2019 Global Food Policy Report

2019 GFPR Overview
Urgency of rural revitalization
Employment &
Livelihoods
Gender Equality
Environment Renewable Energy Governance
Rural
Revitalization
Poverty, Hunger,
& Malnutrition
Europe’s Experience

FOOD POLICY IN 2018-2019
Growing urgency to address
the SDGs
▪ Looming issues from 2018 persist in 2019
▪ Hunger and malnutrition, climate change, and protracted
crises
▪ Rural areas are the linchpin of agri-food system
transformation for both rural and urban areas
▪ Fundamental transformation of agri-food
systems and of rural areas is urgently needed
to achieve the SDGs by 2030
▪ Rural revitalization is timely, achievable, and
critical for SDGs and climate goals
Source: Fan 2019

Source: Castañeda et al. 2016
26.8
19.2
Rural Urban
6.4 5.8
Rural Urban
Malnutrition persists in rural areas
Prevalence of under-5
stunting (%)
Prevalence of under-5
wasting (%)
Source: GNR 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2015 2000 2015
Rural Urban
Safely managed service Basic service Limited service Unimproved
Source: WHO and UNICEF 2018
Rural and urban sanitation service coverage (%)
Rural areas are in crisis
FOOD POLICY IN 2018-2019
Poverty is disproportionately rural
Rural areas face land and water
degradation and climate change,
which in turn affect social and economic
outcomes for agriculture and rural areas

▪ Rural revitalization requires a transformative approach to
make rural areas a good place to live and work for
present and future generations
▪ Leverage the symbiotic rural and urban systems to
transform rural areas
▪ Rurbanomics is a development approach premised on
the potential of symbiotic rural and urban systems to
transform rural areas
▪ Rural–urban links can spur growth and diversification in and beyond
agriculture, increase incomes, support value chain development, and
improve well-being
▪ Revitalizing rural areas is key to achieve the SDGs,
ensuring everyone can contribute to and benefit from
economic growth and development
RURAL REVITALIZATION
Tapping into new opportunities
Source: Steiner and Fan 2019

RURAL REVITALIZATION
Key recommendations
▪ Adopt rurbanomics as an approach for strengthening rural–urban linkages to promote
rural transformation, which can benefit rural labor, production, distribution, markets, services,
consumption, and environmental sustainability
▪ Transform agrifood systems to benefit rural areas through investments, including in
agricultural research and development, postharvest rural activities, and climate-smart and
nutrition-sensitive innovations
▪ Scale up rural nonfarm economic opportunities and build capacity for employment by
developing markets and creating clusters and special economic, as well as improving
primary and secondary education and vocational training
▪ Improve living conditions in rural areas with stronger social safety nets, better access to
basic services, and a healthier environment
▪ Reform rural governance to improve accountability and outcomes for a public sector
that is transparent, capable, and responsive to rural needs
Source: Steiner and Fan 2019

▪ The world is not yet on track to achieve the SDGs by
2030. Poverty and malnutrition rates are falling in many
places, but not fast enough
▪ Many of the world’s poor and malnourished people live in
rural areas and are dependent on the agriculture sector
for food and livelihoods
▪ Breakthroughs are needed in policy and financing for
agricultural and rural growth to reduce poverty and
hunger
▪ Critical challenges to reducing rural poverty and
malnutrition include limited international and domestic
investment, the current international trade environment,
and climate change
POVERTY, HUNGER, AND MALNUTRITION
Challenges and breakthroughs
for rural revitalization
Source: Kharas and Noe 2019

Trends in funding and progress for the SDGs
Projected progress for SDG targets by 2030,
Business as usual scenario
Funding for food and nutrition security, 2002-2016

Key recommendations
▪ Expand and improve data on rural poverty and malnutrition to provide evidence
for sound policymaking
▪ Adopt a systems approach to address rural needs, including integration of
natural resource issues, as well as those of other sectors, with agricultural
production and agri-food systems development
▪ Increase financial and policy support for reducing rural poverty and
malnutrition by strengthening national and international accountability mechanisms
and commitment to rural revitalization
▪ Create an attractive policy environment for private sector and blended public–
private investment in rural development that could reduce rural poverty and
malnutrition

