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#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
What’s next? Retail 2025
Steve Laughlin
Vice President
Global Consumer Industry Manager
Retail and Consumer Products
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
There is lots of room for improvement
Source: 2016 IBM Customer Experience Index Survey (n=470 retailers)
52%
49% 49%
45% 44% 44% 44% 43% 43% 42% 42% 41% 40%
38% 38% 38%
36% 36%
34% 34%
32%
30% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
41%
Average
Performance
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
51%
49% 49%
45%
44% 44%
42% 42%
41%
40% 40%
39% 39%
38%
36%
35%
34% 34% 34%
33%
29% 29%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
3
UK
Sweden
Norway
France
Ireland
US
Australia
Switzerland
Austria
Germany
Canada
TheNetherlands
Brazil
India
Finland
Italy
Iberia
Chile
SouthKorea
Japan
Thailand
China
South Korea got an CEI average of 29%
41%
Denmark
South Korea is strong in Department Stores, but has need
to catch up in other segments
Electronics
Department Stores
General Goods
Home & DIY
Other Specialty
Apparel & Accessories
Grocery & Food
Drugstore/ Personal Care
41%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
49%
46%
44%
42%
42%
40%
37%
35%
14%
17%
1%
9%
8%
9%
4%
8%
75%
71%
69%
66%
76%
77%
71
%
70%
% Global % South Korea
47%
18%
22%
33%
43%
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
South Korea Performance in comparison to global
5
11
23
61
108
113
74
29
5
0
1
2
5
14
15
7
2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Less than 10%
10% to 20%
20% to 30%
30% to 40%
40% to 50%
50% to 60%
60% to 70%
70% to 80%
More than 80%
Leaders
Fast
Followers
3
4
4
4
5
2
0
1
1
2
2
3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Less than 10%
10% to 20%
20% to 30%
30% to 40%
40% to 50%
50% to 60%
60% to 70%
70% to 80%
More than 80%
Laggards
= Pure Players= Bricks & Clicks
Global Performance South Korea Performance
9% 4%
70% 56%
21% 40%
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Overall, we have significant room for aligning to how we
engage with customers
6
51%
42%
33% 30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Consistency Content Convenience Contextual
Convenience
 Offer hassle free returns,
maintenance and end of life
options
 Exploit digital payment and
engagement methods
 Provide immediacy through
flexible fulfilment
Content
 Improve transparency
 Provide pertinent information
for making informed decisions
 Convert associates to brand
advocates
 Employ rich media
Contextual
 Recognize individuals and their
shopping intent
 Personalize interactions
 Provide relevant offers based on
customer preferences & history
 Foster customer as brand
advocates
Key Opportunity Areas
Consistency
 Connect and harmonize
engagement programs
 Integrate into unified channel
systems
 Incorporate new consumer
technologies (wearables)
 Sell more than product
41%
average
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
93%
94%
89%
81%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Consistency
Contextual
Content
Convenience
South Korea Performance in 4C’s
19%
31%
25%
39%
33%
42%
30%
51%
% %
South Korea
Average Global
0%
0%
0%
0%
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
These megatrends continue to drive change in
major and emerging markets
. Data
Devices Rule Data Science Rocks Destruction & Mayhem
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Rethink operating models in the cognitive era
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
There are no channels
Customers become even more insistent that they
will be known and understood - no matter how, when
or where they engage
• Consistent, relevant and responsive
• Data-driven
• Enabled by cognitive computing
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Stores become smart, social and connected
… teeming with IoT devices
Stores will be a competitive differentiator in the
battle for consumers
• Smaller, flexible, modular designs
• Entertaining and experiential
• Rented, agile infrastructure
• Multi-purpose
• Showrooms
• Distribution centers
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Associates are elevated to concierge status
Store associates are secret weapon
in delivering the brand promise
• Engaged brand advocates
• Enabled and educated
• Empowered by cognitive insights
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Transform supply chain design
70% customer direct fulfillment
requirement from a low of 15%
in 2015
• Traditional relationships transformed
• Supply chain is impacted by Uberization or local
on-demand delivery
• Last mile is solved
• Supply chains become (secure) ecosystems
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Dynamically curate range
New ways to create differentiated
assortment
• Software companies and artists are the new product designers
