HMCS Vancouver Pre-Deployment Brief - May 2024 (Web Version).pptx
Curar el planeta: La conservación de los bosques tropicales del mundo - William Laurance
1. Healing the PlanetConserving the world’s tropical forests William F. Laurance Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) & School of Marine & Tropical Biology James Cook University Cairns, Australia
4. Wright & Muller-Landau (2006): The Future of Tropical Forest Species Seriously challenge idea of large-scale species extinctions in the coming century Difficult to ignore: Prominent scientists Initially presented as Wright’s ATBC presidential address Key conclusions were widely distributed in a press release
5. Public forum Debating the Tropical Extinction Crisis National Museum of Natural History Washington, D.C. 13 February 2009
15. Burgeoning Industrialization & Globalization Globalization and industrial drivers of deforestation have grown sharply in past 1-2 decades Global industrial activity expected to expand 3-5 fold by 2050 Butler & Laurance (2008) Trends in Ecology & Evolution Laurance (2009) ITTO Tropical Forest Update
16. Brazilian Amazonia i 1980 Per-capita deforestation rate has accelerated sharply Massive expansion of industrial-scale cattle ranching, soy farms, and logging 1991 Old-growth forest (%) 1980 1991 2000 2000 Population density (no. km-1)
17. 7,500 km of new highways in Brazilian Amazon Triad of highways from Amazon to Pacific Ocean 52,000 km of new logging roads in Congo Basin New roads opening up last intact forests in Sumatra Panama-Colombia Highway could decimate Darién wilderness 2) Massive Road & Highway Expansion Laurance et al. (2009) Trends in Ecology & Evolution Laurance (2009) New Scientist
24. Gabon 3) China’s Role in Illegal Logging Laurance (2006) Tropinet Laurance (2007) Newsletter of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Laurance (2008) Science Myanmar-China border
26. Projected increase in tropical land devoted to biofuel crops by 2030 Pan-tropical increase could exceed 300 million hectares Rights & Resources Institute (2008)
27. ‘Corn connection’ to Amazon deforestation $11 billion/year for corn-ethanol subsidies Laurance (2007) Science Laurance (2008) New Scientist Corn production rises 25%, soy falls 19%
28. 5) Population Growth For many developing nations, growth is slowingonlyrelative to the breakneck pace in recent decades—and in some cases is still rising dramatically Source: Columbia University & Population Action International
29. Population and Biodiversity Hotspots Surviving habitat just 2.3% of global land area 50% of vascular plant species 42% of terrestrial vertebrate species Myers et al. (2000) Nature
36. Temperature Anomalies (oC) for 2070-2099 Hotter conditions Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario All models predict rising temperatures, but vary in magnitude
37. Precipitation Anomalies (mm/day) for 2070-2099 Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario Precipitation Predictions vary hugely, especially at finer scales
38. Warming & high-elevation biota Many elevational specialists in tropics High endemism Western Ghats, India Central Panama
40. Future scenario Bioclimatic models of future warming Even modest warming (1o C) and drying (10%) could dramatically reduce & fragment cool upland forests D. W. Hilbert et al. (2001) Austral Ecology Present day
41. Projected habitat declines for the Golden Bowerbird, an upland endemic S. E. Williams & D. W. Hilbert (2006), in Emerging Threats to Tropical Forests, Univ. of Chicago Press.
42. IPCC prediction range Projected vertebrate extinctions in tropical Australia Sharp acceleration above 2o C S. E. Williams et al. (2003) Proceedings of the Royal Society B
43. Move over, polar bear? Laurance (2009) New Scientist Laurance (2009) Natural History Laurance (2009) The Ecologist Laurance (2010) Environment Magazine
52. Positive trends The number and total area of reserves has risen, especially if one includes indigenous and semi-protected lands Public attitudes are changing in tropical countries Carbon-trading could help significantly