▪ Many African countries have experienced strong economic
growth and rapid urbanization, but not the industrial growth
that has generated employment in other regions
▪ Policies that increase agricultural productivity and improve
market access are vital for rural areas, where poverty is
high and youth populations are large
▪ Rapidly growing demand for food in urban areas offers
promise for expansion of agro-processing and other
agribusinesses
▪ Connectivity is improving, but many rural residents have
little access to urban markets
▪ Integrating rural economies with small cities and towns
shows promise for transforming rural Africa
EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOODS
Connecting Africa’s rural and
urban areas for rural revitalization
Source: Diao, Dorosh, Jemal, Kennedy, and Thurlow 2019

Agriculture is at the heart of revitalizing rural areas
Share of income-generating activities in total
rural household income, by country
Population of peri-urban, peri-rural, and remote
rural areas in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015

▪ Nest rural employment strategies, such as policies supporting agricultural
commercialization and off-farm employment, within broader strategies for
agricultural transformation and development
▪ Modernize and diversify agriculture to promote youth employment, including
adoption of modern technologies and development of high-value crops
▪ Make complementary investments in basic services (electricity,
communications) and human capital (education, healthcare) to promote
vibrant rural areas and support better employment options
Key recommendations

▪ Achieving gender equity and women’s empowerment is of
intrinsic value to women and girls, and a key for the SDGs
▪ Women and girls face a burden of time-consuming
responsibilities, while controlling fewer resources and having
less access, and less voice in governance and decisionmaking
than men
▪ Growth of nonagricultural jobs in many regions has led to the
“feminization” of agriculture
▪ The reach-benefit-empower framework facilitates evaluation of
how projects support women’s participation, receipt of benefits,
and ability to make choices
▪ Policies create conditions for successful projects, and should
also be evaluated with the reach-benefit-empower lens
▪ Policies to empower women can promote rural revitalization
GENDER EQUALITY
Women’s empowerment for
rural revitalization
Source: Quisumbing, Meinzen-Dick, and Malapit 2019

GENDER EQUALITY
Reach-benefit-empower framework
Applying the framework for a nutrition-sensitive agricultural extension program

▪ Use a reach-benefit-empower framework to ensure that interventions move
beyond nominal participation to real improvements in women’s lives
▪ Increase women’s effective voice through participation in formal governance
structures, from local to national, and increasing women’s confidence to
become politically involved
▪ Improve data and evidence relevant to increasing equality, particularly sex-
disaggregated data and impact evaluation of programs and policies for
women’s empowerment
▪ Include men and boys when designing projects and policies for women
to reduce backlash and encourage changes in gender norms
Key recommendations
GENDER EQUALITY

▪ Rural areas are the locus of essential ecosystem services for
the planet, and rural dwellers are key custodians of these
services, yet rural livelihoods also contribute to loss of forests,
groundwater depletion, land degradation, water and air
pollution, and climate change
▪ Challenges contributing to this environmental degradation
include: population and (unequal) economic growth and
pressures on natural resources; associated poverty and
inequality that leave people (particularly women) with few
options; and lack of rights and poor pricing of resources
▪ Restoring and improving the environment is a key component
of rural revitalization, essential not only to improving rural
living conditions but also to the health of the planet
ENVIRONMENT
Revitalizing, restoring, and
improving rural areas
Source: Ringler and Meinzen-Dick 2019

Rural areas are critical for key ecosystem services
Key functions and relationships affecting rural environments
ENVIRONMENT

▪ Invest in rural revitalization to create healthy and thriving rural areas and
to provide safe food, clean water, climate change mitigation, and other key
environmental services
▪ Provide economic incentives to address environmental degradation,
including through payments for environmental services, removal of subsidies
that distort resource use, and well-defined, tradable rights for environmental
“goods,” such as clean water, and “bads,” such as pollution
▪ Invest in innovative practices and technologies, such as precision
farming, small-scale irrigation, and communication technologies, that can
increase agricultural yields and reduce environmental degradation
▪ Support context-appropriate institutions to motivate and coordinate action
among rural dwellers to address environmental issues
Key recommendations
ENVIRONMENT

▪ Energy is crucial to achieving the SDGs and ensuring durable
rural growth and development, yet almost one billion people
still lack access to electricity
▪ Modern electrical systems, particularly solar power, are making
it easier than ever to meet the energy needs of dispersed rural
populations in developing countries
▪ Costs of solar systems have fallen dramatically and, together
with the high solar potential in many developing countries,
these systems offer a host of rural development possibilities
▪ Electricity brings numerous benefits and potential to increase
consumption of healthy, nutrient-dense foods where irrigation
and refrigeration are introduced
▪ Expanding solar power use in Africa and other developing
regions will require new approaches to energy planning and
implementation to reach dispersed rural populations
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Bringing electricity to revitalize
Africa’s rural areas
Source: Arndt 2019

