas, e-commerce in Japan is increasing at a rapid rate (average growth of +10.9% across
all categories), gaining the support of consumers due to its rich assortment offering.
With population declines and low profits, many Japanese companies look for growth beyond
domestic borders and have shifted their markets overseas. Although traditionally, it was
only local giants that focussed on market expansion outside of Japan, medium sized local
players are following this strategy for growth. While the Japanese retail environment is
challenging, opportunities can be found for companies with a genuine understanding of
consumers wants and needs. Consumers today do not purchase on price alone, rather they
evaluate the total product based on criteria that matters most to them. It is critical that
product development encompasses a high-quality offer as well as providing benefits (e.g.
joy, convenience, uniqueness.) consumers seek.
Toshihiro
Fukutoku
Managing Director,
Japan
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
0.5
1.0 1.1
1.7 1.6 1.4
0.0
-0.3 -0.5
0.3 0.3 0.3
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114
73 69 71 73
87
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP JP
* Commentary supported by Ayako Ono,
Senior Analyst, INTAGE, Japan
- 24. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL JAPAN – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Increases in prices of cooking oil, wheat, and dairy products have
impacted consumer spending
Supermarket performance is stagnant due to price increases,
while drugstores offer lower price food options assisting growth.
HC: Home Centre. DS: Discount storeSource: INTAGE : – a Japan based partner sourcing RMS data to Nielsen Japan
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
1.6%
0.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7%
1.1%
0.6% 0.4%
0.5% 0.3%
1.2%
-0.3%
1.9% 1.2% 1.8%
0.6%
1.1% 1.3%
-2.3%
-1.0%
2.8%
0.2%
3.3%
2.9%
3.6%
1.7% 1.6% 1.6%
-1.8%
-0.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
60%21%
3%
17%
-0.8%
2.3%
-1.2%
1.8%
Super Market DRUG HC/DS CVS
- 25. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
0.2%
1.1%
2.0%
-0.4%
1.4%
-3.1%
Total FMCG Personal Care Home Care Foods Beverage Paper Product
Performance of household and personal care goods are
relatively healthy but higher prices in paper goods has impacted
performance.
TOTAL JAPAN – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
Source: INTAGE : – a Japan based partner sourcing RMS data to Nielsen Japan
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
12%
7%
56%
21%
4%
- 26. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
MALAYSIA SNAPSHOT
Richard Hall
Managing Director,
Malaysia
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
4.1 4.0
4.3 4.5
5.6 5.8
3.4
1.9
1.3
1.7
4.3
4.0
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114
79
87 89
84
94
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP MY
The Malaysian consumer confidence showed signs of resilience in the second
quarter of 2017 with an index score of 94 – up 7 points compared to Q2 2016.
This upward shift in sentiment is likely a result of the improvement in key
economic indicators and a stabilising currency. There still remains a question
on the disconnect between the economic indicators and consumer sentiment
which, although moving in the same direction now, indicates the average
Malaysian consumer is not feeling the impact of the positive economic growth at
a grass roots level.
Although the economy remains the number one concern for half of the nation’s
consumers, uncertainty will most likely intensify as the election period
approaches, which could be anytime in the next year.
Despite the overall more positive consumer sentiment and economic
environment, the effect has yet to be felt in the FMCG sector with value down to
-0.4% for the year to Q2 2017 compared to 5.7% in Q2 2016. Although the
decline has slowed somewhat during the second quarter (-0.2%).
The recent Ramadhan period was flat, although Drugstores and Pharmacies
reported strong growth this quarter, coming from the cosmetics category post-
festive sales. Nevertheless, all other key categories showed a decline, with
beverages having the largest impact.
There is hope the current positive economic environment will encourage
increased consumer spending in the second half of the year. However,
suppliers and manufactures should proactively seek out alternative ways to grow
- rather than just passing on the cost to the consumer. Better focus on pipeline
management and alternative pack sizes or bundles may show better returns.
- 27. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL PEN MALAYSIA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Q2 recovery was supported by strong performance of Personal
Care and Health & Wellness in Drugstore and Pharmacy channels
with festive messages during Ramadan period
Drugstore/Pharmacy is the only channel growing in the last six
months driven not only by mainstream brands but smaller
manufacturers, especially within the Health & Beauty segments.
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
2.1%
2.0%
3.3% 2.5% 2.1%
-0.1%
1.5%
1.9%
2.2%
1.6%
3.6%
-2.4%
2.1%
1.8% 3.2% 8.1%
0.9%
-1.4% -6.3%
-1.9%
5.7%
-0.4%
5.4%
4.3%
5.2%
8.0%
2.3%
0.5%
-4.1%
-0.2%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
72%
26%
2%
1.6%
-5.5%
-1.8%
Modern Trade Trad Trade Others
- 28. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
Consumers are purchasing fewer sweet Beverages and focusing more
on Health and Personal Care products especially through
drugstores/pharmacies
TOTAL PEN MALAYSIA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL PEN MALAYSIA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
Specialty brand players specifically within Non-Food categories are
finding growth providing functional (health/beauty) value to consumers
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
25%
26%
10%
8%
19%
9%
2% -0.4%
-0.2%
-6.2%
3.4%
-2.9%
4.6%
1.7%
11.7%
Total FMCG Dry Categories
Beverage Snacks & Confectionery
Powdered Milk/IMF Personal Care
Household Health & Wellness
24%
10%
25%
24%
18%
-0.4%
-3.5%
0.5%
-2.2%
0.9%
4.2%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 29. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
MYANMAR SNAPSHOT
Thurein Nyein
Managing Director
Myanmar
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source World Bank & Myanmar Statistical Information Service
Myanmar Consumer Confidence is updated annual in Q4.
