Presented on May 3, 2012 for InnoTech Oregon. All rights reserved.

1. 5/7/2012
The Collaboration of Disruptive
Technology
The Future is about technology and a lot more. It is about how do we use emerging
technologies such as new types of mobile platforms, html5, the Cloud redefined, the
movement of social into the business world and the rapid fire introductions of new
technology? Disruptive technologies will change the landscape even more. How can we
ba a ce the ast
balance t e fast pace o innovation with bot workforce a d ou o
of o at o t both o o ce and our own life ba a ce
e balance?
This session will provide the audience with a future perspective, not only where technology
is headed but how it will impact our businesses and the way we work. The line between all
aspects of technology, business, and family is blurring as the trend to bring your own
technology to work and connect it to the network accelerates. Where is this future heading?
The
Collaboration
of Disruptive
Technology
David Smith
CEO HBMGInc.
dsmith@HBMGINC.com
linkedin.com/in/davidsmithaustin
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2. 5/7/2012
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
Challenges in the 21st century
Information
Safety & Explosion Knowledge
Security Economy
Accelerating Globalization
Change
International
Partnerships
Complex
Technologies
Finite
Diverse Resources
Workforce
Sustainable
Life-Long Development
Learning Citizen
Engagement
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3. 5/7/2012
Information and Communication
Trends
• Seamless Interoperability Between
Heterogeneous Networks
• M bili for All
Mobility f
• User Centered Content-Based Information
Access
• Agents Take Over Routine Work
• “E” P
“E”- Processes f B i
for Business and Private Life
d P i t Lif
• Human Computer Interaction is Turning Into
Human Computer Cooperation
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
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4. 5/7/2012
The Limits of Technology
Fundamental
• The laws of physics
• The laws of software
• The challenge of algorithms
• The difficulty of distribution
• The problems of design
• The importance of organization
• The impact of economics
• The influence of politics
• The limits of human imagination
Human
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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5. 5/7/2012
The Growth Of Complexity
Higher
Technical
Complexity
DOD
weapon
Embedded system
automotive Telecom switch National Air
application Commercial Traffic Control
compiler System
Lower Higher
Management Management
Complexity Large-scale
simulation
Complexity
Small
scientific Enterprise
simulation Enterprise information
application systems DOD
management
information
system
Business
spreadsheet
Lower
Technical
Complexity
What use could this company make
of an electrical toy?
With those words, William Orton,
president of Western Union, dismissed
the newfangled gadget offered to him
for $100,000 in 1876.
Other leading lights echoed his
skepticism.
“An interesting novelty,” financier J.P.
g y
Morgan huffed.
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6. 5/7/2012
Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity
Economic & Financial Virtual Worlds
Technology
Acceleration Cyber Warfare
Russia - China Intangible
K-12 Science Capital
& Math Crisis Pandemic
Terrorism Global Talent
Explosion
Offshore
Competition
p English as 2nd
3 Billion New Demographics
Capitalists
Economic Unions
Flat Wages Regional Economic End of Moore’s Law
Dislocation
Disruptors can be:
 Technology
 Regulatory
 Economic
 Civil
 Natural Disasters
…
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7. 5/7/2012
Business, Knowledge, and Innovation Landscape
• Typically 80% of the key knowledge (and value) is held
by 20% of the p p – we need to get it to the right
y people g g
people
• Only 20% of the knowledge in an organization is
typically used (the rest being undiscovered or under-
utilized)
• 80-90% of the products and services today will be
80 90%
obsolete in 10 years – companies need to innovate &
invent faster
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
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8. 5/7/2012
New Economic Superpowers in 2050?
Innovation is Accelerating
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9. 5/7/2012
The “Fat Pipe”
Broadband and Online Households
100%
90%
ds
Percentage of Household
80%
Online
70% Households
60%
Broadband
50% Households
Broadband Access 2008
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc.
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10. 5/7/2012
Growth of Broadband Users
4,000
3,500
3,000
Millions of Users
2,500 Cellular
Subscribers
2,000
World Broadband 20
1,500 Broadband
Users
1,000
Internet
500 Users
005
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Historical Data Source: ITU Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc.
