IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 3 – Item 2 C_Prudhomme
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IUKWC Workshop November 2016: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security Session 3.2 Christel Prudhomme
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IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 3 – Item 2 C_Prudhomme
- 1. Need for a set of consistent hydrological projections for water-related climate change assessment in GB Climate services for the water sector: EDgE a prototype for Europe Christel Prudhomme
- 2. Problem statement: what is out there? • Uncertainty in climate change modelling • Large volume of data • Choice of model (CMIP5 ~ 20 Global Climate Models) • Complex climate information • Water-related projections (drought; flood; water availability indices) absent ... HadRM3-PPE 25-km grid future climate forcing 10,000 monthly change factors (P, T, ..) 25-km grid; 3 ES; 9 TH 5km reference historic climate Daily 1961-2014; monthly from 1910
- 3. UK experiment: Future Flows products • Ensemble of nationally consistent hydrological & groundwater level daily projections (1951-2099) • Regulators and policy • EA: ‘Case for change’ evidence to Government • Defra: White water paper • Water companies: must use Future Flows for Water Resource Planning • Research and development • Water abstraction licensing reform (Risk solution) • Water Framework Directive River status assessment (SEPA) • Noro virus through shellfish (CEFAS) • Electrical earthing installations and heat pump potential (BGS) • Aquatic bird population (U B’ham) • Soil saturation and runoff processes (Cranfield U)
- 4. EDgE End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe Christel PRUDHOMME Copernicus Climate Change Service Programme Prototype Climate Service Information System for the water sector
- 5. pace On behalf of for the European Commission EDgE vision Hydrological Modelling For Climate Impact Indicators Stakeholder View Web Delivery System Define Case Studies Design Implement An hydro-climate service co-designed with stakeholders to break down barriers for users of different backgrounds to access and understand state-of-the art hydrological predictions
- 6. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Stakeholder view: Focus groups Norway UK Spain What information do you use now? What would you prefer to have?
- 7. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Common needs High resolution information about future climate drought indices Norway SpainUK Metrics Skilful seasonal hydrological forecasts Hydrological indices Potential evapotranspiration Water temperature Norway SpainUK Interface Simplicity No post-processing Interactive maps Maps and graphs for download Maps of thresholds or triggers Choice of scenario Different spatial resolutions EDgE results in wider context Skill & uncertainty information Norwegian Spanish
- 8. pace On behalf of for the European Commission State-of-the-art modelling framework CMIP5 (ISI-MIP): 5-GCMs ensemble GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M Seasonal Forecast: 4-NWP ensemble NMME: CanCM4, GFDL(FLOR) (12 real.); ECMWF: ECMF, LFPW (15 real.) Hydrology: 3/4-model ensemble Noah-MP, mHM, PRC-Glob, VIC routed by mRM High Resolution Products at 5km resolution/ spatial areas Time series: P, T, PET, Q, SWE (daily CP; monthly SF) Up to 33 indicators of river flow, GWR, SWE, SM and climate
- 9. pace On behalf of for the European Commission SF SCIIs: Drought Event Aug. 2003 ecmf_sm_quantile_dist_08_2003_lead_from_1month_1quantile % e.g. Soil Moisture Drought Likelihood for SM to be in lowest quintile Uncertainty representation? Skill representation? Access to data for low skill predictions?
- 10. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Data store and web interface The EDgE demonstrator is a web-based application to: • Deliver information on climate services • Allow different types of users to interact with the data • Help users to make basic decisions • Allow users to download information
- 11. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Co-generation: e.g. uncertainty representation Indicators Interface Case Studies Capturing the Stakeholder View Evidence Gathering & testingFocus Groups Live demo and Exercises Display examples Voting sheets for preferred options
- 12. pace On behalf of for the European Commission The EDgE demonstrator Live demo On chrome http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/Apps/#map http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/Apps/#climate-change
- 13. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Next steps Hydrological Modelling For Climate Impact Indicators Stakeholder View Web Delivery System Define Case Studies Design Implement Case studies: assessment of value/utility Low skill vs access to data Operationalisation roadmap Feedback on interface Lessons learnt from other services http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/ edge@ceh.ac.uk chrp@ceh.ac.uk
- 15. pace On behalf of for the European Commission Metrics Changes in soil moisture Changes in groundwater recharge Changes in potential and actual evapotranspiration Changes in precipitation Changes in snow water equivalent Changes in appropriate drought indicators, including drought duration Area under drought Changes annual high flow (e.g. Q10 – the flow exceeded 10% of the time on average) Changes in annual maximum flood Changes in annual low flow (Q90 or Q95) Changes in seasonal flow Changes in mean annual flow Probability distributions of future flows, for both seasonal forecasts and for climate change
Notes de l'éditeur
- I am Christel Prudhomme, and together with Glenn Watts, Luis Samaniego, Justin Sheffield and Matt Fry, we will be presenting the vision and solutions developed by the second proof of concept project for the water sector. We thought it would best to describe out project in one big presentation, and take questions at the end.
- You’ll remember that 4 focus groups were established. Meetings were held in all 3 countries. Common workshop materials were used and standard templates to gather and record information. We asked you:..
- All countries have good access to climate change data info and to observed climate and river flow data, but would like: Skilful seasonal hydrological forecasts, though most suggest these are unlikely to offer enough skill to change their need to plan for the worst. In upland areas users find the current spatial resolution of climate change information inadequate. Other users want to understand hourly or sub-hourly changes, for example in rainfall intensity. For water supply in the UK and for all uses in the Júcar basin, understanding how drought indices may change is important This is not readily available from current generations of climate models. Less sophisticated groups (eg. Norway LA group) makes little use of climate info at present
- forcings
- I will improved it. I can also show an indicator for CP
- Main points for the demo: - High resolution indicators for climate change over this century - Design has focussed on user requirements for highly performant system to let them really look at and understand the information on display - Maps show average of the indicator from the modelled ensemble (currently base on the draft model output we've produced) - Describe list of indicators across precip, flow, soil moisture,etc. - Show how users can include / exclude climate and hydrological models to understand their affect on ensemble average - Show performance for varying time slice on display and for zooming - Show how dynamic legend can allow variation in less contrasting areas to be accentuated, and also to create maps to pick up on specific features, e.g. change </> 10%. Is this a good idea? - Highlight links to help information and in future user guidance - Show graphing tool, focussing in on a specific area and indicator (we'll have to find one that doesn't look too weird) - Demonstrate download functionality, and explain how this comes from an API for the indicators
- Main points for the demo: - High resolution indicators for climate change over this century - Design has focussed on user requirements for highly performant system to let them really look at and understand the information on display - Maps show average of the indicator from the modelled ensemble (currently base on the draft model output we've produced) - Describe list of indicators across precip, flow, soil moisture,etc. - Show how users can include / exclude climate and hydrological models to understand their affect on ensemble average - Show performance for varying time slice on display and for zooming - Show how dynamic legend can allow variation in less contrasting areas to be accentuated, and also to create maps to pick up on specific features, e.g. change </> 10%. Is this a good idea? - Highlight links to help information and in future user guidance - Show graphing tool, focussing in on a specific area and indicator (we'll have to find one that doesn't look too weird) - Demonstrate download functionality, and explain how this comes from an API for the indicators
- The vision of EDgE is to break down barriers for users of a range of different backgrounds to access and understand hydrological predictions. This is delivered through a fully integrative project identifying who are the users and what is their need, developing state-of-the-art hydrological solutions, and building a fast and easy to use web interface application. At the core of EDgE is the iterative co-design and testing of products and services with the users.