107
111
105
110
Q4 2015 Q4 2016
AP MYAN
Myanmar’s economy has slowed slightly but both government and private sectors are hoping
for positive movements and outcomes given the significant increase in FDI (foreign direct
investment) compared to same period last year. More than 70% of foreign businesses
registered in Q2 are service companies. However, a lag in exports and the depreciation of
the kyat challenges the economy. Agriculture business is struggling due to limited export
destinations, along with issues in product quality and production volume. Inflation rates have
seen increases in specific essential areas such as transportation (9.8%) due to flooding in
certain areas which created logistics issues that trickled down to general goods and non-food
products .
Nonetheless, FMCG still exhibits steady growth at 14.6% for Q2 2017 versus year ago. The
retail market continues to expand distribution outside of Yangon, with multinational companies
working closely with local distributors to increase speed of product distribution.
Myanmar’s population is increasingly connected. Internet penetration is steadily growing to be
31% (+5% from 2016). Over 22 million people in Myanmar own at least one mobile phone,
85% of which are smartphone owners. Facebook is growing in popularity with 91%
penetration (+10% from 2016). E-commerce is also emerging in Myanmar – from informal
purchasing from online sellers on Facebook, to the introduction of app-based food delivery
services. More affordable rates for data plans is behind increasing consumer connectivity.
Banks have recently started offering credit cards, and while usage is still significantly lower
(10x less) than ATM/debit cards, growing adoption can pave the way for faster adoption of e-
commerce in more structured formal channels in the near future. The increasing number of
digital marketing agencies in Myanmar also indicates the importance businesses are placing
on having a strong digital presence to expand their reach and engagement with consumers.
Myanmar’s invitation to join the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in the next 16 months
provides opportunity for local companies to learn and adopt best practices from the region
and benefit from foreign direct investment to enhance trade. Local companies however face
challenges by AEC entry with increased competition creating a need to elevate product
quality in the manufacturing sector and greater trade financing support required in the banking
sector. The government continues to enhance its investment laws to attract foreign
investors. It is an exciting time for Myanmar as new policy will make it easier for foreign
companies to do business within its borders. Companies should be prepared with strong
local knowledge to get ahead of the game
8.0
7.3
6.5 6.9
5.5
10.8 11.0
7.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 forecast
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
- 30. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
FMCG demonstrates robust growth in Q2 as prices stabilise
across categories compared to last year and previous quarters
MYANMAR – 6 CITIES (QUARTERLY GROWTH VERSUS YEAR AGO)
* limited back data for total FMCG
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
0.9% 0.7%
0.6%
12.5%
14.5% 14.0%
13.4%
15.3% 14.6%
Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
- 31. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
14.6%
13.6%
14.9%
20.3%
11.4%
7.2%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31 -100 100+
14.6%
17%
12%
12%
26%
3%
Total FMCG Alcoholic Beverage Non-Alcoholic Beverage Foods Cigarette Non-Food
Beverages lead the growth as most players aggressively push for
distribution expansion
Most manufacturers are growing, particularly medium-sized
players, bringing innovation to the market
TOTAL MYANMAR (6 CITIES) – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL MYANMAR (6 CITIES) – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE – FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– Q2-2017
37%
33%
11%
11%
8%
43%
13%
23%
16%
4%
- 32. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
NEW ZEALAND SNAPSHOT
Rob Clark
Managing Director,
New Zealand
New Zealand’s latest GDP continues to be positive at 3.0% for year ending March
2017. Tourism continues to be a major driver of GDP growth up 0.4% from Q4 2016.
Consumer confidence in New Zealand remains the highest in nine years at 103 -
seven points higher than the same time last year (Q2 2016). Increasing confidence
among Kiwis has been driven by a more positive outlook on local job prospects and
the state of their personal finances. New Zealand’s unemployment rate (currently at
4.8%), has moved in the opposite direction to consumer confidence and is the lowest
it has been since March 2009, showing once again how positive Kiwis are feeling
about life.
New Zealanders’ biggest concerns are a reflection of their current positive outlook.
Health, increasing food prices, rising utility expenses, job security and work/life
balance are the top five concerns among Kiwis. They are less concerned about the
economy, jobs and debt levels which tend to feature more prominently during times
of low consumer confidence. They intend to use their spare cash to top up their
savings, pay off debts, and put toward holidays and buying new clothes.
