Rapid addition of wind and solar energy puts technical and economic pressure on the existing energy system. Increasing flexibility is key to integration of large shares of variable renewables, and in enabling an affordable renewables-led system. But how to achieve this? And what role will bioenergy play?

1. Increased need for
flexibility in the
European energy
transition
Ilkka Hannula
FLEXCHX workshop
Kaunas, Lithuania, April 2019
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious

2. How would an ideal low-carbon
transition look on paper?
Orderly decarbonisation
of baseload driven by
gradually increasing
carbon price:
1. Efficiency improvements
2. Fuel switching
3. Carbon capture & storage
4. Renewables
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 2

3. What has happened instead?
3
EUROPEAN EMISSION ALLOWANCES PRICE, €/tCO2
Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/co2-emissionsrechte

4. What has happened instead?
4Source: Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis – Version 12.0

5. Alternative vs. Conventional
Source: Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis – Version 12.0
Large-scalewindandsolar

6. Alternative vs. Conventional
Source: Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis – Version 12.0
 The cost of wind and solar has already reached the cost of
conventional technologies in many locations globally.
 The trend is likely to continue, and will eventually lead to high
shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) in the energy system.
 VRE will make the system more volatile.

7. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 7Source: Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems

8. CAISO ”Duck curve”
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 8Source: CAISO (2016). Fast facts: What the duck curve tells us about managing a green grid.
People start
waking up
Sun comes up
Sunset begins
Demand
decrease
Over generation risk,
possible need to
curtail (turn off) PV

9. CAISO ”Duck curve”
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 9Source: CAISO (2016). Fast facts: What the duck curve tells us about managing a green grid.
People start
waking up
Sun comes up
Sunset begins
Demand
decrease
Over generation risk,
possible need to
curtail (turn off) PV
 Rapid addition of new VRE generation puts technical
and financial pressure on the existing generators
originally designed to supply baseload
 How to best maintain the stability and reliability of the
future low-carbon energy system?

10. ”Natural gas ♥ renewables”
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 10

11.  General Electric and EDF Energy
natural gas plant (9HA turbine) in
Bouchain France “is capable of
reaching full power (600 MW) in
less than 30 minutes.”
 Sets a new record for a thermal
power plant, achieving 62 %
electrical efficiency.
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 11
”Natural gas ♥ renewables”
Source: https://www.ge.com/power/about/insights/articles/2016/04/power-plant-efficiency-record

12.  General Electric and EDF Energy
natural gas plant (9HA turbine) in
Bouchain France “is capable of
reaching full power (600 MW) in
less than 30 minutes.”
 Sets a new record for a thermal
power plant, achieving 62 %
electrical efficiency.
 Below ~150 g/kWh VRE + fossil
back-up system starts becoming
too polluting.
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 12
”Natural gas ♥ renewables”
Source: https://www.ge.com/power/about/insights/articles/2016/04/power-plant-efficiency-record
 VRE + fossil back-up a bridge to lower-carbon system.
 Pushing below ~150 g/kWh increasingly difficult with fossil-
fired generation even in back-up role
 Meeting the goals of Paris Agreement requires almost zero-
carbon system.
 IEA projects 40 g/kWh carbon intensity by 2050 for power
generation globally in their 2C scenario.

13. Flexibility is key to integration of renewables
Flexible resources
Supply-side
Demand-side
Grid reinforcements
Storage
Sector coupling
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 13

14.  Flexible technologies help both VRE and baseload
 Flexibility helps VRE generation by
• Shifing demand to periods of high VRE generation
• Storing of excess VRE for periods of high demand
 Flexibility helps fossil-fired generation by
• Smoothing out some of the volatility
• Increasing capacity factors
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 14Source: BNEF (2018). Flexibility Solutions for High-Renewable Energy Systems
Carbon price still needed to ensure low
carbon transition

15. Four phases of VRE system integration
I. First VRE plants deployed, no noticeable impact on the system
II. VRE has minor to moderate impact, existing system can integrate
III. VRE generation dominates operation of the system
 Improved grid infrastructure, interconnections, effective short-term
wholesale markets, plant retrofits for flexibility
IV. VRE occationally makes up almost all generation
 Advanced technologies, Demand-side response, energy storage
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 15Source: IEA (2019). Will system integration of renewables be a major challenge by 2023?

16. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 16
Source: https://www.iea.org/newsroom/energysnapshots/share-of-vre-generation.html

17. Cost levels that deliver renewables-led
system in Northern Europe
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 17
VTT Scenarios Descriptions
Conservative 40% wind and PV, of which wind 75%
High-Wind 60% wind and PV, of which wind 85%
High-PV 60% wind and PV, of which wind 70%
VTT scenarios Wind (€/kW) PV (€/kW) CO2 (€/ton)
Conservative 1600 550 12
High-Wind 1310 520 49
High-PV 1340 270 49
Compare with current prices*
- On-shore Wind: 1000 – 1400 €/kW
- Utility scale PV: 850 – 1100 €/kw
- Emission allowance: 22 €/tCO2
*Source: Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis – Version 12.0

18. Relevant flexibility options for
Northern Europe
 Building more flexible thermal generation units
 Building more transmission lines
 Heating sector (DH and buildings) development
• Electric boilers
• Heat pumps
• Heat storages
 Co-generation units
 Price sensitive demand response
 Batteries (hours)
 Pumped hydropower (in Norway)
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 18
Source: Kiviluoma et al. (2017). Comparison of flexibility options to improve the value of variable power generation

19. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 19
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
Source: Kiviluoma (2016). Balancing with Bioenergy (presentation for IEA Bioenergy report ”Bioenergy in balancing the grid”).

20. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 20
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
Source: Kiviluoma (2016). Balancing with Bioenergy (presentation for IEA Bioenergy report ”Bioenergy in balancing the grid”).

21. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 21
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
Source: Kiviluoma (2016). Balancing with Bioenergy (presentation for IEA Bioenergy report ”Bioenergy in balancing the grid”).

22. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 22
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
Source: Kiviluoma (2016). Balancing with Bioenergy (presentation for IEA Bioenergy report ”Bioenergy in balancing the grid”).

23. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 23
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
Source: Kiviluoma (2016). Balancing with Bioenergy (presentation for IEA Bioenergy report ”Bioenergy in balancing the grid”).

24. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 24
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
Source: Kiviluoma (2016). Balancing with Bioenergy (presentation for IEA Bioenergy report ”Bioenergy in balancing the grid”).

25. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 25
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
Source: Kiviluoma (2016). Balancing with Bioenergy (presentation for IEA Bioenergy report ”Bioenergy in balancing the grid”).

26. 4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 26
Duration curve for power generation in the Nordics
GW
 Above >50% wind share, 0 GW need for capacity
running 8000 h/yr.
 However, 20 GW need for
• 4500 – 8000 h and
• 1000 – 4500 h generation
 This generation needs to be near zero carbon
 How to make the economics work?
 What is the role of bioenergy in this?

27. Bioenergy has unique
features
 Co-generation with flexible output ratios
• Heat + Power
• Fuels + Power
• Fuels + Heat + Power
 Sustainable chemical energy carriers
• Solid-biomass peaker plants (1000 h/yr)
challenging for bioenergy logistics?
• Baseload production of storable
intermediate with high energy intensity (i.e.
liquid fuel) more attractive?
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 27

28. 28Source: Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems
BIOENERGY
HERE
BIOENERGY
ALSO
HERE

29. More flexible biomass power boilers?
Targets for future design
• Very low partial loads
• Fast start-ups
• Fast load change rates
• Good emissions performance
across operation
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 29
Figure: Valmet.com

30. Liquid fuels for peaker plants?
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 30
Thermochemical
conversion
Storage IC engine
Biomass
~80% of total CapEx running 8000 h/yr Baseload
Flexible

31. Co-production of fuels, power and heat?
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 31
Thermochemical
conversion
Fuels
Biomass
~80% of total CapEx running 8000 h/yr Baseload
Flexible
IC engine
Heat

32. Bioenergy with demand-side flexibility
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 32
Source: VTT-coordinated H2020 project: FLEXCHX

33. Summary 1/2
o Increased flexibility key to renewables integration
o Not only generation, but also transmission,
demand response, storages & sector coupling
o VRE + flexibility do not automatically
phase out coal (carbon price needed)
o Integration of power, heat, industrial and transport
sectors is a key to an affordable renewables-led
system (electricity coming fast to heating sector)
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 33

34. Summary 2/2
 Bioenergy has some unique advantages
• Dispatchable low-carbon generation
• Production of chemical energy carriers
• Ability to co-produce and address several energy
sectors from a single plant.
 Winning bioenergy concepts not yet sufficiently
analysed
• Combining base load production with flexibility
features possibly a key
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 34

35. www.ieabioenergy.com
Member states
 Australia
 Austria
 Finland
 Germany
 Ireland
 The Netherlands
 Sweden
 Switzerland
 USA
35
New IEA Bioenergy Task 44:
”Flexible bioenergy and system integration”
Content (2019 – 2021)
WP1 - Flexible bioenergy concepts for
supporting low-carbon energy systems
WP2 - Acceleration of implementation
WP3 - System requirements for
bioenergy concepts
WP4 - Intertask projects and
collaborative projects.

36. www.ieabioenergy.com http://task44.ieabioenergy.com36
Our website & LinkedIn group. More to come
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13682476/

37. Bibliography
 BNEF (2018). Flexibility Solutions for High-Renewable Energy Systems
 CAISO (2016). Fast facts: What the duck curve tells us about managing a green grid.
 Flexibility in 21st Century Power Systems. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/61721.pdf
 FLEXCHX H2020 project. http://www.flexchx.eu
 IEA Bioenergy (2017). Bioenergy's role in balancing the electricity grid and providing
storage options – an EU perspective
 IEA (2019). Will system integration of renewables be a major challenge by 2023?
 IRENA (2018). Power system flexibility for the energy transition. Part 1: Overview for policy
makers.
 Kiviluoma, J., Rinne, E. and Helistö, N. (2017). Comparison of flexibility options to improve
the value of variable power generation. International Journal of Sustainable Energy 37.
 Lazard (2018). Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis – Version 12.0
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 37

38. Thank you!
ilkka.hannula@vtt.fi
4.4.2019 VTT – beyond the obvious 38