In this presentation Dr. Stefan Bornemann is talking how weather effects business and customers and how wetter.com is analyzing this weather impact. Topic was presented at Women in Big Data Munich event at Usercentrics: https://www.womeninbigdata.org/ Video You can watch the recording of the presentation in our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/u-gZoj326ec For more content like this, visit IT Knowledge Bank website: https://www.itknowledgebank.com/

1. FROM WEATHER
TO BIG DATA
wetter.com breaks new ground
Munich, 28. November 2019
Dr. Stefan Bornemann, wetter.com GmbH
wetter.com

2. advertising solutions
weather content productions
weather & geo data products
Berlin
Constance
Munich
3
wetter.com
Desktop, iOS, Android
snowthority.com
Desktop, iOS, Android
Unique users per month

3. THREE PILLAR STRATEGY – FROM PUBLISHING TO DATA COMPANY
CONSUMER DATA
Data OptimizationAnalytics
wetter.com
5
MEDIA

4. WEATHER MATTERS

5. WEATHER IS A RELEVANT
BUSINESS FACTOR
WITH PRECIOUS
INSIGHTS

6. wetter.com
8
WEATHER EFFECTS FROM CUSTOMER`S PERSPECTIVE
WEATHER
AWARENESS ACTIONINTEREST DESIRE
MOOD
DESIRE
IMPACT OF ADVERTISING
CHOICE OF PRODUCT & BRAND
SHOPPING BASKET
CHECK-OUT

7. wetter.com
9
WEATHER EFFECTS FROM ENTREPRENEUR´S PERSPECTIVE
August 2018 warmer than 2017
2017 2018
„Ungewöhnlich heißes Wetter“
Ungewöhnliche Gewinnwarnung
aus Düsseldorf: Der Metro-
Ableger Ceconomy leidet mit
seinen Elektronikmärkten Media
Markt und Saturn unter den
Folgen der sommerlichen Hitze.
„Hornbach hat auch Wetter“
In den prominenten Kreis der
Händler, die sich aufgrund der
extremen Temperaturen von
ihrem Umsatzprognosen
verabschieden müssen, gesellt
sich jetzt auch Hornbach hinzu.
„Das liebe Wetter“
Gewinnwarnung und Kurssturz an
der Börse: Auch der Mode-
Onlinekonzern Zalando bemüht
das Wetterargument für die
rückläufige Nachfrage.
„Außergewöhnlich warmes
Wetter im zweiten Quartal“
Außergewöhnlich warmes Wetter
im zweiten Quartal 2018 hat
Nachfrage im Markt für große
Möbel spürbar zurückgehen
lassen.

8. wetter.com
10
WEATHER IS A KEY FEATURE AT ANY STAGE OF THE VALUE CHAIN
Planning Marketing CRMOperationsSourcing
BaseliningWetter-ContentForecasting Produkt-Faktor Prognose-Korrektur Wetter- Targeting Sales-Steuerung
Transaction /
POS Sales
Performance
€

9. wetter.com
DATA BUSINESS MODELS
Weather Location Audiences
Meta
vacation, holidays,
POIs, events, socio
Client
e.g. clicks, orders,
visits, bookings, …
Media Optimizer Geo InsightsBaselining Forecast Optimizer
Application & Optimization
Automated prediction & standardized targeting products
“Weather-based
Advertising”
“Specify weather
business impact“
“Analyze geo
audiences”
“Plan business
using weather”
11
Data Enrichment,
Big Data Analytics
Predictive Modelling

10. Forecast Optimizer

11. Customer:
Bakery chain
Problem:
High out-of-stock and overstocking ratio
Idea:
Optimization of existing autoregressive
forecasts by weather data
Goal:
Automatic integration of weather data via machine
learning
SETTING
wetter.com
13

12. wetter.com
14
LESS APPLE CAKE ON RAINY DAYS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
salesperday
rainfall (mm)

13. 15
WEATHER OPTIMIZED SALES FORECAST WITHIN THE SUPPLY CHAIN
Sales data
Sales
planning Order
ERP-System Forecast-Software Order proposal Production
Weather optimized forecast
Algorithm
Model-Training
wetter.com

14. 16
RESULTS: 12 % FORECAST IMPROVEMENT
wetter.com
Mon WedTue Thur Fri SunSat
error overestimation underestimation
-12%
-8%
-20%
with weather
without weather
Sales numbers
Forecast with weather
Forecast without weather

15. Media Optimizer

16. Customer:
beverage company
Problem:
o highly weather dependent products
o advertising spendings with tremendous
waste coverage
Idea:
Targeting segments based on product and weather
Goal:
Standardized weather targeting for programmatic
advertsing + dynamic messaging + budget optimizing
SETTING
wetter.com
18

17. BOTTLED WATER SALES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR
19wetter.com
Weekly GfK Panel sales water segment (LEH, indexed)
1. HY
2018
1. HY
2019
-4%
99103

18. Data OptimizationAnalytics
REGIONAL WEATHER INDEX BASED ON GFK CONSUMER PANEL
Absatz
Temperatur
DMP|DSP|CDP
wetter.com
Raw data Mapping Model Index AdTech AdCampaign
20wetter.com

19. TARGETING ON PRODUCT AND DAILY BASIS FOR EVERY LOCATION
wetter.com
2019-06-10 2019-06-11 2019-06-12 2019-06-13 2019-06-14 2019-06-15 2019-06-16
temperature in °C
water index
sports drinks index

20. SUCCESS STORY: 26% CTR UPLIFT WITH WATER INDEX
22wetter.com
Click CTRImpressions
without targeting
with targeting index – very high
WATER
BRAND
2.5% 3.1%
+26%

21. WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT?

22. WEATHER /
METEOROLOGY
DATA SCIENCE
help to avoid risks
analyses & forecasts
weather is a big business factor
data evaluation
weather is not just weather
help to make the right decisions
ask the right questions
weather is not a force majeure
weather is the missing key to understand the business
24

23. OUR GOALS
 cross the bridge from publisher to data
company
 we want to be data driven in all
aspects
 we want to grow and enter new
markets
 we want to extend our culture of
responsibility
25

24. Thank you!
stefan.bornemann@wetter.com
+49 89 412 007 272