SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  30
Télécharger pour lire hors ligne
U.S. Economic
Overview
Q2 2020
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
1
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jul-70 Jul-75 Jul-80 Jul-85 Jul-90 Jul-95 Jul-00 Jul-05 Jul-10 Jul-15 Jul-20
U.S. Recession Unemployment Rate (%)
U.S. Recessions and Peak Unemployment Rates
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research; retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and GitHub
Oil Crisis
9.0%
Rising Inflation;
Iranian Revolution
10.8%
Savings and Loan Crisis
7.8%
Dot-Com Bubble;
September 11th Attacks
6.3%
Financial Crisis
10.0%
COVID-19
14.7%
2
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
14
9
12
11
9
11
12
17
7
17
9 9
19
5
0
5
10
15
20
May-37to
Jun-38
Feb-45to
Oct-45
Nov-48to
Oct-49
Jul-53to
May-54
Aug-57to
Apr-58
Apr-60to
Feb-61
Dec-69to
Nov-70
Nov-73to
Mar-75
Jan-80to
Jul-80
Jul-81to
Nov-82
Jul-90to
Mar-91
Mar-01to
Nov-01
Dec-07to
Jun-09
Mar-20to
Jul-20
Duration of Recession (Months) Average
Duration of Recessions
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Longest Recession (Dec-07 to Jun-09): 19 mo.
Average Recession: 12 mo.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
3
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
49
79
36
44
38
23
105
35
57
11
91
119
72
129
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Apr-33to
Apr-37
Jul-38to
Jan-45
Nov-45to
Oct-48
Nov-49to
Jun-53
Jun-54to
Jul-57
May-58to
Mar-60
Mar-61to
Nov-69
Dec-70to
Oct-73
Apr-75to
Dec-79
Aug-80to
Jun-81
Dec-82to
Jun-90
Apr-91to
Feb-01
Dec-01to
Nov-07
Jul-09to
Feb-20
Time Between Recessions (Months) Average
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
Durations of Expansions: Time Between Recessions
NBER-Based Recession Indicators for the U.S. from the Peak Through the Trough, Months
The economy grew for 129 consecutive months,
the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.
4
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
-33.0
-22.0
-11.0
0.0
11.0
22.0
33.0
Jul-70 Jul-75 Jul-80 Jul-85 Jul-90 Jul-95 Jul-00 Jul-05 Jul-10 Jul-15 Jul-20
Thousands
Jobs Lost/Gained
Downturns and Recoveries of Recessions
United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions, Peak to Trough
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
Nov-70
-1.2M
Apr-75
-2.2M
May-91
-1.6M
Feb-10
-8.7M
Apr-20
-22.2M
Current: Jul-20
-12.9M
Jul-80
-1.1M
Dec-82
-2.8M
Aug-03
-2.6M
Jul-74
7.2M
Jul-90
18.2M
Jan-08
5.6M
Feb-20
14.1M
Mar-90
12.4M
Jul-81
0.6M
Feb-01
23.0M
5
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
Job Losses During Recessions and Months to Recover to Previous Employment Levels
United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, From Start of Recession, Duration of Recession in Months
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
Duration of Recession (Months)
ChangeinTotalEmployment(Millions)
Other Post-WWII Recessions
Great Recession
Dec. 2007 through Jun. 2009
Trough in February 2010: -8.7 million
78 months to recovery
Current Recession
Mar. 2020 through Current
Trough in April 2020: -22.2 million
July 2020: -12.9 million
6
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
145.0
150.0
155.0
Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20
Total Nonfarm Payroll Emplyoment (Millions)
Employment
United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Millions
July 2020: 1.8 million jobs gained
(remaining 12.9 million below pre-COVID peak)
COVID-19 Trough April 2020: -22.2 million
Great Recession Trough March 2009: -803,000
Ten years of job growth were wiped out in one month, when 20.8 million jobs were lost in April 2020. In comparison, a total of 8.7 million
jobs were lost during the Great Recession. The economy added back 1.8 million jobs in July 2020, marking the third consecutive month of
jobs gains, yet remained 12.8 million jobs below the pre-pandemic level.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
7
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Change By Industry - COVID-19
United States, 12-Month % Change, February to July 2020
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Total Nonfarm
-25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0%
Employment Change By Industry - Month
United States, 1-Month % Change, July 2020
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Total Nonfarm
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
8
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jul-05 Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Jan-19 Jul-20
Unemployment Rate (%)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
Unemployment Rate
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly
In July, the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2%, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.4 million to 16.3
million. Despite declines over the past 3 months, these measures were up by 6.7 percentage points and 10.6 million, respectively, since
February. The unemployment rate at the peak of the Great Recession was 10.0%.
July 2020: 10.2%
COVID-19 Peak April 2020: 14.7%
Great Recession Peak October 2009: 10.0%
Great Depression 1930s: 25% (estimate)
July 2020: 16.3 million
COVID-19 Peak April 2020: 23.1 million
Great Recession Peak October 2009: 15.4 million
9
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Wall Street Journal
Duration of Unemployment
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions
An increasing number of workers were unemployed for more
than three months in July, a signal that the coronavirus pandemic
is likely to have a lasting economic impact on many people.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
Thousands
Temporary Layoff Permanent
Job Leavers Other
As people temporarily laid off have returned to work, those with
a permanent job loss and new workers have faced stable
unemployment.
Reasons for Unemployment
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
Thousands
Less than 5 Weeks 5 to 14 Weeks
15 to 26 Weeks 27 Weeks and Over
10
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Wall Street Journal
Part-Time Workers by Reason
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions
Those working part time has remained stable, though more
people are in such jobs for economic reasons.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
Thousands
Business Conditions Could Only Find Part-Time
Noneconomic Reasons
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20
U-1 (15+ Weeks) U-3 (Unemployment)
U-6 (Underemployment)
The U-3 unemployment rate represents the number of people
actively seeking a job. The U-6 rate includes discouraged,
underemployed, and unemployed workers.
Additional Measures of Unemployment
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Percent of Labor Force
11
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
3.3
6.9
6.6
5.2
4.4
3.9
3.2
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
1.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1/4
1/11
1/18
1/25
2/1
2/8
2/15
2/22
2/29
3/7
3/14
3/21
3/28
4/4
4/11
4/18
4/25
5/2
5/9
5/16
5/23
5/30
6/6
6/13
6/20
6/27
7/4
7/11
7/18
7/25
8/1
Millions
Initial Claims (Millions)
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration
Weekly Jobless Claims
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions, Week Ending Saturday, Millions
A total of 1.186 million workers filed for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 1st. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had
forecast 1.4 million initial claims. Jobless claims have exceeded one million for 20 consecutive weeks, totaling more than 55 million workers.
There were 16.0 million workers filing for ongoing benefits in the week ended July 25th, higher than the 16.9 million forecasted.
Week Ending August 1, 2020: 1.186 million
Continued Claims: 16.1 million
COVID-19 Total: 55.3 million
COVID-19 Peak March 28, 2020: 6.9 million
Previous Peak October 2, 1982: 695,000
12
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Growth By Industry
United States, 12-Month % Change, July 2020
Mining and Logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Total Nonfarm
-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%
Mining and
Logging
0.5%
Construction
5.3%
Manufacturing
8.8%
Trade,
Transportation,
and Utilities
18.8%
Information
1.9%
Financial
Activities
6.3%
Professional
and Business
Services
14.4%
Education and
Health Services
16.3%
Leisure and
Hospitality
9.4%
Other Services
3.9%
Government
14.6%
Employment By Industry
United States, Thousands, July 2020
13
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area
Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, June 2019 to June 2020
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
In June, 307 metropolitan areas had over-
the-year decreases in nonfarm payroll
employment and 82 were essentially
unchanged.
The largest over-the-year employment
decreases occurred in New York-Newark-
Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (-1,549,100), Los
Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
(-650,400), and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-
IN-WI (-466,800).
The largest over-the-year percentage losses
in employment occurred in Atlantic City-
Hammonton, NJ (-29.2 %), Ocean City, NJ
(-28.7 %), and Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
(-26.5 %).
Over the year, nonfarm employment
declined in all of the 51 metropolitan areas
with a 2010 Census population of 1 million
or more.
14
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
White
Black or
African American
Asian
Jul-19 Jun-20 Jul-20
Employment Status by Race and Educational Attainment
Household Data, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment by Race
