1. Sea level rise: an update
Prof Mark Howden
Vice Chair Working Group II
Australian National University
2. Sweet et al. 2017
Regionally-variable trends in sea level rise
3. IPCC AR5 scenarios
‘Only the collapse of
marine-based sectors
of the Antarctic ice
sheet, if initiated,
could cause global
mean sea level to rise
substantially above
the likely range during
the 21st century’
IPCC 2013
7. Impact of SLR affected by emissions: Suva
Climatecentral.org
8. Increased risk of extreme sea level events
Goodwin et al. 2017
• 10,000x means that a current once-a-century flooding level is
reached every time at normal high tide
9. Longer term sea level rise: from Antarctica only
IPCC 2013: NASA 2017
‘It is virtually certain
that global mean sea
level rise will continue
… for many centuries.
The amount of longer
term sea level rise
depends on future
emissions.’
10. Thankyou
Prof Mark Howden
ANU Climate Change Institute
mark.howden@anu.edu.au
+61 2 6125 7266
Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II