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First Plenary Session
Sharia Economics Conference 2013
Hannover, Germany – February 9, 2013



      Jamal D. Harwood
      Economic Analyst / Lecturer, University of Wales
      Sarfraz A. Wali
      Economics commentator / Community Speaker

      THE GROWTH IMPERATIVE OF CAPITALISM
            & THE ISLAMIC ALTERNATIVE
Current Context
   Property booms 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s
   Consumer booms 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s
   Stock Market booms including dot.com bubble early 2000’s
   Bond Market bubble to date
   Unprecedented money creation, cheap credit
   Unprecedented growth of derivatives
   Unprecedented budget deficits in the developed world
   Policy of Central Banks to reduce interest rates to close to zero
   “Non-conventional” funding policies of Central Banks (QE, Operation twist)
   Non-conventional and widespread changes to metrics (inflation, employment)
   Negative real rates of interest
   Growing inflation problem
   Banking crisis
   Sovereign debt crisis
   Growth crisis – crisis of confidence – lack of trust in Politicians


09/02/2013                  First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood             2
Capitalist Failures =
     Growth Imperative
• Role of Interest based monetary system
  Debt service = Money Supply growth
  Growth in output needed to avoid hyperinflation

• Inability to survive deflationary environment
  Penalization of debtors
  Monetary policy becomes ineffective
  Delaying Consumption in deflationary environment

• Negative Effects of the Growth Imperative
  Growth of debt industry due to Consumerism
  Consumerism = Planned and perceived Obsolescence
  Resource depletion and unsustainability
09/02/2013       First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood & Sarfraz A. Wali   3
Recovery in Growth?




09/02/2013   First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   4
Can you trust the
                numbers?




09/02/2013            First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   5
Adjusted for real
              inflation rate




09/02/2013            First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   6
Money Supply Growth




09/02/2013   First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   7
Growth in Money Supply




09/02/2013   First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood & Sarfraz A. Wali   8
Debt Created and Taken
 by the Federal Reserve




09/02/2013   First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   9
What happened in 1917
       and 1971?




09/02/2013   First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   10
US Debt is not
              Sustainable




                           RED – Public Debt (US)
                 Black – Public Debt plus Federal Debt (US)
09/02/2013        First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood & Sarfraz A. Wali   11
World Debt Crisis




09/02/2013       First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   12
The Casino Market




09/02/2013    First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   13
Islam’s Vision re Growth

 "In case it (wealth) circulates solely among the wealthy from
 amongst you."
 [Translation of the meaning the Quran surah Al-Hashr, 59:7]

    Notion of wealth circulation to ensure a robust economy that meets the
    needs of the people
    Growth is not a core objective of the economy but a pleasant outcome
    Environment which encourages spending and investment
    Gold/Silver currency the most stable currency and non-inflationary system
    Wealth oriented taxation – shunning income and consumption taxes
    Non interest coupled with anti-hoarding provisions
    Direct Investment and involvement within company/partnerships


09/02/2013                 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood        14
Despite money printing
  money velocity is poor




09/02/2013    First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   15
Strategic Growth
 Advantages of Shariah 1
     Gold Silver based Currency
      o Currency stability over millenia and a level playing field between Nations
      o Only mild instances of deflation and inflation
      o No counterparty risk, with manageable growth in currency
      o Universally accepted, promotes sound and low cost trade policies
     Non Interest Economy
      o Low cost risk based investment model without banking intermediaries
      o Debt based creation of money out of control and grossly destabilising
      o Advantages of G/S currency can only function with non-interest system
      o Perversely Central Banks effectively moving to zero interest rate policies
     Non-Hoarding of Wealth Provisions
      o Key to circulation of wealth – connected with explicit textual evidences
      o Compare with the banking system which withdraws capital during downturns
      o Investment, charitable giving, consumer spending – positive outcomes
      o Business cycle downturns work against investment and spending