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
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11. 5/7/2012
From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com
Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing
A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has:
• A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service transparent to the
user
• Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are added
• A service management platform
2010
2000
Cloud Computing
1998
Software as a Service
1990 • Next-Generation
Utility Computing • Network-based Internet computing
Grid Computing
• Offering computing subscriptions to
• Solving large applications • Next-Generation
resources as a
problems with Data Centers
metered service
parallel computing • Gained momentum
• Introduced in late in 2001
• Made mainstream by 1990s
Globus Alliance
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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12. 5/7/2012
A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress
is Clear.
1.5x
Explosion of information
driving 54% growth in
storage shipments
every year.
70¢ per $1
70% on average is spent
on maintaining current IT
infrastructures versus
adding new capabilities.
85% idle
In distributed computing
environments,
environments up to
85% of computing
capacity sits idle.
70%+ Never
recover
Of business never
recover from a major
Howard Levenson, IBM data disaster.
Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of
Control
Physical
Spending Server Installed
Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Cooling Base (Millions)
US$(B) and Management/Administration
$250
50
Power and Cooling Costs 45
4
Server Mgt and Admin Costs
$200 New Server Spending 40
35
$150
30
25
$100 20
15
$50 10
5
$0 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
IDC
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13. 5/7/2012
The “Cloud Pyramid”
Build upon a foundation
Layers equate structure
Building blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms,
Applications
Breadth vs. Niche
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed
1000’s of Cloud Applications currently
Handful of Cloud Platforms
Elite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers
# of Marketplace providers
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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14. 5/7/2012
Ubiquitous Connectivity
010 © HBMG, Inc
For the rest of the world, this is
the Internet
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
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15. 5/7/2012
Embeddedness
The Invisible Computer
EmbeddednessDigital convergence
technologies will “form the invisible technical
infrastructure for human actionanalogous
to the visible infrastructure provided by
buildings and cities.”
Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective
computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization,
ubiquitous communication, and advanced
materials and sensing devices.
t i l d i d i
In 2000, 98% of computing devices sold are
embedded in products and are not apparent
to the product’s user.
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
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16. 5/7/2012
Exposures
1. Increased Dependency on Complex
Technologies and Business Processes
2. Steep Decline of Barriers to Trade
3. Speed of Transactions
4. The Death of Distance
5. The Adoption of Advanced Communications
6. Consolidation/Transformation of Traditional
Industries
7. The Internet and the Abundance of Information
8. Infrastructure
9. Overcommitted Agencies
10.Changing Social Constructs
Threats and Vulnerabilities
– What’s at Stake
• Critical Infrastructures
• Key Resources
• New Resources
– The Case for Action
• Cyber Threats
• Insider Threats
• External Threats
• Cyber Terrorism
• Physical Attacks
32
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17. 5/7/2012
Risk Management And Needed Security
High
mpact
Unacceptable Risk
Business defines im
Impact to business
Risk management
drives risk to an
acceptable level
Acceptable Risk
Probability of exploit
Low High
Security engineering defines probability
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18. 5/7/2012
Common Infrastructure for
Digital Information
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
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19. 5/7/2012
Characteristics of Agents
Agents dynamically adapt Agents coordinate
to and learn about and negotiate to achieve
their environment common goals
Social
Intelligent Adaptive Cooperative Personality Information
Agents Agents
Autonomous Mobile Interoperate
Agents are goal directed Agents interoperate
Agents move
and act on their with humans, other,
to where they
own performing legacy systems, and
are needed
tasks on your behalf information sources
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
Autonomic Networks
Self-configuring : Adapt Self-healing:
automatically to the Discover, diagnose,
dynamically changing and react to
environments of link and disruptions from
node failures. Self- Self-
Self- Self- catastrophes and
attacks.
Configuring Healing
Self-optimizing: Monitor Self- Self-
Self- Self- Self-protecting:
and tune resources Anticipate, detect,
automatically during an
Optimizing Protecting identify, and protect
attack to minimize its against attacks from
attack during and in the anywhere (safety )
(safety.)
aftermath.