• Digital platforms power collaboration
• Uber-personalization
• Hyper-localization
• Crowd-sourcing becomes common
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Tell relevant stories
Customer needs, wants and aspirations can be
forecast with 80% accuracy
• Social insights inform decisions in real-time
• Local events automated, at scale
• Promotions, offers and engagement delivered in context
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Rethink investment models
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Emerging markets invest in innovation …
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
China
Korea
Germany
Japan
USA
UK
Canada
Change in Business Expenditures on R&D 2009-2013
By 2007 just 6% of publically
traded companies were
publishing research in
scientific journals, down from
two-thirds from 1980
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
And so do disruptors
Experiments and More Experiments
We have our own internal
experimentation platform called “Weblab
”that we use to evaluate improvements to
our websites and products. In 2013, we
ran 1,976 Weblabs worldwide, up from
1,092 in 2012, and 546 in 2011.
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
Enter the cognitive era – start your journey by
becoming more relevant and responsive
There is only one channel.
The consumer is the channel.
Differentiation AgilityEngagement
Cognitive systems drive
differentiated experience in
stores, engagement, and
throughout the value chain.
Retailers will be forced to
radically optimize non-
selling functions to
fund innovation.
#IBMRetail @SPLaughlin
What’s next? Retail 2025
Steve Laughlin
Vice President
Global Consumer Industry Manager
Retail and Consumer Products

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The Future of Retail

  • 1. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin What’s next? Retail 2025 Steve Laughlin Vice President Global Consumer Industry Manager Retail and Consumer Products
  • 2. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin There is lots of room for improvement Source: 2016 IBM Customer Experience Index Survey (n=470 retailers) 52% 49% 49% 45% 44% 44% 44% 43% 43% 42% 42% 41% 40% 38% 38% 38% 36% 36% 34% 34% 32% 30% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 41% Average Performance
  • 3. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin 51% 49% 49% 45% 44% 44% 42% 42% 41% 40% 40% 39% 39% 38% 36% 35% 34% 34% 34% 33% 29% 29% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 3 UK Sweden Norway France Ireland US Australia Switzerland Austria Germany Canada TheNetherlands Brazil India Finland Italy Iberia Chile SouthKorea Japan Thailand China South Korea got an CEI average of 29% 41% Denmark
  • 4. South Korea is strong in Department Stores, but has need to catch up in other segments Electronics Department Stores General Goods Home & DIY Other Specialty Apparel & Accessories Grocery & Food Drugstore/ Personal Care 41% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 49% 46% 44% 42% 42% 40% 37% 35% 14% 17% 1% 9% 8% 9% 4% 8% 75% 71% 69% 66% 76% 77% 71 % 70% % Global % South Korea 47% 18% 22% 33% 43%
  • 5. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin South Korea Performance in comparison to global 5 11 23 61 108 113 74 29 5 0 1 2 5 14 15 7 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Less than 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60% 60% to 70% 70% to 80% More than 80% Leaders Fast Followers 3 4 4 4 5 2 0 1 1 2 2 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Less than 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 30% 30% to 40% 40% to 50% 50% to 60% 60% to 70% 70% to 80% More than 80% Laggards = Pure Players= Bricks & Clicks Global Performance South Korea Performance 9% 4% 70% 56% 21% 40%
  • 6. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Overall, we have significant room for aligning to how we engage with customers 6 51% 42% 33% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Consistency Content Convenience Contextual Convenience  Offer hassle free returns, maintenance and end of life options  Exploit digital payment and engagement methods  Provide immediacy through flexible fulfilment Content  Improve transparency  Provide pertinent information for making informed decisions  Convert associates to brand advocates  Employ rich media Contextual  Recognize individuals and their shopping intent  Personalize interactions  Provide relevant offers based on customer preferences & history  Foster customer as brand advocates Key Opportunity Areas Consistency  Connect and harmonize engagement programs  Integrate into unified channel systems  Incorporate new consumer technologies (wearables)  Sell more than product 41% average
