This document provides an overview of key topics related to climate change, including: - The introduction outlines the main sections to be covered: causes of climate change, impacts, mitigation and adaptation strategies, and public policy approaches. - Subsequent sections discuss mechanisms of climate change like the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle, predicted impacts such as rising temperatures, sea level rise, and effects on biodiversity. - Mitigation strategies addressed include reducing emissions in sectors like transportation, industry, and energy through renewable alternatives and reforestation. Adaptation approaches aim to adjust natural and human systems to climate impacts. - Global public policy challenges are also reviewed, including the UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, and issues

1. Chapter 1
Climate Change
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2. Contents in Climate Change
• Introduction: The problem
• Climate change and key mechanisms
• Impacts of climate change
• Mitigation and adaptation
• Global climate change and public policy
• Conclusion
2

3. 1. Introduction
What do you see? Let’s
describe what you see.
What do you feel? Let’s share
your feeling with your peers.
Please tell me what you feel
From this photo.
Yes, our earth is warming or burning.
Why? Can you tell me what cause this warming on the earth?
What kinds of impact of global warming do we face now?
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4. Global warming & Climate change
• Global warming and climate change refer to
an increase in average global temperatures.
• Natural events and human activities as
contributing to average global temperatures
by increases in “greenhouse” gases such as
Carbon Dioxide (CO2).
• There are various reasons for increasing CO2
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5. 2. Climate Change and
Key Mechanisms
5

6. Problem
• Global environment is deteriorating from CO2 increase→global
warming→sea level rise, rain change, health problem
• CO2 will be doubled in 70 years. How can we reduce CO2
emission? To do this, we need to understand its mechanism.
• There are evidences supporting claim of climate change.
Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere (ppmv)
Global mean temperature
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7. Radiation balance in the atmosphere
Longwave radiation
Shortwave radiation
Absorption
& heating
Carbon dioxide
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8. Global warming in the 21st Century could be 2℃ to 3.6℃
8
IPCC Report

9. Warming predicted by models (IPCC)
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10. 10

11. More rain or less rain? (IPCC Report)
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12. Questions on Global warming
• Is global warming real?
• Is it because of CO2?
• How much will warming proceed?
• How much should we reduce CO2 emission?
• Is it economically feasible?
• We need more scientific proof rather than “CO2
will be as much as the dinosaur era”.
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13. Is global warming caused by CO2 ?
• We have heard the claim such as ‘Temperature
variability induces CO2 variability’
• We need to examine the cause-effect relationship.
○several years
– ElNino：1ppm ← 1℃
○100 years
– Global warming due to anthropogenic CO2 :
100～300ppm → 1～4℃
– Little ice age：5ppm ← 1℃
○1000 years～hundred of 1000 years
– Glacier-interglacier：100ppm ↔ 10℃
– Feedback between temperature and CO2 13

14. Facts of global warming
• Mechanisms
1. CO2 by human activities.
2. Outgoing longwave radiation is absorbed by
CO2, and emits it back to the earth surface.
3. Carbon cycle among atmosphere, land and
ocean
• Learn from old time
Higher CO2 in the dinosaur era
Lower CO2 during the glacier period
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15. Global Carbon (Dioxide) Cycle
existing amount and annual flux
Atmosphere (750 x 10**9 ton)
61 x 10**9
92 x 10**9
90 x 10**9
60 x 10**9
Ocean Anthropogenic Terrestrial ecosystem
(600 x 10**9 ton)
(40000 x 10**9 ton) 6 x 10**9
Soil
(1000 x 10**9 ton)
Nature is important!
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16. Future sea level rise
Thermal expansion
is a major cause.
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17. Components of sea level rise
Deep ocean (Antonov et al., GRL, 2005; Kohl et al., JPO, 2007).
Ice sheets (linearly increases towards the 1990s estimates, as compiled in Lemke
et al., IPCC, 2007)
Glacier and small-ice caps (Dyurgerov and Meier, 2004).
Terrestrial storage (Ngo-Duc et al., GRL, 2005).
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18. 3. Impacts of Climate Change
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19. Physical Changes on Earth
The melting ice Tropical storm
(www.shipleygreenparty.org.uk) (www. networlddirectory.com)
The drought 19
www.trekearth.com Flood