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20. 5/7/2012
Digital Convergence—
Drivers for a New Technology Revolution
• Business and Social Globalization
• “Always-On” Generations
y
• Virtual Worlds
• Universal Access and Exchange of
Information
• Digitalization
• Real Time in Business and Personal
• Sustainable
• New Lifestyles
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
Convergence is…
1. Interfacing of mission critical systems
– Zero time provisioning & de-provisioning
– Employees continue to use the tools that they’ve always used
– Event correlation & forensics
2. One card solutions for physical security and IT
– Leverage investments
– Reduced total cost of ownership
3. Software controlled processes
– User self-service web portals with e-mail notifications
self service e mail
– Automation with audit trails (e.g. – compliance ready)
– Risk management
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21. 5/7/2012
The Good Old Days for PC
For a long time way back in “Ye Olde Days,”
traditional IT management pretended that PCs
didn’t exist. (Would you like some COBOL with your
MVS system?)
While they were in “denial,” people bought the PCs
they wanted and “administered” them themselves.
Productivity increased immensely, at least for a while
y y,
While that sometimes worked well, other times chaos
reigned
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22. 5/7/2012
The Modern Era
Today's more closely managed “enterprise” model
was the response to that anarchy.
At some sites, standardized PC configurations are
purchased and tightly locked down and are then
centrally administered.
43
Does The Following Sound Familiar?
Users find mobile devices useful.
Some IT folks find mobile devices threatening, or easy
to dismiss, or too expensive, or simply irrelevant.
Users buy what they want and use them in innovate
ways
44
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23. 5/7/2012
Even as cloud take hold, the IT landscape
is changing rapidly…
Technology is rapidly being
commoditized
Businesses are more
willing and able to shop for
IT services
In-house IT infrastructure is
increasingly seen as
complex and rigid
© Harvard Business Review
Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc
The Flip-Flop is Here!
Most technology in the hands of consumers
today –mobile phones, broadband
networking, comp ters
net orking computers and printers– all
printers ll
started out in business applications.
• NOW, individual
consumers will bring the
technology back into the
workplace.
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24. 5/7/2012
Motorola Atrix 4G
There’s also a laptop dock for the Atrix 4G now…
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Company App Stores
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Hierarchy of Needs
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
Collaboration Technologies
Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.
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28. 5/7/2012
Competing in a Global Business Environment
Taylor’s Law Sarnoff’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law
(1910 – 1950s) (1960 - 1980) (1980 - 2000) (2000 - Future)
Scientific Management “Human Side” Management Quality Management Era E-Manufacturing
Value Chain Value Shop
Firm Infrastructure Firm Infrastructure
Human Resources Management Human Resources Management Infrastructure
Technology Development Support
Technology Development Procurement
Procurement
Problem Finding Problem
& Acquisition Solving
After-
Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing sales Simon’s Problem Solving Model
Logistics Logistics & Sales Service Choice
Control/
Execution
Evaluation
Value Created in the Assembly Value Created by Transforming Value Created by Providing
Inputs Into Products Solutions, Not Services Value Created By
Line (Operations)
Self Forming Groups
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
Sarnoff’s Law –1960s to mid 1980s
For one-way broadcast communication, the value of the
network itself rises proportionally to N, the potential number of
listeners.
Value Chain
Firm Infrastructure
Human Resources Management
Technology Development
Value
Procurement
Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing After
Logistics Logistics & Sales Sales-
Service
Sarnoff
Value created by transforming inputs into
products
N
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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29. 5/7/2012
Internet Direction
Mainframe
Copyright @2008
HBMG Inc.
Metcalfe’s Law — Mid 1980s to 2000s
The value of a network increases exponentially with the
number of nodes – N2. A network becomes more useful as
more users are connected.
