The document discusses how operational research was used to help dogs and animal welfare organizations. A pro bono operational research steering group developed a model to understand the flows of dogs through the UK system and forecast the impacts of interventions. This helped the RSPCA inform campaigns and policy responses. The group also worked with a dog welfare beneficiary to create a probability tree tool to help dog breeders predict genetic risks and make informed breeding decisions. The tool aims to increase awareness and investigate different breeding strategies. Overall, the pro bono work shows how operational research can make a positive difference.

1. Pro Bono OR:
Making a difference
for dogs
Ian J Seath
Trustee Exchange
29 July 2020

2. Operational Research and me!
PBOR
Steering
Group
Volunteer
Project
Facilitator
Project
Beneficiary

3. Pro Bono OR Steering Group
PBOR
Steering
Group
Volunteer
Project
Facilitator
Project
Beneficiary
• Steering Group member
from Day 1
• Project Definition &
Scoping

4. Pro Bono Volunteer
PBOR
Steering
Group
Volunteer
Project
Facilitator
Project
Beneficiary
• Commitment to 1
day/month Pro Bono
• >£100k of PB consulting
• Supported >25
organisations

5. Pro Bono Project Facilitator
PBOR
Steering
Group
Volunteer
Project
Facilitator
Project
Beneficiary

6. Can we answer the following questions?
• How many dogs there are “in
the system” in the UK and
how do they move between
different parts of the
system?
• How many dogs are
relinquished and why? Which
type of dog?
• Can we forecast the likely
impact of different
interventions ?

7. Stray dogs
Dogs in welfare
Owned dogs
Owned births
Owned
deaths
Stray births
Stray deaths
Welfare
births
Welfare deaths
Owned dogs to welfare
Welfare dogs to owned
Owned dogs to stray
Stray dogs to owned
Stray dogs to welfare
Imported owned dogs
Dogs imported to
welfare
Owned dog
exports
Number of dogs
microchipped
Owner education
level re dogs
Welfare life expectancy
Owned dog life
expectancy
Stray dog life
expectancy
Space available in
welfare
Euthanasia policy
Emmigration
Number of dog
breeders
Number of puppy
farms
Funding for welfare
Welfare capacity
Demand for
dogs in UK
Number of
owned dogs
having puppies
Demand for dogs -
non-UK
Disposable income
Insurance rates
Number of
dogs lost
Number of
dogs
abandoned
Number of dogs
neutered
9.4m (23)
2009 LB: 12,340
2010 LB:10,630
est 1,250 (300
to 2130)
111,000 per
year (13)
Strays back to owner -
53,280 per year (13)
Rehomed - 9,990
per year (13)
Put to sleep/die 8,880
per year (13)
Working dogs
27,750 per year (13)
Entering welfare:
129,743 per year (1)
0.5% of welfare in
flows (27, scaled)
11.4% of outflow died (27)
LB 7142 euthanised (1)
Assume 0
Welfare dogs reunited with
owner - 12.5% of those
entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7%
of those entering (27)
Rehomed - 80.9%
of outflows (27)
69.5% of welfare
inflows (27, scaled)
30% of welfare inflows (27,
scaled) - this includes LA and
public straying dogs
11.4% of dogs per
year? (36)
25% of dogs per
year? (est from
24, 41)
12 years (34)
4% of microchipped are from Ireland,
3% from other EU, 2% from outside
EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24)
50,000 dogs imported
from Ireland per year (31)
Working dogs
to owned
greyhounds - 3,910
per year (33)
Working
dog births
Working
dog deaths
Working dog life
expectancy
Requirements for
working dogs
Working dogs to
welfareAt least 2500
police dogs
(45)
The Model

8. How the RSPCA has been able to use the
results
 Helping to scope the direction of
their campaign to tackle the
illegal trade in puppies
 Using the data to inform their
response to DEFRA’s
consultation on overhauling
existing pet vending legislation

9. Pro Bono Beneficiary
PBOR
Steering
Group
Volunteer
Project
Facilitator
Project
Beneficiary
• Trustee
• Data-rich
• “Wicked” problems

10. Developing a tool to
help dog breeders
predict genetic risks

12. DNA tests Miniature Wirehaired Dachshunds
4 populations
2 tests available
Not consistently used
Tested and no recessive gene (clear)
Tested and non-symptomatic (carrier)
Known to suffer from
epilepsy (Lafora disease)
Need to identify breeding
pairs which may produce
affected puppies
Tested and symptomatic (affected)
Tested ”Not affected” (clear or carrier)
Identifies if the dog carries
the recessive gene
Lafora disease and DNA testing

13. Data
Lots of unknowns and estimated values.
Requirement
Simple, robust model which provides indicative
results.
Solution
Probability trees.
1
2
3
Developing a tool

14. Clear
Affected
Carrier
0.45
Clear
Carrier
0.45
Affected
Clear
Carrier
Affected
0.75
0.25
0
When a carrier and clear dog
breed, the resulting puppies
can be clear or carriers – there
are not two recessive genes
present to allow for an
affected puppy
Simple probability tree

15. The benefits
Increasing
awareness
• Probability of
breeding affected
puppies
Informed
decisions
• Robust, simple to
use model
Simple
methodology
• Investigate
different breeding
strategies
Predictive
analysis

16. The impact

17. OR and me!
PBOR
Steering
Group
Volunteer
Project
Facilitator
Project
Beneficiary

18. Lessons learned as a charity
Keep focused on
what you are
trying to
achieve
01
Keep in touch
with the analyst
on project
progress
02
Define “done”
with the analyst
– meet your
needs
03
It’s not about
being clever, it’s
about being
helpful
04

19. Ian J Seath
ian.seath@improvement-
skills.co.uk
07850 728506
www.dachshundhealth.org.uk

20. Q & A