  • 7. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin 93% 94% 89% 81% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Consistency Contextual Content Convenience South Korea Performance in 4C’s 19% 31% 25% 39% 33% 42% 30% 51% % % South Korea Average Global 0% 0% 0% 0%
  • 8. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin These megatrends continue to drive change in major and emerging markets . Data Devices Rule Data Science Rocks Destruction & Mayhem
  • 9. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Rethink operating models in the cognitive era
  • 10. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin There are no channels Customers become even more insistent that they will be known and understood - no matter how, when or where they engage • Consistent, relevant and responsive • Data-driven • Enabled by cognitive computing
  • 11. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Stores become smart, social and connected … teeming with IoT devices Stores will be a competitive differentiator in the battle for consumers • Smaller, flexible, modular designs • Entertaining and experiential • Rented, agile infrastructure • Multi-purpose • Showrooms • Distribution centers
  • 12. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Associates are elevated to concierge status Store associates are secret weapon in delivering the brand promise • Engaged brand advocates • Enabled and educated • Empowered by cognitive insights
  • 13. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Transform supply chain design 70% customer direct fulfillment requirement from a low of 15% in 2015 • Traditional relationships transformed • Supply chain is impacted by Uberization or local on-demand delivery • Last mile is solved • Supply chains become (secure) ecosystems
  • 14. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Dynamically curate range New ways to create differentiated assortment • Software companies and artists are the new product designers • Digital platforms power collaboration • Uber-personalization • Hyper-localization • Crowd-sourcing becomes common
  • 15. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Tell relevant stories Customer needs, wants and aspirations can be forecast with 80% accuracy • Social insights inform decisions in real-time • Local events automated, at scale • Promotions, offers and engagement delivered in context
  • 17. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Emerging markets invest in innovation … -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% China Korea Germany Japan USA UK Canada Change in Business Expenditures on R&D 2009-2013 By 2007 just 6% of publically traded companies were publishing research in scientific journals, down from two-thirds from 1980
  • 18. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin And so do disruptors Experiments and More Experiments We have our own internal experimentation platform called “Weblab ”that we use to evaluate improvements to our websites and products. In 2013, we ran 1,976 Weblabs worldwide, up from 1,092 in 2012, and 546 in 2011.
  • 19. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin Enter the cognitive era – start your journey by becoming more relevant and responsive There is only one channel. The consumer is the channel. Differentiation AgilityEngagement Cognitive systems drive differentiated experience in stores, engagement, and throughout the value chain. Retailers will be forced to radically optimize non- selling functions to fund innovation.
  • 20. #IBMRetail @SPLaughlin What’s next? Retail 2025 Steve Laughlin Vice President Global Consumer Industry Manager Retail and Consumer Products

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. I want to pose a question to you this morning -- What is retail going to look like in 2025? Now, obviously, I don't want to be audacious enough to claim to know exactly what retail is going to be like ten years down the road. After all, ten years prior to today, the "experts" of the day were suggesting that brick-and-mortar stores would be all but extinct by now; however, much to the chagrin of those experts and much to the advantage of many of you in the room today, that, in fact, didn't happen. We, in fact, still have storefronts. We still have non-robot customer service specialists. We still pay the bills to keep the lights on. However, in today's world of limitless consumer data and constant information flow, it'd be our folly as retailers if we didn't take time to look ten years down the road and see how our brick-and-mortar stores could be impacted by the trends that we are beginning to experience in the market today. That's why we're here this morning -- to take a look at the trends of today and see how they may affect our industry tomorrow. Well... Ten years from tomorrow. My name is Steve Laughlin -- Vice President of Global Retail and Consumer Products Industries for IBM -- and we're about to take a look at Retail in 2025.
