Johan Swinnen, John McDermott BOOK LAUNCH Virtual Event - COVID-19 & Global Food Security AUG 4, 2020 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT

1. COVID-19 AND GLOBAL
FOOD SECURITY
Johan Swinnen
Director General, International Food
Policy Research Institute
August 4, 2020
John McDermott
Director, CGIAR Research Program on
Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH)

3. COVID-19 & Global Food Security
Book Sections
1. Introduction
2. Food Security, Poverty, and Inequality
3. Diets and Nutrition
4. Labor Restrictions and Remittances
5. Food Trade
6. Supply Chains
7. Gender
8. Policy Reponses
9. The Future of Pandemics and Food Systems
Methodology
1. Global models
2. Country models
3. Survey analyses
4. Expert views
5. Case studies

4. A combination of impacts of
 Large economic RECESSION
 Major food system DISRUPTIONS
• Traditional supply chains (both harvesting,
processing, transport and retailing) in poor
countries
• Labor-intensive activities in rich countries
(e.g. some F&V harvests (migrants) and
meat processing)
COVID-19 impacts on food and nutrition security

5. COVID-19 impacts on global poverty and nutrition
Source: Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020
Impact on Global POVERTY
148
79
42
20%
23%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
40
80
120
160
World Sub-Saharan
Africa
South Asia
Increase no. of poor (millions)
% increase poverty (RHS)
Impact on Global NUTRITION

6. COVID-19 impacts on country GDP and poverty
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.
Average COVID-19 impact per month of lockdown
-24.3%
-37.2%
-30.1%
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
13.3
16.7
12.212.6
16.8
10.7
14.0
16.5
15.0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
National Rural Urban
Increase in POVERTY headcount (% points)Declines in GDP (%)

7. 1. They spend a large share of their income on food
2. Their main production factor and asset is physical
labor
3. COVID causes more disruptions in their (private)
food value chains – since more labor-intensive
4. Public social and nutrition programs are disrupted
(more important for them)
5. Less access to health services
6. Especially vulnerable: children, women,
(ex-)migrants
Poor people’s food and nutrition security is
disproportionately affected by COVID-19

8. 50
26.7 27.5
Poorest Middle Richest
Poor people suffer
from stronger INCOME declines
Poor people suffer from
stronger NUTRITION effects
30.8
60.8
71.7
20.8
44.2
69.2
Poorest Middle Richest
Jan-Feb May
COVID-19 impacts: Survey results from Ethiopia
Source: Hirvonen et al. 2020; Tesfaye et al. 2020.
% of households consuming dairy products% of households that have much lower incomes

9. Women are especially vulnerable
Gendered impacts of COVID-19
 Income effects (eg from remittances)
 Health requirements, particularly in rural areas
 Shocks like illnesses and death
 Women’s empowerment and children’s schooling – with
impacts on future female labor force participation
Gender-sensitive policy responses : examples
 Adapt existing schemes and choose forms of social protection mindful of gender implications
 Improve program targeting for women
 Complementary programming in food and nutrition, water and sanitation, maternal health, etc.
 …
Source: Quisumbing et al. 2020; Hidrobo et al. 2020.

10. Source: Diao and Wang, 2020.
Percent declines in total income due to a 50% international remittance
shock and a 30% domestic remittance shock among poor households
-5.0%
-16.3%
-11.8%
-11.0%
Urban
Rural female headed
Rural
Total
Gender and income declines
COVID-19 induced fall in remittances in Myanmar

11. Source: Thurlow, 2020; Diao and Wang, 2020.
-14.3%
-5.2%
-13.7%
-21.8%
Total Agriculture Industry Services
Changes in sectoral GDP during 7-week period of
restrictions and shocks in ETHIOPIA
Changes in sectoral GDP during 2-week lockdown
in MYANMAR
-41%
-14%
-52%
-56%
Total Agriculture Industry Services
Sectoral impacts due to COVID-19

12. Changes in GDP (%),
NIGERIA: 5-week lockdown
Changes in GDP (%),
MYANMAR: 2-week lockdown
-41%
-24%
-14%
-33%
-71%
-38%
-18%
-14%
-29%
-92%
Economic decline of food systems
Source: Thurlow, 2020.

13. Source: Glauber, Laborde, Martin, and Vos, 2020.
 Despite good harvests and stocks for staple
crops: food exporting countries introduced
export restrictions
 Rapid response “Trade restrictions are
worst possible response to safeguard
food security”
 Similar by FAO, G20, WTO etc. : call for open
trade to avoid repeating the problems of
2007-2008
 Since then: removal of several constraints
See: IFPRI trade policy tracker
Trade restrictions:
Early response to COVID-19

14. Source: Bouet and Laborde, 2020; Resnick 2020
See: IFPRI’s COVID-19 Policy Response Portal
 Country responses vary widely in
approach and impact
 Many responses overlap and interact
 Trends thus far may impact food security
• Major restrictions on urban food traders
• Widespread support for contactless
payments
• Targeted support on consumer livelihoods
• Less support for agriculture than for other
forms of economic assistance
• Exclusion of agriculture ministries in many
COVID-19 national response units
COVID-19 policy restrictions create problems for
African trade (international and domestic)

15. Source: Reardon and Swinnen, 2020.
 Global vs. local supply
chains
 Innovations to
overcome restrictions
 Growth of e-commerce
 …..
Restructuring trade, supply chains and
food systems

16. Types of national policy responses: LMICs
Fiscal and financial Social protectionMovement control Governance and leadership
Food supplyHealth Markets and trade Business

17. Initial common policy responses
 Movement Control and Public Health
 Fiscal and Financial
o Ensure essential goods and services
o Function of domestic economy
o Exchange rates / debt / trade
 Social Safety Nets
o Recommendations for adapting to provide rapid
support (cash, food, programs)
o Many innovations being tracked (Gentilini, World
Bank)

18. Policy implementation
and effectiveness
 For many countries:
• capacity to implement limited.
• failures consequential
 Assessing implementation and
effectiveness in the COVID-19
policy response portal:
• Institutional leadership and
coordination
• Price stability
• Citizen responses (civil unrest,
non-compliance)
 Trust and acceptance

19. Source: Torero 2020.
Prepare food systems for a long-haul
fight against COVID-19

20. Future food systems:
Innovations and resilience

21. Future of
epidemics and
pandemics
 Plagues have had dramatic
impacts historically
 Modern tools for control of
epidemics not enough
 Frequency / spread / impact
of emergence is changing
 Implications for future
prevention and
preparedness

22. COVID-19: Disruptions and connections
 COVID-19 – an acute crisis exacerbating chronic underlying conditions
 Exposed systemic inequities and need for pro-active inclusion efforts (GFPR, 2020)
 Rethinking how systems are organized and the importance of interconnections
between sectors (health, food, economies)
 Where to start:
• Cross-sectoral policy responses – trade-offs, synergies, intended and unintended
consequences
• Community leadership and resilience – critical in pandemics