2. Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
• India 5th largest economy
in 2022
• Nominal GDP expected to
be ~$3.5 Tn by FY23 end
Avg. monthly gross GST
collection rose to 1.49 Lk. Cr.
in current fiscal from 1.24 in
FY22
National Infrastructure
Pipeline (NIP) has expanded
to 9,000 projects from 6,835
projected earlier
Goods & Services exports for
9MFY23 up 16% compared
to same period
in 2021-22
Central Govt. capex rose by
63% y-o-y during 8MFY23
Gross Tax Revenue registered
15.5% y-o-y growth from
Apr-Nov 2022
TAX REVENUE
CAPEX
EXPORTS
INDIA HIGHLIGHTS
GST
INFRASTRUCTURE
02
Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Capex – Capital Expenditure, GST – Goods & Services Tax, y-o-y – year on year
3. Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. PMAY – Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna, JJM – Jal Jeevan Mission, DDU – GKY - Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana, PMUY
- Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, AB-JAY - Ayushman Bharat – Pradhan Mantri Jan AarogyaYojana, PMGKSY - Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, PM-SHRI - Pradhan Mantri Schools for Rising
India, PMSBY - Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, PM-SYM - radhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-dhan, MGNREGS - Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, NEP – National
Education Policy
Book of Multifaceted initiatives to improve the ecosystem of ‘Quality of Life’
03
2.1 Cr houses constructed
under PMAY
2.9 Cr Rural households
electrified under Saubhagya
11 Cr tap water connections
under JJM
13 Lakh candidate trained
under DDU- GKY
11 Cr LPG connections provided
under PMUY
22 Cr AB-JAY beneficiaries
NEP to revolutionize education,
14500 PM-SHRI schools to be set
up
30 Cr enrolments in PMSBY, 49
Lakh enrolments in PM-SYM
6.5 Cr households offered MGNREGS
work in FY 23
7.2 Lakh km roads constructed since
2000 under PMGKSY
4. Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey. Revex - Revenue Expenditure, Capex – Capital Expenditure. Revex excludes interest payments & subsidies, PA – Provisional Actual, BE – Budget
Estimates, EPFO – Employees' Provident Fund Organisation
04
Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
WALKING THE TIGHTROPE GRACEFULLY –
The Govt. is well on track to achieve its Fiscal Deficit target while simultaneously increasing its
Capital Expenditure which has a major multiplier effect on economy
104.6
46.2
58.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-Nov (5Y Avg) Apr-Nov 21 Apr-Nov 22
Fiscal Deficit as % of Budget Estimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 PA FY23 BE
Revenue to Capital Expenditure Ratio
5. Source - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey
05
Highlights of Economic Survey (2023)
GROWTH MAGNETS THIS DECADE (2023-2030)
Healthy Financial System
(Financials & Corporate
Sector)
Global supply chain
diversification
De-regulation
Digitalization led
Formalization
New age
reforms
6. Source: Morgan Stanley and Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, GNPL – Gross Non Performing Loans, E –
Estimates
06
Decoding the Growth Magnets
HEALTHY FINANCIAL SYSTEM
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
F2012
F2013
F2014
F2015
F2016
F2017
F2018
F2019
F2020
F2021
F2022
GNPLs Restructured Loans
Banks have repaired their Balance Sheets in last few years
12.4
7.5
62
55
48
49
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
F2007
F2008
F2009
F2010
F2011
F2012
F2013
F2014
F2015
F2016
F2017
F2018
F2019
F2020
F2021
F2022
F2023E
F2024E
Corporate Debt, % of GDP
7. Source: https://www.indiabudget.gov.in. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. UPI – Unified Payments Interface. EPFO- Employees’ Provident Fund Organization
07
Decoding the Growth Magnets
DIGITALIZATION LED FORMALIZATION
8.8
13.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Apr-Nov 21 Apr-Nov 22
EPFO Net avg. monthly subscribers (Lakhs)
Rise in Payroll Addition
1
6
18
34
72
126
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
UPI Transactions (in Lakh Crs)
Rise in Digital Payments
8. Source: OECD and Morgan Stanley & UBS. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation an d ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any
future position in this sector(s)/stock(s).
