To develop foresight, one has to acknowledge and understand three different types of systems - simple, complicated and complex. This presentation will discuss an overall structure for the different types of systems and their characteristics together with examples. Paul will discuss the apparent trend towards more complex systems and why this trend may be true. He will provide some insight in how to think about complex systems.
Paul Schumann is a futurist, creative thinker, advisor and writer. He is a proponent and practitioner of collaborative approaches.
He has been a technologist and technology manager in the semiconductor industry (IBM), internal entrepreneur (IBM), cultural change agent (IBM), and consultant (Technology Futures and Glocal Vantage). With 50 years of professional experience, Paul is still excited about learning, and sharing what he is learning.
He is a blogger, writer of numerous articles and book chapters, and coauthor of two books (Innovate! and Superconductivity). Paul has been blogging since 2002 and as of this writing has posted 679 blogs on Insights-Foresight (http://insights-foresight.blogspot.com/ ).
Paul is a fan of web 2.0 technologies and has applied them to his own work, and to create market intelligence systems for clients. He is expecting to see their application in democracy. His interests also include media ecology and complexity.
He is the founder, past president and past member of the board of the Central Texas Chapter of the World Future Society. Paul was a member of the advisory boards of the Marketing Research Association, the Associated Chemistry Teachers of Texas and ACC’s Center for Community-based and Nonprofit Organizations. He is on the editorial board of On the Horizon journal, and was involved with Texas Forums and Extreme Democracy.
2. 1, 2, a Few, Many
1 2 A Few Many
Newton Poincare
Gauss
Complicated Criticality & Chaos
Simplicity Organized Complexity Disorganized Complexity
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3. The Present
“It makes me happy. To be at the beginning again,
knowing almost nothing… The ordinary-sized stuff
which is our lives, the things people write poetry about
– clouds – daffodils – waterfalls,,,these things are full
of mystery, as mysterious to us as the heavens were to
the Greeks…It’s the best possible time to be alive, when
almost everything you thought you knew is wrong.”
Tom Stoppard, Arcadia
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4. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 4
5. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 5
6. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 6
7. Examples
Three Body Problem
The Logistic Map: x t + 1 = R x t ( 1 – x t )
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks R=2 R=4
Evolution x 0 = 0.99 x 0 = 0.2
Economics x0 =
0.200000000
01
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8. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 8
9. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 9
10. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
N = a M -2
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11. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass Criticality
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems Gaussian
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
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12. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 12
13. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Termite Cathedral
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14. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 14
15. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
European Starlings
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16. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
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17. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
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18. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 18
19. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 19
20. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 20
21. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
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22. Modeling
Mathematical Massively Parallel
Derived Simulation
Analytical Describe underlying
Conditional mechanisms
Equation: x = ½ a t2 Rule based agents in an
Predictive environment
Exploration
Easier to add random or
probabilistic events
Flexible & intuitive
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23. P=a C -2.1
Examples 2007: corr=0.98
2008: corr=0.94
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
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24. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 24
25. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
Paul Schumann 25
26. Examples
Three Body Problem
Weather
Logistic Graph
Earthquakes/Hour Glass
Forrest Fires
Termite Castles
Slime Mold
Flocking/Schooling/Herding
Body Rhythms
Nature’s True Shapes
Biological Growth
Ecological Systems
Markets
Social Networks
Evolution
Economics
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27. Examples
Three Body Problem “…the wealth of nations is driven by
Weather productive knowledge. Individuals are
Logistic Graph limited in the things they can effectively
Earthquakes/Hour Glass know and use in production so the only
Forrest Fires way a society can hold more knowledge is
Termite Castles by distributing different chunks of
Slime Mold knowledge to different people. To use the
Flocking/Schooling/Herding knowledge, these chunks need to be re-
Body Rhythms aggregated by connecting people through
Nature’s True Shapes organizations and markets. The complex
Biological Growth web of products and markets is the other
Ecological Systems side of the coin of the accumulating
Markets productive knowledge.”
Social Networks
Evolution Atlas of Economic Complexity
Economics
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28. Examples Dispersed interaction —The economy has interaction between many
dispersed, heterogeneous, agents. The action of any given agent depends upon
the anticipated actions of other agents and on the aggregate state of the
Three Body Problem economy.