Overall value growth for the New Zealand FMCG market is +3.7% in Q2 2017. This
is largely due to net migration continuing to drive volume growth, offset by low
inflation level. More specifically within supermarkets, we see two main contributors to
growth; price inflation in chilled categories (including butter, fresh milk and cream,
and cheese) as well as new product development fuelling confectionery growth (in
both value and unit growth).
In New Zealand, there are a number of forces which look to change the competitive
retail landscape. Should Aldi choose to expand beyond Australia and into NZ, this
will place a wedge between the duopoly of the two major grocers - increasing both
price competition and margin pressure for retailers and manufacturers. The rapid rise
in meal kit sales has also taken retailers by surprise. This represents both a threat
and opportunity for them, and needs to be part of their broader e-commerce strategic
plan. The growth in meal kits has been fuelled by an increasing number of
consumers looking for convenient ways for nutritious meals to be delivered at
affordable prices that minimise waste.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
NZ GDP for Q2 not released yet
3.9
4.4
4.1
3.5
3.7
0.0
0.4 0.4 0.4
1.3
2.2
1.7
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107
109
111
114
99
96
101
103 103
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP NZ
- 33. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL NEW ZEALAND – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE – N/A
Value growth at 3.7% for Q2 2017 has been driven
predominantly by chilled foods and confectionery performance
MODERN TRADE ACCOUNTS
FOR 100% OF THE
NEW ZEALAND MARKET
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
-1.5%
0.1%
-1.9%
-4.2%
-2.0%
-0.2%
-0.3% -0.4% -0.1%
1.0%
5.0%
2.8% 4.6% 8.9%
5.5%
3.1% 3.0% 2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
3.5%
2.9% 2.7%
4.7%
3.5%
2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6%
3.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
- 34. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
2.9%
2.4%
3.7%
2.7%
5.2%
5.1%
-18.5%
3.0%
1.8%
2.3%
5.6%
7.1%
3.9%
Total FMCG Alcohol Baby Products
Beverages Chilled Food Frozen Food
General Merchandise Grocery Household Paper Products
Personal Care Pet Supplies Snackfoods Confectionery
Tobacco
Small to medium sized suppliers (which tend to be locally based) are
seeing higher growth, with the ability to launch new products more
targeted to the NZ consumer
Chilled Food growth has been driven by price increases in dairy
categories, while innovation in confectionery is driving Snackfood and
Confectionary growth
TOTAL NEW ZEALAND – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL NEW ZEALAND – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
11%
2%
9%
17%
6%
3%
24%
6%
8%
3%
8%
3%
23%
10%
21%
23%
23%
2.9%
1.1%
0.6%
3.2%
3.1%
5.2%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 35. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
PHILIPPINES SNAPSHOT
Stuart Jamieson
Managing Director,
The Philippines
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
7.1 7.0 7.1
6.4 6.4 6.4
1.1 1.6
2.1
2.5
3.1 3.1
Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114119
132 132 132 130
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP PH
With the Philippines growing at 6.4% in Q2 2017, it remains as one of the best performing
economies in Asia. Household consumption remained at 5.9% while government
consumption expanded by 7.1% from a meagre 0.1% in Q1 2017. The agriculture sector
continued to recover from El Niño, expanding by 6.3% while services remain the main driver
of growth at 6.1%. Inflation increased to above 3% but was still within the Central Bank
expectation of 2-4% Peso is the worst performing currency in Asia breaching P51 to the $.
In the second quarter of 2017, optimism amongst Filipino consumers was the most bullish
globally at 130 despite a slight dip of two points from Q4 2016 While the three confidence
indicators remain high, slight decreases (-2% ) were noted across job optimism, immediate
spending intentions and state of personal finances compared to Q4 2016. Job security and
health are the top two major concerns of Filipino consumers. Most notable is the rising
concern of Filipino respondents over terrorism 20% compared to 6% in Q4 2016 which was
not surprising after the Resorts world incident and the start of the Marawi siege.
FMCG looks to continue to grow despite some softening in recent quarters. A number of e-
commerce players are intensifying their efforts in the Philippines. Small store formats such
as conveniences stores and minimarts continue to grow with regional supermarket chains
rolling out their own small store outlets.
A Tax Reform Bill is being passed through legislation which includes lowering the personal
income tax over several years for lower income earners, and implementing an excise tax on
motor vehicles and petroleum products and a Sugar Tax on Sweetened Beverages. The
President also signed an Executive Order banning smoking outside of designated areas.
This will dampen cigarette consumption as fewer sari-sari stores will handle the category
given stores within 100 metres of schools are not allowed to sell and shoppers are not
allowed to light a cigarette within this zone.
As the government looks to implement a number of tax reforms it is critical for retailers and
manufacturers to understand and be prepared for how its effects will impact consumer
behaviour. While consumers will potentially find themselves with additional income, it is
uncertain how much will be spent on FMCG versus durables or savings. Anticipating price
increases that will come with a sugar tax and its impact on consumption is critical for
manufacturers to be armed for the future. Philippines continues to be a market ripe with
opportunity. It has a demographic sweet spot with a median age of 23 and as internet and
smartphone penetration continue to increase, pockets of growth will be there for the taking.