A changing energy landscape
Cost of renewable energy at auction, global
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: Arndt 2019

▪ Provide public support to increase electricity access in remote rural areas through
policies to promote investment and competition among providers of distributed solar or
other renewable systems
▪ Deliver packages of support—access to electricity plus the means to use it, such as
lighting and refrigeration— to generate larger development benefits for rural
communities.
▪ Account for the impacts of adoption of new technologies within households,
particularly on women, including the impact on workloads
▪ Be aware of potential unintended consequences of widespread technology
adoption, such as more rapid depletion of groundwater resources associated with low-
cost electrical pumping
▪ Consider the potential for enhancing rural development and serving urban
electricity needs when selecting sites for power generation
Key recommendations
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: Arndt 2019

▪ Three aspects of governance are critical for rural
revitalization
▪ Appropriate and predictable laws and regulations are
fundamental to economic growth and development
▪ Effective policy implementation and enforcement are essential
for achieving policy goals for rural areas
▪ Accountability is key to ensuring governments respond to the
needs of the poor
▪ Devolution of governance to a subnational or local level can
improve responsiveness to local needs when
responsibilities are matched with adequate funding and
mechanisms to ensure accountability
▪ The information revolution offers new tools for improving
governance for rural revitalization
GOVERNANCE
Making institutions work for
rural revitalization
Source: Kosec and Resnick 2019

Technological innovation can help enhance transparency
Access to technology over time, by country income group
GOVERNANCE

▪ Establish an enabling and predictable regulatory environment to
stimulate private sector investment and engagement for rural revitalization
▪ Build state capabilities and establish incentives for better service
delivery, such as pay-for-performance and delivery units, to improve policy
implementation at the national and subnational levels
▪ Facilitate the information revolution to promote engagement of
citizens with one another and with politicians and governments
Key recommendations
GOVERNANCE

▪ Rural development is a European Union priority, supported by almost
€100 billion in funding for 2014–2020
▪ EU rural development policy aims to foster: competitiveness in
agriculture; sustainable natural resource management and climate
action; and balanced territorial development of rural areas
▪ Spending on rural and farm diversification is expected to create
almost 74,000 rural jobs
▪ With only 11% of farm holdings managed by farmers younger than
40, start-up grants support and enhance viability of young farmers
▪ Agri-environment-climate measures support improvements in
environmental quality
▪ “Bottom-up” initiatives emphasize the role of rural communities in
determining their own development trajectories.
▪ Monitoring and evaluation is intended to inform policy design, but
has fallen short in providing necessary evidence
EUROPE’S EXPERIENCE
Investing in rural revitalization
Source: Matthews 2019

European Union’s priorities for rural development
Share of funds for EU rural development priorities, 2014-2020

▪ Engage rural areas in protecting and enhancing the natural environment
through programs that integrate agriculture with environment and climate
objectives
▪ Promote endogenous rural development through bottom-up approaches
that channel the enthusiasm, skills, and local knowledge of rural communities
▪ Support connectivity of rural areas, particularly through access to the
Internet, which is essential to the development of precision agriculture, e-
services, and greater rural business innovation
▪ Design and implement M&E programs to provide timely evidence on the
impact of spending to inform project design and improve targeting and funding
allocation
Lessons learned

Regional perspectives and experiences in
rural revitalization vary

Recent policy developments
▪ Important steps taken for agricultural and rural transformation
▪ Inaugural Africa Agriculture Transformation Scorecard (AATS)
▪ First ever continental Biennial Review of progress in meeting commitments to agricultural development
▪ Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement
Outlook for rural revitalization
▪ Rising urban demand for more convenient processed local foods is transforming staples value
chains and creating opportunities for rural revitalization
▪ Policies for rural enterprise growth will be key
▪ Rural areas will benefit from private sector investment in emerging agro-processing sector
▪ Growth in agribusiness sector likely to stimulate smallholder farming and aid poverty reduction
▪ Better infrastructure and social services needed to make the rural space more livable
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Africa (1)
Source: Badiane, Collins, Makombe, and Ulimwengu 2019

Africa (2)
Change in poverty and agriculture indicators for Africa Change in rural and urban poverty rates
Source: Badiane, Collins, Makombe, and Ulimwengu 2019