  2. As you can see, there is a lot of room for improvement. Of the countries polled, on a scale from 1 being the least satisfied to 100 being the most satisfied, retailers scored a global average of 41 percent. Now, 41 percent isn't that terrible compared to, say, 30 percent or 20 percent, but if I remember correctly from grade school, a 41 is still a failing grade. As you'll see from our chart, Great Britain is leading the pack in regard to customer retail satisfaction with a 52 percent and is closely followed by Sweden, Norway, Australia and some others. Several Asian countries such as South Korea, japan and China scored the lowest with scores of 34 percent, 32 percent and 29 percent respectively. Without going into much detail, consumers globally actually named Kohls as a store that consistently delivers an exemplary retail experience. So, well done, Kohls. Now, I think we, as retailers, can do better than 41 percent. I think, historically, we have done better than 41 percent, but recent changes in technology and innovation have raised the bar on consumer satisfaction, lowering this CEI average for many of our businesses that haven't yet adjusted to the changing winds. That's how we beat the 41 percent. We observe the trends, we adjust the practices and we raise the bar inside of our retail stores for customer satisfaction. Hopefully today is a launch pad for many of you who are looking to do just that.
  3. The top ten Latin American CEI scorers were also spread across a majority of retail segments. However the highest-placed LATAM retailer only managed to achieve 92nd in the global ranking, indicating that there is much CEI progress to be made in both Brazil & Chile. Asia Pacific’s top ten scorers were less widely spread across retail segments but the highest-placed retailer came in 20th in the global ranking. Overall Asia Pacific retailers scored more highly in the CEI ranking that their LATAM counterparts signifying further progress along the omnichannel maturity spectrum. Australia and Japan – Transitioning markets between Emerging and Mature Simplification – Geographic classification We have traditionally looked at European and US markets as a baseline for what good looks like CEI however showed that the RoW has some bright spot retailers and innovative practices that exceed many retailers in the US and European markets. UK – geographically constrained & very high competition and high level of innovation (population density etc.) Underlying theme – as competition increases you got to use more data, technology and innovative practices.
  4. GLOBAL PERFORMANCE: Majority of retailers (70%) are Fast Followers. This provides an opportunity for disruptors to innovate and take market share by identifying and exceeding customer expectations. EMERGING Markets: Pure play and multinational retailers are pressurizing local retailers in their home markets. The new arrivals are driving new, higher standards & customer expectations and so are ahead on CEI scores. In-country retailers will have to up their game or leverage local knowledge to combat the pure player or multi-national competitors Definition Leaders: scoring above 60% across all criteria in the CEI analysis. The real innovators for omnichannel. Fast Followers: scoring between 30 and 60% across all criteria in the CEI analysis. Defined by trying to learn from innovators and make select strategic investments. Laggards: scoring less than 30% in the CEI survey. Defined by competing in the market based on factors like price or assortment exclusivity
  5. Electronics and Department Stores are the best performing retail sectors. Mature markets in North America and Europe perform more strongly than Emerging markets. Average performance across all 4Cs was only 39%. Retailers overall have significant opportunities for improvement.