- 36. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL PHILIPPINES – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Volume is softer with the full effect of election period (Q2 2016)
Traditional Trade sales lag Modern Trade due to softening of
beverages and cigarettes
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
3.1% 2.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%
2.5% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4%
3.1%
4.9%
4.1%
4.6%
3.6%
6.1%
5.8% 6.6% 5.5%
3.2% 1.7%
8.0%
6.8%
7.9%
6.8%
9.3%
8.3%
8.9%
8.2%
5.5%
4.9%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
57%
43%
6.5%
7.3%
Modern Trade Traditional Trade
- 37. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
6.8%
4.2%
9.2%
7.7%
10.1%
6.6%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
Mixed performance from manufacturer segments.
Growth coming mostly from food companies
Confectionery/snacks and Cooking Aids are leading food growth
Non-food growth led by Fabric Conditioner and Paper categories
TOTAL PHILIPPINES – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL PHILIPPINES – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE – FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE
GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
38%
16%
22%
17%
8%
0%
27%
5%
17%
11%
5%
3%
6%
10%
1%
1%
0%
3%
11%
- 38. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
SINGAPORE SNAPSHOT
JOHAN
VRANCKEN
Managing Director,
Singapore
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
1.9 1.9
1.2
2.9 2.7 2.9
-0.8 -0.9
-0.4
0.0 0.6 0.8
Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114
88 88
94
86 89
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP SG
Driven by a stronger performing manufacturing and services sector, Singapore’s
GDP grew by 2.9% in Q2 2017. Domestic wholesale trade has also grown by 18.5%
in the same period . The trade-led recovery is slowly being felt by the domestic
economy, with unemployment rates falling to 3.3% in June from 3.5% in March.
Singapore’s consumers are showing increasing optimism with the confidence index
at 89 up three points from Q4 2016. Easing apprehension over job prospects is
evident (36% in Q2 2017 vs 32% in Q4 2016) in line with falling unemployment.
However, job security and the economy remained as the top major concerns.
Saving is still top of mind with more than six in 10 Singaporeans putting spare cash
in savings.
The marginal improvements in the economy have not been felt in FMCG, with spend
declining at -2.7% in Q2 2017/. Decline in spend could also reflect consumer
purchases in alternative channels such as e-commerce . While overall FMCG spend
declined, shoppers are shifting towards Modern Trade retailers which offer more
frequent promotions, especially when paired with strong loyalty programmes which
offer increased value. Shoppers are also looking towards house brands/private label
as a way to save money and perceived to offer comparable quality to named
brands.
E-commerce continues to grow steadily despite the majority of grocery shopping still
happening in offline channels. This growth is expected to continue and accelerate,
especially with the impending launch of Amazon Prime in Singapore. Health and
wellness is gaining more prominence among Singaporeans, with consumers putting
in more efforts to plan for healthier meal options. The Ministry of Health recently
introduced the Healthier Ingredients Development Scheme (HIDS), that provides
funding support for food manufacturers to incorporate more whole grains and
healthier cooking oils in their products. Health supplement categories are seeing
robust growth, supported by one in four Singaporeans incorporating them into their
diets.
Economics, taste and convenience are still very important in purchase decisions.
Manufacturers should look for opportunities to combine these attributes, helping time-
crunched consumers eat healthily without sacrificing taste or breaking the bank.
- 39. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TOTAL SINGAPORE – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
Singaporeans continue to tighten their purse strings in a tough
economic environment as evident by declining FMCG performance
While Traditional Trade declines rapidly, Modern Trade focuses
on promotions to encourage shoppers to the channel.
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
-0.7%
0.5%
-1.1%
-1.1%
-1.6%
0.3%
-0.6%
0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
1.7%
-2.7%
2.9%
1.3%
3.3%
-0.3%
-0.8%
-2.1%
-2.9%
-2.9%
0.9%
-2.2%
1.8%
0.2%
1.7%
0.0%
-1.4%
-1.9%
-2.8% -2.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
8%
92%
-12.3%
-1.2%
General Trade Modern Trade
- 40. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
-2.2%
-7.4%
-2.0%
-3.2%
-0.1%
-0.7%
3.3%
-4.3%
-2.0%
-2.2%
11.1%
FMCG Beverages Beer, Wine, Stout
Snacks/Confectionery Grocery Hot Beverages
Supplements Dairy Household Care
Personal Care Health Care
The increased emphasis in healthy living trends continue, with
strong performance in Supplements and Health Care categories
Decline in Top 6-10 manufacturers driven by category
performance
TOTAL SINGAPORE – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL SINGAPORE – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
12%
9%
9%
20%
5%
6%
15%
6%
17%
2%
23%
10%
21%
19%
27%
-2.2%
-2.4%
-6.0%
-2.2%
-1.2%
-1.3%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 41. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
SOUTH KOREA SNAPSHOT
Cindy Shin
Managing Director,
South Korea
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
2.9
3.4
2.6
2.4
3.0
2.8
0.9 0.8 0.7
1.4
2.1 2.0
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114
44 45 46 43
63
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP KO
Although the economic policy of South Korea’s new government has not yet come
into effect, GDP has grown by 2.8% to Q2 2017 driven by the increased domestic
consumption, despite the slowdown in exports caused by the political conflict with
China over the “THHAD” issue (American anti-ballistic missile defence system).
