44. J.R. Petit, J. Jouzel, et al. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core in Antarctica, Nature 399(3June), pp 429-436, 1999. As constructed by the United Nations Environmental Program.
50. Changes in Net GHG Emissions 1 2000-2006 from 17 Major Economies 1 Includes emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons, as well as emissions and removals of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from land-use, land-use change and forestry activities. ** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used. Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats and IEA Online Energy Services.
54. Massive Effort Needed to Meet Emissions Goals Source: Clarke, L. et al. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios . Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Cumulative global emissions reductions ranging from about 1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of CO 2 equivalent would be need over the course of the century to meet a range of atmospheric concentration goals (450 to 750 ppm). 1st GtC Avoided CO 2 Emissions (GtCO 2 /yr) Cumulative Emissions Cumulative Avoided Emissions Unconstrained Emissions Scenario CO 2 Stabilization Scenario ≈ 1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of cumulative CO 2 emission reductions will be needed to meet a range of stabilization scenarios (≈750 ppm to 450 ppm). Time 0
55. How Big is One Gigaton* of CO 2 ? *Gigaton = 10 9 Metric Tons Install 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sleipner project (1 MtCO2/year)—Only 3 sequestration projects of this scale exist today. Geologic Sequestration Build 273 “zero-emission” 500 MW coal-fired power plants—Equivalent to about 7% of current global installed coal-fired generating capacity of 2 million MW. Coal-Fired Power Plants Convert a barren area of about 4,800,000 km 2 —Equivalent to about 2 times the size of the United Kingdom. Biomass Fuels from Plantations Install capacity to produce 273 times the current global solar PV generation instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS. Solar Photovoltaics Actions that Provide One Gigaton CO 2 / Year of Mitigation or Offsets Technology Convert a barren area of about 900,000 km 2 —Equivalent to more that the size of Germany and France combined. CO 2 Storage in New Forest Install capacity to produce 14 times the current global wind generation capacity (about 74 GW) instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS—Equivalent to more than 1 million 1 MW wind turbines. Wind Energy Deploy 273 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg (or at 14 km/L instead of 7 km/L). Efficiency Build 136 new nuclear power plants of 1 GW each instead of new coal-fired power plants without CCS—Equivalent to about one third of existing worldwide nuclear capacity of 375 GW. Nuclear
56. 2050 Reference Emissions 2050 Annex I Reference Emissions (18.2 Gt) Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries 2050 Non-Annex I Reference Emissions (32.4 Gt) Annex I Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions Annex I Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions -100% ( -18.2 Gt ) -84% ( -15.2 Gt ) -59% ( -10.7 Gt ) -62% ( -20.1 Gt ) -71% ( -23.1 Gt ) -85% ( -27.6 Gt ) 1 Includes fossil and other industrial CO 2 . 2 50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt. 3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group ( i.e ., Annex I or Non-Annex I). Source: Climate Change Science Program . 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). 2050 Annex I Emissions (0 Gt) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (12.3Gt) 2050 Annex I Emissions (3.0 Gt) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (9.3 Gt) 2050 Annex I Emissions (7.4 Gt) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (4.9 Gt) Annex I Emissions at “0” 2000 2000 To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO 2 Emissions by 2050, Need Significant Reductions from Developing Countries Annual Gigaton CO 2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference 3 CO 2 , Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr)
