The document discusses the future of trucks and their implications for energy and the environment. It notes that trucks are currently the second largest source of global oil demand and account for about half of diesel demand. Trucks also contribute significantly to emissions. The document presents the IEA's vision to modernize truck transport through improving efficiency with fuel economy standards, optimizing logistics, and supporting alternative fuels. This could reduce truck fuel demand and emissions substantially by 2050 while still supporting economic growth.

1. The future of trucks
Implications for energy & the environment
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director
Brussels, 3 July 2017

2. © IEA 2017
Context
• Trucks are the fastest growing source of global oil demand
- At around 17 mb/d, trucks are the second largest source of global oil demand today
- Trucks make up for around half of global diesel demand today
• Trucks are also an important source of emissions
- Around 35% of transport-related CO2 emissions are from trucks
- Trucks are an important source of air pollution, and account for 20% of energy-related NOx
emissions
• Policy efforts for trucks are not widespread, only four countries have truck fuel
economy standards in place; international debate focuses largely on passenger cars
• How can trucks continue to support economic growth while meeting key energy and
environmental policy objectives?

3. © IEA 2017
Petrochemical
Other
Transport
70
75
80
85
90
95
Globaloildemand(mb/d)Trucks drive global oil demand
Trucks were responsible for nearly 40% of the growth in global oil demand since 2000; they are the
fastest growing source of oil demand, in particular for diesel.
2000 2015Increase by sector
Trucks
Cars
Other transport

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Truck markets set to move to Asia
The truck market is changing focus towards emerging economies; by 2050, the United States and the
European Union account for only 10% of the global truck sales, down from 20% today
Truck sales in the Reference Scenario
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2050
Rest of world
Southeast Asia
India
China
European Union
United States
Million

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CO2 emissions growth in the Reference Scenario, 2015-2050
A modern truck sector is still a long haul away
Without further policy efforts, trucks will account for 40% of the oil demand growth to 2050
and 15% of the increase in global CO2 emissions
Power sector Industry sector
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Trucks
Aviation
Coal use
Mt

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An IEA vision for a modern truck future
• The IEA proposes a vision for modernising truck transport, in light of the
increasing relevance of the sector for future oil demand & emissions growth
• The IEA Modern Truck Scenario requires near-term efforts across three central
areas:
- Fuel economy policies to increase the efficiency of trucks through standards and
differentiated taxes
- Improvements of logistics, enabled by data gathering and sharing, to realise some of the
potential that underlies system-wide improvements
- Support to the use of alternative fuels, such as through RD&D and support to the build-
up of infrastructure

7. © IEA 2017
Improved
efficiency
34%
An achievable, yet ambitious, vision for the future of trucks
Modernising trucks and systems operations could reduce fuel demand from trucks by 50% in 2050
and emissions by up to 75%, with benefits for energy security and environmental goals
Fuel demand saving in the Modern Truck Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, 2050
13.5 mb/d
Fuel
switching
24% Improved
logistics
42%

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Conclusions
• Trucks are a key enabler of economic growth, delivering commodities & goods
from production sites to factories that use them, or to retails stores
• Trucks are a critical driver of global oil demand already today; without additional
policy efforts, trucks will be a main driver of future growth
• Trucks are also an important driver of transport-related CO2 emissions as
emissions growth from passenger cars is set to slow
• The IEA vision for modernising trucks requires a near-term focus on introducing
vehicle efficiency standards, improving logistics and RD&D for alternative fuels
• IEA is ready to support efforts to modernise truck transport as it strengthens its
role as a global hub for clean energy & energy efficiency

9. © IEA 2017