08
Decoding the Growth Magnets
GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DIVERSIFICATION (CHINA+1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Singapore
South
Korea
Taiwan
China
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
Manufacturing Wage(US$/hr)
2019 2020 2021
Lowest Labour Costs makes
‘Manufacturing in India’
favourable
Companies
Investment
Time Period
(USD Bn)
Samsung, Foxconn, Lava,
Wistron & Pegatron
5.6 FY 21-26
Siemens Healthcare, Integris
Healthcare, Poly Medicure
0.5
FY 21-28
Nokia , Ciena, Flextronics 1.7 FY 22-26
Nestle, Hindustan Unilever Ltd, 1.5 FY 22-27
Daikin Group, Panasonic 0.9 FY 22-26
Key Announcements by Global Companies to invest in India
9. Source – NSSO, Income Tax data, Census, Spark Capital Research, Morgan Stanley. *15% for Manufacturing Companies, ARC – Asset Reconstruction Company
09
Decoding the Growth Magnets
NEW AGE REFORMS
PRODUCTION LINKED INCENTIVE LAND REFORMS
PM GATI SHAKTI
TAXATION REFORMS
To boost domestic manufacturing
INSOLVENCY & BANKRUPTCY CODE
Provides for insolvency resolution in time
bound manner
NATIONAL ASSET
RECONSTRUCTION CO. LTD
A ‘bad bank’ to aggregate & acquire stressed loans
Creation of Land banks to make land
easily identifiable for industrial
projects
Allocation of Rs. 100 Tn. to expedite
the projects of National Infrastructure
Pipeline
Cut in Corporate Tax rates to 22%*,
introduction of GST & faceless tax
assessment
10. 10
Union Budget 2023-24 – Key Announcements
CAPEX
• Steep rise in
capex outlay to
Rs. 10 Tn
(+33% y-o-y)
• This coupled with
Grants-in-Aid to
states take
‘Effective Capex’
to 4.5% of GDP
RAILWAYS
Highest ever
railway capital
outlay at Rs 2.40tn
AUTOMOBILES
AFFORDABLE
HOUSING
Outlay for Pradhan
Mantri Awas
Yojana enhanced
for 2nd consecutive
year by 66% to Rs.
790 Bn
PERSONAL
TAX*
EASE OF DOING
BUSINESS
To enhance ease of
doing business,
39000 compliances
reduced and 3,400
legal provision
decriminalized
• The Govt. plans
to allocate funds
to replace old
Govt. vehicles
• Budget focus
more on the EV
segment
• Rebate under section
87A of Income Tax
Act, 1961 hiked from
Rs. 5 lakh to Rs. 7
lakh under new tax
regime
• Restructuring of tax
slabs under new tax
regime
• Highest surcharge
reduced from 37% to
25% in new tax
regime
Source – www.indiabudget.gov.in. *Kindly consult tax advisor for further details. Capex – Capital Expenditure, GDP – Gross Domestic Product. EV – Electric Vehicle, y-o-y is year on year
11. 11
Direct Tax Announcements
• Extending benefits of
standard deduction
to new tax regime for
salaries class &
pensioners
• Increasing tax
exemption limit of Rs.
25 lakh on leave
encashment on
retirement for non-
govt salaried
employees
Surcharge rate on
income above Rs. 5 Cr
to be reduced from
37% to 25% under
new tax regime
Income limit for rebate of
income tax increased from Rs.
5 lakh to 7 lakh in the new tax
regime
Multiple changes were proposed under the new tax regime
30%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
>15
12-15
9-12
6-9
3-6
0-3
Tax Rate
Income
Levels
Income Level and Tax Rate for
New Tax Regime
Source – www.indiabudget.gov.in. Kindly consult tax advisor for further details
12. 12
Key Announcements & Sector Impact
Source – www.indiabudget.gov.in. y-o-y – year on year, FAME - Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles, EV – Electric Vehicle, MNREGA - Mahatma Gandhi National
Rural Employment Guarantee Act, ULIP - Unit Linked Insurance Plan. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund
may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s).
Infrastructure
• 33% y-o-y rise in capex outlay positive
• Defence outlay is up 8% y-o-y
• Road capex outlay +25% & railways outlay
+15% y-o-y respectively
Automobiles
• FAME 2 (incentives for EV) allocation of
Rs. 51.72 Bn vs Rs. 29.08 Bn last year
• Allocation for Automobiles and Auto
Components has been increased from Rs.