09/02/2013                  First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood           16
Strategic Growth
 Advantages of Shariah 2
     Wealth based taxation policy
       o Zakat (2.5% on non-utilised wealth) Kharaj/Ushr on capacity of land, Jizyah
       o No Income, Consumption, Business, Rates, Council, Transport taxes
       o Wealth taxes are proportionate to wealth – fair on all (natural redistribution)
       o Strong incentive for investment and spending and full employment
     Equity/Partnership financing
       o Direct investment with responsibility – no stock market
       o No start-up barriers (bureaucratic) and small business employment driver
       o Corporate scandals engendered where Directors are not owners (body)
       o Maximum corporate transparency
     Absence of Limited Liability
       o Risk profile reflects what business owners can adopt
       o Leveraged risk taking difficult due to non interest and full liability
       o Encourages trade with clear counterparty responsibility for all transactions
       o No government bailouts of companies

09/02/2013                    First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood                17
Strategic Growth
 Advantages of Shariah 3
     Prohibition of Gambling
       o All gambling including most derivative contracts forbidden
       o Derivatives increasing volatility in markets at higher risk levels
       o Gambling in all forms take wealth out of circulation/trade
       o Unacceptable losses to society via moral hazard

     Intellectual Property Rights
       o Knowledge purchased along with the good or service where obtainable
       o Faster product development and innovation

     Flexible Labour Markets
       o Wages can go up and down based upon the value of the work/service
       o Equal pay for the same value of work for male/female and age of employees




09/02/2013                     First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood         18
Strategic Growth
 Advantages of Shariah 4
     Land Reform
       o Use it or lose it (3 years)
       o Revival of dead, unused lands promotes widest ownership among masses
       o No leasing of agricultural land
       o Land tax encouraging full utilisation
       o Laws against price fixing

     Ethical Trade Rights
       o Clear annulment and set-aside provisions where trade is not fair
       o Full trade descriptions required
       o Protections for young and vulnerable (orphans, disabled)

     Regulatory Framework
      o No monopoly, strong anti-fraud provisions
      o Stable regulatory environment – laws consistent over 1400 years
      o Lobbying unlawful
09/02/2013                    First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood           19
Contact

Recent publication (freely downloadable):
          thegoldreport.co.uk

Twitter: jamal_harwood

Daily Blog: 2nights3days.info
www.breakthrougheconomics.blogspot.com
www.newcivilisation.com
09/02/2013       First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood   20

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The Growth Imperative of Capitalism & The Islamic Alternative