Korean consumers are increasingly confident, with consumer confidence index
growing from below 50 across all quarters in 2016 to 63 points in Q2 2017. This
highlights Koreans growing confidence and hopeful expectations towards
President Moon and his new administration which took office in May 2017, with
public support levels over 70%.
In offline FMCG, bakery and beverage categories are experiencing growth along
with the rapidly expanding convenience channel. Demand for canned and chilled
food is also increasing accompanied by the growth in home meal replacement.
Food categories are seeing growth both offline (5%) and significant and swift
expansion in e-commerce (up to 20%). While offline sales are shrinking for
personal care and household products, these categories are still expected to grow
online as constantly connected consumers shift their purchasing patterns to this
channel.
With such a recovery in consumer confidence, manufacturers are expected to
increase their investment in product innovation to satisfy the rising expectations of
local consumers. Premium offerings that offer genuine value to consumers lives
available in diverse channels - both on and offline.
- 42. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
FMCG growth evident in value and volume coming from lower tier
‘value for money’ offerings as well as high-end premium products.
Modern trade dominates off-line channel due to transformation of
Mom & Pop shops to convenience stores
TOTAL SOUTH KOREA – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
1.1%
0.5%
1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2%
-0.4%
0.5% 0.0%
1.3%
0.9%
3.0%
0.7%
0.5%
2.0%
1.4%
4.0%
4.3%
2.8%
1.4%2.0%
3.5%
1.9% 1.7%
2.8%
1.6%
3.6%
4.8%
2.8% 2.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
3%
97%
-4.4%
3.8%
Traditional Trade Modern Trade
- 43. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
3.5%
6.0%
8.8%
10.8%
6.3%
-3.2%
3.9%
-7.7%
8.1%
-3.8%
0.7%
-2.9%
-6.2%
-6.1%
3.6%
Total FMCG Baby Products Beverage
Canned Food / Meals Chilled Food Coffee & Tea
Dairy Detergent Drinks & Liquor
Home Consumables Noodles Paper Products
Personal Care Seasonings Snack
Growth is evident across all tiers with the increased investment in
innovation. Larger companies are growing with focus on
premium products.
Home meal replacement category is driving growth of Food
market due to consumers’ thirst for convenience.
TOTAL SOUTH KOREA – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
TOTAL SOUTH KOREA – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
1%
16%
6%
9%
4%
10%
3%
16%
1%
7%
4%
4%
6%
13%
26%
16%
33%
18%
6%
3.5%
4.7%
4.9%
0.8%
2.7%
11.8%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 44. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
TAIWAN SNAPSHOT
Taiwan’s economy remained relatively stable with annual GDP growth of 2.1% to Q2
2017, supported by foreign demand for exports that showed double-digit growth since
Q4 2016.
This economic stability was reflected in consumer optimism which saw an uplift of 7
points to 79. All consumer measures improved including job prospects, state of
personal finances and consumers believing it is a good time to buy the things they
want or need.
The Taiwan FMCG market softened in Q2 2017. However retailers and manufacturers
continued to drive momentum attracting consumers with new and innovative products
in both Food and Non-Food categories.
One emerging trend that continues to grow is “health”. Consumers have an increasing
awareness on health and wellbeing with growing popularity of innovations including
additive-free and 100% natural ingredients offerings. Consumers are seeking more
information about the products they buy with 42% of consumers always reading
packaging or nutritional labels. Some manufacturers have changed their packages to
capture these changing consumer preferences.
Smaller manufacturers are seeing growth ahead of the market - especially small
brands within personal care categories. For instance, in beauty industries (skin-care
and cosmetic categories), leading brands are feeling the pressure of small brand
innovation highlighting Taiwanese consumers openness to trying new offerings.
E-commerce in Taiwan has evolved over the last ten years. While travel and
books/music/stationery are the most popular categories bought online, Beauty and
Personal Care, Household and Paper, and Packaged Grocery Food categories are
starting to attract more online shoppers. While the average share of online FMCG
categories in Taiwan is around 5%, online sales can account for up to 30% in Health
and Beauty related categories.
Overall, even though the population in Taiwan remains flat due to low birth rates, there
are still growing opportunities for retailers and manufacturers to tap into consumer
needs around health consciousness and willingness to try new products, ensuring
they deliver a value-added proposition to win the market.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
-0.2
1.1
2.1
2.8
2.6
2.1
1.7
1.3
0.7
1.8
0.8 0.6
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108 107 109 111 114
76 73 75 72
79
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP TW
Desmond Wang
Managing Director,
Taiwan
- 45. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
FMCG momentum slowed in Q2 2017 after an artificial high in 2016 following
packaged Food categories rebound from food safety scandals in 2015
Modern Trade growth driven by expansion in the number of Chain
Super stores compared to last year.
