Kamiljon Akramov and Katrina Kosec POLICY SEMINAR Virtual Event - Food Policy Research and Capacity Development in Eurasia Co-Organized by the Eurasian Center for Food Security (ECFS), World Bank Group, and IFPRI DEC 2, 2020 - 07:30 AM TO 09:00 AM EST

1. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on
Household Welfare, Food Security,
and Agriculture in Central Asia
Kamiljon Akramov and Katrina Kosec
Development Strategy and Governance Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
December 2, 2020

2. COVID-19 pandemic had a significant negative impact on
Central Asian economies, but agriculture continues to grow
Growth in January-September 2020, %
GDP Agriculture Industry
Kazakhstan -2.8 5.1 -3.5
Kyrgyzstan -6.0 2.7 -15.1
Tajikistan 4.2 8.1 **
Uzbekistan 0.4 3.4 -2.7
Source: National statistical offices and EADB

3. Monitoring policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic
 IFPRI’s COVID-19 Policy Response Portal systematically captures policy responses
through multiple channels, including population restrictions, social protection, trade, health,
fiscal, and monetary measures
 Three broad categories of policy measures against COVID-19 pandemic: prevention,
mitigation & support to economy and sectors
 Trade restrictions and export bans
oKazakhstan – export quotas (wheat) and export ban (live animals)
oKyrgyzstan – export ban for six month on live animals (Nov 19, 2020)
oTajikistan – export ban on selected agric. and food products
 Support to agriculture and food security: support to farm activities, access to inputs,
protection of consumers and maintaining food prices

4. Phone-based household survey in southern Tajikistan
• Baseline survey was conducted in
September 2018
• This survey was conducted in
September-October 2020
• Sample size – 1200 households
• 1047 households from 2018 survey
• 153 new households
• Households have access to
• Household plots (1190) - 0.15ha
• Presidential plots (402) - 0.11 ha
• Dehkan farms (263) - 2.48 ha
• Rental plots (24)

5. More households switched
to cereals and fodder crops

6. Travel restrictions did not impact much the availability of
seed, but access to seed was affected due to higher prices
Relative to the same season last year, was it
easier to get seed?
Relative to the same season last year, how
does this price compare?

7. Travel restrictions did not impact the availability of chemicals,
but access to chemicals was affected due to higher prices
Relative to the same season last year, was it
easier to get chemicals?
Relative to the same season last year, how
does this price compare?

8. Only a fraction of households received financial support –
mostly from banks and relatives
Did your household receive any financial
support/credit?
Who did you get financial support/credit from?

9. About 30% of households have access to agriculture-related
information, and the majority receive it from relatives/friends
Did your household receive any agriculture-
related information?
Who did you seek agriculture-related
information from?

10. COVID-19 has lowered incomes for >40% of households,
including the poor and less-poor
Has there been any change in total household
income due to the COVID-19 pandemic?
If income changed, by what percentage?
Results by quartile of 2018 asset wealth

11. Job loss has affected almost 20% of households, and even
those with jobs face numerous workplace challenges
How many members of your household lost a
job due to Covid-19 pandemic?
Of those who have a job, how their employment
been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic?

12. Migration was and remains central to livelihoods despite
COVID-19
Was anyone in your household away as a
migrant before the Covid-19 pandemic started?
Is there anyone in your household who is
away as a migrant right now?
8%
92%
Female migrants
Male migrants

13. About 80% of migrant-sending households report
reduced remittances, and 8% had a return migrant due to
COVID-19
8%
92%
At least one migrant returned due to COVID-19
No migrant returned Have migrants sent fewer or more
remittances than usual due to COVID-19?

14. COVID-19 has lowered household expenditures,
especially for the poor and on food
If expenditures changed, by what percentage?
Results by quartile of 2018 asset wealth
On which categories of expenditure did you
spend less as a result of COVID-19?

15. COVID-19 has depleted savings (especially for the poor) &
asset stocks (especially the less-poor, who own more)
Did your household use savings to deal with the
change in expenditure or income?
Did your household sell assets to deal with
the change in expenditure or income?

16. Diets and dietary diversity have declined in response to
COVID-19, especially for the poor
Did household members reduce their food
consumption due to COVID-19? Results by
2018 asset wealth
Consider fruits, vegetables, meat/ poultry/
fish, and leafy greens. For how many of the 4
have you reduced consumption? Results by
2018 asset wealth

17. No evidence that women’s participation in intra-household
decision-making has further deteriorated due to COVID-19
Compared to a year ago, how is women's
degree of involvement in decision-making about
how to spend income?
Compared to a year ago, how is women's
degree of involvement in decision-making about
children (e.g., education, workload, diet, etc)?

18. Conclusions
 Trade restrictions seem to have raised food security concerns and more households
switched from cash crops to cereals and fodder crops
 Travel restrictions did not impact much the availability of inputs, but access to inputs was
affected due to higher prices
 Access to finance and agriculture-related information remain as an important hurdle for
rural households
 COVID-19 has contributed to job loss, underemployment, and reduced wages – ultimately
lowering incomes for over 40% of households (including the poor and less-poor)
 Despite the importance of migration to livelihoods in the region, COVID-19 has reduced
remittances for 80% of migrant-sending households, and 8% of these households have a
return migrant
 COVID-19 has depleted savings and asset stocks and lowered expenditures, and there is
evidence that it has worsened diets and dietary diversity

19. Thank you