Antonina Ivanova

1. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014
Mitigation of Climate Change
©Ocean/Corbis
Antonina Ivanova
Vice Chair WG III
International Cooperation: Agreements & Instruments
IPCC AR5 Outreach, Mexico City, August 26-27, 2015

2. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
2
Climate change is a global commons problem
that requires international cooperation and
coordination across scales.
©ESA/NASA

3. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
International cooperation is necessary to significantly mitigate
climate change impacts
3
• This is principally due to the fact that greenhouse gases
(GHGs) mix globally in the atmosphere, making anthropogenic
climate change a global commons problem
• International cooperation has the potential to address several
challenges:
• Multiple actors that are diverse in their perceptions of the
costs and benefits of collective action
• Emissions sources that are unevenly distributed
• Heterogeneous climate impacts that are uncertain and
distant in space and time
• Mitigation costs that vary

4. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Climate change mitigation requires international cooperation
across scales.
4
Based on Figure 13.1

5. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Strong Multilateral agreements
Harmonized national policies;
Decentralized but coordinated national policies
5
Based on Figure 13.2

6. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Limiting warming involves substantial technological,
economic and institutional challenges.

7. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
International trade offers positive and negative incentives to
promote international cooperation on climate change
7
• Three issues are key to developing constructive relationships between
international trade and climate agreements:
• How existing trade policies and rules can be modified to be more
climate friendly
• Whether border adjustment measures (BAMs) or other trade
measures can be effective in meeting the goals of international
climate agreements
• Whether the UNFCCC, World Trade Organization (WTO), hybrid of
the two, or a new institution is the best forum for a trade-and-
climate architecture

8. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Cooperation can be evaluated using a range of criteria
8
• Four criteria stand out:
• Environmental effectiveness
• Aggregate economic performance
• Distributional impacts
• Institutional feasibility.
• These criteria are grounded in several principles:
• Maximizing global net benefits
• Equity and the related principles of distributive justice and
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities (CBDRRC)
• Precaution and the related principles of anticipation, and
prevention of future risks
• Sustainable development.

9. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
The Kyoto Protocol was the first binding step toward
implementing the principles and goals of the UNFCCC
9
• It has had limited effects on global emissions because:
• Some countries did not ratify the Protocol
• Some Parties did not meet their commitments
• Its commitments applied to only a portion of the
global economy
• The Parties to the Protocol collectively surpassed their
collective emission reduction target in the first
commitment period
• But the Protocol credited emissions reductions
that would have occurred even in its absence.
• The Kyoto Protocol does not directly influence the
emissions of non-Annex I countries, which have grown
rapidly over the past decade.

10. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
The Montreal Protocol has also achieved significant reductions in
global GHG emissions
10
• The Montreal Protocol set limits on emissions of ozone-depleting
gases that are also potent GHGs, such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs).
• Substitutes for those ozone-depleting gases (such as
hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs, which are not ozone-depleting) may
also be potent GHGs.
• Potential lessons learned from the Montreal Protocol:
• Use of financial and technological transfers to broaden
participation in an international environmental agreement
• May be of value to the design of international climate change
agreements

11. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Recent UNFCCC Negotiations
11
• Recent negotiations have sought to foster:
• More ambitious mitigation commitments from countries with commitments
under the Kyoto Protocol
• Mitigation contributions from a broader set of countries
• New finance and technology mechanisms
• Under the 2010 Cancún Agreement, developed countries formalized voluntary
pledges of quantified, economy-wide emission reduction targets and some
developing countries formalized voluntary pledges to mitigation actions.
• Under the 2011 Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, delegates agreed to craft
a future legal regime that would be 'applicable to all Parties … under the
Convention'
• To include substantial new financial support and technology arrangements

12. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
12

13. Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
• Reducir 25% la emisión de gases y
compuestos de efecto invernadero
• 22% en emisiones directas de CO2, metano,
óxido nitroso y gases fluorocarbonados.
• 51% de emisiones de partículas negras de hollín (carbono negro)
• El crecimiento económico del país se desacoplará de la emisión de GEI, pasando de
40 a 24 kgCO2e/1,000 pesos.
• Se estima que México alcanzará el pico máximo de emisiones de GEI en el año 2026.
• De asegurarse el apoyo financiero y transferencia de tecnología este compromiso se
puede incrementar a 40%.
• Componente de adaptación: proteger la población de los fenómenos
hidrometereológicos extremos. Aumentar la resiliencia de la infraestructura
estratégica y de los ecosistemas (biodiversidad).
13
INDC MEXICO 2020-2030