▪ Higher fuel prices reduced pressure for economic reform in oil-exporting countries but increased
pressure for reform in oil-importing countries, especially for reform of energy subsidies
▪ Constraints to investment, tourism, and trade continue for MENA countries indirectly affected by
conflict and refugee crisis, compounded by weaknesses in economic and political institutions
▪ MENA economies have undertaken efforts to deal with growing unemployment, especially youth
unemployment, which is more than 27.5% in the Middle East and 30.5% in North Africa
▪ Given the region’s large rural populations and the potential of rural areas, greater attention should
be given to fostering rural development as a driver of economy-wide development
▪ Incentivize economic decentralization to advance local development, and continue to reform
inefficient subsidies to optimize use of scarce public resources to support growth in rural areas
▪ Move towards more diverse and modern rural employment beyond agriculture and build on the
existing strengths of local communities to push for economic expansion
Middle East and North Africa (1)
Source: Breisinger, Khouri, and Mahfouz 2019

Rural share of population and rural-urban inequality
Middle East and North Africa (2)
Source: Breisinger, Khouri, and Mahfouz 2019

▪ Depreciation of national currencies generated inflationary pressures in Central Asia's
consumer markets, including food markets
▪ Recent political and economic developments in Central Asia led to a surge in intraregional
trade and investment
▪ Efforts to develop specific regions or sectors of an economy through cluster development and
special economic zones (SEZs) have had mixed results
▪ Need to strengthen role of the private sector, given the uncertain environment and growing
demand for employment, especially in rural areas
▪ Creating an enabling environment for regional integration, trade, and private sector
development, will be important for economic development and a more competitive, healthy,
and well-nourished population
Central Asia (1)
Source: Akramov, Ilyasov, Tsvetnov, and Park 2019

Agriculture’s share in total employment
Central Asia (2)
Agriculture’s share in GDP
Source: Akramov, Ilyasov, Tsvetnov, and Park 2019

▪ South Asian governments have increased their commitment to providing basic services in rural
areas in recent years, and about 80% of region’s rural population now has access to electricity
▪ Governments are taking measures to help revitalize rural economies
▪ India: cluster-based specialized farming, supporting famer organizations, and creating funds for
irrigation, dairy processing, aquaculture and animal husbandry infrastructure
▪ Pakistan: created a framework for agricultural reform and rural revitalization
▪ Yet most jobs are in the informal sector, and implementing a “decent employment agenda” will
require improving rural livelihoods
▪ Inclusive employment growth, continued agricultural productivity growth, and strengthening of
the agriculture-based rural nonfarm economy will be essential
▪ However, poor regional integration and escalating trade tensions may constrain prospects
South Asia (1)
Source: Kumar, Rana, Davies, Ahmed, and Joshi 2019

Access to basic services in rural South Asia
South Asia (2)
Road density in South Asia
Source: Kumar, Rana, Davies, Ahmed, and Joshi 2019

▪ Huge social, economic, and environmental transformation from urban growth, but rural
regions often left out due to uneven, insufficiently inclusive progress
▪ Governments have pioneered strategies to reverse rural decline for more resilient,
sustainable economy
▪ China: multidimensional strategy improving infrastructure, supporting technology innovation,
integrating rural industries, improving rural public services
▪ Myanmar: promoting integrated value chain development and agricultural diversification
▪ Growing urban markets, supportive domestic policies, and advances in technology for the
revival of rural areas can facilitate agricultural transformation
▪ Development of ICTS will likely be key in transforming agricultural production and the lives of farmers
▪ At the same time, governments will need to navigate uncertainty under rising protectionism and
ongoing trade disputes
East and Southeast Asia
Source: Chen, Timmer, Dawe, and Wang 2019

▪ Recent elections in Mexico and Brazil are changing the political landscape
▪ Mexico’s incoming government announced intention to invest in revitalizing rural areas
▪ In Brazil, new authorities have announced policies that may reduce environmental safeguards
▪ Urbanization has changed rural labor markets, nonagricultural rural activities, and value chains
▪ Growing presence of intermediate cities and role of large agricultural operators, input companies, agro-
industrial processors, and supermarket chains
▪ Farmers have become more diversified, with a variety of large, medium and small farmers, each needing
different policy approaches
▪ Need to ensure dynamic urban–rural linkages and to ensure that revitalization of the rural sector
reaches everyone, including vulnerable ethnic groups and regions
▪ Important to tailor macroeconomic, trade, and agricultural policies to strengthen social
resilience in a complex and uncertain environment
Latin America and the Caribbean (1)
Source: Díaz-Bonilla and Piñeiro 2019

