Bart Minten, Joey Goeb, Jon Keesecker, Derek Headey
POLICY SEMINAR
COVID-19 and Food Market Disruptions in Myanmar
OCT 15, 2020 - 09:00 AM TO 10:30 AM +0630
10. Key results – 3: Business of food vendors
impacted by COVID19
1. 24% of food vendors state that
their business has not been
affected – majority states that
profits are lower
2. Few problems mentioned on the
supply side or with transportation
(in September)
Effects of COVID‐19 on food vendors in
Myanmar, percentage of vendors affected
10
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Lost/let go of employees
Less visits customers
Deline in profits
No effect on business
Barriers in transportation
Difficulty local suppliers
Difficulty suppliers from outside
Share of food vendors
16. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Tobacco or betel nut…
Alcoholic beverages
Coffee and tea mix
Soft drinks
Dry noodles
Snacks and bakery
Cooking oil, sugar, salt
Dairy products
Eggs
Pulses (beans)
Rice
Kitchen crops (onions, garlic)
Sausage, meat, chicken, fish
Fruits and vegetables
Key results – 1: Lower sales in early July 2020, but
shops sell same products as 2019
1. Shops sell mostly dry,
packaged foods and
beverages
2. Only 2 shops reported selling
a new food category in 2020
compared to 2019
3. Lower sales reported in early
July compared to same time
in 2019 for 64% of all food
products sold 16
Food products sold, percent of shops
Share reporting
lower sales in
early July
56%
56%
51%
47%
56%
61%
66%
67%
62%
73%
65%
63%
66%
54%
17. Key results – 2: Large disruptions from 2nd wave
1. 75% of shops had a lockdown
in their township in late Sept
2. 50% of shops have supply and
demand disruptions
3. 90% of shops adopted safety
practices
a. Face coverings (77%), hand
washing (70%), distance (58%)
Disruptions by survey round, percentage of shops
17
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Adopt safety practices
Demand disruptions
Supply disruptions
Lockdown on street
Lockdown in township
Curfew
Late Sept Mid‐Aug Mid‐July
19. Key results – 4: Modest food price increases
during COVID‐19 crisis
1. Small price increases for
processed, packaged foods
2. Larger price increases for raw
foods in both waves
a. Partly due to seasonality
3. Township lockdowns 3%
increase in consumer‐facing prices
of foods on average
a. Higher increases for raw foods
19
Selling price changes as a percentage of pre‐COVID‐19 prices
Product
First wave
(March‐August)
Second wave
(Sept)
High price Low price
Raw foods
Rice 4% ‐1% 5%
Onion 8% 0% 41%
Chickpeas 1% 0% 7%
Eggs 3% 0% 6%
Packaged foods & beverages
Dry noodles 2% ‐1% 6%
Vegetable oil 3% ‐3% 4%
Coffee mix 0% 0% 0%
Beer 2% ‐2% 1%
Average price changes as a percentage of March 2020 prices
25. MAU Introduction
Past MAU releases
• Market Snapshot (8 twp): Trader / Input Supplier (Sept. 1)
• Market Snapshot (8 twp): Trader / Input Supplier (Sept. 16)
Forthcoming MAU releases (October)
• Market Snapshot (8 twp): Transport / logistics Providers
• Commodity Price Tracker (5 twp): 5 product categories
• Farmer Snapshot (6 twp): Paddy / winter crops / food security
Forthcoming MAU releases (Nov/after)
• Study (4 twp): COVID-19 Impact on Crab value chain (Nov.)
• TBD
26. Farmer Snapshot: Disclaimers
*Today we focus only on paddy cultivation*
(excludes data on winter crops expectations / food security)
*Data are preliminary*
33. Farmer Snapshot: What’s Next
• Analyze: Data for winter crops (expectations) and food security (FIES module)
• Writeup: Release findings by end of October.
• Further data collection: Survey same farmers again in early/mid November
38. COVID Community Survey (Round 3)
25
Overview
• Three rounds of a community level survey covering rural and urban
communities spread across all states/regions
• Late June & early July (end of first wave)
• early August (recovery)
• Late August and early September (start of second wave)
Geographical Zone
Delta/South 135
Dry Zone/Central 166
South‐East 55
North 105
West 19
Rural/Urban
Urban 114
Rural 366
Total 480
39. Mobility restrictions have come back in most communities
• By end of 1st wave most
communities had a wide range of
mobility restrictions to prevent
spread of C19
• Prevention measures fell away by
early August
• Quickly came back by late‐August
and early September
• 68% have some restriction on food
traders entering
• Over half restrict residents from
existing community
• 80% impose curfews
• Few communities cited problems
with accessing transport or banks
(<10%)
26
Mobility restrictions came back quickly as 2nd wave hit
69%
64%
53% 56%
84%
35% 35% 33% 34%
71%
77%
68%
55% 56%
79%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Entry
restrictions:
social
Entry
restrictions:
food trade
Exit
restrictions:
shopping
Exit
restrictions:
work/trade
Curfews
Late June‐early July Early August Late Aug‐Early Sep
43. Recommendations summary
• Ag production & marketing are disrupted, poverty rising
• Important to keep ag value chains functioning safely and smoothly
• Evaluate low, medium and high‐risk activities
• Standardize some basic regulations to improve consistent across
states/regions and over time: chopping and changing is highly disruptive
• Offer technical advice to local governments for making markets safer:
• Longer opening hours; physical distancing measures, entry limits, promote
home delivery – look at best practice measures from other countries
• Further close monitoring of these markets is important both for C19
prevention and to ensure smooth functioning
30