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Less than a
high school diploma
High school graduates,
no college
Some college
or associate degree
Bachelor's degree
and higher
Jul-19 Jun-20 Jul-20
Unemployment by Educational Attainment
15
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12 Jun-14 Dec-15 Jun-17 Dec-18 Jun-20
Thousands
Job Openings
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job Openings
United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period, Millions
The number of job openings increased to 5.9 million on the last business day of June. Hires decreased to 6.7 million, but was still the second
highest level in series history, behind May 2020. These changes in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that
had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it.
June 2020: 5.9 million
Peak in January 2019: 7.5 million
16
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20
Real Gross Domestic Product (%) 15-Year Average
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Gross Domestic Product
United States, Quarterly Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Based on Chained 2009 Dollars
GDP decreased at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2 2020, bringing the 15-year average down to 1.1%, from 1.7%. The decline in second
quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as "stay-at-home" orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of
the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses.
17
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
$12.0
$14.5
$17.0
$19.5
$22.0
2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20
Real Gross Domestic Product ($)
Gross Domestic Product - Total
United States, Trillions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Quarterly
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
18
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
Jul-05 Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Jan-19 Jul-20
CPI All Items Rent of Primary Residence
Consumer Price Index and Rent of Primary Residence
United States, All Items, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, 1982-84=100
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0% for the 12 months ending July, a larger increase than the 0.6%
rise for the period ending June. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.6% over the last 12 months. Despite increasing in
July, the energy index fell 11.2% over the last 12 months.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
19
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Corporate Profits Compensation of Employees
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Corporate Profits and Compensation of Employees
Includes Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Quarterly, Index 1954=100
“The trends of the two series tend to track each other over several decades, reflecting the general growth of the economy. The past
decade and a half seems to be different, though. Never have corporate profits outgrown employee compensation so clearly and for so
long.” - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 9, 2018
20
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
Home Price Growth
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The novel coronavirus has finally put the brakes on home price growth. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller’s national home price index posted a
4.5% annual gain in May, down from 4.6% a month earlier. For the 12th consecutive month, Phoenix led the 20-City Composite posting a
9.0% annual gain. Seattle and Tampa followed reporting a 6.8% and 6.0% annual gain, respectively. - Yahoo Finance
21
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YTD20
Homeownership Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Homeownership Rate
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period
The homeownership rate of 67.9% was 3.8% higher than Q2 2019 (64.1%) and 2.6% higher than Q1 2020 (65.3%). The highest level since
2008. There was a large increase in the number of homeowners combined with a very large drop in the number of renters. One of the
largest changes in both numbers on record. Households under 35 jumped by 4.2% year-over-year, ages 35-44 were up by 4.9%.
22
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
22
Homeownership and Household Formation
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Millions, Annual, End of Period
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18 2Q19 4Q19 2Q20
Thousands
Owner-Occupied Housing Units Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
There was a large increase in the number of homeowners combined with a very large drop in the number of renters. One of the largest
changes in both numbers on record. Owner-occupied housing units made up 61.2% of total housing units (+4,771 during the quarter),
while renter-occupied units made up 29.0% of the inventory (-2,381).
23
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
30.0%
42.0%
54.0%
66.0%
78.0%
90.0%
All ages Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over
Previous Peak (2004) Q2 2020
Homeownership Rate by Age of Householder
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
First-time home buyers continued to drive demand. The big gains during 2020 have come from young households. Households under 35
jumped by 4.2% year-over-year, while ages 35-44 were up by 4.9%. As millennials begin to make lifestyle decisions, such as getting married
and having children, this percentage will continue to increase.
24
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
30.0%
42.0%
54.0%
66.0%
78.0%
90.0%
U.S. Non-Hispanic White Black Alone All Other Races Hispanic (of any race)
Previous Peak (2004) Q2 2020
Homeownership Rate by Race and Ethnicity of Householder
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Although homeownership rates for other racial groups have largely recovered since the 2008 housing crisis, black homeownership
continues to decline. Last year marked the fifth consecutive annual increase in the Hispanic homeownership rate, the only demographic
with five consecutive years of gains.
25
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20
S&P 500 (^GSPC)
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices; National Bureau of Economic Research
Stock Prices: S&P 500
Currency in USD, Adjusted Close, Monthly, Beginning of Period
At the end of July, the S&P 500 had nearly returned to levels seen prior to the February peak, when investors started dumping shares in
advance of the coronavirus pandemic. Stocks have been boosted by low interest rates, trillions of dollars in stimulus, and better-than-
expected corporate earnings.
26
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20
Excess Reserves Required Reserves U.S. Recession
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Trillions
“Analysts were caught off guard in April when the banks said they were setting aside billions of extra dollars for potential losses,
hammering their first-quarter earnings. Several banking executives said they expected to set aside more money for bad loans in the second
quarter than they did in the first.” - The Wall Street Journal
27
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20
U.S. Recession St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period, Version 2.0
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index attempts to measure financial market stress by combining many indicators into a single index
number. One type of risk prominent in the 2008-2009 financial crisis is once again present—in the current COVID-19 novel coronavirus
crisis. It is the inability of many financial institutions to secure funding to finance their short-term liabilities, known as liquidity risk.
28
U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020
U.S. Recession
$0.0
$25.0
$50.0
$75.0
$100.0
$125.0
$150.0
Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20
WTI Crude ($)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
Dollars per Barrel, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period
“Global oil demand is being destroyed as the coronavirus forces people around the world to remain indoors and avoid all unnecessary
travel. U.S. oil demand has now fallen to 14.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in data going back to 1990 and a drop of more than 30%
from pre-crisis levels.” - Bloomberg, April 9, 2020
ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10
About Us
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ABR) is a nationwide real estate investment trust and direct lender, providing loan
origination and servicing for multifamily, single-family rental (SFR) portfolios, seniors housing, healthcare and other
diverse commercial real estate assets. Headquartered in Uniondale, New York, Arbor manages a multibillion-dollar
servicing portfolio, specializing in government-sponsored enterprise products. Arbor is a Fannie Mae DUS® lender and
Freddie Mac Optigo Seller/Servicer. Arbor’s product platform also includes CMBS, bridge, mezzanine and preferred
equity loans. Rated by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, Arbor is committed to building on its reputation for
service, quality and customized solutions with an unparalleled dedication to providing our clients excellence over the
entire life of a loan.
The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news,
research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice;
all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not
warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or
damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past
performance is not indicative of future performance.