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
TOTAL TAIWAN – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
1.1%
1.3%
1.1%
0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
2.7%
2.7%
-0.5%
3.7%
5.0%
4.8%
3.9%
4.4%
2.9% 0.7%
3.8% 4.0%
0.6%
4.1%
5.4%
5.7%
4.6%
5.6%
4.1%
1.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
81%
19%
4.2%
3.3%
Modern Trade Traditional Trade
- 46. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
4.0%
-0.5%
5.3%
4.4%
6.5%
2.4%
-1.2%
1.6%
-1.7%
3.1%
Total FMCG Baby Foods Beverage Confectionary & Snack
Household Food Nutrition Supplement Household Paper Household Product
Medicine Application Personal Care
Small manufacturers have performed strongly ahead of others, due to
effective innovation and marketing campaigns
Product innovation in Beverages has been a key growth driver for
total FMCG.
TOTAL TAIWAN – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
TOTAL TAIWAN – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
2.4%
34%
15%
13%
5%
4%
8%
1%
17%
21%
9%
22%
20%
26%
4.0%
4.9%
3.0%
1.6%
3.0%
6.6%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 47. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
108
107
109
111
114
105
101
108
110
107
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP TH
Thailand’s economy grew 3.7% in Q2 2017, led by a growth in the agricultural and
tourism-oriented service sectors. Private consumption expanded by 3%, compared to
3.2% growth in Q1 driven by increased expenditure on durable goods and services, an
expansion in personal loans and lower inflation rates due predominantly to cheaper
petrol prices and fresh food.
Thailand continues to be one of the most optimistic countries in the region but despite
the positive economy, consumer confidence declined 3 points (since Q4 2016) to 107
points. The economy, job security and debt top the list of concerns for Thais in Q2
2017. During the ongoing period of economic uncertainty, a rise in household debt has
caused households to be more sensitive to the movement of interest rates which is
impacting spending. The rise in household debt may also explain why majority of Thais”
(69%) are putting spare cash into saving while over half intend to cut down on out of
home entertainment and spend less on new clothes to cut back on their expenses.
In FMCG, value growth contracted -5.7% in Q2 2017 primarily because of reduced
sales in Alcohol and Cigarettes (-12%), and Non-Alcoholic beverages (-7%) during the
quarter. Lower temperatures as well as earlier and heavier rainfall contributed to a
decrease in beverage consumption this summer as well as the impact of back door
sales activity being withdrawn through super/hypermarkets. Across retail channels,
convenience is the only channel with positive growth (+3%) in Q2. Recent store
expansion (+4% year-on-year) is driving this growth, but also is leading to lower sales
per store.
High levels of household debt will likely lead to cautious consumer spending and slow
FMCG growth in the year ahead. To penetrate a highly fragmented market under these
circumstances, cost management is the key to sustainable growth. Mass market
strategies are not sustainable in this environment. Instead businesses need to identify
specific areas of potential growth using a more granular approach to target unique
customer segments, regions, or districts and determine the optimal ways to trigger
demand. The government’s recent regulation to introduce a new “sugar tax” on non-
alcoholic beverages in September 2017 will have far reaching implications across many
categories such as soft drink, energy drink, and fruit juice. Manufacturers need to
proactively address the growing health concerns of consumers to ensure the longevity
of their business models.
THAILAND SNAPSHOT
Somwalee
Limrachtamorn
Managing Director,
Thailand
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
3.1
3.7
3.1 3.1
3.3
3.7
-0.5
0.3 0.3
0.7
1.3
0.1
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
- 48. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
FMCG shows negative growth for three consecutive quarters due to
sluggish sales of high-value categories such as Cigarettes, Alcoholic
and Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Modern Trade slows due to less promotion and back door
activities in Super/Hypermarkets; while Traditional Trade faces a
challenge with lower spend in store
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)
TOTAL THAILAND – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
1.3%
1.8%
0.7% 0.6% 2.3% 2.5%
3.0%
2.9%
1.8%
1.0%
2.8%
-4.4%
3.1% 3.1%
2.8%
1.5%
-2.1%
-3.8%
-5.9%
-6.7%
4.1%
-2.5%
3.9% 3.7%
5.0%
4.0%
0.9%
-1.0%
-4.1%
-5.7%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
47%
53%
-4.8%
-0.4%
Traditional Trade Modern Trade
- 49. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
Impulse categories - Snack, Biscuit, Ice Cream, Candy and Chocolate perform
well due to new product launches and promotions, especially in convenience
TOTAL THAILAND – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL THAILAND – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG
NOMINAL GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
The top five manufacturers show a decline due to their reliance on
Alcohol and Cigarette categories
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
13%
5%
8%
25%16%
32%
-2.5%
0.7%
1.4%
5.7%
-4.0%
-0.1%
-6.2%
Total FMCG Personal Care Household Care
Impulse Beverage Other Foods
Alcoholic & Tobacco
35%
13%18%
19%
14% -2.5%
-6.9%
-4.3%
0.1%
1.2%
2.3%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 50. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXECONOMY WATCH
VIETNAM SNAPSHOT
Huong Quynh
Nguyen
Managing Director,
Vietnam
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
5.5 5.6
6.6 6.8
5.1
6.2
1.3
2.2 2.8
4.4
5.0
3.3
Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
108
107
109
111
114
109
107 107
112
117
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
AP VN
Vietnam’s GDP grew by 5.7% in the first six months of 2017, below the initial target
of 6.7%. This was due to a number of factors such as a slowdown in the industrial
sector, a pork surplus crisis following China’s import restrictions, lower rice output
and a widening trade deficit.