No global controller —Controls are provided by mechanisms of
Weather competition and coordination between agents. Economic actions are mediated
Logistic Graph by legal institutions, assigned roles, and shifting associations. No global entity
Earthquakes/Hour Glass controls interactions. Traditionally, a fictitious auctioneer has appeared in some
mathematical analyses of general equilibrium models, although nobody
Forrest Fires claimed any descriptive accuracy for such models. Traditionally, many
Termite Castles mainstream models have imposed constraints, such as requiring that budgets
Slime Mold be balanced, and such constraints are avoided in complexity economics.
Cross-cutting hierarchical organization —The economy has many levels
Flocking/Schooling/Herding of organization and interaction. Units at any given level behaviors, actions,
Body Rhythms strategies, products typically serve as "building blocks" for constructing units at
Nature’s True Shapes the next higher level. The overall organization is more than hierarchical, with
many sorts of tangling interactions (associations, channels of communication)
Biological Growth across levels.
Ecological Systems Ongoing adaptation —Behaviors, actions, strategies, and products are
Markets revised frequently as the individual agents accumulate experience[8].
Novelty niches —Such niches are associated with new markets, new
Social Networks technologies, new behaviors, and new institutions. The very act of filling a
Evolution niche may provide new niches. The result is ongoing novelty.
Economics Out-of-equilibrium dynamics —Because new niches, new potentials, new
possibilities, are continually created, the economy functions without attaining
any optimum or global equilibrium. Improvements occur regularly.
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29. Complexity, Emergence & Fractals
The behavior of a complex
system in dynamic Complexity
equilibrium is chaotic, in
non-equilibrium is critical
Emergence is the way Equilibrium
Non-
complex systems and patterns equilibrium
arise out of a multiplicity of
relatively simple interactions
Chaos Agents Criticality
A fractal is an object or
quantity that displays self-
similarity on all scales.
Some complex systems can Emergence Agents
appear simple or complicated
at some scales Adaptive
Fractals
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30. Why Is Complexity Important?
Ubiquitous
Trans disciplinary
“…the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity.”
– Hawking
“…the overarching challenge of our age will be managing
modern complexity” – Beer
“I am convinced that the nations and people who master
the new sciences of complexity will become the economic,
cultural and political superpowers of the next century
(21st).” – Pagels
“Complexity has created a bridge or a merger of
quantitative and qualitative explanations of life.” -
Zimmerman
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31. The Future Complexity
More systems
More interconnectedness in the systems
The reach of a system is growing
The number of people/things in a system is increasing
The speed of interaction is increasing
Therefore: More complexity
More chaos
More criticality
More emergence
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32. Paul Schumann
Paul Schumann, PO Box 161475, Austin, TX 78716
512.632.6586
paschumann2009@gmail.com
http://insights-foresight.blogspot.com/
https://sites.google.com/a/schumann2020.com/paul-
schumann/home
http://www.twitter.com/innovant2003
Want to go further? Contact me…
Paul Schumann 32
33. Resources
Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell, Oxford, 2009
Simplexity, Jeffrey Kluger, Hyperion, 2008
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Random House, 2007
Adventures in Modeling: Exploring Complex, Dynamic Systems with StarLogo, Vanessa Stevens
Colella, Eric Klopfer & Mitchel Resnick, Teachers College press, 2001
Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, and Software, Steven Johnson, Scribner,2001
Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchanan, Three Rivers Press, 2000
Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds, Mitchel Resnick,
MIT, 1997
Chaos Gaia Eros, Ralph Abraham, Harper, 1994
Tao of Chaos: Merging East and West, Katya Walter, Kairos Center, 1994
Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, M. Mitchell Waldrop, Touchstone,
1992
Exploring Complexity: An Introduction, Gregoire Nicolis & Ilya Prigogine, Freeman, 1989
Chaos: Making a New A Science, James Gleick, Penguin, 1987
Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, Douglas Hofstadter, Vintage, 1980
Go to Insights and Foresight Blog (http://insights-foresight.blogspot.com/) and search for
complexity. All the resources listed above have blog entries and or links.
Paul Schumann 33
34. This work is licensed under the Creative
Commons Attribution license. You may
distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this
work, even commercially, as long as you credit
me for the original creation as Paul
Schumann.
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