0.11 Bn to Rs. 6.04 Bn
Real Estate
• 66% higher allocation to Pradhan Mantri
Awas Yojana (PMAY) to Rs. 790 Bn
• Capping the benefit of Capital Gains tax
offsets via purchase of property >10 Crs a
minor negative
Cement
• Overall higher allocation for affordable
housing (PMAY) & Capex positive
• Minor negative - MNREGA allocation
down by 33% YoY at Rs. 600 Bn
Consumer Staples
• <2% effective marginal tax hike on
cigarettes post 2 years of stagnant tax
structure is a positive
Insurance
• Aggregate of premium for life insurance
policies (ex. ULIP) issued on or after 1st
April 2023 if >5 Lakhs, income will be
taxed at marginal tax rate
13. 13
Our Equity Outlook
• Indian equity market has underperformed Global and Asian Markets in the last few months*
• Also, in the last few weeks, we have seen good correction, resulting in moderation of premium
• However, we believe there is further head-room for valuations to normalize compared to long-
term average and relative to Emerging & Developed Market peers
• We continue to remain optimistic on long term economic prospects of India albeit with a cautious
view for near term as valuations are not cheap
• Hence, in sync with our Annual Outlook for 2023 (read here), we continue to recommend the ‘SAFE’
Investment Approach
• ‘S’ – Recommend Freedom SIP / Booster STP in Equity Schemes
• ‘A’ – Expect volatility, recommend asset allocation across asset classes / geographies
• ‘F’ – Debt schemes attractive post rate hikes
• ‘E’ – Recommend Equity Arbitrage / Equity Savings category for parking surplus funds
*Source – Value Research. SAFE is an acronym used for Investment Approach for 2023 and does not in any manner indicate safety or less risk
14. 14
Our Fixed Income Outlook
• The Union Budget was an extension to previous two budgets which was presented post the pandemic
• Growth has normalized, but we believe the pace of fiscal consolidation remains slow
• Strong tax buoyancy due to higher nominal growth (inflation included) made this year’s fiscal deficit target comfortable
• However, next year’s conditions due to higher inflation base may make the fiscal deficit target difficult to achieve
• Quality of spending in the budget remains good, which may result in growth remaining robust in the face of global
headwinds
• Hence effectively, challenging fiscal deficit math and strong growth may push RBI to hike rates moderately followed by
a period of elongated pause
• Changes in tax structure in select insurance products may be a dampener for the demand of long-dated bonds
• Also, the yield curve continues to remain flat, making term-premium unattractive
• Hence, we continue with our stance of remaining cautious on the longer-end of yield curve
• Having said that, the yields have become attractive on the shorter-end and we recommend investing in short-duration
schemes
• Accrual strategy is also recommended as the case for capital appreciation remains low due to low probability of rate-
cuts
Term Premium - The term premium is the amount by which the yield on a long-term bond is greater than the yield on shorter-term bonds
15. Disclaimer
15
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this presentation do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in these sector(s)/stock(s).
All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this
material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form,
without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible
tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP is an optional feature offered by ICICI Prudential AMC. This feature does not in any way give assurance of the performance of any of the Schemes of ICICI Prudential
Mutual Fund or provide any guarantee of withdrawals through SWP mode. The SWP will be processed either till Dec 2099 or till the units are available in target scheme, whichever is earlier.
Freedom SIP allows investors to switch the SIP investments to a target scheme, post completion of the SIP tenure & monthly SWP will continue from the target scheme. The investor may select any
other SWP Amount. Multiples above are default. The illustration showing “multiples”, “X”, “times” referred do not in any manner indicate the return or return multiple which investor will be getting
by investing in this feature. It only indicates the likely amount that can be withdrawn through SWP and for ease of understanding and planning of the investor, it is depicted in multiples of SIP
amount opted by the investor. STP – Systematic Transfer Plan. ICICI Prudential Booster Systematic Transfer Plan (“Booster STP”) is a facility wherein unit holder(s) can opt to transfer variable
amount(s) from designated open ended Scheme(s) of the Fund [hereinafter referred to as “Source Scheme”] to the designated open-ended Scheme(s) of the Fund [hereinafter referred to as “Target
Scheme”] at defined intervals. The Unitholder would be required to provide a Base Installment Amount that is intended to be transferred to the Target Scheme. The variable amount(s) or actual
amount(s) of transfer to the Target Scheme will be linked to the Equity Valuation Index (hereinafter referred to as EVI). Equity Valuation Index (EVI) is a proprietary model of ICICI Prudential AMC
Ltd. (the AMC) used for assessing overall equity market valuations. The AMC may also use this model for other facilities/features offered by the AMC. This facilities should not be associated or
confused with any other facilities provided by ICICI Prudential AMC Limited.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including
Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any
future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made
available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy,
reasonableness and / or completeness of any informa- tion. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”,
“should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward
looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and
other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign
exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Lim- ited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors,
personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any
way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be
fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.