1. 1Challenge the future
Backcasting for 100% Renewables in
Scotland in 2030:
Woking sessions for scenarios
Jaco Quist, j.n.quist@tudelft.nl
Tony Craig, tony.craig@hutton.ac.uk
Gary Polhil, gary.polhill@hutton.ac.uk

2. 2Challenge the future
Scenarios, Rooms, People
1. UK Centric scenario
• Plenary Room
• Vision Lead Iain Staffell
• Facilitator Gary Polhil
2. Scotland Alone scenario
• Breakout Room
• Vision Lead Stewart Haseldine,
• Facilitator Tony Craig
3. Local Energy Autarky scenario
• Pod Room
• Vision Lead Andrew Peacock
• Facilitator Jaco Quist

3. 3Challenge the future
Step 1 Strategic Problem orientation Analysis
Step 2 Normative future image Vision
Step 3 Backcasting What is necessary?
Step 4 Elaboration, analysis Action agenda
Step 5 Embedding, ‘implementation’ Follow-up
Methods: I Analysis, II Design, III Interaction, IV Management
Demands: i Normative, ii Process, iii Knowledge
Backcasting: methodological framework

4. 4Challenge the future
4
October 4, 2011 4
20502000 TIME
Vision of
the future
S
T
E
P
S
Backcasting: step by step
1. SPO
2. Make
vision
3. BC
4. Pathway &
Agenda
5. Embedding &
Implementatio
n

5. 5Challenge the future
Program (Round 1)
• 11.30 – 13.00 First round of visioning & backcasting
• Vision Lead Introduction (15 minutes)
• What are major parts/elements of vision (Technological, Cultural,
Structural)? (15 mins)
• Making teams of 5 people
• What goals & targets to be achieved in 2030? (15 mins)
• Backcasting (in groups of 4-5) (12.15-13.00 hr)
• What changes are necessary (C, S, T)?
• How can these changes be achieved?
• Who (which stakeholders) are needed?
• What are drivers & barriers & how can be dealt with these?
Backcasting Report Back (15 minutes)

6. 6Challenge the future
What are major parts of vision? (STEP 2)
Type of element/part (by part of
system)
Elements/parts for vision
Technological elements/parts
(think along supply chain)
Cultural-Behavioural elements/parts
Structural-Institutional elements/parts
(this is about power & governance &
who is in charge)
(think along supply chain and how it is
organised)

7. 7Challenge the future
Some goals & targets (STEP 2)
Type of goal/targets Goals/target
Technological goals/targets (including
efficiency)
-
e.g. energy saving (%), increase in energy
efficiency (%)
adoption share of certain technologies (%)
Cultural-Behavioural goals/targets
(including demand side reduction
-
e.g. Reduction of energy consumption(%)
e.g. raise in awareness, shift to sustainable
behaviour
Structural-Institutional goals/targets
(including structural change)
e.g changes in energy system (shift to
public utilities or community owned
(prosumers)
Other kinds of goals/targets

8. 8Challenge the future
100% renewables 2030
3 Subgroups for 3 visions
1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)?
2. How can these changes be achieved?
3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed?
4. What are drivers and barriers for this System
Innovation?
Adjusting future vision allowed!
Today: Scotland backcasting excersise
Future Vision

9. 9Challenge the future
Backcasting analysis (STEP 3)
WHAT (change
elements)
HOW (activities) WHO (stakeholders)
Technological Changes
Cultural-Behav. Changes
Structural-Instit. Changes

10. 10Challenge the future
Program (2)
• 14.00 – 15.30 Scenario Elaboration for 3 visions in teams of 4/5
• Defining Pathways (2015-2020-2030) (40 minutes)
• What activities are needed in government domain (over time)?
• What activities are needed in business-utilities domain (over time)?
• What activities are needed in research-knowledge domain?
• What activities are needed in civil society-public interest domain?
• What is a good follow-up agenda and next steps?
• Exchange within one vision group (25 minutes)
• Preparing plenary presentations (25 minutes)

11. 11Challenge the future
Program (2A) – Step 4
• Defining Pathways (current-2020-2030) (40 minutes)
• you can get back to earlier work (but not too long)
• What activities needed in government domain (over time)?
• What activities needed in business-utilities domain (over time)?
• What activities needed in research-knowledge domain?
• What activities needed in civil society-public interest domain?
• What is a good follow-up agenda and next steps?

12. 12Challenge the future
Activities & results NOW Activities & results 2020 Activities & results 2030
Government-policy domain
Government Now Government till 2020 Government till 2030
R&D & knowledge domain (including technology development)
R&D Now R&D till 2020 R&D till 2030
Business-Industry-Producers-Utilties Domain
Production Now Production till 2020 Production till 2030
Public Interest-Citizens-Consumption Domain
Citizens-NGO Now Citizens-NGO till 2020 Citizens-NGO till 2030

13. 13Challenge the future
Program (2B)
• Volunteers for presenting the scenario results
• Who is willing to present the results (1-2 persons)?
• 14.40 – 15.05 Exchange within one vision group (25 minutes)
• 15.05 – 15.30 Preparing plenary presentations (25 minutes)

14. 14Challenge the future
THANK YOU VERY MUCH

15. 15Challenge the future
Criteria for this Scenario
• 100% Renewable (also a goal)
• Affordability?
• Energy security?

16. 16Challenge the future
Program (3)
• 16.00 – 17.15 Plenary Reporting & Discussion
• 16.00-16.20 Stand alone Scottish Network Scenario
• 16.20-16.40 Local Energy Autarky Scenario
• 16.40-17.00 UK Centric Scenario
• Final Discussion & Next Steps (17.00-17.15)
• 17.15 – 18.30 Reception and Networking

17. 17Challenge the future
PESTELED trends & developments
• What are major trends & developments for the Energy
System in Scotland & which ones need to we change?
• Political trends & decelopments
• Economic trends & developments
• Socio-cultural trends & developments
• Technological trends & developments
• Ecological-Environmental trends & developments
• Legal-Instiutional trends & developments
• Ethical trends & developments
• Demographic trends & developments

18. 18Challenge the future
(types of) trends for scenario Expected
Development
(high-medium-
low)
Outcome
External/
Accepted/
Changed
Political
e.g. extent of autonomy/independence for Scotland
Etc
Economic
E.g, expected growth (OR NOT)
Shift away from growth paradigm
Expected increase or decrease in energy &
electricity demand
Etc
Socio-cultural
Ongoing individualization or increasing community
orientation
Growing environmental awareness (OR NOT)
Sustainability through increased eco-efficiency or
through changed behavior at demand side.
Increasing culture of moderation & austerity OR
NOT
Etc.
Technological
High-tech or low-tech
Further development & use of smart grids
Etc.

19. 19Challenge the future
(types of) trends for scenario Expected
Development
(high-medium-
low)
Outcome
External/
Accepted/
Changed
Ecological
(Increasing) kinds of Climate Change impacts
in Scotland
Etc.
Legal-Regulatory-Institutional
Electricity through public utility, market
orientation (fully private firms), or community
& bottom-up.
Increase in carbon trading or not.
Personal carbon limits/taxes.
Etc.
Ethical
Growing inequality or not
Increasing fuel poverty (OR NOT)
Etc.
Demographic
Population growth
Extent of urbanization
Etc.