In spite of this, consumer confidence remains positive at 117 points – a record peak
over the last 5 years. However job security is becoming a growing concern for
Vietnamese consumers.
FMCG performance decelerated slightly in Q2 2017 after reaching record peaks in
the previous 2 quarters. This performance can mostly be attributed to the low
season after Lunar New Year period. The Vietnam market has fluctuated over the
last 2 years and future performance needs to be monitored carefully for the
remainder of the year. Manufacturers should actively seek growth opportunities;
identifying white spaces of unmet consumer need and tapping into new markets and
categories to drive new sources of growth and sustainable business into the future.
Rural Vietnam continues to be a high potential opportunity for many manufacturers.
While the urban sector has grown 5.1% this quarter compared to same time year
ago, rural area has seen stronger growth at 6.5%, accounting for almost 58% of
total FMCG sales.
More than 60% of Vietnam’s population live in the rural areas and there are
excellent opportunities for companies in this sector. Urbanisation, internet access
and smartphones are changing the lives of rural consumers. Increasingly connected
and exposed to a diversified media world, rural consumers are changing their
lifestyles and becoming more like their urban counterparts in towns and big cities.
More surprisingly, rural consumers do not only desire quality but they are willing to
pay more for products that offer it. With many of these rural areas “opening up” with
greater accessibility than ever before, there is ample opportunity for manufacturers
and retailers to find fertile ground with a new customer base.
- 51. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
Growth slowed down in Q2’17 due to low season following Tet. Majority
of growth is from overall consumption growth and less price fluctuation
Modern Trade continued to grow and store numbers expand
especially with new entrants in smaller formats.
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS (VIETNAM 6 CITIES)
(weighted average)
TOTAL VIETNAM (6 CITIES) – CHANNEL PERFORMANCE
VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH – MAT Q2-2017
0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7%
1.3% 1.2%
0.7%
3.9%
5.0%
3.8%
4.6%
2.3%
5.2%
3.5%
6.0% 5.5%
4.9%
4.8%
6.0%
4.7%
5.4%
2.9%
6.3%
4.3%
7.3%
6.7%
5.6%
MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth
90%
10%
5.5%
10.2%
TRADITIONAL TRADE MODERN TRADE
- 52. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company
Beverage continued to dominate FMCG, but experienced slower
growth than Food
Smaller local manufacturers carved a path for growth given depth
of understanding the nuances of local consumers and retailers.
TOTAL VIETNAM (6 CITIES) – SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
TOTAL VIETNAM (6 CITIES) – MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE – FMCG
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
– MAT Q2-2017
VALUE CONTRIBUTION
– MAT Q2-2017
41%
13%
15%
15%
6%
8%
3%
6.0%
6.0%
6.1%
10.4%
2.1%
7.8%
8.2%
-5.8%
Total FMCG Beverage Cigarette Foods
Milk Bases Home Care Personal Care Baby Care
36%
17%
28%
13%
6% 6.0%
6.6%
6.0%
5.8%
2.1%
11.6%
Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+
- 53. Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHO’S FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
AUSTRALIA
58%
11%
31%
FMCG
LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% SHARE OF FMCG % VALUE GROWTH
4%
-4%
3%
MNC REGIONAL LOCAL
*SUPER CATEGORY NOT AVAILABLE
CHINA
Click on icon for
“industry expert” view on
Global vs Local brands
% SHARE OF FMCG
30% 24% 24% 21%
54%
7% 8% 8%
0%
7%
63% 68% 68% 78%
39%
FMCG FOOD BEVERAGE HOUSEHOLD PERSONAL
-6% -4% -2%
-8% -9%
10% 12% 7%
46%
9%
3% 5%
-5%
8%
18%
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
* See Appendix for Methodology
% VALUE GROWTH
Without a doubt, winners can be found across all sectors and markets - big and small, global, regional. But
where we see continued and sustained growth across the region is among local players in the region. This
section showcases see how players are performing across individual markets. See the Big Picture on Page 3
for the full story.