20. a. Rise in Atmospheric and Water Temp.
b. Rise in Oceanic Temperature
c. Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion
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21. CC Impacts on Water Resources
THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER
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22. d. Disappearance of Existing Climatic Zones
Latest climate modeling studies forecasts the complete
disappearance of several existing climates in the
tropical highlands and polar regions.
shifting toward higher latitudes and higher elevations
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23. e. Degradation of Biodiversity
• The harmful anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity is being
further exacerbated by global warming related changes.
• It has been predicted that future changes in climate will
directly affect the distribution, abundance and life cycles of
most species.
• The physiological mechanisms of cold-blooded vertebrate species
such as fish, amphibians and reptiles are directly or indirectly
temperature-dependent.
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24. 4. Mitigation and Adaptation
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25. Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change
in Energy Sector
• Mitigation: structural and non-structural measures
undertaken to limit the adverse impact of natural
hazards, environmental degradation, and
technological hazards. It covers the actions that
reduce forth coming disasters.
• Adaptation: is an adjustment in human system and
nature to face new environment or climate change.
Adaptation can reduce the cost of climate change by
reducing the damage caused by climate change.
However, it doesn’t effect the raising of global
temperature.
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26. Current Energy Situation and Need for More
Sustainable Energy System
7 000
6 000 Oil
5 000
Natural gas
4 000
Mtoe
3 000 Coal
2 000 Other renewables
1 000 Nuclear power
Hydro power
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy
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demand between now and 2030

27. • The three largest sectors that emit CO2 and other
GHSs are transportation, industrial energy and
domestic energy. Thus, mitigation and adaptation in
energy sector should be focused in these three areas.
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28. 28

29. FACTS ON USING BIOFUELS
• New land required for biofuels, food+fiber demand
increasing, farm land area slowly shrinking (urban and
other pressures): limited scope for turning to energy
crops
• Deforestation is caused by many factors including
growth in biofuels, increasing world food demand and
many other social and institutional factors
• Land that is mostly used to produce animal food rather
than human food is not optimal. It would be possible to
meet most or all U.S. gasoline demands with ethanol
while still producing enough food on the same land.
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30. Revegetation of critical lands
(case in Wanagama Education Forest establishment,
Yogyakarta, Indonesia)
BEFORE AFTER
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31. Tropical Forest Rehabilitation
(case in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia)
Logged‐over area 10 year planting
1 year planting 31

32. 5. Global Climate Change
& Public Policy
32

33. Global Climate Change & Public Policy
• Climate change is a global challenge and requires a global
solution.
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, CO2, have risen dramatically
since the industrial revolution.
• CO2 emission 145 fold since 1850 from 200 million tons to 29
billion tons a year now. Another 36 % increase by 2010
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34. -China surpassed the US in 2006 as the largest emitter
-China is responsible for 21 % of GHG emission in total.
-US is responsible for 17 % of GHG emission., 34

35. -On the basis of Capita GHG emission, US emissions are more than
twice as high as those of the EU and Japan and 3 and 1/2 times the
world average (Figure 3)
-On an intensity basis, US emissions are higher than EU’s and Japan’s
(Figure 4)
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36. The International Climate Effort
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37. 1. UNFCCC
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Signed by President George H.W. Bush and ratified by the US Senate
• 194 parties now
• Objective
-Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at a level
preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
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38. 2. Berlin Mandate
-In 1995, calling for the negotiation of binding targets for developed
countries.
-Led in 1997 to the Kyoto Protocol
-Developed countries agreed to an average emission reduction of 5.2 %
below 1990 levels by 2008-2012.
-EU countries (-8%), Iceland (+10%), US (-7%)
-3 market-based mechanism
1. International emissions trading (trading of emission allowances among
countries with target
2. Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM):
credit emission reductions in developed and developing countries)
3. Setting emission targets as 5 years not single year and counting 6 GHG,
providing credit for carbon storage in forest and farmland
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39. 3. Kyoto Protocol
• CO2 emission = 1 tonC／(person･year) as global average
• 3 tC/(p･y) in Japan, 6 tC/(p･y) in the US
• Reduction of emission by 6% of 1990 amount before 2010
• We should not rely on forest too much.
• Maximum absorption is about 20% of the existing ecosystem.
• Terrestrial capacity is equivalent to human emission in 20 years.
• How can we slow down CO2 increase?
• Technological development
• Natural energy (wind power, solar power, bio-energy etc.)
• Enhancement of marine ecosystem (iron distribution)
• Injection to deep rock and ocean lower layer
• Nothing other than changes in our concept and life style? 39