  6. GLOBAL PERFORMANCE: Majority of retailers (70%) are Fast Followers. This provides an opportunity for disruptors to innovate and take market share by identifying and exceeding customer expectations. EMERGING Markets: Pure play and multinational retailers are pressurizing local retailers in their home markets. The new arrivals are driving new, higher standards & customer expectations and so are ahead on CEI scores. In-country retailers will have to up their game or leverage local knowledge to combat the pure player or multi-national competitors Definition Leaders: scoring above 60% across all criteria in the CEI analysis. The real innovators for omnichannel. Fast Followers: scoring between 30 and 60% across all criteria in the CEI analysis. Defined by trying to learn from innovators and make select strategic investments. Laggards: scoring less than 30% in the CEI survey. Defined by competing in the market based on factors like price or assortment exclusivity
  7. So, let's dive in. What are the trends that seem to be dominating the retail industry as we know it? What are the common themes that our brick-and-mortar retail establishments need to consider in order to flourish and frankly, for many of us in this room today, to survive. We at IBM think there are three megatrends that need to be considered that seem to be vital to retail success in both major and emerging markets: the emergence and takeover of personal computing devices, the unending wealth of consumer data at our fingertips and, although it may sound overdramatic, the rise of destruction and mayhem. We can unpack that one last. First, the device takeover. Since the emergence of the smartphone in the early 2000s, personal, portable technology has skyrocketed. Smartphones keep getting... well... smarter. And along with advancement in smartphone technology comes lower prices. The world is more connected than ever. Now, a farmer in rural western China can have tech in his left pants pocket (or even on his wrist) that is more advanced than a room-sized mainframe computer of the 1980s. We have moved from a Mobile First society to a Mobile ONLY society. Everyone is engaged and everything is connected. Data, devices, people and processes have become intertwined in the Internet of Things (IoT). Physical and digital worlds have converged, which opens up a realm of seemingly endless possibilities for retailers and how we as retailers connect with our customers on a daily basis -- not just when they're in our store. Closely connected to the rise of devices has been the rise of data science. Interconnectivity has been a byproduct of mobile devices, and data has been a byproduct of interconnectivity. Because everything is connected, everything is recorded. The difference between the retail winners and the retail losers is what they do with this wealth of data. Data is truly king. Having the ability to connect, manage, secure, analyze and act on the wide set of raw, unstructured data that is most likely in your possession right now is what will separate the wheat from the chaff. Consumers needs, wants and aspirations are in constant flux. We must be able to predict demand and act -- must be able to tailor engagement, assortment, stores and services to our customers to deliver a differentiated experience. Lastly, we must look at the rise of destruction and mayhem. Again, this may sound overdramatic, but today's constant attack of industry "disruptors" and "ankle biters" is a very real issue that we must be constantly aware of. Every day, a new startup with an experiential business model threatens to put our businesses at risk. Just take a look at the effect that services like Uber and Lyft have had on the traditional taxi industry. Many of you in this room have probably even felt the effects of these "disruptors" from companies like Amazon or Overstock. There is a degree of healthy fear that we must have when thinking about these "disruptors." The winners in the industry today are experimenting quickly, finding the right formula and fostering an ecosystem to scale, compete and expand globally. We, as retailers, must be able to do the same.
  8. So how do we prepare for the changing tides? How, in light of constant change, do we succeed in the present while preparing for the future? How do we prepare for disruption? As retailers, we need to step back from our day-to-day grind and rethink how we operate. For many of you, you need to have a radical shift in your business model. For others of you, you may need to invest in innovation. In order to survive, we must all harness the power of new technologies to engage our customers and differentiate ourselves from our current and future competition. I want to take the last portion of our time together and discuss some ideas and practical first steps that you can take as retailers to rethink how you operate and prepare for conducting retail operations in 2025. Our desire at IBM is that brick-and-mortar stores will still be the way of the future, and in order for that to happen, we want you to take the suggestions on the next few slides and put them into practice so that you can survive and thrive doing what you're passionate about.
  9. First, we must embrace the idea that there are no more channels. Well, there is one channel -- the customer. As you've seen from the research that we presented earlier in this presentation, today's customer has become even more insistent that they should be understood. People have an innate desire to be known -- even by the retailers that they buy goods from. They want a tailor-made experience in every aspect of engagement, at all touchpoints. Retailers must be consistent, relevant and responsive and, in order to do this, must be data-driven and empowered by cognitive computing. In brick-and-mortar retail, there is a unique logistical challenge in trying to tailor your in-store experience to each individual customer.
