The Future cannot be Predicted: It can be Objectively Studied
1. THE FUTURE CANNOT BE PREDICTED: IT
CAN BE OBJECTIVELY STUDIED
Harish Shah (Sole-Proprietor @ Stratserv Consultancy, Singapore)
2. DYNAMISM OF FUTURE TIME
• You cannot tell what tomorrow will bring
• There are no guarantees
• Impossible to create an accurate image of what is yet to occur
• The possibilities are infinite
• Plans can always be impacted by unknowns
• The Future is always a mystery until it arrives
3. IMPORTANCE OF FUTURE STUDIES
• Despite being unpredictable, the Future needs to be anticipated
• We need to plan for the Future
• We need Long-term Projections & Forecasts
• To set Goals
• To set Standards
• To set Milestones
• For Progress
• For Survival
4. STUDYING THE FUTURE:
OBJECTIVELY
• Scenario Planning
• Based upon what is known
• Based upon certainties
• Based upon the past
• Look to the Past
• For the secrets of the Future
• Ask:
• What happened in history?
• What are the historical patterns?
• Derive Possibilities based on past Trends & patterns
• Create Forward Sequences based on Past Sequences
5. STUDYING THE FUTURE:
OBJECTIVELY
• Scenario Planning
• Based upon the Present
• Based upon what is real now
• Based upon what is happening
• Based upon what is in development
• Based upon changes that are in progress
• Likely impacts in the Future
• In Convergence
• Technology
• Society
• People
6. STUDYING THE FUTURE:
OBJECTIVELY
• Evidence Based
• Scientific Basis is necessary
• If there is no indicator that something is Scientifically Possible today, it should
not be a factor for forecasting or projection
• Anything unproven or without Scientific Basis is unlikely to provide a useful
product
• On the contrary, it will likely turn out to be a speculation no more than a;
• Fantasy
• Imagination
• Dream
• Remember the Primary Purpose: To be useful in Planning
7. CREATING THE MOST LIKELY
FUTURE: THE IMPORTANCE
• Back-Casting
• From an Ideal Future State
• At a Critical or Key Milestone Point in Time Ahead
• Based on Realistic Possibilities
• Derived from evidence based study or scan of Past & Present
• To more near-term time-frames or timelines for:
• Planning
• Target Setting
• “Reverse Engineering”
• Ideas
• Innovation Thinking
• Models
8. FUTURE STUDIES: THE BENEFITS
• Be Prepared for Change – Before it happens
• Accelerate the Positive
• Mitigate the Negative – Through Pre-emptive Measures
• Example: Environmental Destruction
• Enable Pro-active Measures
• Sustainable Plans & Strategies
• That remain relevant
9. FUTURE STUDIES: THE CHALLENGES
• Human Nature
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We
We
We
We
We
We
We
We
We
We
are not rational
are not objective
are prone to bias
are idealistic
are selfish
are subjective
are myopic
are adversarial
are prone to denial
like to Predict and Speculate