John McDermott GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT GLOBAL LAUNCH EVENT - 2021 Global Food Policy Report: Transforming Food Systems After COVID-19 APR 13, 2021 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT

1. John McDermott
Director, CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture
for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), IFPRI
April 13, 2021
GFPR 2021 Report Overview

2. Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths
COVID-19 Year 1
Deaths and economic disruption
–8.0
–7.0
–6.0
–5.0
–4.0
–3.0
–2.0
–1.0
0.0
World
Advanced
Economies
Emerging and
Developing
Asia
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
Middle East
and Central
Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Low-Income
Developing
Countries
Percentage
change
Real GDP growth, 2020
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2021 Update (Washington, DC: 2021).
Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE COVID-19 Database (updated March 18, 2021).

3. COVID-19 Year 1
Policy responses in 6 LMICs
MAR 2020 APR 2020 MAY 2020 JUN 2020 JUL 2020 AUG 2020 SEP 2020 OCT 2020 NOV 2020 DEC 2020 JAN 2021
LOCKDOWNS
AND HEALTH
MEASURES
▪ Bangladesh, Honduras, and Rwanda issue lockdowns
▪ Zambia implements targeted lockdown of Nakonde
▪ Rwanda imposes targeted lockdown in Kigali ▪ Myanmar announces stay-at-home orders in Yangon
STIMULUS AND
FINANCIAL
ASSISTANCE
▪ Egypt
issues $6.25
billion
package
▪ Bangladesh issues $8 billion stimulus
▪ Rwanda receives IMF loan
▪ Bangladesh, Egypt, Honduras receive IMF loans
▪ Myanmar receives IMF loan
SOCIAL
PROTECTION
▪ Operation Honduras Solidaria provides 30 days of groceries to 800,000 families
▪ Egypt expands Takaful & Karama monetary subsidies ▪ Myanmar secures $950 million for vaccines
▪ Zambia provides $40–$80 per month to affected households in major cities ▪ Rwanda submits to COVAX framework
FOOD SECTOR
INTERVENTIONS
▪ Honduras offers Productive Solidarity Bonus to 190,000 producers
▪ Zambia suspends weekly markets ▪ Myanmar announces a $60 million plus relief plan for the agriculture sector
▪ Bangladesh allocates more than $1 billion to subsidize fertilizer
▪ Egypt postpones farmers’ debt payments, fixes wheat price ▪ Rwanda temporarily closes Kigali Market, other markets operate at 50% with traders working on rotational basis
Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE COVID-19 Data (updated Feb. 19, 2021).
Honduras
Zambia
Rwanda
Myanmar
Egypt
Bangladesh
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Daily
new
confirmed
cases
per
million
people
(7-day
rolling
average)

4. Bangladesh
Ethiopia
Ghana
Indonesia
Kenya
Mali
Myanmar
Malawi
Niger
Nigeria
Pakistan
Rwanda
Sudan
Senegal
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
Ghana
Indonesia
Kenya
Mali
Myanmar
Malawi
Niger
Nigeria
Pakistan
Rwanda
Sudan
Senegal
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
50 60 70 80 90 100
Difference
compared
to
2019
period
Average Stringency Index Value over the period
Lockdown stringency and change in GDP
and agricultural GDP
Agricultural GDP GDP
▪ Critical trade-offs among
health, food systems, and
economic goals. Multisectoral
perspective and clearly defined
values needed.
▪ Increase understanding of
the interplay of health,
economic, and social policy
actions.
▪ Develop processes for policy
coordination and increase
capacity of policymakers to
work across multiple sectors.
Health, food, and economics
Source: Stringency data are from H. Thomas et al., Oxford’s COVID-19 Government
Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government (www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracker,
accessed Feb. 8, 2021).

5. Regional differences
Africa
▪ Disease impacts later in 2020
and into 2021
▪ Rural – urban differences
▪ Policy responses depending
on fiscal capacity and existing
programs
MENA
▪ Food supply resilience
▪ Major income disruptions –
remittances, tourism; urban
businesses; greater
hardship for the poor
▪ Safety nets critical and
effectiveness varied
South Asia
▪ Great initial concern, lockdowns
▪ Disease wave (India) later in
2020 and into 2021
▪ Massive scale-up of existing
social protection
▪ Transforming food systems
showed a mix of resilience and
fragility
E & SE Asia
▪ Disease impacts early 2020
▪ Successful lockdowns and
disease control in East Asia
with rapid food and economic
recovery
▪ More varied impacts in smaller
SE Asian countries
LAC
▪ Massive health and economic
impact of the pandemic in
many countries (evolving)
▪ Ongoing modernization of food
systems effective but
vulnerabilities in transitioning
systems
Central Asia
▪ Disruptions exacerbated
ongoing food system
transformation challenges –
diversification, jobs, value
addition, infrastructure, and
digital capacity

6. Food system transformation
Source: Based on S. Fan et al., “Food Systems for Human and Planetary Health: Economic Perspectives and Challenges,” Food System Economics (forthcoming).

7. Agarianna76 / Shutterstock.com
Healthy diets for all: 3 billion could not afford
recommended diets pre-pandemic; number has
increased by approximately 10% since.
Recommendations
▪ Focus on diets to address all forms of malnutrition
▪ Support LMICs: food-based dietary guidelines and
diet standards
▪ Supplement with social protection for those left
behind
▪ Demand-side will drive healthy diets: focus on
consumers and food environments
Nutrition

8. jeep2499 / Shutterstock.com
▪ Awareness increasing but evidence and action lag
behind
▪ Interplay of environment and food systems in disease
emergence (One Health)
▪ Climate and other environmental shocks will increase
in frequency and consequences
Responses
▪ Build evidence and capacity to integrate environmental
sustainability into nature-positive food systems
▪ Multi-pronged approaches: governance, institutions,
policy, and technologies bundled together at
appropriate scales
Natural resources and
environment

9. Tom Pilston / Panos Pictures
▪ COVID-19 exacerbated inequalities with
vulnerable groups most affected
▪ Reversed progress on many SDGs (poverty,
health, gender, nutrition, education)
▪ Complex rural-urban dynamic in COVID-19
impacts
▪ Major investments made in social protection
▪ Reflect urgent needs
▪ Most effective if adapting and scaling of existing
programs
Inclusion

10. Majority World CIC / Alamy Stock Photo
▪ Disruption of food supply and impacts differed
by food and food system
▪ Transitioning food systems had the most
challenges
▪ Some dramatic acceleration of food supply
innovations: re-organization of supply,
logistics, and digital technology
▪ Enabling business environment
▪ Enabling regulations, “infrastructure”
▪ Recognize transitional challenges: capacity of
SMEs, formalizing markets, evolving standards
Efficiency and food supply
chains

11. Adam Dean / Panos Pictures
▪ Resilience needs to be integrated into food
systems approaches as one of 5 outcomes to
be considered
Resilience planning needs to consider multiple
and more frequent shocks: disease, climate,
financial, conflict, …
1. Mitigating frequency and severity of shocks
2. Information systems to help anticipate
shocks and plan responses
3. Build capacity to absorb shocks
Resilience

12. ▪ Pandemic is far from over
▪ Evolving situation
▪ Inequalities exposed; more concerted support to vulnerable groups critical
▪ Beyond the pandemic – climate and other shocks
▪ Public enabling and regulation of private food system actors in transitioning
systems
▪ Learn lessons and address multiple food system transformation goals
▪ Resilient policy systems: effectiveness and sustainability of policy
responses
▪ Cross-sectoral coordination
What is next?