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Weekly media update 05 07_2021
Weekly media update 05 07_2021Weekly media update 05 07_2021
Weekly media update 05 07_2021BalmerLawrie
 
Japan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensions
Japan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensionsJapan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensions
Japan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensionsGaetan Lion
 
Weekly media update 16 08_2021
Weekly media update 16 08_2021Weekly media update 16 08_2021
Weekly media update 16 08_2021BalmerLawrie
 
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Gaetan Lion
 
Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021
Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021
Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021Círculo de Empresarios
 
Weekly media update 21 09_2020
Weekly media update 21 09_2020Weekly media update 21 09_2020
Weekly media update 21 09_2020BalmerLawrie
 
Jean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, Merial
Jean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, MerialJean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, Merial
Jean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, MerialKisaco Research
 
Weekly media update 17 08_2020
Weekly media update 17 08_2020Weekly media update 17 08_2020
Weekly media update 17 08_2020BalmerLawrie
 
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...rmcnab67
 
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016Mark Kooymans (M.Econ)
 
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on track
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on trackMay 2015 - Getting productivity back on track
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on trackFGV Brazil
 
Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly Kelly Services
 
Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19
Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19
Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19Uri Goren
 
Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018
Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018
Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018Círculo de Empresarios
 
Simplify Markets Q1 2020
Simplify Markets Q1 2020Simplify Markets Q1 2020
Simplify Markets Q1 2020SamDodimead
 
Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up
Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up
Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up paul young cpa, cga
 
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continues
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continuesSwiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continues
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continuesΔρ. Γιώργος K. Κασάπης
 

Tendances (19)

Weekly media update 05 07_2021
Weekly media update 05 07_2021Weekly media update 05 07_2021
Weekly media update 05 07_2021
 
Japan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensions
Japan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensionsJapan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensions
Japan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensions
 
Weekly media update 16 08_2021
Weekly media update 16 08_2021Weekly media update 16 08_2021
Weekly media update 16 08_2021
 
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?
 
Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021
Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021
Global and Spanish economic perspectives Q2 2021
 
Weekly media update 21 09_2020
Weekly media update 21 09_2020Weekly media update 21 09_2020
Weekly media update 21 09_2020
 
Q32016 global tmq
Q32016 global tmqQ32016 global tmq
Q32016 global tmq
 
Jean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, Merial
Jean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, MerialJean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, Merial
Jean-Luc Michel, Head of Global Commercial Development, Merial
 
Pwc world-in-2050-slide-pack-feb-2017
Pwc world-in-2050-slide-pack-feb-2017Pwc world-in-2050-slide-pack-feb-2017
Pwc world-in-2050-slide-pack-feb-2017
 
Weekly media update 17 08_2020
Weekly media update 17 08_2020Weekly media update 17 08_2020
Weekly media update 17 08_2020
 
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...
2018 Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy - (31 J...
 
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
GDP & Comms (Mar Qtr 2016) - June 2016
 
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on track
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on trackMay 2015 - Getting productivity back on track
May 2015 - Getting productivity back on track
 
Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly
Q4 2016 Talent Market Quarterly
 
Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19
Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19
Our new-world - Mary Meeker and BOND report on COVID19
 
Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018
Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018
Global and Spanish economy 4Q-17 and outlook 2018
 
Simplify Markets Q1 2020
Simplify Markets Q1 2020Simplify Markets Q1 2020
Simplify Markets Q1 2020
 
Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up
Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up
Global Economy and COVID - Steps taken to open up
 
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continues
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continuesSwiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continues
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continues
 

Similaire à U.S. Economic Overview | Q2 2020

Game change in global economics
Game change in global economicsGame change in global economics
Game change in global economicsSelvan Athishtaraj
 
Client call materials_27_may20
Client call materials_27_may20Client call materials_27_may20
Client call materials_27_may20Chris Skinner
 
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFBGraphics
 
Magna 20 mar - impacts on global advertising - en
Magna  20 mar - impacts on global advertising - enMagna  20 mar - impacts on global advertising - en
Magna 20 mar - impacts on global advertising - enSebnem Ozdemir
 
Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly Report
Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly ReportPerspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly Report
Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly ReportCírculo de Empresarios
 
February 2016 - Municipal Market Report
February 2016 - Municipal Market ReportFebruary 2016 - Municipal Market Report
February 2016 - Municipal Market ReportJoshua Moews
 
Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020
Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020
Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020Círculo de Empresarios
 
Wisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic UpdateWisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic UpdateTheChamber
 
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de EmpresariosPerspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de EmpresariosCírculo de Empresarios
 
Weekly media update 19 10_2020
Weekly media update 19 10_2020Weekly media update 19 10_2020
Weekly media update 19 10_2020BalmerLawrie
 
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)DVSResearchFoundatio
 
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook PresentationCharis Whitbourne
 
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)PwC France
 
Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our Communities
Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our CommunitiesEconomic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our Communities
Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our CommunitiesNicolasMontenegro13
 
The New Normal (with Covid-19) from here on
The New Normal (with Covid-19) from here onThe New Normal (with Covid-19) from here on
The New Normal (with Covid-19) from here onAmalist Client Services
 
Country reports south_america_2016_crsa1601en
Country reports south_america_2016_crsa1601enCountry reports south_america_2016_crsa1601en
Country reports south_america_2016_crsa1601enEthos Media S.A.
 

Similaire à U.S. Economic Overview | Q2 2020 (20)

Game change in global economics
Game change in global economicsGame change in global economics
Game change in global economics
 
Game change in global economy
Game change in global economyGame change in global economy
Game change in global economy
 
Client call materials_27_may20
Client call materials_27_may20Client call materials_27_may20
Client call materials_27_may20
 
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptxCRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
CRFB_Fiscal Policy in High Inflation.pptx
 
Magna 20 mar - impacts on global advertising - en
Magna  20 mar - impacts on global advertising - enMagna  20 mar - impacts on global advertising - en
Magna 20 mar - impacts on global advertising - en
 
Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly Report
Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly ReportPerspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly Report
Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q4_2020 Quarterly Report
 
February 2016 - Municipal Market Report
February 2016 - Municipal Market ReportFebruary 2016 - Municipal Market Report
February 2016 - Municipal Market Report
 
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
Georgia business brokers 3 28-17
 
Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020
Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020
Quarterly Report Perspectives Spanish and Global Economy Q3-2020
 
Wisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic UpdateWisconsin Economic Update
Wisconsin Economic Update
 
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de EmpresariosPerspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
Perspectives on Global and Spanish Economy Q3-2018 Circulo de Empresarios
 
Weekly media update 19 10_2020
Weekly media update 19 10_2020Weekly media update 19 10_2020
Weekly media update 19 10_2020
 
Covid 19- a macroeconomic perspective
Covid 19- a macroeconomic perspectiveCovid 19- a macroeconomic perspective
Covid 19- a macroeconomic perspective
 
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)
IMF World Economic Outlook - April 2020 (as updated by June 2020 Forecast)
 
2016_Outlook
2016_Outlook2016_Outlook
2016_Outlook
 
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
2020 Vancouver Strategic Outlook Presentation
 
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
PwC Global Economy Watch (oct. 2013)
 
Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our Communities
Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our CommunitiesEconomic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our Communities
Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our Communities
 
The New Normal (with Covid-19) from here on
The New Normal (with Covid-19) from here onThe New Normal (with Covid-19) from here on
The New Normal (with Covid-19) from here on
 