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8%
-2%
12% 12% 9%
30%
-8%
0%
41%
34%
19% 21%
10%
18% 16%
WHO’S FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
HONG KONG
% SHARE OF FMCG
70% 74% 72%
43%
68%
10% 7% 6%
29%
15%
20% 18% 22% 28% 17%
-4%
-6%
6%
4%
-7%
6%
2%
8%
4%
11%
4% 1%
7%
-4%
10%
% VALUE GROWTH
% SHARE OF FMCG
48%
24%
69% 58% 62%
2%
0%
0%
0% 5%
50%
76%
31% 42% 33%
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
% VALUE GROWTH
INDIA
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
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7% 9%
3%
7% 8%9%
3%
7%
17%
11%10% 7%
18%
1%
6%
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
INDONESIA
36%
10%
50% 36%
53%
9%
11%
1%
8%
20%
56%
79%
49% 56%
27%
16%
7%
16%
34%
16%
25%
18% 13%
42%
30%27% 26% 30%
18%
31%
53% 50% 42%
60% 71%
17%
4% 32%
23% 15%30%
46%
26% 17% 14%
MALAYSIA
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
WHO’S FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
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7% 9%
3%
7% 8%9%
3%
7%
17%
11%10% 7%
18%
1%
6%
NEW ZEALAND
43% 34% 31%
58%
85%13% 14% 26%
0%
0%44% 43% 43% 42%
15%
55%
32%
67% 72% 77%
4%
5%
6% 0% 0%40%
62%
27% 28% 23%
11% 7%
15% 12%
6%
24%
19%
31%
0% 0%
14% 13% 17%
10% 11%
PHILIPPINES
WHO’S FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
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-5%
13%
2%
-12% -12%
1%
-1%
6%
-3%
-7%
3% 3% 4%
-7%
-3%
-18% -11% -3% -5%
-34%
-4% -2%
9% 9%
-25%
-12%
1%
-10% -13%
-41%
SINGAPORE
49% 42% 45% 55% 62%
23% 21%
32% 23% 18%
28% 37% 23% 22% 20%
14% 4% 14%
41% 53%14%
17%
14%
8%
6%
72% 79% 72%
51% 41%
SOUTH KOREA
WHO’S FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
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2% 2%
4%
2%
-1%
5%
2%
9%
1%
9%
6% 6% 7%
2%
8%
-2%
6%
-3% -5% -7%
3%
0%
2%
14%
7%6% 8% 5% 2% 4%
TAIWAN
27% 28% 12%
40% 52%
28% 20%
30%
23%
36%45% 52% 58%
37%
12%
44%
26%
43%
59% 64%
17%
25%
10%
26% 21%39% 49% 48%
15% 15%
THAILAND
WHO’S FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
MNC
REGIONAL
LOCAL
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
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2%
-1%
7%
-2% -7%
10% 6% 6%
50%
13%7%
-1%
11% 13% 9%
VIETNAM
47%
10%
53%
72% 66%
11%
21%
2%
5% 26%42%
69%
45%
23% 8%
% SHARE OF FMCG
% VALUE GROWTH
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
Contact your local Nielsen representative for more information
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Analysis referenced in “The Big Picture” and country specific details comes from a
deep dive analysis of Top 100 Manufacturers in each local market, which were
classified into the following segments based on Total FMCG data from Q3 2016.
These manufacturers accounting for approximately 85% of Total FMCG. Alcohol and
Tobacco is excluded from this analysis but is available on request to local client
service.
• Local player: 80%+ share of sales in one market (e.g. Indofood, JS Unitrade,
Monde Nissin and Wings)
• Regional player: less than 80% share of sales in one market and active in 3 or
more markets (e.g. Kao, Mayora, Unicharm and Universal Robina Corporation)
• Global: big multinational corporations (e.g. Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson,
Kimberly-Clark, Mars, Nestlé PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser and
Unilever)
Definitions of FMCG vary by market as it does for Quarter by Numbers and can be
seen in the QBN standard Definitions. For the purpose of this analysis we grouped
all categories into 4 groups – Food, Beverage, Household and Personal as indicated
by the icons respectively below.
WHO’S FINDING GROWTH?
METHODOLOGY
FOOD BEVERAGES
HOUSEHOLD PERSONAL CARE
TOTAL FMCG
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Economy Watch
% GDP per annum growth sourced from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Inflation, consumer prices % change per annum sourced from Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU) unless sourced otherwise.
Consumer Confidence Index - Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China
survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate
degrees of optimism/pessimism. Q1 2017 CCI results are unavailable, resulting in
comparisons made to Q4 2016.
Myanmar Consumer Confidence is an annual consumer sentiment dipstick provided in Q4
2016leveraging a face to face methodology across 6 key cities
FMCG Market Dynamics - compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the
Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in the
mentioned APAC markets. The FMCG definition is based on the widest possible basket of
product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and
channels. Japan data from INTAGE – a Japan based partner sourcing RMS data to Nielsen
Japan
Nominal value growth: Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by
the total basket of reported product categories
Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change):
The change in average price per unit may result from:
• Price changes of individual products
• Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less
promotions, etc.
• Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or
convenience outlets, etc.
• Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result
of market dynamics.
• The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual
grocery shopping behaviour.
Volume growth: Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products
Super Category Performance – definition of Super Categories are based on local market
definitions
CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS
DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES