Pro bono OR webinar - Making sense of data

www.theorsociety.com
Making sense of data -
Top tips to get you started
Host: Jane Parkin PBOR
Speaker: Ian J Seath, Director: Improvement Skills Consulting Ltd.
22nd April 2021

Today’s agenda
13:00
1: PBOR welcome & introduction
13:10
2: Making sense of data – top
tips
13:45
3: Q&A
14:00
4: Close
•Time for informal discussions with PBOR
team & to find out more about OR and the
PBOR scheme

Welcome to the first PBOR Seminar
▪ Operational Research (OR)
▪ a scientific discipline using methods such as
▪ data analysis, computer modelling
▪ to improve insight, efficiency and effectiveness
▪ used widely in public & private sectors
▪ PBOR
▪ matches experienced volunteers with charities facing difficult
challenges
▪ >10 years’ experience
▪ >1000 volunteers
▪ >100 satisfied third sector clients

Ian’s Third Sector experience
▪ Trustee:
▪ Dachshund
Health UK
▪ Non-Exec
Director:
▪ The Kennel Club
▪ Steering Group:
▪ Pro Bono OR
▪ Volunteer
© 2021 Copyright ISC Ltd.

“Without data, you’re just
another person with an
opinion”
Dr. W Edwards Deming

3 reasons you might want to use data
To describe what is happening
currently or historically
These are descriptive statistics
To forecast what might happen in
the future, based on past data
These are predictive analytic models
To make decisions in the face of
uncertainty
These are models to evaluate alternative
options

3 reasons you might want to use data
To describe what is happening
currently or historically
To forecast what might happen in
the future, based on past data
To make decisions in the face of
uncertainty

Decide what you want to
achieve, then decide what you
need to measure
Tip No. 1

What’s your biggest data challenge?
▪ Poll:
▪ We don’t know what data we should collect
▪ We don’t know how best to analyse our available data
▪ We don’t know how best to present our data analyses
▪ We don’t have the right tools or IT to make best use of data
▪ We don’t know how to use data to improve our performance
▪ Not enough people are interested in using data to improve our
performance

https://www.dataorchard.org.uk/resources/data-
maturity-framework
Data Orchard’s
Data Maturity
Framework

5 uses of data to support your Theory of Change
User data: Information on the characteristics of the people you are reaching.
Engagement data: Information on how service users are using your service,
and the extent to which they use it.
Feedback data: Information on what people think about the service.
Outcomes data: Information on the short term changes, benefits or assets
people have got from the service.
Impact data: Information on the long-term difference that has resulted from the
service.
More info: https://www.inspiringimpact.org/learn-to-measure/plan/decide-what-data-to-collect/

Data sources
• CRM systems (e.g. Salesforce, Zoho, Raiser’s Edge)
• Mailing lists (e.g. Mailchimp, Vertical Response)
User data
• Booking systems (e.g. Eventbrite, Tickettailor)
• Finance systems (e.g. Xero, Sage, Quickbooks)
Engagement data
• Survey systems (e.g. SurveyMonkey, Google/Microsoft Forms)
• Presentation tools (e.g. Mentimeter, Poll Everywhere)
Feedback data
• Survey systems
• Focus Groups, Interviews
Outcomes data
• Published statistics (e.g. ONS)
• Research projects/Impact Analysis
Impact data

Don’t forget - simple data collection tools
Checksheets/Tallysheets
Concentration Diagram
(John Snow Broad St. pump cholera 1854)
Feedback Emojis
Dot voting

Tip No. 2: The Golden Rules of Measurement
➢ No measurement without recording
➢ No recording without analysis
➢ No analysis without action

The “misleading” average
“There are lies, damned lies and statistics.”