  • 1. First Plenary Session Sharia Economics Conference 2013 Hannover, Germany – February 9, 2013 Jamal D. Harwood Economic Analyst / Lecturer, University of Wales Sarfraz A. Wali Economics commentator / Community Speaker THE GROWTH IMPERATIVE OF CAPITALISM & THE ISLAMIC ALTERNATIVE
  • 2. Current Context Property booms 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s Consumer booms 80’s, 90’s and 2000’s Stock Market booms including dot.com bubble early 2000’s Bond Market bubble to date Unprecedented money creation, cheap credit Unprecedented growth of derivatives Unprecedented budget deficits in the developed world Policy of Central Banks to reduce interest rates to close to zero “Non-conventional” funding policies of Central Banks (QE, Operation twist) Non-conventional and widespread changes to metrics (inflation, employment) Negative real rates of interest Growing inflation problem Banking crisis Sovereign debt crisis Growth crisis – crisis of confidence – lack of trust in Politicians 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 2
  • 3. Capitalist Failures = Growth Imperative • Role of Interest based monetary system Debt service = Money Supply growth Growth in output needed to avoid hyperinflation • Inability to survive deflationary environment Penalization of debtors Monetary policy becomes ineffective Delaying Consumption in deflationary environment • Negative Effects of the Growth Imperative Growth of debt industry due to Consumerism Consumerism = Planned and perceived Obsolescence Resource depletion and unsustainability 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood & Sarfraz A. Wali 3
  • 4. Recovery in Growth? 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 4
  • 5. Can you trust the numbers? 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 5
  • 6. Adjusted for real inflation rate 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 6
  • 7. Money Supply Growth 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 7
  • 8. Growth in Money Supply 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood & Sarfraz A. Wali 8
  • 9. Debt Created and Taken by the Federal Reserve 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 9
  • 10. What happened in 1917 and 1971? 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 10
  • 11. US Debt is not Sustainable RED – Public Debt (US) Black – Public Debt plus Federal Debt (US) 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood & Sarfraz A. Wali 11
  • 12. World Debt Crisis 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 12
  • 13. The Casino Market 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 13
  • 14. Islam’s Vision re Growth "In case it (wealth) circulates solely among the wealthy from amongst you." [Translation of the meaning the Quran surah Al-Hashr, 59:7] Notion of wealth circulation to ensure a robust economy that meets the needs of the people Growth is not a core objective of the economy but a pleasant outcome Environment which encourages spending and investment Gold/Silver currency the most stable currency and non-inflationary system Wealth oriented taxation – shunning income and consumption taxes Non interest coupled with anti-hoarding provisions Direct Investment and involvement within company/partnerships 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 14
  • 15. Despite money printing money velocity is poor 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 15
  • 16. Strategic Growth Advantages of Shariah 1 Gold Silver based Currency o Currency stability over millenia and a level playing field between Nations o Only mild instances of deflation and inflation o No counterparty risk, with manageable growth in currency o Universally accepted, promotes sound and low cost trade policies Non Interest Economy o Low cost risk based investment model without banking intermediaries o Debt based creation of money out of control and grossly destabilising o Advantages of G/S currency can only function with non-interest system o Perversely Central Banks effectively moving to zero interest rate policies Non-Hoarding of Wealth Provisions o Key to circulation of wealth – connected with explicit textual evidences o Compare with the banking system which withdraws capital during downturns o Investment, charitable giving, consumer spending – positive outcomes o Business cycle downturns work against investment and spending 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 16
  • 17. Strategic Growth Advantages of Shariah 2 Wealth based taxation policy o Zakat (2.5% on non-utilised wealth) Kharaj/Ushr on capacity of land, Jizyah o No Income, Consumption, Business, Rates, Council, Transport taxes o Wealth taxes are proportionate to wealth – fair on all (natural redistribution) o Strong incentive for investment and spending and full employment Equity/Partnership financing o Direct investment with responsibility – no stock market o No start-up barriers (bureaucratic) and small business employment driver o Corporate scandals engendered where Directors are not owners (body) o Maximum corporate transparency Absence of Limited Liability o Risk profile reflects what business owners can adopt o Leveraged risk taking difficult due to non interest and full liability o Encourages trade with clear counterparty responsibility for all transactions o No government bailouts of companies 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 17
  • 18. Strategic Growth Advantages of Shariah 3 Prohibition of Gambling o All gambling including most derivative contracts forbidden o Derivatives increasing volatility in markets at higher risk levels o Gambling in all forms take wealth out of circulation/trade o Unacceptable losses to society via moral hazard Intellectual Property Rights o Knowledge purchased along with the good or service where obtainable o Faster product development and innovation Flexible Labour Markets o Wages can go up and down based upon the value of the work/service o Equal pay for the same value of work for male/female and age of employees 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 18
  • 19. Strategic Growth Advantages of Shariah 4 Land Reform o Use it or lose it (3 years) o Revival of dead, unused lands promotes widest ownership among masses o No leasing of agricultural land o Land tax encouraging full utilisation o Laws against price fixing Ethical Trade Rights o Clear annulment and set-aside provisions where trade is not fair o Full trade descriptions required o Protections for young and vulnerable (orphans, disabled) Regulatory Framework o No monopoly, strong anti-fraud provisions o Stable regulatory environment – laws consistent over 1400 years o Lobbying unlawful 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 19
  • 20. Contact Recent publication (freely downloadable): thegoldreport.co.uk Twitter: jamal_harwood Daily Blog: 2nights3days.info www.breakthrougheconomics.blogspot.com www.newcivilisation.com 09/02/2013 First Plenary Session: Jamal D. Harwood 20