  10. ... Which leads into our next step in creating a retail experience that will thrive in 2025. Once you've adopted the idea that the customer is the channel, the next practical step is to develop your in-store experience to cater to the customer. We must create smart, social, connected stores that are teeming with Internet of Things devices. This innovation of your store will be a competitive differentiator in the battle for consumers. If you make your store experience fun and unique, you'll continue to attract current and new customers and lure them away from the temptation of online shopping. And if you make it really fun and really unique, these customers will tell their friends via their devices. That's when growth really begins. So what does this all look like? Well, the fact remains -- it's inherently easier for a website to tailor a unique experience to a consumer than a physical location. However, the fact also remains that customers enjoy brick-and-mortar retail. The emergence of big data and cognitive computing has opened the door to creating unique experiences with your customers that could be game-changers for your company. All you need to do is utilize the tools that are available to you, step back and think about ways to innovate. ((GAMESTOP EXAMPLE))
  11. A third way to enhance your retail experience is to elevate your store associates to concierge status. The sad truth about store associates is that most of the store associates who walk the floor of your retail establishment every day are paid at the same rate as your warehouse staff. Now, I'm not trying to tell you how to compensate your employees -- you have entire finance departments for that. However, I think there's something to be said about how we treat our store associates. Our store associates are our brand advocates -- our touchpoints with our customers. We must educate them on our company and enable them to treat our customers like kings and queens. If our associates are on board with our company, our brand and our company's promise, they're more likely reciprocate that type of enthusiasm to paying customers who can, in turn, become brand advocates for us. Our store associates, educated on our company and empowered with cognitive insights about our customers, can work to create a retail environment for our customers that will leave them wanting more. Again, people desire to be known, and our very own store associates can help foster that relationship between customer and company.
  12. Examples – Nordstrom, This may be an ecosystem, not an empire
  13. Best practice -
  14. Kroger – local events Allergy Starbucks – coffee promotion
  15. So how do we prepare for the changing tides? How, in light of constant change, do we succeed in the present while preparing for the future? How do we prepare for disruption? As retailers, we need to step back from our day-to-day grind and rethink how we operate. For many of you, you need to have a radical shift in your business model. For others of you, you may need to invest in innovation. In order to survive, we must all harness the power of new technologies to engage our customers and differentiate ourselves from our current and future competition. I want to take the last portion of our time together and discuss some ideas and practical first steps that you can take as retailers to rethink how you operate and prepare for conducting retail operations in 2025. Our desire at IBM is that brick-and-mortar stores will still be the way of the future, and in order for that to happen, we want you to take the suggestions on the next few slides and put them into practice so that you can survive and thrive doing what you're passionate about.
  16. So here’s how to get started!
  17. I want to pose a question to you this morning -- What is retail going to look like in 2025? Now, obviously, I don't want to be audacious enough to claim to know exactly what retail is going to be like ten years down the road. After all, ten years prior to today, the "experts" of the day were suggesting that brick-and-mortar stores would be all but extinct by now; however, much to the chagrin of those experts and much to the advantage of many of you in the room today, that, in fact, didn't happen. We, in fact, still have storefronts. We still have non-robot customer service specialists. We still pay the bills to keep the lights on. However, in today's world of limitless consumer data and constant information flow, it'd be our folly as retailers if we didn't take time to look ten years down the road and see how our brick-and-mortar stores could be impacted by the trends that we are beginning to experience in the market today. That's why we're here this morning -- to take a look at the trends of today and see how they may affect our industry tomorrow. Well... Ten years from tomorrow. My name is Steve Laughlin -- Vice President of Global Retail and Consumer Products Industries for IBM -- and we're about to take a look at Retail in 2025.