Claudia Ringler International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Hanoi, May 3, 2010

1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN VIETNAM:
POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION
Claudia Ringler
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Washington, DC
Hanoi, May 3, 2010

2. POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
• Vietnam is expected to be particularly hard hit by
climate change – due to its tropical location, long
coastal line, and mega deltas
• Climate change impacts on agriculture are channeled
through changes in (inter-annual and intra-annual)
precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2
concentration, and sea level rise (inundation and
salinity intrusion)
• Climate impacts affect hydrology, runoff, and thus
water availability for irrigation and other uses
• Adverse impacts of climate change can affect
economic growth, poverty and malnutrition 2

3. SELECTION OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS:
Moisture Index for GCM Climate Projection in 2050
Drier Wetter

4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Average Climate Moisture Index
 Driest scenario: IPSL-CM4; wettest scenario: GISS-ER
 MONRE scenario is the Vietnamese government official climate change
scenario for A2
 Sea level rise scenario: 17 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050
 2030 (2016-45); 2050 (2036-2065)

5. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Mean Annual Temperature Changes by AEZ (oC)
Mean Annual Precipitation Changes by AEZ (%)

6. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
% Basin Runoff Changes
Red River Basin - 2030 Red River Basin - 2050
200 200
150 150
IPSL 100 IPSL
100
GISS GISS
50 50 MONRE
MONRE
0
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-50
-50
Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2030 Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2050
60 60
40 40
20 20
IPSL IPSL
0 GISS 0 GISS
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec HadCM3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-20 HadCM3
-20
-40 -40
-60 -60
 Red River Basin: Decreased wet-season flow under IPSL, increased dry
season flow under GISS and MONRE
 Mekong Delta: Major flow reduction under IPSL

7. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Crop Production Changes (%)
IAE 2009

8. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
o Without CO2 fertilization, production declines for
all crops and scenarios studied; with CO2
fertilization, MONRE scenario has production
increases for all crops, while production of IPSL
and GISS decline
o Without CO2 fertilization, rice production losses
range from 2.1 to 6.4 million ton per year in 2030,
and 3.4 to 6.7 million ton in 2050
o Sea level rise along can cause about 2.7 million
ton rice production loss in 2050, in the Mekong
Delta

9. KEY ADAPTATION METHODS
o Irrigation expansion and water savings in rice and
other crops
o Increased investment in agricultural research
o Change of planting dates/crop varieties
o Enhanced soil fertility management

10. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Ag. Research & Extension
220
Yield Index (Historical Yield Growth)
200
180 Rice
160 Maize
Cassava
140
Coffee
120
Sweet potato
100 Soybean
80
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Still room for increase in agricultural productivity

11. OTHER ADAPTATION OPTIONS
Shifting Planting Dates
Winter-spring Rice Planting Area
in Red River Delta

12. IFAD-IFPRI PARTNERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGE
MITIGATION ACTIVITIES AND SMALL FARMERS
 Objective: connect small farmers with markets that
reward climate change mitigation practices
 Four countries: Morocco, Ghana, Mozambique,
Vietnam
 Our objective is to do for agriculture what people
have successfully done for forestry: several projects
are already receiving money from both regulated and
voluntary markets

13. CHALLENGES
Lack of previous experience (exception Kenya)
“Technical” uncertainties:
o amount of carbon that can be sequestered
o best methods to store it in the ground
o length of time it can be stored
Workable solutions are needed to attract
investors

14. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
 Activity 1: Current carbon market activities
Review and assessment of current activities related to
carbon markets in the country. Forestry mitigation and
adaptation that contribute to mitigation will be included,
but will not be the focus.
 Activity 2: Review and analysis of institutional
structures
Assess current policies and institutions affecting access
of the rural poor to carbon markets. Institutions will
include the potential of various supply chains, producers
of high value export crops, non-governmental
organizations (NGOs), and farmer organizations as
aggregators and disseminators of management system
changes and measurement technologies

15. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
 Activity 3: Assessment of climate change mitigation
potential
The third activity focuses on quantifying the mitigation
potential. Agricultural mitigation potential will be
quantified by agricultural sub-sector, location, and
mitigation activity (including both reduction of emissions
and carbon sequestration) regardless of costs and
benefits.
 Activity 4: Cost-benefit analysis of mitigation
alternatives
Activity 3 will be followed by an estimation of costs and
benefits of the various mitigation activities. High -impact
areas will be identified combining high mitigation
potential with high poverty.

16. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
 Activity 5: Pilot study
A pilot study for testing agricultural mitigation activities
and testing of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
(MRV) techniques on the ground will be initiated in 2010.
The field case study will include: consultations with
officials and farmers at local case study sites, the
implementation of a carbon baseline inventory of the
study site, the development of technical factors relating
agricultural activities with carbon savings, the testing of
MRV, and the training of individuals for assessment and
reporting
 The climate change component will also continue to
provide technical assistance to the activities of Capacity
Strengthening and Knowledge Management throughout
2010. Outreach materials will be prepared in 2011