Access to basic services
Latin America and the Caribbean (2)
Source: Díaz-Bonilla and Piñeiro 2019

TRACKING CHANGE
Food Policy Indicators
Statistics on Public Expenditures
for Economic Development
Agricultural Science and
Technology Indicators
Food Policy Research
Capacity Indicators
Agricultural Total Factor
Productivity
Projections of food production,
consumption, and hunger

Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators
TRACKING CHANGE
▪ Global investment in agricultural research has shifted dramatically in recent years
toward the developing world
▪ Agricultural research spending and capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean and
in Asia have grown rapidly since 2000, but considerable differences remain across
countries
▪ China accounts for most of the agricultural research spending growth in Asia, with
India close behind
▪ Although agricultural research spending and human resource capacity in Africa
south of the Sahara have grown considerably, this growth has been uneven and
trends are driven by large countries such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa
▪ Female scientists remain severely underrepresented in agricultural research, despite
their being in a unique position to address the pressing challenges of African
farmers, the majority of whom are women

Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic
Development
TRACKING CHANGE
▪ Agricultural spending in recent years has been highest in East Asia and the Pacific,
largely driven by rapid growth in agricultural spending in China since 2005, as
reflected by three key indicators of government expenditures: per capita agricultural
spending, agricultural spending as a share of agricultural GDP, and agricultural
spending as a share of total spending
▪ The Middle East and North Africa as well as Europe and Central Asia regions have
spent large amounts on agriculture both per capita and as a share of agricultural
GDP, but not as a share of total spending
▪ Among developing countries, agricultural spending per capita and as a share of
agricultural GDP in 2016 was lowest in Africa south of the Sahara; as a share of total
spending, agricultural spending was lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean

Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators
TRACKING CHANGE
▪ Overall food policy research capacity across all countries did not change from last
year’s level, but there was substantial variation across countries and regions
▪ In the last five years, overall there has been an increase in the number of
publications across all regions and countries with the exception of China and South
Africa
▪ In 2018, most Asian countries showed little change in number of publications, with
the exception of Bangladesh, Lao PDR, and Nepal, which saw an increase in
publications
▪ In Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, and Tanzania saw an increase in the
number of publications in 2018
▪ In Latin America, apart from Guatemala, all countries experienced either a slight
increase or no change in the number of publications in 2018

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity
TRACKING CHANGE
▪ Average TFP growth for all developing regions in 2011–2015 shows lower values
than average growth rates of the previous decade (2001–2010)
▪ Sluggish TFP growth in Africa south of the Sahara in 2001–2010 decreased to 0.4%
in 2011–2015
▪ TFP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is the highest among developing
regions in recent years at 1.9% in 2011–2015, but below the 2.3% growth in the
region in 2001–2010, largely because of slower growth in Brazil (1.6% in 2011–2015
compared with 3.3% in 2001–2010)
▪ Growth in Asia and the Pacific and the Middle East and North Africa for 2011–2015
is similar to growth of these regions in 2001–2010, with growth in China slowing to
less than 2%, and India’s growth accelerating from 1.1% in 2001–2010 to 1.7 for
2011–2015

Projections of food production, consumption,
and hunger
TRACKING CHANGE
▪ Global food production will grow by about 59% over 2010 levels by 2050 in the context of
climate change—8 percentage points less than would be the case without climate change
▪ Even with population growth and climate change, per capita consumption is projected to
increase by about 10% globally to more than 3,000 kilocalories per day
▪ But differences in access to food within and between countries mean that nearly 500 million people will
remain at risk of hunger
▪ Despite the impacts of climate change, meat production is projected to grow by 65% globally by
2050, and by 77% in developing countries
▪ Production of fruits and vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds will grow even more rapidly, by about
80% globally and more than doubling in some regions
▪ Production of cereals and roots and tubers will grow more slowly, by around 40% globally but
roughly doubling in Africa south of the Sahara

In order to end hunger
and malnutrition in just
over a decade,
we must revitalize rural
areas to ensure that
everyone can contribute
to and benefit from growth
and development.

For the Global Food
Policy Report and more
information, please visit:
http://gfpr.ifpri.info/

2019 Global Food Policy Report

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