Renewable energy: water land nexus, food-biofuels tradeoffs—the dark side of biofuels
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Renewable energy: water land nexus, food-biofuels tradeoffs—the dark side of biofuels Claudia Ringler, NEXUS Gains co-lead and International Food Policy Research Institute April 3, 2023 | Penn State University Water Energy Food Nexus 597 (002-LEC, Class 22311)
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Renewable energy: water land nexus, food-biofuels tradeoffs—the dark side of biofuels
- 1. Renewable energy: water- land nexus, food-biofuels tradeoffs—the dark side of biofuels Claudia Ringler, NEXUS Gains co-lead and International Food Policy Research Institute April 3, 2023 | Penn State University Water Energy Food Nexus 597 (002-LEC, Class 22311)
- 2. www.cgiar.org Water/Energy/Food/Environment (WEFE) Nexus Challenges in a Climate Crisis 2007-08 food, fuel & fertilizer crisis 2011-12 food, fuel & fertilizer crisis 2021-22 food, fuel & fertilizer crisis -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 GDP growth in LMICs Food, fuel & fertilizer price indices (2000=100) Source: Headey and Hirvonen (2022) using data from FAO, the World Bank and the IMF.
- 3. www.cgiar.org Water stress and associated risks increasing Source: Ringler et al. (2016). 36% 39% 22% 2.5 US$9.4 TRILLION Water stress risk BILLION PEOPLE TODAY Total population living in water scarce areas Global GDP generated in water scarce regions 52% 49% 45% US$63 TRILLION Total population living in water scarce areas 4.7 BILLION PEOPLE 90% 570% By 2050 Global GDP generated in water scarce regions population grain production global GDP
- 4. www.cgiar.org Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (US$/AF) Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-veles-water-index From a historic cost of US$0.2 per cubic meter to US$1.0 recently with several poor communities in California having to spend millions of US$ on the open market to keep their taps running
- 5. www.cgiar.org 150 million more people hungry in 2021 compared to 2019 Source: SOFI (2022).
- 7. www.cgiar.org US Energy Consumption, 2020 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2021) Monthly Energy Review May 2021.
- 8. www.cgiar.org Hydropower • 85% of all renewable energy in 2015, down to 60% in 2020 (IEA) • Hydropower can constrain or support irrigation (Zeng et al. 2017) • Development of multipurpose reservoirs, including for hydropower and irrigation can expand irrigated area into arid and hyper-arid areas that grow vulnerability during drought and climate change (WB 2016) • Particularly affected by climate change, “battery” function if combined with wind and solar • Large known adverse impacts on the environment
- 9. www.cgiar.org Energy consumption (million tons of oil equivalent), 2020 https://yearbook.enerdata.net/renewables/renewable-in-electricity-production-share.html
- 10. www.cgiar.org Solar energy: Large, global potential Africa 9.8 MWp India 511.9 MWp B’desh 22.3 MWp RoW 5.6 MWp
- 11. www.cgiar.org Source: IPCC WG3, AR6 2022. Biofuels continue to play a key role in mitigation
- 12. www.cgiar.org Biofuels essential in mitigation scenarios Source: Rystad Energy—photo from COP27
- 13. www.cgiar.org The role of biofuels 1) Promoted as a low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels as they could help to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change impacts from transportation 2) Large-scale development using maize in the United States under the US Energy Policy Act of 2005 has led to direct competition for land, water, energy, capital and labor between food and energy production; accounted possibly for around 30% of the 2007/08 food price hike 3) Three generations: 1st: corn ethanol or soy biodiesel, sunflower oil; 2nd: perennial grasses; 3rd: algae under development Jeswani et al. (2020)
- 14. www.cgiar.org The role of biofuels 1) If no land-use change (LUC) is involved, first-generation biofuels can—on average— have lower GHG emissions than fossil fuels 2) Second-generation biofuels have, in general, a greater potential to reduce the emissions, provided there is no LUC. 3) Third-generation biofuels do not represent a feasible option at present state of development as their GHG emissions are higher than those from fossil fuels
- 15. www.cgiar.org The role of biofuels-environmental impacts 1) Land use and biodiversity impacts [EU palmoil story] 2) Food security impacts 3) Water use impacts 4) Water pollution impacts 5) Human health impacts 6) Larger greenhouse gas emissions if LUC is considered
- 16. www.cgiar.org Source: IPCC WG3, AR6 2022. EU palmoil imports by end use
- 17. www.cgiar.org The role of biofuels-environmental impacts IPCC WG3 AR6, April 2022
- 18. www.cgiar.org Unit costs of some renewables has come down Source: IPCC WG3, AR6 2022.
- 19. www.cgiar.org Advantages and challenges of solar IPCC WG3 AR6, April 2022 ❖ In most cases, increased water depletion ❖ Often expansion of irrigated area ❖ Solar irrigation is taking off, BUT still only 0.3 m in India, compared to 5-10 mdiesel pumps ✓ Improved ‘water control’ ✓ Higher land and labour productivity ✓ Higher gross and net returns ✓ Improved food and nutritional security ✓ Improved climate resilience ✓ Lower carbon footprint ✓ If extra energy is fed back to the grid, some incentive to reduce depletion
- 20. www.cgiar.org War in Ukraine: further strengthened the Nexus between energy and food prices, implications for water and the environment yet to be assessed
- 21. www.cgiar.org War in Ukraine: Russia account for 15% of global trade in nitrogenous fertilizers
- 22. www.cgiar.org Perceptions of why energy prices increased 0 20 40 60 80 Because of God’s will Because of COVID-19 Because of weather / climate change [e.g. drought/high temperatures/lack of rain.… Because of the Ukraine war Bad government Share of respondents Total Male Female Rural Honduras Because of weather / climate change [e.g. Because of God’s will Because of COVID-19 Because of the Ukraine war Bad government Rural Bangladesh 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Many reasons Because of God's will Others Because of COVID-19 Unfavorable government policies Because of the Ukraine war Female Male Rural northern Ghana
- 24. www.cgiar.org Renewable transitions are important, but wider impacts need to be better assessed and factored into assessments • Access to clean energy for all reduces pressure on deforestation and improves rural incomes, and through mitigating climate change, improves everyone’s outcomes • Access to clean/renewable energy, without a strong policy environment, can lead to further environmental degradation (unchecked irrigation development, groundwater depletion, overapplication of chemicals) • Renewable energy solutions are important, but their investment needs a systems assessment—some are highly water intensive (biofuels) or increase the risk of water depletion and degradation (solar-irrigation) or have other environmental impacts(hydropower/ wind) • Energy, food and water prices are increasingly interlinked and policies to reduce prices in one sector need to consider impacts on prices in the other two sectors → NEXUS assessments are important