62. The Ethical Issues Who stands to suffer – and who stands to gain – from climate policies?
63. CO 2 Emissions (Gt CO 2 /yr) Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming Decades: CO 2 Emissions 1 by Region - 2000 & 2050 About 80 to 90% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between now and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE Asia. 1 Includes Fossil and other industrial CO 2 . Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results). Non-Annex I Regions Annex I Regions
64. 2050 Reference Emissions Annex I Countries Non-Annex I Countries Annex I Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions Annex I Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions -100% -84% -59% -62% -71% -85% 1 Measured as MMTCO 2 per million people, excluding LULUCF. 2 50% of 2000 global CO 2 emissions equals 12.3 Gt. 3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group ( i.e ., Annex I or Non-Annex I). Source: Climate Change Science Program . 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). Annex I Emissions at “0” To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO 2 Emissions by 2050, Per Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go Down Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference 3 2000 Annex I Reference Emissions/ Capita (12.7) 2000 Non-Annex I Reference Emissions/ Capita (4.4) 2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (0) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (1.7) 2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (2.1) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (1.3) 2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (5.2) 2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (0.7) CO 2 , Emissions per Capita (MMTCO2 per million pop.) 2000 2000
65. Scale of Biomass Land Area Land Use Scenario ≈ 550 ppmv Source: Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program , Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth. By 2050, land use required for bioenergy crops may account for approximately 4 to 5% of total land use; by 2095 approximately 20%.
Arctic cooling Feb and March, claims of warming don’t work; no trend, and not now. Since 2005 cooling at rate of 1.8 deg/century…too short? Huh. We’d heard that the 4 years leading up to then showed meaningful warming…double standard?
A painting of the Thames River by James Grifier in 1683. It depicts a medieval ice ‘fayre’ events that were held from the reign of Elizabeth I up to about 1830 when the the overall warming meant the ice did not form sufficient to support a coach and horses as depicted in this painting or the ice fayre.
Another painting of the ice conditions in London in 1683. The old London Bridge is in the background. Some have tried to argue the ice formed because of the bridge. This is rubbish. The ice was forming before the bridge was built. In addition, the bridge would constrict the water flow that would increase the rate of flow.
That the early European settlers arrived in North America in the middle of the Little Ice Age did little to make things more comfortable for them. Early records of European settlers in North America are full of accounts of bitter winters. In the accompanying illustration an Arctic chill in January 1844 froze Boston Harbor and trapped Britannia, one of the Cunard liners, threatening the Cunard's reputation for reliability. Luckily some of Boston's leading citizens put up the money to cut an ice channel through which the ship made a daring escape. Boston harbor froze many times during the 19th century.
Another symbolic painting by the master of symbolism Pieter Breughel. The scene shows cold conditions of the Little Ice Age. The painting is titled “Winter Scene with Birdtrap” The trap has a string running from the string attached to the stick holding the boards up. The housewife “lards” the trap and when birds are underneath pulls the string. If you sum up human history in one word it is “hunger”. Birds were a major source of food supply especially in long hard winters.
The colder weather ultimately put an end to the daring fashions of the years after the French Revolution which 'exposed the person': it was said at the time that 'it took the aid of the north wind to enforce the return to modesty in women's dress' (The Diary of a Country Parson 1758-1802 by James Woodforde).
composite index of global mean surface temperature anomalies, taking the mean of two surface and two satellite datasets and updated through November 2008
No peer-reviewed articles that cast doubt on theory of catastrophic climate change? These are just a sample from the past few months.
Considering that each tick mark is 10,000 years, you can see why there was initially some confusion about cause and effect. But everyone now agrees that temperature generally goes up about 800 years before CO2. There's no doubt whatsoever, though, about falling temperatures: they plummet while CO2 levels are still high. Mr. Gore claims the relationship between CO2 and temperature is very complicated. As such he does not attempt to actually superimpose the two graphs. The ice core data comes from ice cores drilled to a depth of nearly 12,000 feet or 2.2 miles at the Vostoc Station in Antarctica. Like Mr. Gore, the United Nations uses this information to “prove” that earth’s CO2 and temperature are highly correlated. And they are right. However, a high correlation proves nothing. To give an extreme example, there is a 100 percent correlation that any human that breaths air will die. But that does not prove that breathing air kills people. Far from it. We would all die if we didn’t breath air. But even the correlation used by Mr. Gore and the United Nations is misleading. Notice, they kept the two graphs separate. By doing so, the human eye perceives that CO2 causes temperature to rise. However, when the temperature graph is superimposed over the CO2 graph is become apparent than CO2 tends to follow temperature, not proceed it, strongly suggesting that CO2 does not cause the temperature to change, but that temperature causes CO2 to change.
Club for Growth…may have heard Stephen and Glenn Beck yesterday discussing GlobGov and cap-n-trade as pretext