Country reports south_america_2016_crsa1601en
Country reports south_america_2016_crsa1601enCountry reports south_america_2016_crsa1601en
Country reports south_america_2016_crsa1601en
 

Plus de Ivan Kaufman

Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...
 Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M... Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...
Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...Ivan Kaufman
 
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros Ivan Kaufman
 
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters Ivan Kaufman
 
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Ivan Kaufman
 
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...Ivan Kaufman
 
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment?
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment? How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment?
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment? Ivan Kaufman
 
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020Ivan Kaufman
 
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Ivan Kaufman
 
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment Assets
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment AssetsFewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment Assets
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment AssetsIvan Kaufman
 
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...Ivan Kaufman
 
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019Ivan Kaufman
 
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019Ivan Kaufman
 
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce Housing
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce HousingSmall Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce Housing
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce HousingIvan Kaufman
 
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...Ivan Kaufman
 
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...Ivan Kaufman
 
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019 Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019 Ivan Kaufman
 
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter Shares
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter SharesSmall Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter Shares
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter SharesIvan Kaufman
 
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...Ivan Kaufman
 
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4Ivan Kaufman
 
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?Ivan Kaufman
 

Plus de Ivan Kaufman (20)

Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...
 Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M... Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...
Small Apartment Properties Form Core of Workforce Rental Demand In the Top M...
 
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros
Workforce Rental Demand Growing Faster In Smaller Metros
 
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters
The Changing Occupational Profile of Workforce Segment Renters
 
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Single-Family Rentals | Q2 2020 | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
 
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...
Multifamily Properties Capture Largest Share of Overall U.S. Workforce Housin...
 
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment?
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment? How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment?
How Large is the Workforce Housing Rental Segment?
 
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020
Arbor Small Multifamily Report Q1 2020
 
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
Arbor Single Family Rentals Report 2020 Q1
 
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment Assets
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment AssetsFewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment Assets
Fewer Households Cost Burdened in Small Apartment Assets
 
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...
Small Apartment Properties Pack Value For Money with More Space in Urban Adja...
 
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019
Small Multifamily Loans | Arbor Q4 2019
 
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019
Single-Family Rentals | Arbor Q4 2019
 
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce Housing
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce HousingSmall Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce Housing
Small Apartment Buildings Vital for Urban Workforce Housing
 
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...
Older Households Make Gains in Small Asset Unit Demand, Millennial Households...
 
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...
Families With Children Dominate Single-Family Rental Demand, Single Renters o...
 
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019 Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019
Single-Family Rental Market | Q3 2019
 
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter Shares
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter SharesSmall Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter Shares
Small Buildings Still Dominate Apartment Renter Shares
 
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...
Small Building Renters Are Growing in a Handful of Regional Markets Amidst Ge...
 
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4
Arbor Multifamily Small Loans Report 2018 Q4
 
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?
Are Baby Boomers the New Millennials in Multifamily?
 

Dernier

BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...ApartmentWala1
 
Nyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdf
Nyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdfNyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdf
Nyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdfabbu831446
 
~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhi
~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhi~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhi
~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhiasmaqueen5
 
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024VickyAulakh1
 
Kalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Kalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune  E-Brochure.pdfKalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune  E-Brochure.pdf
Kalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune E-Brochure.pdfManishSaxena95
 
Eldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdf
Eldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdfEldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdf
Eldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdfkratirudram
 
construction material procurement in India
construction material procurement in Indiaconstruction material procurement in India
construction material procurement in Indiarohanindosup
 
Acibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin Turkey
Acibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin TurkeyAcibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin Turkey
Acibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin TurkeyListing Turkey
 
Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...
Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...
Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...asmaqueen5
 
Kohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living Spaces
Kohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living SpacesKohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living Spaces
Kohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living Spacesaidasheikh47
 
BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...
BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...
BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...ApartmentWala1
 
Explore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & Requirements
Explore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & RequirementsExplore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & Requirements
Explore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & Requirementsmarketingkingdomofku
 
Ganga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdf
Ganga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdfGanga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdf
Ganga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdfsabhyara24
 
Best Interior Design Services in Haldwani
Best Interior Design Services in HaldwaniBest Interior Design Services in Haldwani
Best Interior Design Services in HaldwaniGeomatrix
 
Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)
Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)
Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)knoxdigital1
 
Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)delhi24hrs1
 
Bptp The Amaario Launch Luxury Project Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...
Bptp The Amaario Launch  Luxury Project  Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...Bptp The Amaario Launch  Luxury Project  Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...
Bptp The Amaario Launch Luxury Project Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...ApartmentWala1
 
Kohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune  E-Brochure.pdfKohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune  E-Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune E-Brochure.pdfManishSaxena95
 
Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...
Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...
Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...asmaqueen5
 
Retail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WI
Retail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WIRetail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WI
Retail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WILee & Associates of Madison, WI
 

Dernier (20)

BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
 
Nyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdf
Nyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdfNyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdf
Nyati Elite NIBM Road Pune E Brochure.pdf
 
~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhi
~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhi~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhi
~Call Girls In Roop Nagar {8447779280}(Low Price) Escort Service In Delhi
 
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
 
Kalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Kalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune  E-Brochure.pdfKalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune  E-Brochure.pdf
Kalpataru Exquisite Wakad Pune E-Brochure.pdf
 
Eldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdf
Eldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdfEldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdf
Eldeco Dwarka Project In Delhi-brochure.pdf.pdf
 
construction material procurement in India
construction material procurement in Indiaconstruction material procurement in India
construction material procurement in India
 
Acibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin Turkey
Acibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin TurkeyAcibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin Turkey
Acibadem Konaklari Uskudar - Listin Turkey
 
Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...
Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...
Call Girls in Maurice Nagar (Delhi) ꧁8447779280꧂ Female Escorts Service in De...
 
Kohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living Spaces
Kohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living SpacesKohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living Spaces
Kohinoor Courtyard One Wakad Pune | Elegant Living Spaces
 
BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...
BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...
BPTP THE AMAARIO For The Royals Of Tomorrow in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expr...
 
Explore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & Requirements
Explore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & RequirementsExplore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & Requirements
Explore Dual Citizenship in Africa | Citizenship Benefits & Requirements
 
Ganga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdf
Ganga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdfGanga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdf
Ganga Platinum Kharadi Pune brochure.pdf
 
Best Interior Design Services in Haldwani
Best Interior Design Services in HaldwaniBest Interior Design Services in Haldwani
Best Interior Design Services in Haldwani
 
Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)
Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)
Madhugiri Boucher Managed Farmland (knx)
 
Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9582086666▻✨Call Girls In Gurgaon Sector 1 (Gurgaon)
 
Bptp The Amaario Launch Luxury Project Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...
Bptp The Amaario Launch  Luxury Project  Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...Bptp The Amaario Launch  Luxury Project  Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...
Bptp The Amaario Launch Luxury Project Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwarka Expressway...
 
Kohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune E-Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune  E-Brochure.pdfKohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune  E-Brochure.pdf
Kohinoor Teiko Hinjewadi Phase 2 Pune E-Brochure.pdf
 
Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...
Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...
Low rate ↬Call girls in Sabzi Mandi Delhi | 8447779280}Escort Service In All ...
 
Retail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WI
Retail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WIRetail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WI
Retail Space for Lease - 1221 W. Main St., Sun Prairie, WI
 