Value Shop
Firm Infrastructure
Human Resources Management Infrastructure
Technology Development Support
Procurement
Metcalfe
Problem
Value
Problem Finding
& Acquisition Solving
Simon’s Problem Solving Model Choice
Sarnoff
V
Control/
Execution
Evaluation
Value created by providing solutions, not
services
N
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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30. 5/7/2012
Internet Direction
Servers
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
Reed’s Law — 2001 and into the future
Any system that lets users create and maintain groups creates a set of
group-forming options that increase exponentially with the number of
potential members. And as a function, 2N dominates N2 - which means
that even if each individual group-forming option is worth much less than
an individual connection, eventually the total set of group-forming options
will have far more option value.
Value Network
 Mediating technology facilitates exchange
relationships
Firm Infrastructure Reed
Human Resources Management
Value
Technology Development
Procurement
Network Promotion and Contract Management
• Invite and select Service Provisioning
customers to join Infrastructure
network • Establish
Establish, Operation
• Initialize,
maintain and
terminate links • Maintain and
Metcalfe
manage, and run physical
terminate
contracts
• Billing for value
received
and information
network
Sarnoff
N
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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31. 5/7/2012
Internet Direction
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
Competing in a Global Business Environment
Taylor’s Law Sarnoff’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law
(1910 – 1950s) (1960 - 1980) (1980 - 2000) (2000 - Future)
Scientific Management “Human Side” Management Quality Management Era E-Manufacturing
Value Chain Value Shop
Firm Infrastructure Firm Infrastructure
Human Resources Management Human Resources Management Infrastructure
Technology Development Support
Technology Development
Procurement
Procurement
Problem Finding Problem
& Acquisition Solving
After-
Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing sales
Logistics Logistics & Sales Service Simon’s Problem Solving Model Choice
Control/
Execution
Evaluation
Value Created in the Assembly Value Created by Transforming Value Created by Providing Value Created By
Line (Operations) Inputs Into Products Solutions, Not Services Self Forming Groups
•Standardization Parts •Stable Relationships •Lean Manufacturing •Consumer Centric
and Processes Design and Delivery
•Price Conscious •Shift to Horizontal Structure
•Economies of Scale •Flat Corporate
•Producer Led Design •Focus on Core
Structures
•Producer-Centric Competency
•Global Companies
Design, Mfg., and •Collaborative Virtual
•Reliability and Durability
y y
Delivery •Regionalism
Regionalism Networks
•Producer Led Design
•Vertical Orientation •Productivity •Mass Customization
•Multinational Trade
•Required inventory •Subsidiaries •Transparency
buffers •Market Centric
•Plant Replication by •Speed and Agility
Design & Delivery
•Locally Oriented Region
•Global Orientation
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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32. 5/7/2012
S-Curve for Innovation,
Development, and Product
Life
100%
90%
se
Percentage of Installed Bas 80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% t∆ t∆ t∆
0%
Time
Science & Product Product Life
Research Development
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
Research/Product Life Cycle
Research Development Product Life
Introduction Preliminary Active Mature Legacy Obsolete
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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33. 5/7/2012
Research/Product Life Cycle
Research Development Product Life
Product Product Concept Business & Product Test
Generation Screening Development Marketing Development Marketing— Deployment
& Testing Strategy —Alpha Beta
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
Research/Product Life Cycle
Research Development Product Life
Basic Science Experimental Directed Applied
Sand Box Discovery Science Research Research
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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A New Regional Model
Emerging
Then…. Now….
Region D
Region A
Region B
Manufacturing
Region C
Research
Trials/Testing
Services
Region G
Development
Region E Region F
Self-Contained Specialized, Networked
Regional Clusters Regions
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
From Austin to…
Network Emergent
Emergent
Emergent
networks
Networks
Networks
of Emergent
Companies
Companies
Companies
Companies
Networks
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
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38. 5/7/2012
Borg — a person who wears
a Bluetooth enabled
telephone headset,
especially when not in use
(a reference to the Star Trek
aliens who generally have
electronic devices on their
heads
Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc.
In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business
world will change.”
 Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”
Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc.
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39. 5/7/2012
In Parting: Be Paranoid
“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business
world will change.”
 Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”
Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc.
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