40. Policy Challenges
• Climate change is not just environmental issue;
it is a challenge in modern civilization and
relationship with life-support system.
• Biophysical characteristics of the climate
system correlate with the time scales,
assumption and values/ethics of policy
processes
• Three aspects/issues of the climate-policy
system
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41. 1. Equity Issues
1. International debate between developed and developing
countries
2. Future climate change obscured by the focus on China and
India as future large emitters.
3. The most severe consequences from the developing world.
4. Complicated by that various countries quantify their
contribution to a global problem.
Ex: People in AU (20 million inhabitants) argue that their
emissions are a very small fraction of the global total, and are
already dwarfed by China’s emission. But measure on a per
capita basis, the emissions are about equal to those of US and
much higher than China’s.
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42. 2. Mismatch Timescale
1. The very long time scales related to climate system present
unusual challenges to the policy process
2. Multi-model mean of annual mean surface air temperature
change, 2020-2029 and 2090-2099
3. No matter what we try to reduce CO2 emission in the next
two decades No effect on the extent of climate change
4. The momentum built into the climate system is due largely
to the thermal inertia in the oceans and the cryosphere-
which means that we are committed to another 0.5 or 0.6 C
of global mean temperature rise no perceptible effect for
25 years
42

43. 3. Thresholds, abrupt changes, non-linear effects
and irreversible changes
1. One of the most misunderstood characteristics of the climate
system is that it is non-linear and tend to abrupt changes,
threshold effects and irreversible changes
2. As in any complex system, very small change can trigger
surprisingly large and catastrophic changes in a system
3. A few parts per million in CO2 concentration tip the climate
system into a cascade of feedbacks(threshold) propelling the
Earth into a different climatic and environmental state.
4. Threshold/feedback processes raise the issue of ‘overshoot’.
5. Not only is an ultimate target CO2 based on the biophysics of
the climate system critical, the pathway to that target is just as
important as the ultimate target itself.
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44. Beyond Kyoto Protocol
• What will come in 2050-2100?
• The global population has increased by a factor
of 2.4 in last 50 years, and will increase.
• Some of the under-developing countries will
become developed countries in 50 years, and
emit a large amount of carbon dioxide.
• Global warming will change the pattern of rain.
• Biodiversity is reduced and food supply is
limited.
• Human health is damaged.
• How can we solve this problem? 44

45. Global warming longer than 1000 yrs
• Keep CO2 at 550 ppm in the atmosphere
• 2 Gt-C of CO2 per year, absorbed in the
ocean
• Forests and soil will be filled with carbon in
100 years.
• CO2 from the current developing countries
will exceed that from the developed
countries in 30years.
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46. • Let’s think about your own contribution.
• What would you try to reduce damage of
global warming? Write how it works, and
under what condition it does not work.
Choose one from the following:
• Improve a prediction model
• Maintain forests well
• Develop new technology to reduce CO2
emission
• Introduce environmental-friendly methods to
developing countries 46

47. ASSIGNMENT #6
If you wish the certificate from this course
Q1: How much is carbon dioxide emitted every year?
Q2: Which was proposed earlier, Kyoto Protocol or
UN FCCC?
Please send the answers by February 8 to UNESCO
ml.tambowon@unesco.org (the second letter is l not one)
If you have any question, you can contact Y. Park
parkys@chosun.ac.kr
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