U.S. Economic Overview | Q2 2020

  • 2. 1 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jul-70 Jul-75 Jul-80 Jul-85 Jul-90 Jul-95 Jul-00 Jul-05 Jul-10 Jul-15 Jul-20 U.S. Recession Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Recessions and Peak Unemployment Rates United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research; retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and GitHub Oil Crisis 9.0% Rising Inflation; Iranian Revolution 10.8% Savings and Loan Crisis 7.8% Dot-Com Bubble; September 11th Attacks 6.3% Financial Crisis 10.0% COVID-19 14.7%
  • 3. 2 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 14 9 12 11 9 11 12 17 7 17 9 9 19 5 0 5 10 15 20 May-37to Jun-38 Feb-45to Oct-45 Nov-48to Oct-49 Jul-53to May-54 Aug-57to Apr-58 Apr-60to Feb-61 Dec-69to Nov-70 Nov-73to Mar-75 Jan-80to Jul-80 Jul-81to Nov-82 Jul-90to Mar-91 Mar-01to Nov-01 Dec-07to Jun-09 Mar-20to Jul-20 Duration of Recession (Months) Average Duration of Recessions NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Longest Recession (Dec-07 to Jun-09): 19 mo. Average Recession: 12 mo. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
  • 4. 3 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 49 79 36 44 38 23 105 35 57 11 91 119 72 129 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Apr-33to Apr-37 Jul-38to Jan-45 Nov-45to Oct-48 Nov-49to Jun-53 Jun-54to Jul-57 May-58to Mar-60 Mar-61to Nov-69 Dec-70to Oct-73 Apr-75to Dec-79 Aug-80to Jun-81 Dec-82to Jun-90 Apr-91to Feb-01 Dec-01to Nov-07 Jul-09to Feb-20 Time Between Recessions (Months) Average Source: National Bureau of Economic Research Durations of Expansions: Time Between Recessions NBER-Based Recession Indicators for the U.S. from the Peak Through the Trough, Months The economy grew for 129 consecutive months, the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.
  • 5. 4 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession -33.0 -22.0 -11.0 0.0 11.0 22.0 33.0 Jul-70 Jul-75 Jul-80 Jul-85 Jul-90 Jul-95 Jul-00 Jul-05 Jul-10 Jul-15 Jul-20 Thousands Jobs Lost/Gained Downturns and Recoveries of Recessions United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions, Peak to Trough Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research Nov-70 -1.2M Apr-75 -2.2M May-91 -1.6M Feb-10 -8.7M Apr-20 -22.2M Current: Jul-20 -12.9M Jul-80 -1.1M Dec-82 -2.8M Aug-03 -2.6M Jul-74 7.2M Jul-90 18.2M Jan-08 5.6M Feb-20 14.1M Mar-90 12.4M Jul-81 0.6M Feb-01 23.0M
  • 6. 5 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 Job Losses During Recessions and Months to Recover to Previous Employment Levels United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, From Start of Recession, Duration of Recession in Months Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research Duration of Recession (Months) ChangeinTotalEmployment(Millions) Other Post-WWII Recessions Great Recession Dec. 2007 through Jun. 2009 Trough in February 2010: -8.7 million 78 months to recovery Current Recession Mar. 2020 through Current Trough in April 2020: -22.2 million July 2020: -12.9 million
  • 7. 6 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 145.0 150.0 155.0 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Total Nonfarm Payroll Emplyoment (Millions) Employment United States, All Employees, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Millions July 2020: 1.8 million jobs gained (remaining 12.9 million below pre-COVID peak) COVID-19 Trough April 2020: -22.2 million Great Recession Trough March 2009: -803,000 Ten years of job growth were wiped out in one month, when 20.8 million jobs were lost in April 2020. In comparison, a total of 8.7 million jobs were lost during the Great Recession. The economy added back 1.8 million jobs in July 2020, marking the third consecutive month of jobs gains, yet remained 12.8 million jobs below the pre-pandemic level. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
  • 8. 7 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Change By Industry - COVID-19 United States, 12-Month % Change, February to July 2020 Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Total Nonfarm -25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% Employment Change By Industry - Month United States, 1-Month % Change, July 2020 Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Total Nonfarm -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
  • 9. 8 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Jul-05 Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Jan-19 Jul-20 Unemployment Rate (%) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research Unemployment Rate United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly In July, the unemployment rate declined by 0.9 percentage point to 10.2%, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.4 million to 16.3 million. Despite declines over the past 3 months, these measures were up by 6.7 percentage points and 10.6 million, respectively, since February. The unemployment rate at the peak of the Great Recession was 10.0%. July 2020: 10.2% COVID-19 Peak April 2020: 14.7% Great Recession Peak October 2009: 10.0% Great Depression 1930s: 25% (estimate) July 2020: 16.3 million COVID-19 Peak April 2020: 23.1 million Great Recession Peak October 2009: 15.4 million
  • 10. 9 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Wall Street Journal Duration of Unemployment United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions An increasing number of workers were unemployed for more than three months in July, a signal that the coronavirus pandemic is likely to have a lasting economic impact on many people. 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Thousands Temporary Layoff Permanent Job Leavers Other As people temporarily laid off have returned to work, those with a permanent job loss and new workers have faced stable unemployment. Reasons for Unemployment United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Thousands Less than 5 Weeks 5 to 14 Weeks 15 to 26 Weeks 27 Weeks and Over
  • 11. 10 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Wall Street Journal Part-Time Workers by Reason United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions Those working part time has remained stable, though more people are in such jobs for economic reasons. 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Thousands Business Conditions Could Only Find Part-Time Noneconomic Reasons 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 U-1 (15+ Weeks) U-3 (Unemployment) U-6 (Underemployment) The U-3 unemployment rate represents the number of people actively seeking a job. The U-6 rate includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers. Additional Measures of Unemployment United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Percent of Labor Force
  • 12. 11 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 3.3 6.9 6.6 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 1/4 1/11 1/18 1/25 2/1 2/8 2/15 2/22 2/29 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1 Millions Initial Claims (Millions) Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration Weekly Jobless Claims United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Millions, Week Ending Saturday, Millions A total of 1.186 million workers filed for unemployment insurance for the week ended August 1st. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast 1.4 million initial claims. Jobless claims have exceeded one million for 20 consecutive weeks, totaling more than 55 million workers. There were 16.0 million workers filing for ongoing benefits in the week ended July 25th, higher than the 16.9 million forecasted. Week Ending August 1, 2020: 1.186 million Continued Claims: 16.1 million COVID-19 Total: 55.3 million COVID-19 Peak March 28, 2020: 6.9 million Previous Peak October 2, 1982: 695,000
  • 13. 12 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Growth By Industry United States, 12-Month % Change, July 2020 Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Total Nonfarm -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% Mining and Logging 0.5% Construction 5.3% Manufacturing 8.8% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 18.8% Information 1.9% Financial Activities 6.3% Professional and Business Services 14.4% Education and Health Services 16.3% Leisure and Hospitality 9.4% Other Services 3.9% Government 14.6% Employment By Industry United States, Thousands, July 2020
  • 14. 13 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 Employment Growth by Metropolitan Area Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, June 2019 to June 2020 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics In June, 307 metropolitan areas had over- the-year decreases in nonfarm payroll employment and 82 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment decreases occurred in New York-Newark- Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (-1,549,100), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (-650,400), and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL- IN-WI (-466,800). The largest over-the-year percentage losses in employment occurred in Atlantic City- Hammonton, NJ (-29.2 %), Ocean City, NJ (-28.7 %), and Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI (-26.5 %). Over the year, nonfarm employment declined in all of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more.
  • 15. 14 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% White Black or African American Asian Jul-19 Jun-20 Jul-20 Employment Status by Race and Educational Attainment Household Data, Seasonally Adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment by Race 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college or associate degree Bachelor's degree and higher Jul-19 Jun-20 Jul-20 Unemployment by Educational Attainment
