Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1

1
Arbor Economic Overview Q1 2020
U.S. Recession
-900.0
-600.0
-300.0
0.0
300.0
600.0
Mar-05 Sep-06 Mar-08 Sep-09 Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Mar-20
Monthly Change 12-Month Moving Average
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
Employment Growth, Monthly
United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March 2020, measuring the effects of COVID-19 and efforts to contain it. Employment
in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and
social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.

2
U.S. Recession
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Unemployment Rate (%)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Employment and Training Administration; National Bureau of Economic Research
Unemployment Rate
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period
In March, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%. This is the largest over-the-month increase in the rate since January 1975. The number
of unemployed persons rose by 1.4 million to 7.1 million in March. The sharp increases in these measures reflect the effects of the
coronavirus and efforts to contain it.

3
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Mar-68 Mar-72 Mar-76 Mar-80 Mar-84 Mar-88 Mar-92 Mar-96 Mar-00 Mar-04 Mar-08 Mar-12 Mar-16 Mar-20
U.S. Recession Initial Claims
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Weekly Ending Saturday, Updated April 2, 2020
March 28, 2020
6.6 Million
Jobless claims continued to take a massive hit on U.S. employment during the week ended March 28, as an additional 6.6 million workers
applied for unemployment claims, up from a record-breaking 3.3 million during the previous week. Before the coronavirus shutdown, the
highest week for claims was 695,000 in 1982 and the Great Recession high was 665,000 in March 2009.

4
Mining and
Logging
0.5%
Construction
4.9%
Manufacturing
8.5%
Trade,
Transportation,
and Utilities
18.2%
Information
1.9%
Financial
Activities
5.8%
Professional
and Business
Services
14.1%
Education and
Health Services
16.3%
Leisure and
Hospitality
10.6%
Other Services
3.9%
Government
15.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment By Industry
United States, Thousands, March 2020
Employment Growth By Industry
United States, 12-Month % Change, March 2020
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Total Nonfarm
-5.0% -2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0%

5
Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area
Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, March 2019 to March 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
In March, Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI, and
Urban Honolulu, HI, had the lowest
unemployment rates, 2.1% each, while El
Centro, CA, had the highest unemployment
rate, 20.5%.
A total of 226 areas had March jobless rates
below the U.S. rate of 4.5 percent, 150
areas had rates above it, and 13 areas had
rates equal to that of the nation.
El Centro, CA, had the largest over-the-year
unemployment rate increase in March (+3.9
percentage points). A total of 117 other
areas had rate increases of at least 1.0
percentage point. The largest over-the-year
rate decrease occurred in Yakima, WA (-2.5
percentage points).

6
U.S. Recession
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
CPI All Items Rent of Primary Residence
Consumer Price Index and Rent of Primary Residence
United States, All Items, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, 1982-84=100
Over the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 1.5%. A sharp decline in the gasoline index was a major cause of the
decrease, along with decreases for airline fares, lodging away from home, and apparel. Key indicators of affordability also worsened, as the
CPI rent index increased 3.7%, significantly higher than inflation, while average hourly earnings rose at a slower rate of 3.1%.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research

7
U.S. Recession
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20
Real Gross Domestic Product (%) 15-Year Average
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Real Gross Domestic Product
United States, Quarterly Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Based on Chained 2009 Dollars
The decline in first quarter GDP was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued "stay-at-home" orders
in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers
canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending.

8
U.S. Recession
$12.0
$14.5
$17.0
$19.5
$22.0
1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20
Real Gross Domestic Product ($)
Real Gross Domestic Product
United States, Trillions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Quarterly

9
U.S. Recession
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Corporate Profits Compensation of Employees
Corporate Profits and Compensation of Employees
Includes Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Quarterly, Index 1954=100
“The trends of the two series tend to track each other over several decades, reflecting the general growth of the economy. The past
decade and a half seems to be different, though. Never have corporate profits outgrown employee compensation so clearly and for so
long.” - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 9, 2018

10
U.S. Recession
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
Home Price Growth
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 4.2% annual gain in February, up from 3.9% in the previous
month. Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Phoenix led the
way with a 7.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.0% increase, and Tampa and Charlotte with 5.2% increases.

11
U.S. Recession
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YTD20
Homeownership Rate Homeowner Vacancy Rental Vacancy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Homeownership Rate
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period
The homeownership rate was 65.1% at the end of 2019, remaining at the highest level since 2014. Increased first-time homeowner
demand was one of the biggest trends influencing the housing market, as the homeownership rate for those under 35 years old increased
to 37.6%, up from the most recent low of 34.1%, the largest increase for all age groups since 2016.

12
30.0%
42.0%
54.0%
66.0%
78.0%
90.0%
All ages Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over
Previous Peak (2003) Year-End 2019
Homeownership Rate by Age of Householder
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

13
13
Homeownership and Household Formation
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD20
Thousands
Owner-Occupied Housing Units (Millions) Renter-Occupied Housing Units (Millions) Homeownership Rate (%)

14
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Apr-33to
Apr-37
Jul-38to
Jan-45
Nov-45to
Oct-48
Nov-49to
Jun-53
Jun-54to
Jul-57
May-58to
Mar-60
Mar-61to
Nov-69
Dec-70to
Oct-73
Apr-75to
Dec-79
Aug-80to
Jun-81
Dec-82to
Jun-90
Apr-91to
Feb-01
Dec-01to
Nov-07
Jul-09to
Current
Time Between Recessions (Months) Average
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
Durations of Expansions: Time Between Recessions
NBER-Based Recession Indicators for the U.S. from the Peak Through the Trough
The economy grew for 129 consecutive months,
the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.

15
U.S. Recession
0.0%
1.5%
3.0%
4.5%
6.0%
3-Month Treasury 2-Year Treasury 10-Year Treasury 30-Year Treasury
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Treasury Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions
Monthly, End of Period, Not Seasonally Adjusted
“Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future
real economic activity.” - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

16
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Excess Reserves Required Reserves U.S. Recession
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Trillions

17
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
U.S. Recession St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period, Version 2.0
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index attempts to measure financial market stress by combining many indicators into a single index
number. One type of risk prominent in the 2008-2009 financial crisis is once again present—in the current COVID-19 novel coronavirus
crisis. It is the inability of many financial institutions to secure funding to finance their short-term liabilities, known as liquidity risk.

18
U.S. Recession
$0.0
$25.0
$50.0
$75.0
$100.0
$125.0
$150.0
WTI Crude ($)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
Dollars per Barrel, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period
“Global oil demand is being destroyed as the coronavirus forces people around the world to remain indoors and avoid all unnecessary
travel. U.S. oil demand has now fallen to 14.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in data going back to 1990 and a drop of more than 30%
from pre-crisis levels.” - Bloomberg, April 9, 2020

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About Us
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ABR) is a nationwide real estate investment trust and direct lender, providing loan
origination and servicing for multifamily, single-family rental (SFR) portfolios, seniors housing, healthcare and other
diverse commercial real estate assets. Headquartered in Uniondale, New York, Arbor manages a multibillion-dollar
servicing portfolio, specializing in government-sponsored enterprise products. Arbor is a Fannie Mae DUS® lender and
Freddie Mac Optigo Seller/Servicer. Arbor’s product platform also includes CMBS, bridge, mezzanine and preferred
equity loans. Rated by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, Arbor is committed to building on its reputation for
service, quality and customized solutions with an unparalleled dedication to providing our clients excellence over the
entire life of a loan.
The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news,
research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice;
all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not
warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or
damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past
performance is not indicative of future performance.

Arbor EconomicOverview 2020 Q1

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