Do you know what “average” means?
▪ The length of time (in days) taken to process 10 grant
applications was recorded
▪ What was the average time it took?
(from application received to completion)
Grant 1 Grant 2 Grant 3 Grant 4 Grant 5 Grant 6 Grant 7 Grant 8 Grant 9 Grant 10
6 6.5 7 7 7 7.5 8 8 10 13

Mean, Median and Mode
▪ Arithmetic Mean - the sum of values divided by the number of values, often called “the
average” (8.0 in our example)
▪ Median - the middle value when all the values are arranged in order [or the mean of the two
middle values if there is an even number in the list] (7.25 in our example)
▪ Mode - the most frequently occurring value (7 in our example)
If the Mean = the Median, there is a symmetrical distribution of the data
The Median and Mode are not affected by extreme values in a set of data, unlike the Mean
Grant 1 Grant 2 Grant 3 Grant 4 Grant 5 Grant 6 Grant 7 Grant 8 Grant 9 Grant 10
6 6.5 7 7 7 7.5 8 8 10 13

Tip No. 3: Look at the distribution of your data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
No.
of
cases
Time to repond (Days)
Time to respond to Grant Application (Days)
N = 33
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
No.
of
cases
Time to repond (Days)
Time to respond to Grant Application (Days)
N = 33
Mean Median Mean Median
3.6 3 4.7 5

Excel makes this easy…
https://www.excel-easy.com/examples/histogram.html

Pareto Analysis
The 80:20 Rule

Pareto Diagram
▪ A Pareto Diagram is a particular type of
Bar Chart
▪ Category data is presented in decreasing
size, from left to right and a Cumulative %
line is also drawn
▪ Good for: showing the 80:20 Rule –
highlighting the few categories that
account for the majority of performance or
issues
▪ Not good for: showing data
over time (but sometimes worth showing
“before” and “after”)

Separate the vital few from
the trivial many
Tip No. 4

Is weekly caseload increasing, decreasing or not changing?
What can you conclude
from this chart and its
source data?
Week
New
Cases Week
New
Cases
1 35 11 45
2 79 12 37
3 125 13 102
4 85 14 47
5 60 15 52
6 3 16 16
7 138 17 9
8 120 18 86
9 116 19 60
10 40 20 66

4 Week Moving Average
https://www.excel-easy.com/examples/moving-average.html

Tip No. 5: Use moving averages to smooth time-
series data

Tip No. 6: Think about what the data doesn’t say
▪ This is a well-known example
from WW2
▪ In order to decide where to add
extra protection to bombers,
the RAF recorded where
bullets had penetrated
returning aircraft
▪ Where would you add extra
protection?

Top tips to get you started
1. Decide what you want to achieve, then decide what you need
to measure
2. The Golden Rules of Measurement
3. Look at the distribution of your data
4. Separate the vital few from the trivial many
5. Use moving averages to smooth time-series data
6. Think about what the data doesn’t say

Pro Bono OR
▪ The Pro Bono OR scheme connects volunteer analysts with good causes. Analysts donate their
time and skills to help charities or other voluntary organisations facing difficult decisions or looking
for improvement.
▪ The OR Society wants more organisations to benefit from operational research (OR) and
recognises the great opportunity to bring together third sector organisations who would find OR
hugely beneficial, with analysts who are looking for ways of contributing to society over and above
their day-job.
▪ Since Pro Bono OR was founded in 2011, volunteer analysts have undertaken over 100 projects
helping third sector organisations achieve better insight, better decisions or better ways of working.
▪ We are able to provide a wide range of support in the following areas:
▪ Strategic planning/review
▪ Data analysis and insight
▪ Options appraisal
▪ Decision-making
▪ Process improvement
▪ Impact measurement
▪ Contact: amy.hughes@theorsociety.com

More PBOR webinars: all 1-2pm
Date Title Speaker
20/05/2021 Measuring the impact of charitable investment Jamie Douglas, DWP
10/06/2021 Using models to improve your efficiency and
effectiveness
Jane Parkin, Leeds University
01/07/2021 Simulation and pro bono Tom Stephenson, Naoum Tsioptsias, Simul8
15/07/2021 Strategic planning in uncertain times Ruth Kaufman, PBOR chair

Which of these topics would you like to see as a
future webinar?
▪ Poll:
• What data should we collect?
• How best to analyse available data
• How best to present results of data analyses
• How to use data to measure and improve performance
• How to use data to measure and improve impact
• Our favourite IT/software tools for analysing and presenting data

Find out more
www.theorsociety.com/probono
@ProBonoOR

Pro bono OR webinar - Making sense of data

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