  • 16. 15 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12 Jun-14 Dec-15 Jun-17 Dec-18 Jun-20 Thousands Job Openings Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings United States, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period, Millions The number of job openings increased to 5.9 million on the last business day of June. Hires decreased to 6.7 million, but was still the second highest level in series history, behind May 2020. These changes in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. June 2020: 5.9 million Peak in January 2019: 7.5 million
  • 17. 16 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession -35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20 Real Gross Domestic Product (%) 15-Year Average Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product United States, Quarterly Change from Preceding Period, Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates, Based on Chained 2009 Dollars GDP decreased at an annual rate of 32.9% in Q2 2020, bringing the 15-year average down to 1.1%, from 1.7%. The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as "stay-at-home" orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses.
  • 18. 17 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession $12.0 $14.5 $17.0 $19.5 $22.0 2Q05 2Q06 2Q07 2Q08 2Q09 2Q10 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 2Q19 2Q20 Real Gross Domestic Product ($) Gross Domestic Product - Total United States, Trillions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Quarterly Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
  • 19. 18 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% Jul-05 Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Jan-19 Jul-20 CPI All Items Rent of Primary Residence Consumer Price Index and Rent of Primary Residence United States, All Items, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change, 1982-84=100 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0% for the 12 months ending July, a larger increase than the 0.6% rise for the period ending June. The index for all items less food and energy increased 1.6% over the last 12 months. Despite increasing in July, the energy index fell 11.2% over the last 12 months. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research
  • 20. 19 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Corporate Profits Compensation of Employees Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Corporate Profits and Compensation of Employees Includes Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Quarterly, Index 1954=100 “The trends of the two series tend to track each other over several decades, reflecting the general growth of the economy. The past decade and a half seems to be different, though. Never have corporate profits outgrown employee compensation so clearly and for so long.” - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 9, 2018
  • 21. 20 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index Home Price Growth United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The novel coronavirus has finally put the brakes on home price growth. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller’s national home price index posted a 4.5% annual gain in May, down from 4.6% a month earlier. For the 12th consecutive month, Phoenix led the 20-City Composite posting a 9.0% annual gain. Seattle and Tampa followed reporting a 6.8% and 6.0% annual gain, respectively. - Yahoo Finance
  • 22. 21 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession 60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 YTD20 Homeownership Rate Source: U.S. Census Bureau; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Homeownership Rate United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period The homeownership rate of 67.9% was 3.8% higher than Q2 2019 (64.1%) and 2.6% higher than Q1 2020 (65.3%). The highest level since 2008. There was a large increase in the number of homeowners combined with a very large drop in the number of renters. One of the largest changes in both numbers on record. Households under 35 jumped by 4.2% year-over-year, ages 35-44 were up by 4.9%.
  • 23. 22 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 22 Homeownership and Household Formation United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Millions, Annual, End of Period -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18 2Q19 4Q19 2Q20 Thousands Owner-Occupied Housing Units Renter-Occupied Housing Units Source: U.S. Census Bureau; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis There was a large increase in the number of homeowners combined with a very large drop in the number of renters. One of the largest changes in both numbers on record. Owner-occupied housing units made up 61.2% of total housing units (+4,771 during the quarter), while renter-occupied units made up 29.0% of the inventory (-2,381).
  • 24. 23 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 30.0% 42.0% 54.0% 66.0% 78.0% 90.0% All ages Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over Previous Peak (2004) Q2 2020 Homeownership Rate by Age of Householder United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period Source: U.S. Census Bureau First-time home buyers continued to drive demand. The big gains during 2020 have come from young households. Households under 35 jumped by 4.2% year-over-year, while ages 35-44 were up by 4.9%. As millennials begin to make lifestyle decisions, such as getting married and having children, this percentage will continue to increase.
  • 25. 24 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 30.0% 42.0% 54.0% 66.0% 78.0% 90.0% U.S. Non-Hispanic White Black Alone All Other Races Hispanic (of any race) Previous Peak (2004) Q2 2020 Homeownership Rate by Race and Ethnicity of Householder United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Annual, End of Period Source: U.S. Census Bureau Although homeownership rates for other racial groups have largely recovered since the 2008 housing crisis, black homeownership continues to decline. Last year marked the fifth consecutive annual increase in the Hispanic homeownership rate, the only demographic with five consecutive years of gains.
  • 26. 25 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 S&P 500 (^GSPC) Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices; National Bureau of Economic Research Stock Prices: S&P 500 Currency in USD, Adjusted Close, Monthly, Beginning of Period At the end of July, the S&P 500 had nearly returned to levels seen prior to the February peak, when investors started dumping shares in advance of the coronavirus pandemic. Stocks have been boosted by low interest rates, trillions of dollars in stimulus, and better-than- expected corporate earnings.
  • 27. 26 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 $0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0 $3.5 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Excess Reserves Required Reserves U.S. Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Trillions “Analysts were caught off guard in April when the banks said they were setting aside billions of extra dollars for potential losses, hammering their first-quarter earnings. Several banking executives said they expected to set aside more money for bad loans in the second quarter than they did in the first.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • 28. 27 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 U.S. Recession St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index United States, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period, Version 2.0 The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index attempts to measure financial market stress by combining many indicators into a single index number. One type of risk prominent in the 2008-2009 financial crisis is once again present—in the current COVID-19 novel coronavirus crisis. It is the inability of many financial institutions to secure funding to finance their short-term liabilities, known as liquidity risk.
  • 29. 28 U.S. Economic Overview Q2 2020 U.S. Recession $0.0 $25.0 $50.0 $75.0 $100.0 $125.0 $150.0 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 WTI Crude ($) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; National Bureau of Economic Research; Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma Dollars per Barrel, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, End of Period “Global oil demand is being destroyed as the coronavirus forces people around the world to remain indoors and avoid all unnecessary travel. U.S. oil demand has now fallen to 14.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in data going back to 1990 and a drop of more than 30% from pre-crisis levels.” - Bloomberg, April 9, 2020
  • 30. ARBOR.COM • 1.800.ARBOR.10 About Us Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ABR) is a nationwide real estate investment trust and direct lender, providing loan origination and servicing for multifamily, single-family rental (SFR) portfolios, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial real estate assets. Headquartered in Uniondale, New York, Arbor manages a multibillion-dollar servicing portfolio, specializing in government-sponsored enterprise products. Arbor is a Fannie Mae DUS® lender and Freddie Mac Optigo Seller/Servicer. Arbor’s product platform also includes CMBS, bridge, mezzanine and preferred equity loans. Rated by Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, Arbor is committed to building on its reputation for service, quality and customized solutions with an unparalleled dedication to providing our clients excellence over the entire life of a loan. The research contained in this report should not be construed as a solicitation to and/or trade. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice; all information is subject to change. Arbor, its members, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on the content contained herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.